Monday, December 28, 2009

The NBA through a Third....

Greetings all... sorry for the absence.... The schedule isn't allowing alot of intense sports following at the moment.... that said, here's my look at every NBA team at the 1/3 pole of the season.... For the record, these will be in the order I think they'll finish the regular season....


East:


  1. Boston - They are pretty much who we thought they were... Pierce is out for 10 days-ish, and even without him, they put together an impressive effort on Christmas in Orlando... IMO, they are the clear favorite in the East if healthy... the depth is there with semi-quality minutes from Marquis Daniels, Eddie House, and even the fat version of Sheed (when is going to get in shape?!)... and this is the best defensive team in the L.... and we haven't mentioned the consistency of production from Rondo and Allen, or the fact that KG is looking better physically as we go.... They are my pick...



  2. Orlando - Despite the stinkbomb they laid on Christmas to an undermanned Celtics team, they have the most depth of anyone in the conference (and the league really)... I think they probably a move away from being a serious threat to a healthy Celtics team simply because I don't think Vince is the answer, and they have alot of money toiling in Marcin Gortat and Brandon Bass who are both playing little to no rotation minutes right now (Mostly because Ryan Anderson is good... which I've been saying here for years.... thanks to @imryan for that one as well)... Jameer is rounding back into form, and he's their key... We know what Dwight and Rashard are going to do... but I'm of the opinion that Orlando could've won the title last year if Jameer was 100% in the Finals... he wasn't...and they didn't... but the "most talent" award goes to the Magic....



  3. Cleveland - Let me get this out of the way... I think Cleveland is making a move before the deadline... and if they DON'T... that's a mistake... if they play well enough to convince management that they can/will win the title as currently constructed... that's bad news for them because they aren't... the Shaq expiring deal needs to be moved...notice how I didn't refer to him as a player, but as a contract... he's washed up... I'm sorry... and Delonte West is a mess, Jamario Moon is who he is, and they can't guard the pick 'n roll unless Varejao or Hickson is playing center... But....BUT... they have Lebron James... and you don't...which, combined with my thinking that a move is coming (because they can't afford to leave themselves with this roster to try to entice 'Bron to stay)... and they keep the edge on the Hawks....



  4. Atlanta - Not necessarily the "surprise" that most thought they were... this is clearly a better team than last year both on paper, and on the floor... Jamal Crawford has been as good as he can be, fitting in with ball-handling responsibilities, bench scoring, and capable defense in a role that behooves him... Josh Smith has made maybe the greatest leap from season-to-season of anyone in the league (Let me just say this ahead of time, as I have been a detractor), and in my opinion they've done all of this with Joe Johnson taking a small step back this year.... No one in the national media has said this, but if you follow Hawks blogs/beats (aka the people that actually watch every game)... there's a clearly statistical and on-court difference in Joe from last year to this year... The only downside? Marvin Williams is a non-entity... I believe this is official now... 10 points, 5 boards a game isn't worthy of the 5-year mid-level he just signed... that will bite them... but with Josh Smith's leap (the almost extinguishing of ridiculous 3-point bombs, better decision making, and his emergence as an elite passer from the high post), and Mike Woodson continuing to find ways to ALMOST hide Mike Bibby's defensive dreadfulness, and the lack of a 3rd big.... I think this is an actual threat to the Top 3.... would I pick them against Boston or Orlando? No...but Cleveland as constructed? I think I like the Hawks....



  5. Miami - Yikes... the drop-off is enormous here... I'm not a Miami fan...but Dwyane Wade alone gets them the nod over the other also-rans.... Mike Beasley is one of the more efficient/effortless/even weird offensive forces in the league, and while he's a dreadful defender, he gives them a legit 2nd option so Wade doesn't kill himself... Q-Rich was a quality pilfering, the Haslem/JO front-line has been fairly solid, and Wade has another gear that he hasn't had to pull out yet... That said, Joel Anthony isn't an NBA rotation guy...they are dragging out Carlos Arroyo at the point to send a message to Mario Chalmers, and the Daequan Cook/Dorell Wright headcase combo is still there.... Just not enough there to be a serious 1st-round threat unless Wade averages 35-40 a game....



