3/13: Miami Rolls, Free Agency, etc.

Greetings! Let's go.

• The Miami Heat won their 19th consecutive game last night, downing the hometown Atlanta Hawks 98-81. The scariest thing about this game is that, for the second straight outing, Lebron James was held "in check" with 15/7/7 and the Heat still dominated throughout. They forced 22 turnovers by the Hawks and created 27 points off of those turnovers to use as the X-factor in the win. Dwyane Wade led all scorers with 23 points, and he's playing at a really high level right now. Next on the docket for Miami? A 5-game road trip... which sounds imposing, but the only "quality" opponent is Boston.
• NFL Free Agency is in full swing, so let's recap the big deals from day #1. In the biggest hometown move, Tony Gonzalez announced that he was returning for another year with the Falcons and spurning retirement. This isn't the "impact" move of some of the others across the league, but it's huge news for Atlanta, who needed him as their #3 receiving threat in a big way. All-in for the Super Bowl. Mike Wallace headlined the day by agreeing to a 5-year, $65 million deal with Miami, and the Dolphins suddenly have locked up two receivers (their own guy in Brian Hartline being the other) to massive deals. No more excuses for Ryan Tannehill in his second year. Danell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger are leaving the champion Ravens. Ellerbe joins Wallace in Miami for a 5-year, $35 million deal, and Kruger is headed to Cleveland for 5 years, $40 million. The crazy thing about those deals is that neither guy was even a full-time starter for an average Baltimore defense. Exposure does wonders. Finally, Martellus Bennett is headed to Chicago on a 4-year deal worth a reported $20 million. I've always been in the tank for Bennett, and he now gets a headlining offensive role in Chicago as the #2 pass target (after Brandon Marshall).
• Dwight Howard returned to Orlando for the first time in an LA uniform last night... and promptly tied his own NBA record for free-throw attempts with 39. Jacque Vaughn decided to implement "Hack-a-Dwight", but it failed on this night, as Howard converted 25 of his 39 attempts (64%) in finishing with 39 points and 16 rebounds. It was a spectacle in Orlando, but Dwight seemed to actually raise his level in this one, and LA looked good. 
• There were also some semi-surprising cuts in the NFL yesterday. Philly shipped Nnamdi Asomugha out, ending the "Dream Team" (lol) run once and for all. What a shame. The biggest shock, however, was that Buffalo parted ways with starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is a wild one because it seems like yesterday that the Bills were locking him up to that huge, long-term deal, and this cut leaves them with only Tarvaris Jackson on the roster. Is this the landing spot for Geno Smith? 

What to watch for on Wednesday...

• Noon - NCAAB - Big East Tournament 2nd Round - Cincinnati vs. Providence (ESPN) - There are very few things better than a Noon tip at the Garden. This is awesome. 
• 2:00 - NCAAB - Big East Tournament 2nd Round - #19 Syracuse vs. Seton Hall (ESPN) - Syracuse needs to make a mini-run in the tournament to re-establish themselves in a big way. 
• 7:00 - MLB - Braves @ Marlins (Fox Sports South) - Spring training! They'll be no shortage of baseball to watch in the next 7 months...
• 7:00 - NCAAB - Big East Tournament 2nd Round - St. John's vs. Villanova (ESPN2) - 'Nova is probably in the tournament right now, but they can't afford an early exit.
• 7:30 - NBA - Lakers @ Hawks (SportSouth) - Both teams are on a back-to-back here, but coming off very different results. Atlanta will also be without Zaza Pachulia, so we're sure to see Johan Petro deployed on Dwight Howard. That should be fun. 
• 8:00 - NBA - Jazz @ Thunder (ESPN) - Utah needs every win they can get, but this isn't that spot. Good luck. 
• 9:00 - NCAAB - Big East Tournament 2nd Round - Rutgers vs. #24 Notre Dame (ESPN2) - The night cap at MSG. 
• 10:30 - NBA - Knicks @ Nuggets (ESPN) - New York's prize after scoring 63 points in Golden State the other night? A road trip to Denver!

Enjoy!

2013 MLB Preview #21: New York Mets

Greetings! Name that outfield...

