Weekend Football Preview (11/30-12/2)

Greetings! Let's take a look at the football action that's on the way this weekend... as usual, it comes in chronological order...

FRIDAY

• 7:00 - MAC Championship Game - #21 N. Illinois vs. #17 Kent State (ESPN2) - This is actually not a bad game at all. Both teams are 11-1 and undefeated in the MAC, which is a perennially underrated  league. 
• 8:00 - Pac-12 Championship Game - #16 UCLA vs. #8 Stanford (FOX) - I love Stanford in the game simply because they are better. They'll push around the Bruins on the line of scrimmage, and David Shaw is on the short list of guys I'd want coaching my college football team. 

SATURDAY

• Noon - #11 Oklahoma @ TCU (ESPN) - This is the least important game that I'll write about on Saturday, but it's something to watch in the early window. Oklahoma has to win here and hope for a Texas win over K-State to sneak into a BCS game, but winning at TCU is no small task.
• 4:00 - SEC Championship Game - #3 Georgia vs. #2 Alabama (CBS) - Easily the biggest game on the slate all weekend, and the winner is playing Notre Dame for the title. When all else fails, I'll side with Nick Saban as a tie-breaker... but here, I don't even think it's a tie. Georgia is mega-talented, but Alabama is the better football team. They have the best O-line, better running backs, and, at worst, a slightly better defense. Give me the Tide. 
• 8:00 - #18 Texas @ #6 K-State (ABC) - If the Wildcats win, they win the Big 12 and play in a BCS game. If they lose, the door is open for Oklahoma.
• 8:00 - ACC Championship Game - #13 Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (ESPN) - The fact that Georgia Tech is playing one game for a BCS bowl bid is laughable. Florida State is better by a mile and they should win, but if for some reason the Tech offense it going, you could see a 7-6 team in the Orange Bowl. 
• 8:15 - Big 10 Championship Game - #12 Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (FOX) - This should be Nebraska vs. Ohio State with OSU playing for a national title berth, but instead, we get multi-loss Wisconsin! 

SUNDAY

• 1:00 - Seahawks @ Bears (FOX) - The best of the early slate IMO. This is the season for Seattle, and they absolutely have to have this game for their playoff chances. Chicago could be without Matt Forte, but the big match-up will be Cutler against two back-up CBs for Seattle. Advantage, Chicago. 
• 1:00 - Vikings @ Packers (FOX) - Remember when I said this was it for Seattle? The same goes for Minnesota. At 6-5 in a rabidly tough division, they have to beat GB here, and they're likely playing without Percy Harvin on the road. I don't like their chances. 
• 1:00 - Pats @ Dolphins (CBS) - I'm only writing about this game at all because New England historically struggles in Miami. That's it. 
• 4:00 - Bucs @ Broncos (FOX) - This is a really nice game as Tampa is playing very well, and they really need this one to stay afloat in the Wild Card race. Denver is flying under the radar still, and I don't get it, but I like Peyton and the boys here. 
• 4:25 - Steelers @ Ravens (CBS) - This is all about whether Ben plays. If he does, I think I actually like Pittsburgh, but if he doesn't, Baltimore should be a 2-touchdown favorite. That's how bad Charlie Batch is. 

Enjoy!

Tommy Hanson/Jordan Walden Deal

Greetings! This gets its own post due to general busy times today...

Tommy Hanson is a member of the LA Angels. The former prized prospect of the Braves was shipped in a 1-for-1 deal for fire-throwing reliever Jordan Walden. My first inclination is one of sadness to see Tommy Hanson go, simply because I was all in on Hanson when he arrived in Atlanta from the minors. There was legitimate debate about who was the team's top prospect between him and Heyward (which seems funny now), and he had all the look of a #1 starter with top-end stuff matched with high-end velocity. Then, he posted a 2.89 ERA and a 2.6 Fangraphs WAR in just 21 starts as a rookie, and everything was looking up. That was followed up by two solid seasons with mid-3's ERAs and solid strikeout numbers, showing that, even though he may not have been a #1, he was definitely a #2-type pitcher... until 2012. In 2012, his velocity dipped to under 90 mph on his fastball, and when that happened, his ERA climbed to 4.48 with a FIP of 4.54. Things were even worse in the 2nd half of the season, as Hanson posted an ERA of 5.69 in 13 starts after the All-star break.