  6. Chicago - I think I'll be the last person to bail on the Bulls... The announcement that Vinny Del Negro is being fired made this easier... they have clearly the best roster of the non-big 4 teams (Miami included) when healthy... Derrick Rose is a matchup nightmare against any of the elite teams except Boston... Ty Thomas is coming back, and Joakim Noah is a top 5-6 center in league (I know this is a non-story lol)... VDN handicaps them with his inability to put together quality units together (I.e. putting John Salmons in positions where he has to create all the offense, playing James Johnson and Taj Gibson together, and the inability to define a role for Kirk Hinrich), but when he's gone, they'll make the "new coach effort" surge... and get them here... The x-factor? Derrick Rose has been a disappointment this year... plain and simple... 17 and 6 from the guy we saw in the '09 playoffs? Shameful almost...



  7. Toronto - Won 4 in a row and 7 of 11.... the defense is looking up a bit (still absolutely dreadful but less so), and all reports have Hedo settling in a bit in the wake of Calderon's injury issues... I see that continuing when Jose returns and despite his lackluster play this year, Hedo can help with ball-handling and decision-making stuff while providing a perimeter scorer they haven't had... Bosh has been a man... 24 and 11 makes him the best non-Duncan/Dirk power forward, and a lock for a max-deal (he was one anyway but he'll deserve it more playing at this level)... We spoke of Calderon earlier... he's the key to me... his confidence looks shaken... and he needs to be more consistent to keep them in the hunt... the Jarrett Jack signing was designed to push him, and provide a stronger, defensive-minded option who can do the things that Calderon doesn't... instead, it's forced him to back off even more... and yes, I enjoy Marco Belinelli and Sonny Weems....



  8. Milwaukee - They were as high as 5 in this particular thought process until they went 3-7 in their last 10 and Brandon Jennings has been a mere mortal lately... Andrew Bogut's play alone has kept them in the playoffs for me (16 and 10 for the year, and numerous 20/15's lately including a huge 31 and 18 games against the Wiz last week)... They still lack consistent wing production from Redd/Ilyasova/Mbah a Moute and the like...and that's the issue for me... and can we have Joe Alexander either traded or getting some burn? I haven't heard an explanation for that... Jennings has hit the wall a bit, but if anyone thought he'd be able to shoot at the level he was shooting for any length of time... I'd judge you a bit... this is still a guy who's main question mark coming into the draft was his outside jump shot who shot 50% from 3 for the first month-plus.... he was bound to return to earth....



  9. New York - I'm almost enjoying watching the Knicks play lately... in fact, if you put a real-life NBA point guard on this team, they'd be in the playoffs... granted, it's the East...but alas... Guys I Like: Gallinari (now averaging 15 and 5 and gaining the confidence that makes him almost unguardable), Jared Jeffries (surprisingly locking people down at 4 positions, and making himself something besides a pure salary dump chip), Larry Hughes (never thought I'd say that but I like him in an unassuming role)... Things I don't: Al Harrington absolutely jacking... Chris Duhon shooting 35% and playing irresponsibly on top of that.... Still not a playoff team, but they're playing D now, and D'Antoni has adjusted his philosophy once he realized he needs an adequate PG.... Late Addition: Nate-Rob was absolutely astounding the other night at Philips... he's their x-factor... play him Mike! You have nothing else!