LINEUP
Projected Starters - John Buck (C), Ike Davis (1B), Daniel Murphy (2B), Ruben Tejada (SS), David Wright (3B), Lucas Duda (LF), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (CF), Mike Baxter/Colin Cowgill (RF)

Just look at that outfield. Lucas Duda could hit 30 HR's and I won't dispute that, but they're starting Kirk Nieuwenhuis and either Mike Baxter or Colin Cowgill. In the same lineup! Yikes. At least they have David Wright, who was absolutely outstanding last season, and is one of the best 10-15 players in the league. Wright had a top-5 WAR (7.8) in baseball last season, when he went for a .391 OBP, .492 slugging, 21 homers, 15 steals, and plus-defense at the demanding position of 3rd base. He's a monster, and that's all there is to it. After that, the questions obviously begin. Ike Davis should be their 2nd-best hitter this season, as the highly-pedigreed 1st baseman broke out of a 1st-half disaster by finishing with 32 homers and a .462 slugging. He needs to fix his on-base woes, but they need him to repeat the power as well. Daniel Murphy is an all-batting-average guy with zero pop, John Buck is a pop-guy with zero batting average, and they can't expect much from Tejada. This is a bad offense, no matter how you slice it.

ROTATION
Projected - Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Shaun Marcum, Dillon Gee, Matt Harvey

R.A. Dickey isn't walking through that door. The knuckler was tremendous over the last two seasons, and they'll feel his absence in a big way. The key to this season for the pitching staff (and the entire team IMO) is Johan Santana. He showed flashes of fantastic performance (including the no-no last year) before submarining down the stretch, and if he's healthy, he's the #1 they need. The question is: how many good innings can they get out of him? After that, Niese actually made a big step last season, posting a 3.40 ERA in 190 innings, and he's a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Mets. Marcum has always been a favorite of mine, as a guy with a sub-4.00 career ERA. He had some injury issues last year with Milwaukee (under 130 IP), but if he's healthy, he's good. Harvey is another X-factor, as the young arm had a sky-rocketing K-rate of over 10 K/9 last year, which is insane for a starting pitcher. He had a 2.73 ERA in about 60 innings, and if he can even throw 150 innings at that rate, he's very valuable.

BULLPEN
Projected - Frank Francisco/Bobby Parnell (closer-by-committee), Brandon Lyon, Pedro Feliciano, Latroy Hawkins, Elvin Ramirez

Eesh. Frank Francisco is... bad. He had a 5.53 ERA last year, and while his peripherals say he wasn't as bad as that (3.90 FIP), he's already injured, and he probably will battle that all year. Parnell is a 100-MPH fastball guy, and he's certainly the better pitcher... if someone could just tell that to management. Oh look, it's Brandon Lyon and Latroy Hawkins! Yikes...

OVERVIEW

The lineup is bad, and it greatly limits the upside of the club. If Santana and Marcum were healthy and Harvey duplicated last year's performance, this would be a really, really good rotation, but that's a lot of "ifs". Frankly, it's one of the least exciting teams in all of baseball.

PREDICTION

79-83, 4th in NL East

2013 MLB Preview #22: Baltimore Orioles

Greetings! Remember when the Orioles were good?

LINEUP
Projected Starters - Matt Wieters (C), Chris Davis (1B), Brian Roberts/Alexi Casilla (2B), JJ Hardy (SS), Manny Machado (3B), Nate McLouth/Nolan Reimold (LF), Adam Jones (CF), Nick Markakis (RF)

Everything went right for Baltimore last year, but outside of Wieters and Jones, the lineup wasn't as good as you may have thought. Wieters is one of the best catchers in the league, and even if he never hits for average (career .260), he takes walks, has power (23 HR in 2012), and defends at a high level at the catcher spot. Adam Jones is one of the best outfielders in baseball, coming off a season where he hit 32 homers, stole 16 bases, and slugged over .500. His defense is a point of contention (bad by some metrics, but good by the eye), but there's no question that he's a build-around type of player. JJ Hardy and Chris Davis provide big-time power at the expense of batting average, and that won't change. Hardy is injury-prone, but they could shift Machado (a mega-prospect) to SS if he goes down. Davis hit 33 homers last year, and he could easily repeat that performance. There was a time when Markakis was a big-time prospect, but he's settled into being a guy who hits for big-time average (career .295 hitter) but with mediocre power and other skills. The upside of the lineup is probably on the shoulders of Machado (who performed very well after coming up last year) and the McLouth/Reimold combo. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

ROTATION
Projected - Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel, Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman, Zach Britton/Brian Matusz

I have no idea how Baltimore won 90+ games with their pitching staff last year... and they didn't upgrade it. Jason Hammel led the team in WAR last year (2.9), but his performance (3.43 ERA, almost 9 K/9) is probably unsustainable. Chen led the team in innings with over 192, and is probably the "safest" bet in the rotation for at least average production. I expect him to have an ERA around 4 with 160 Ks or so over 200 innings. After that, the question marks abound. Chris Tillman was unbelievably good down the stretch, but still only finished with a 4.25 FIP (vs. 2.93 ERA) in 86 innings, making him a prime regression candidate for this year. Gonzalez, Britton, and Matusz all have upside, but have exactly nothing as far as proven talents, etc.