Is Tommy Hanson a lost cause? I'd actually say no. All indications are that his shoulder is a serious problem and the likely reason for the velocity decline (and the resulting decline in overall effectiveness). If it was miraculously fixed or Hanson was able to have surgery and give it time to fully recover, he could be a very good pitcher again. That said, he was due $4 million+ in arbitration this season, and on a team that already employs Tim Hudson, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Julio Teheran, Paul Maholm, Randall Delgado, and Brandon Beachy, that is simply too much money to be paying for the right to roster (and rehab) Tommy Hanson.

The Braves receive Jordan Walden in return, and he's also a really interesting case study. First off, Walden is making peanuts financially, so the Braves save a great deal of money. Secondly, Walden has a career FIP of 2.80 and a career ERA of 3.06 in 114.2 innings. In short, he's a very good relief pitcher who's value fell for no reason other than he lost his closer job to Ernesto Frieri. Walden has high-end stuff with a fastball in the upper 90's, and it's basically unfair to trot out him, Venters, and Kimbrel at the back-end of the bullpen.

Basically, this is a steal for Atlanta. There was a real possibility of a straight give-away for Hanson (or at least we thought), so to get a real piece who is young and has upside is tremendous. This paves the way for a potential trade of Eric O'Flaherty (outlined here by Ben Duronio of Capitol Avenue Club) and a potential even cheaper bullpen than last year.

All hail Frank Wren... but I also wish the best for Tommy Hanson and if he's healthy at all, this is a nice haul for the Angels.

11/29: BJ Upton (!!!) and More...

Greetings! You know what the lead story is...

• BJ Upton is an Atlanta Brave. 5 years and $75 million is the cost of the deal, and Atlanta has a 28-year-old center fielder. Overall, this is a win for both sides. $15 million a year is probably a slight overpayment, but if you take a look at previous numbers combined with age, Upton could also be a decent value. He's coming off a "bad" season where he posted only a .298 OBP (by far the worst of his career), but he managed to hit a career-high 28 homers and steal 31 bases which helped to hold his value with a 3.3 FanGraphs WAR. There are concerns about his plate discipline that are 100% based on last year's season, but there's also reason to believe that the norm for Upton is somewhere in the .320 OBP range, and that's more than acceptable given his premium position, defense, and power. In addition, a lot has been made of Upton's penchant for striking out, as he has K'd 150+ times for four straight years, but it's almost as if people have forgotten that Michael Bourn struck out 155 times last year. This isn't a worry when you factor in that a) he isn't a leadoff hitter, and b) he has power. The best part about this signing is that Atlanta has locked up Upton for his peak seasons between ages 28 and 32, which should assure that he's capable of playing above-average defense in CF for the entirety of the deal and that there's a small sliver of hope that he could actually be better in Atlanta than he was in Tampa with ballpark factors and bounce-back potential in his ability to get on-base. One final note surrounds Upton's durability. Something like "playing in all of your team's games" gets overlooked.... until you have someone that doesn't.... but Upton has played in 145+ games in 5 straight seasons, and that helps with "safety" concerns. Basically, I wish Atlanta could've gotten him for $60-65 million as I had opined for previously, but this isn't a disastrously huge contract, and I think Upton fits nicely next to Jason Heyward in the outfield for the next 5 years. 

On to everything else... 

• Louisville is headed to the ACC for 2014 in a move made to replace newly-departed Maryland. My question is: did the ACC actually make out better here? I absolutely disdain all of the conference alignments at this point, but given that they aren't going away, isn't Louisville a better commodity in basketball and football than Maryland? Strong by the ACC, who now has a 3rd basketball power to go with UNC and Duke, as well as the current "best in the Big East" football program. 
• NBA Roundup - The Atlanta Hawks won their 6th straight decision over the Bobcats in Philips Arena last night. The result was too close for comfort (94-91) but it's another win. Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Lou Williams had 17 a piece in the victory. Washington got a win! The Wiz beat the struggling Blazers 84-82, and that's all you need to know. There was a massive fight in the Celtics/Nets game that saw Rajon Rondo and Kris Humphries go at it. There will be a suspension coming for Rondo and Boston lost the game 95-83. Double whammy. And finally, OKC spoiled the return of James Harden with a 120-98 domination of Houston. Harden struggled mightily, shooting just 3 of 19, but the story was Kevin Durant and his 37 points on 13 of 22 shooting. 
• College Hoops! - Duke got the headline victory of the night over Ohio State by a 73-68 tally. After trailing by 8 at the half, the Blue Devils blitzed OSU in the 2nd frame, scoring 50 points and seizing the victory. Also, OSU was held to just 34% shooting on the night, and Mason Plumlee was easily the player of the game with 21 points and 17 boards for Duke. For reference, Duke has now beaten the #2 (Louisville), #3 (Kentucky), and #4 (OSU) teams in the country when they played them, and have the best resume in the country. Elsewhere, Michigan State was upset down in Miami as they fell 67-59 to the Canes and Illinois held serve 75-62 over a game Georgia Tech squad by making 14 of 28 threes in the contest. To recap, the ACC/Big 10 challenge.... It split itself 6-6. Good job, good effort. 
• Is Aroldis Chapman headed to the rotation for the Reds? It looks that way after Cincy signed Jonathan Broxton for 3 years and $21 million. It was inevitable that they would move Chapman to the rotation simply because the value is so much greater in that spot, and that's the right move. However, signing the mediocre Broxton to a 3-year contract at big money? That's an awful move that I'm sure Dusty Baker was the influence on. Good luck with that.