  10. Detroit - I won't try to defend Joe Dumars' offseason acquisitions... I hated them then... and I hate them now... The Gordon/Charlie V defensive liability combo doesn't make sense to me...but when he unearths Will Bynum from Europe, drafts Jonas Jerebko (who's quietly good), and has kept the team semi-competitive without Hamilton and Prince for alot of the season... I don't enjoy the team make-up... Stuckey isn't a point guard, there isn't a front-court guy who can play offensively outside of Jason Maxiell (who's about 6'6).... Competitive but nothing to write home about...



  11. Washington - Much too talented to be here... but it's crazy how bad they've been... Gil is putting up Gil-like numbers again... but Caron Butler has been a shell ( 17 and 7 on 43%), and they haven't established a way to get the young guys effective time.... Guys like Andray Blatche, Nick Young, Jevale McGee...and even Randy Foye aren't being put in consistent positions that can enhance their talents... and they're minutes are being taken (on a bad team no less) but no-upside vets like Deshawn Stevenson (who is playing 17 minutes per despite averaging under 4 ppg and shooting 25%) and Dominic McGuire... Can't keep going with this current unit...



  12. Charlotte - Couple issues here... 1) Larry Brown.... yes, the good ole fashioned sergeant has reared his head... he's terrible with young guys (he has many), and he quits on guys in half-seasons... 2) No discernable size... Tyson Chandler is effective... but pairing him with Boris Diaw (who isn't a 4), and backing him up with Nazr Mohammed and Diop... ehhhh.... and 3) the DJ/Felton experiment is done... neither is fit to run a team... and they definitely shouldn't be sharing time evenly... DJ has the higher upside, and Felton is gone soon... play the kid Larry...



  13. Philly - Where do you start? Elton Brand has the worst contract in the L right now (and it's just beginning Sixers fans!!!)... Allen Iverson was brought in to... sell tickets?... Especially now when Lou Williams is back wayyy earlier than announced, and they still needs minutes to develop him and Holiday... Marreese Speights is the team's best big... read that again... and they need to rid themselves of the Dalembert contract asap... and we haven't mentioned that Iguodala isn't a #1 guy... On the bright side, Williams and Thaddeus Young have both improved greatly (to the 16 ppg range), and I feel like they've got something in Holiday with the only reservation being that I have no idea how they cultivate Holiday and Williams together...



  14. Indiana - They'd be at least 1 spot higher without the Granger injury... but at the moment.... they're going to Dahntay Jones and Troy Murphy for offense... You can't underestimate how much they need Granger... Hansborough has been surprisingly effective (in my opinion) and I like what they've gotten from Roy Hibbert (gasp), but the Jones/Dunleavy/Ford/Watson combo... just kills me... and by the way... Solomon Jones gets rotation minutes.... I'll stop there...



  15. New Jersey - They're still bad...but the young guys are players that I think they can build with.... You can't mess around with elite talents at Center and Point guard...which is what they have... I feel like this team is miles ahead of their record, but they have soooo many young/inexperienced guys that they just aren't there yet... Brook Lopez is 19/10 right now... The list of young centers that I'd wanna build my team around... Dwight.... (huge break)... then the Bogut/Lopez/Bynum group (maybe Horford too).... he's that good... Williams and CDR? At least solid rotation guys... if they get a marquee FA...they'll be a player next year.... and I honestly feel like they'll be better in the 2nd half than teams like Indy and Philly...but the whole they've dug is too huge...





To the West....








  1. LA Lakers - Quite simply the best team in the L.... Gigantic up front...skilled everywhere...playing elite defense... Kobe is still the guy you want at the end of the game... and Ron-Ron hasn't killed them on or off the court (well, he did just get a concussion at home...hmmmm)... Bynum is healthy and Gasol is as good as he's ever been... their ONLY weakness is at the point...and they had that weakness last year... it didn't matter... This team is so good that Lamar Odom can average 9 and 9... and they still have the league's best record... Odom would be the 2nd or 3rd best guy on most teams in the L....he's coming off the bench, and isn't always on the court at the end of games right now...