BULLPEN
Projected - Jim Johnson (closer), Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day, Luis Ayala, Troy Patton, Tommy Hunter

This is where Baltimore won games. They had absurd records in 1-run games and extra innings, and the bullpen was very good. Johnson saved a remarkable 51 games last season, finishing with a 2.49 ERA despite a laughably low K-rate for a closer (5.39 per 9). He's a good bet to perform well, but not nearly at the level of 2012. Strop and O'Day both greatly outperformed their peripherals with very low (low-2.00's) ERAs, and I'd look for a giant step back overall. If they are a league-average bullpen (and they should be), that greatly limits their upside as a team.

OVERVIEW

76 wins seems awfully low after last season's performance. I'm aware of that. With that said, they got some very, very nice performances from unlikely sources and still only finished with a +7 run differential for the season. Add in the fact that Toronto is much, much better and a rebound from the Red Sox? The tanking begins...

PREDICTION

76-86, 5th in AL East

3/12: NFL Trades, etc.

Greetings!

• There were two big-time player trades in the NFL on Monday. For reference, trades that include big-time players hardly ever happen in the NFL, so two of them in one day is crazy. First, Percy Harvin is headed to Seattle, and it is expected that Seattle is shipping their 2013 1st-rounder to Minnesota in the deal. Harvin is a game-changer when he's on the field, and that's a huge WR upgrade for a Seattle team that needed an outside punch. Secondly, Anquan Boldin is headed to San Francisco in exchange for a 6th-rounder in this year's draft. At first glance, a 6th-rounder seems absurdly cheap, but it's important to remember that Boldin was hitting free agency, so this was basically an admission by Baltimore that they didn't want to ink him, and thus, an attempt to get some sort of value in return. If San Fran can lock him up (they will), that helps a suddenly solid receiving corps with Crabtree, Davis, and a returning Mario Manningham. 
• #1 Gonzaga won the WCC Tournament last night with a 65-51 win over archrival St. Mary's in Las Vegas. Kelly Olynyk (a first-team All-American by any measure) went for 21 points and 12 rebounds, while Elias Harris added 19 points for the Zags in the win. At this point, you'd have to assume that Gonzaga will be getting a #1 seed, if not the #1 overall seed, and they deserve it.
• NBA Roundup - San Antonio snapped a 5-game OKC winning streak with a 105-95 win last night. Tiago Splitter led six players in double-digits with 21 points (and 10 rebounds), as the Spurs shot 53% from the field on the night. Durant and Westbrook combined for 51 points for OKC, but Westbrook had more shots (27) than points (25) and the supporting cast didn't help much. Elsewhere, Utah climbed back to a tie with the Lakers for the 8th spot after a 103-91 win over Detroit in Salt Lake. Mo Williams had 20 points in 26 minutes (a very encouraging sign) and the Jazz got 54 bench points on the night. Finally, the Knicks had a disastrous performance for the ages in a 92-63 loss to Golden State. First of all, scoring 63 points against that porous GSW defense is bad enough, but the Knicks shot 27% from the field on the day (yikes), 5-27 from three (yikes), and got murdered on the boards (59-42) by a team that doesn't strike fear into anyone on that end. Not good. 
• There was a big story surrounding Yankee interest in signing Chipper Jones. My reaction is this: it is not a story that they "want" to sign Chipper. He's not going there. Ever. And especially when Atlanta has a 3rd base situation in flux. Moving on.

What to watch for on Tuesday...

• 7:00 - NCAAB - Big East 1st Round (ESPNU) - South Florida vs. Seton Hall. Nothing screams greatness like two sub-.500 Big East teams in the garden. 
• 7:30 - NBA - Hawks @ Heat (NBATV) - Miami is looking to extend a ridiculous 18-game winning streak, and of course, the Hawks are in the way. Should be a fun one. 
• 9:00 - NCAAB - Horizon League Championship (ESPN) - Wright State and Valparaiso square off for a bid in the tourney, and the Horizon is always an underrated league. 
• 9:00 - NCAAB - Big East 1st Round (ESPNU) - Rutgers vs. Depaul... Riveting!

Enjoy!

2013 MLB Preview #23: Kansas City Royals

Greetings! At least they have Jeff Francoeur (and I still love him)...