What to watch for on Thursday (in chronological order)...

• 7:00 - NCAAB - #8 Kentucky @ Notre Dame (ESPN2) - Gotta love the blatant rip-off that is the SEC/Big East challenge! Anyway, this is a nice game as the very, very young Kentucky squad has to go on the road here. 
• 7:30 - NCAAF - Louisville @ Rutgers (ESPN) - This is the de facto Big East championship game for a spot in the BCS. Therefore, it actually matters.
• 8:00 - NBA - Spurs @ Heat (TNT) - This is the best game of the NBA season so far and I mean that. A potential Finals preview (the one I picked, in fact) and a battle of 12-3 vs. 10-3 in the record book. It's a must-see and it's really a shame to be going against the best Thursday Night NFL game of the year. 
• 8:20 - NFL - Saints @ Falcons (NFL Network) - The aforementioned best of the NFL's Thursday night slate so far, and it happens to be in my backyard. New Orleans has absolutely owned the Falcons, even during the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan resurgence, but I like Atlanta in the game at home. Will be toggling back and forth with Spurs/Heat all night, but this is the main focus in the ATL.
• 9:00 - NCAAB - Marquette @ #7 Florida (ESPN2) - This is the better game of the two because a) Marquette is better than Notre Dame, and b) I actually think Florida is the favorite in the SEC. 
• 10:30 - NBA - Nuggets @ Warriors (TNT) - Fast-paced and a million points here. Perfect late game for entertainment purposes. 

Enjoy!

11/28: Indiana, Ruiz, etc.

Greetings! This will be a quick one so don't blink...

• College hoops! #1 Indiana absolutely blasted UNC 83-59 in Bloomington last night. Cody Zeller (the preseason POY) had 20 points and 8 boards for the Hoosiers as they went on a massive run to end the 1st half and start the 2nd. It's too early to bury UNC, but it was a nice win for Indiana. Elsewhere, #3 Michigan moved to 6-0 with a home win over #18 NC State. Trey Burke led the way for Big Blue with 18 points and 11 assists. I love living in a world where UM hoops is a power.
• NBA! Kobe Bryant scored 40 points against the Pacers last night... unfortunately, the rest of the Lakers only scored 33 points combined, and LA fell 79-77 at home. Horrible games from Gasol (2-9), Jamison (1-7), Metta (1-8) and Darius Morris (0-6) did in the Lakers. Kevin Love led Minnesota to a win in Sacramento with a 23-point/24-rebound performance. And Houston beat Toronto 117-101 behind James Harden who had 24 points and 12 assists, while Omer Asik added 18 boards for the Rockets. 
• Phillies C Carlos Ruiz was suspended 25 games for amphetamine use yesterday. This is the first 25-game suspension I can recall, and one to watch for for a bad Phillies offense going into next year. 

What to watch for on Wednesday...