  2. Dallas - Huge drop from LA here.... not as big as the Big 4 in the east to everyone else...but huge nonetheless... Dirk is a go-to guy in the class just below Kobe/Bron/Wade (26 and 8 and the only forward since Larry Bird with a chance at 50/40/90 in percentages plus the extra gear to kill teams late)... in fact he's the next guy I'd want the ball in the hands of at the end of a game right now in the league...just ahead of Melo... and that pains me as a reformed Dirk hater... but the real x-factor with them is the perimeter options they can throw at people with Marion and Howard now playing together and Kidd's vet experience with JT's pure scoring... Even scarier? They can play against ANY body in the West sans LA (if they play Gasol and Bynum together) with Dirk at the 5 and throw the Dirk/Marion/Howard/Terry/Kidd lineup at people... that's scary...



  3. San Antonio - Ah the enigma... Duncan is Duncan.... he's my favorite player in the league... he doesn't take nights off... capable of throwing the occasional 30/15 up when he needs to (including a 34/14 followed by a 27/15 on back-to-back nights 2 weeks ago)... This ranking puts my faith in a rebound from Parker especially (right now 17 and 6 down from 22 and 7 last year)... and at least SOME improvement from Ginobili (who's quietly been pretty bad this year, 13 ppg, 40% shooting)... I really enjoy the work of George Hill (who I think is a top-25 NBA point guard right now), and Dajuan Blair who has been wonderful for a rookie...the x-factor is Jefferson who I actually don't think will do much more than the 13.1 ppg he's throwing up now, and average defense... the fit is semi-questionable because he's not a knock-down jumpshooter... the alarming thing is on the defensive end... They are near the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency (currently 11th)... and for the first time in the last decade, theyre outside the top 5 in that category... insane...I'll bet on Pop and Duncan and say they rebound....



  4. Denver - Uhhh... Melo is averaging 30 a game right now.... just thought you should know... Ty Lawson was a fantastic pick...the anti-Billups who is a speedster/creator that can get by anyone on the bounce and push the break.... they can play them together b/c Billups is so strong too... The real issue with Denver is up front... they just aren't deep there esp. when you consider how healthy Kenyon Martin has been... Nene is a very good option down there, but Birdman is a one-dimensional energy guy, and they are defensively inefficient with Melo and JR Smith... But the chief reason I don't trust the Nuggets... George Karl isn't a big-game coach... he doesn't do well with prosperity... he doesn't manage rotations well... and he lacks the defensive strategy to hide Melo, and I can't see a team in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency challenging the Lakers without ELITE offense... and I don't think Denver is to the level of a Phoenix or somebody like that on that end when Melo's jumpers aren't falling...



  5. Phoenix- The staggering egg they laid on Saturday to Memphis (a humbling 25 point loss) not withstanding... This is a scary team offensively (duh) that is getting a ridiculously efficient/awesome season from Nash (19 and 11 with 54/44/93 percentages while taking over as their main crunch time scorer) and breakout years from Channing Frye (13 and 6 and shooting 43% from 3, making 2.5 threes a game) and Jared Dudley (emerging as their lock-down defender and the guy I loved at BC)... As always... they don't defend... at all... and they've been fairly healthy thus far... Dragic is better than he's ever and they're doing this while getting nothing from their first-rounder (Earl Clark who is buried)... Still not too much upside but nobody wants to play them....



  6. Houston - I don't know how they do it in Houston... Well, I do... but it's certainly unconventional... mix-in a devastating offensive PG (Brooks), quality young scorers on the wing (Ariza/Budinger), and a crazy efficient, defensive-minded cast of role players and bigs (Scola/Battier/Landry/Lowry) who can all score when called upon, and are near-elite defenders at their positions... and did I mention they are somehow 20-14 without Yao Ming and anything from $23 million Tracy McGrady? This ranking is VERY fluid... simply because they now have the McGrady contract trade chip and that will likely pull them up significantly here... I love this team and how it's built... and if they want to compete in the playoffs, they need a real go-to option...