LINEUP
Projected Starters - Salvador Perez (C), Eric Hosmer (1B), Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella (2B), Alcides Escobar (SS), Mike Moustakas (3B), Alex Gordon (LF), Lorenzo Cain (CF), Jeff Francoeur (RF), Billy Butler (DH)

When the Royals shipped Wil Myers to Toronto, it was a push to the middle of the table and an "all-in" move on the present over the future. They chose (willingly) to leave Jeff Francoeur in right field, and with all of my bias aside (I love him), he produced a -1.2 FanGraphs WAR last year, which is hilariously bad. I don't believe he's that bad, as he was nearly a 3-win player in 2011, but that's a weak spot. Speaking of weak spots, KC will also struggle in the middle infield, as the Getz/Giavotella will struggle with the bat, and Escobar's only real asset is speed. Other than those three spots, however, the lineup is really, really solid. Billy Butler hit 29 homers and hit for an .883 OPS last season in the DH role, and he's flanked by Alex Gordon, who rode a league-high 51 doubles and plus-defense to 5.9 WAR last season. Salvador Perez is one of the best young catchers in the game, also, as he has a career .810 OPS from the catcher's spot. The offense will likely come-and-go based on the performance of Hosmer and Moustakas. These two have been paired together as "top prospects" for years and the results have been mixed at the MLB level. Moustakas hit 20 homers and had very good defensive numbers last year, but struggled to a sub-.300 OBP, and Hosmer struggled mightily at the plate in his first full season (negative WAR, etc.). I think Hosmer rebounds and becomes a hitting machine (still), but this year's performance is almost fully based on these two guys making a leap.

ROTATION
Projected - James Shields, Ervin Santana, Jeremy Guthrie, Bruce Chen, Wade Davis

If there was one thing that KC needed, it was a front-line starter and they acquired that in Shields. He may not be a top-10 guy in the league, but he's a fringe #1/definite #2 starter and he's a beast. He's thrown at least 200 innings in six straight seasons, and he's struck out 220+ batters in the last two seasons. After that, the drop-off is severe. Ervin Santana has tantalizing stuff, but he's insanely inconsistent and sports a lifetime ERA in the mid-4.00's. Guthrie has very little downside, but his upside his limited by a K-rate in the low-5.00's and a middling ERA. He's a 5th starter masquerading as their #3. Chen is the epitome of mediocre, and Davis, while awesome last year in a relief role, is probably over his head as a starter. It is a good gamble to give him a spot, though.

BULLPEN
Projected - Greg Holland (closer), Aaron Crow, Tim Collins, Everett Teaford, Kelvin Herrera

It's never a good thing when a reliever leads the pitching staff in WAR, but that's what happened with Greg Holland in 2012. He was tremendous in both set-up and closing roles, sporting a 2.96 ERA and striking out over 12 batters per 9 on the season. He's permanently cemented as the closer now, and one of the better options in the AL. Crow and Collins both have really good stuff for set-up guys, and that's a solid tandem at the end of games. This won't be an outright strength, but the back-3 is very, very solid.

OVERVIEW

It's cliche to say that KC is a year away... but they probably are. They need another starter (or two) and their young guys haven't panned out at all. The lineup could be excellent if both Hosmer and Moustakas break out, but any reasonable expectation puts them in the middle-of-the-pack at best.

PREDICTION

74-88, 4th in AL Central

3/11: Tiger, Heat, etc.

Greetings! A lot to catch up on in a short amount of time...

• Tiger Woods got his 76th career tour win with a 2-shot victory over Steve Stricker at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. Tiger was actually up by a wider margin late in the tournament before coasting home, and it's always good to see him playing at this level. The big "story" was that he met with a friend, Steve Stricker, before the tourney to work on putting... and then lit the course on fire. Not a good sign for the Tiger haters...
• The Heat won their 18th straight game with a 105-91 victory over Indiana last night. 18 straight wins is insane, but they looked very, very good again last night, and there appears to be no end in sight. Oh, and Lebron James took only 10 shots, scored only 13 points... and the Heat won by 14 against their biggest Eastern challenger. Good luck. 
• No analysis here, but THE LAKERS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS! LET'S KEEP TALKING ABOUT THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE! 
• If you haven't seen it yet, Deandre Jordan absolutely abused Brandon Knight with a "Dunk of the Year" candidate last night. Check it out here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NTkN2q6sUUk
• #2 Indiana went into Ann Arbor and downed #7 Michigan by a 72-71 tally on Sunday. Cody Zeller converted the game-winner with 13 seconds left, and then disrupted Trey Burke's last-second shot to hold on for the win. Needless to say, I didn't enjoy this one.

What to watch for on Monday...