• 7:30 - NBA - Bobcats @ Hawks (SportSouth) - The Bobcats lost by a million on Monday night, and now they come to Philips Arena to take on a superior Hawks team. Best of luck. 
• 7:30 - NCAAB - #13 Michigan State @ Miami (ESPN) - Tom Izzo!
• 8:00 - NBA - Rockets @ Thunder (NBA-TV) - James Harden returns to OKC. Insert storyline here. 
• 9:00 - NCAAB - Georgia Tech @ #22 Illinois (ESPN2) - Tech is showing signs of life under Brian Gregory but this is a tough spot in Champaign. I think Illinois cruises. 
• 9:30 - NCAAB - #4 Ohio St. @ #2 Duke (ESPN) - Easily the game of the day pitting two top-5 perennial powers against each other. Duke has so much experience/talent returning this year that they're a legit national title contender. Ohio State brings back Craft and Thomas along with a youth invasion, and that's also a team to watch. 

Enjoy!

11/27: Longoria, NY Hoops, etc.

Greetings!

• Evan Longoria and the Rays are stuck with each other for a long time. The all-world third baseman (who can't stay on field, but that's for another day) inked a $100 million contract over 6 years that will keep him with Tampa through 2022. That's not a misprint. 2022. He already signed what some people have called "the most team-friendly deal in history" coming out of triple-A, but this one will likely end up more on his side as he's making $22 million at age 37. Either way, Tampa's best hitter isn't going anywhere. 
• Monday Night Football wasn't exactly a good match-up last night. The previously 2-8 Panthers up-ended the previously 3-7 Eagles by a score of 30-22. Cam Newton was the best player on the field, scoring 4 touchdowns (2 pass, 2 run) and that was really the story. On the Philly side, the bright spot was certainly the work of backup RB Bryce Brown, who got the start in place of the injured Shady McCoy and ran the ball 19 times for 178 yards and 2 scores. Impressive. 
• In the Association last night, the Battle of New York led the way. Brooklyn outlasted the Knicks 96-89 in overtime in a make-up of the previously scheduled season-opener. Brook Lopez led the Nets in scoring with 22 points while adding 11 rebounds, and Deron Williams put up a 16-point/14-dime effort in support. On the New York side, it was a tail of Raymond Felton's poor shooting as he shot 3-19 including a stretch where he took 5 shots in 7 possessions in the 4th quarter as the lead slipped away. Carmelo Anthony was superb with 35 points and 13 rebounds, and Tyson Chandler had his best offensive game of the year with 28 points (on 12-13 FG) and 10 boards. It simply wasn't enough. 
• Elsewhere in the league: San Antonio obliterated the now 0-12 Wizards 118-92. No one played more than 26 minutes for the Spurs and the game wasn't this close. Milwaukee rallied from a 27-point deficit to get a 93-92 road win in Chicago. This was a non-typical Bulls effort in that they got blitzed 30-12 in the 4th quarter with porous defense. Utah went to 6-0 at home with a 105-103 win over a game Nuggets team. Al Jefferson led the game in scoring with 28, but Derrick Favors' 19 points and 7 boards in 24 minutes off the bench keyed the win for the Jazz. And finally (and most hilariously), the Thunder/Bobcats game last night was an absolute massacre. OKC led 64-24 at the half, and 79-25 early in the 3rd quarter before taking their foot off of the gas. Neither of those scores are misprints and things were as ugly as humanly possible for Charlotte. The Bobcats shot 22% in the 1st half and 29% for the game, while allowing OKC (typically a one-on-one type of offensive team) to assist on 31 of 40 field goals. I could list stats for days on this one, but just know that it was as bad as it sounds. 

What to watch for on Tuesday (in chronological order)...

• 7:00 - NBA - Mavericks @ Sixers (NBA-TV) - Dallas is playing without Dirk, Philly may be without Andrew Bynum indefinitely (insert laughter here)... Must-see TV!
• 7:30 - NCAAB - #18 NC State @ #3 Michigan (ESPN) - The ACC/Big 10 challenge is here and the match-ups are awesome this year. This is the opener for ESPN and Michigan is a legitimate national title threat for the first time in 20 years. I'm not giddy at all. 
• 9:30 - NCAAB - #14 North Carolina @ #1 Indiana (ESPN) - Two of the most storied programs ever and one of them is #1 in the country. The difference this year is that its Indiana. Cody Zeller is the real deal. 

Enjoy!

11/26: Turkey Weekend Football Wrap

Greetings! Let's get right to it...