• 7:00 - NCAAB - Sun Belt Championship (W. Kentucky vs. Florida Intl) - ESPN - It's conference tourney week!
• 7:00 - NCAAB - Southern Conference Championship (Davidson vs. Charleston) - ESPN2 - This is a really nice game actually, with two 24+ win teams.
• 8:30 - NBA - Thunder @ Spurs (NBATV) - What a fantastic game, and it's relegated to NBATV somehow. San Antonio certainly isn't the same team without Parker but, playing at home, they can compete here if they make threes.
• 9:00 - NCAAB - WCC Championship (#1 Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's) - ESPN - This is easily the highest-priority game of the night, with #1 Gonzaga facing their arch-rival for the WCC title. Fantastic stuff.

Enjoy!

3/7: Hoops Roundup, etc.

Greetings!

• The Miami Heat are on an absolute tear. When Lebron James hit the game-winning layup with 3 seconds to go, the Heat finished off their 16th consecutive win, extending their franchise record winning streak. It wasn't the prettiest win (i.e. 1-point home win against Orlando), but Lebron came up huge in the clutch (shocking!) and they sailed away with the streak intact. 
• College Hoops Upsets! #6 Miami fell to a Marcus Georges-Hunt tip-in game winner that gave Georgia Tech a 71-69 win in Coral Gables. It was only the 3rd ACC loss for Miami (who still leads the conference), but this was a shocking one, as GT has struggled this season to a 16-13 overall record with 6-11 in the ACC. Elsewhere, #5 Georgetown fell 67-57 in Philly against Villanova. The biggest culprit in the loss was an uncharacteristic 22 turnovers from the slow-paced Hoyas, and they aren't beating anyone when they do that. Finally, #13 Oklahoma State had the most mild "upset", but they also fell to an unranked opponent in a 87-76 loss to Iowa State. This certainly isn't a bad loss for the Cowboys, as ISU is a bubble tournament team, but giving up 87 points (and 52% shooting) is always a concern. 
• Reportedly, the "Catholic 7" will be leaving the Big East in June. Normally, I take the "let me know when it's all over" approach, but I'm actually glad that they're leaving to form a basketball-centric league. It's why the Big East existed in the first place. 
• In the non-Miami NBA, Atlanta survived a miserable start to the game (8-0 deficit, six straight missed field goals and 4 turnovers) to grab a huge lead against Philly, and then hang on in 4th quarter of a 107-96 victory. Jeff Teague had his best statistical game of the year with 27 points (on 10-15 FG) and 11 assists, but the story of the night was the offensive explosion from Anthony Tolliver (!) who made 5-of-7 threes, 7-of-10 field goals, and finished with 21 points and 8 rebounds. Who knew? Kobe and the Lakers rallied from a 25-point second-half deficit with a 33-9 advantage in the 4th quarter and a 108-102 road win over New Orleans. Kobe finished with 42 points (on 21 shots), 12 assists, and 7 rebounds in another ridiculous performance, but the 25-2 game-ending run by LA is just crazy overall. Speaking of the West playoff race, Utah lost 104-101 in Cleveland, shrinking their lead on the #8 seed over LA to just 1.5 games. The consensus at this point is that LA will make it, but Utah is capable of stepping up and holding them off if they can put it together. 
• Another Yankees injury!?! Mark Teixeira (who all Braves' fans hate) will miss 8-10 weeks after straining his right wrist. This, coupled with Curtis Granderson's absence, will make the Yankee offense pretty ugly in April, and further facilitate my belief that they're going to finish in the bottom part of that division. Yikes. 

What to watch for on Thursday...

• 7:00 - NCAAB - Virginia @ Florida State (ESPN) - The Wahoos really, really need a road win on their resume, even against a mediocre FSU team. 
• 8:00 - NBA - Thunder @ Knicks (TNT) - Two of the more entertaining offenses in the league face off. I have no idea how NY is going to defend either Westbrook or Durant, but that should be worth the price of admission in itself. 
• 9:00 - NCAAB - #22 Wisconsin @ #10 Michigan State (ESPN) - Really fun match-up here. Wisconsin is scuffling a bit (even losing at home this week), but these two will play an all-out war and it'll probably be in the 50's. Enjoy. 
• 9:00 - NCAAB - #19 Oregon @ Colorado (ESPN2) - Really tough game for Oregon going on the road to Boulder. Good test. 
• 10:30 - NBA - Clippers @ Nuggets (TNT) - LA is better than Denver... but not in the Pepsi Center. I'm looking forward to the Lawson/Paul duel though.

Enjoy!