COLLEGE

• Notre Dame will meet the winner of Georgia/Alabama for the national title. The Irish squeaked out a 22-13 win over USC in LA on Saturday thanks to Matt Barkley's absence, and some stout defense. The most hilarious decision of the day for me was Lane Kiffin going for it on 4th-and-goal down two scores with 3 minutes to play. Hey Lane, kick the field goal! In the other side of the national title match-up, both Georgia and Alabama absolutely housed their in-state rivals. Neither game was at any point competitive, and both sides are gearing up for next week's showdown. 
• Ohio State finished the season undefeated and untied. A 26-21 win over Michigan ended their "magical" probation season at 12-0 and they did so in pretty strong fashion. I thought the work of Al Borges was the undoing for Michigan, as he refused to let Denard Robinson attempt even one pass on the day, allowing OSU to stack the box with 9 and 10 guys on every 2nd-half snap, and he continued to hand the ball to the stable of bad running backs instead of deploying Gardner and Robinson together. I'm not really ready to talk about this yet. 
• Florida scored 24 4th-quarter points to up-end Florida State 37-26 in the other big game of the day. The Gators were still actively playing for a national title shot as of kick-off, but the Notre Dame win shut them out. At any rate, it was an impressive burst late for them, and that's a young team who will be a title favorite next year. 
• Oregon housed Oregon State 48-24 on the road in the Civil War. This is a wildly impressive win as the Beavers are a good football team, but Oregon is the 2nd best team in the country for me, even if they could never be ranked as such. 
• Elsewhere! Nebraska eeked past Iowa on Friday to hold off Michigan in the race to the Big 10 Title game. Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma in Bedlam by a crazy 51-48 OT margin. That may have been the best game of the day. Stanford won the Pac-12 North by beating UCLA 35-17... only to set-up a rematch of the same game on Friday of next week for the Pac-12 title. And finally, South Carolina went to Clemson and knocked off the Tigers 27-17 behind 310 yards and 3 TDs from backup QB Dylan Thompson. 

NFL

• It's far too late to review games from Thanksgiving but I'll say this: the rule governing the challenge in the Texans/Lions game may be the worst rule in pro sports. Isn't the point of replay to get the call right?
• The Falcons snuck out of Tampa with a 24-23 win over the Bucs yesterday. Matt Ryan threw for 353 yards and led the Falcons on the game-winning 4th quarter drive to seal it. This was the most impressive win for Atlanta in a while, and they now are in full control of the NFC South.
• Jay Cutler returned and led Chicago to a 28-10 win over Minnesota. Matt Forte left the game with injury for Chicago and that's a big concern, but Michael Bush stepped in, and the defense really led the way to the victory by holding Minny down all day. 
• The Pittsburgh Steelers turned the ball over eight times yesterday. No surprise, they lost that football game. Charlie Batch threw 3 picks, and their skill guys combined for 5 fumbles in the 20-14 loss. The hilarious part is that they were in the game to the very end even with this performance. Paging Ben Roethlisberger...
• Andy Luck and the Colts are 7-4... Just thought I'd point that out...
• Ray Rice converted a 4th-and-29 scramble to keep the game-tying drive alive for Baltimore, and the Ravens won the game in overtime in San Diego. What a ridiculous play by an elite player, and the Ravens simply won't die. 
• Colin Kaepernick! Jim Harbaugh elected to go with the young QB over Alex Smith in this one and it paid off with a 31-21 road win over New Orleans. Kaepernick went 16-25 for 231 yards and a TD with only 1 INT, and he also added 27 yards on the ground. It was a very efficient game, and he let the defense do the work for SF as they returned 2 Drew Brees INT's for touchdowns. 
• And finally, the Giants blitzed the Packers 38-10 last night. It was an utterly dominant performance from the start, and after Aaron Rodgers hit Jordy Nelson for a 61-yard TD pass in the 1st quarter, the Packers offense fell silent. Eli threw for 249 yards and 3 TDs with Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw adding one TD each in the victory. 

Enjoy!

Beat Ohio.

Greetings, everyone! It's a great day to Beat Ohio. I won't subject you to a massive preview post (see this effort from Brian over at MgoBlog if you desire one: http://mgoblog.com/content/preview-ohio-state-2012), but I'll give you a couple of points to watch.

• Where is Denard? Is he going to play running back? Any QB? WR? I have no idea, and neither do you, but the more he's out there, the better. 
• Michigan's running backs are a disaster, and this is a game where Al Borges needs to pull out the stops and let Devin Gardner/Denard run the ball.
• Stop Braxton Miller. Stop him.

Prediction? I'm taking Ohio State 27-23, but I don't like it. 

Beat the Buckeyes.