  7. Portland - This is blind faith in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge... both of their centers (you've heard all about Oden, but Joel Przybilla being out is a gigantic blow to them on the defensive end) being out is soul-crushing unless they steal someone in a deal... on the bright side for them, they have infinite wing assets so they can likely move one for a stop-gap at center... I'm almost incorporating that into this ranking simply because Juwan Howard/Dante Cunningham/Jeff Pendergraph/Shavlik Randolph isn't cutting it on the block... Jerryd Bayless has emerged as a reliable backcourt scorer (and he'll be getting more minutes while Steve Blake is out with pneumonia)... the x-factor? Andre Miller... will they move him? It's not a secret they signed him at the last minute to simply spend their cap space before they lost it forever...



  8. OKC - I was waving the flag preseason... and I'm still here... Durant is throwing up 30+ every night lately, and the rest of the squad flanks him beautifully... covering up for his defensive shortcomings (he's not quite there on that end) with a lanky/long team that is an anomaly for a young team in that they are playing very, very good defense... Sefolosha, Green, Westbrook, and even Harden are already above-average defenders at their spots, and newly acquired Eric Maynor allows Westbrook to go off-ball sometimes and provide a real, live, pass-first, run-the-show PG.... Not a threat to win a series yet... but if they somehow garnered the 7 seed and KD threw up a 36 ppg series...????



  9. Utah - An enigma of the highest order... the talent is there but the fit isn't always what it should be... They're paying a significant price to keep Millsap (who is quietly underachieving at 10 and 6... fitting into the role he's meant to play instead of the one he's being paid for) and Boozer around at the same position... Deron Williams has been darn good...putting up a 20/10 with 49% FG and 39% 3-pt, but he has a knack for putting up epic stinkers when they need it (the 4-point bomb he put forth at Philips Arena comes to mind)... They are very good at home, and would be scary in the playoffs (especially if they can make a basketball move unlike the trade they made to hand 1st round PG Eric Maynor to OKC)... but not a threat....



  10. New Orleans - Somebody help Mr. Paul out... The best PG alive is averaging 21 and 11 with 2.1 steals with 52/46/85 percentages... amazing... that's the list of positive things for the Hornets this year... wait.... wait.... okay, That's not ENTIRELY true... but it seems like it... David West has taken a small step back (17 and 7 down from 21 and 9 in 08-09), Okafor is putting up reasonable numbers (11/10/1.9 blocks) but isn't adding anything offensively and hasn't clicked with Paul in the way that throwback Tyson Chandler did... and needless to say the wing situation (Peja/Devin Brown/MoPete/Posey) is frankly an abomination... The lone non-Paul brightspot IMO happens to play the same position as Paul.... rookie Darren Collison was excellent in Paul's injury absence, plays lockdown defense, and has real promise... to the point where it almost doesn't make sense to keep that kind of asset around with so many holes.... Non-threat... and with David West on the block... yikes



  11. Memphis - The 2nd biggest surprise in the L to me... led by Zach Randolph's weird resurgence (20 and 11 per with multiple 30/15's), the Grizz have one of the better starting 5's in the West... Marc Gasol has proven to be an upper-tier center, Gay has taken a step farther, and Mayo has been very solid and even shown flashes of the defensive hype that accompanied him to the league... Even Mike Conley has been improved (now shooting 44% from the field and almost 38% from 3) while running the show effectively.... the trouble is the non-existent bench... Hasheem Thabeet has been fatally flawed and an early bust prospect at the #2 pick, and the rest of the bench is filled with unproven young guys like Sam Young and DeMarre Carroll.... They've peaked with this roster, but being competitive is more than most thought...



  12. LA Clippers - I really liked this team coming into the year... now 14-18 and still without Blake Griffin is not as disappointing as some might have thought.. especially when considering what they are getting from the previously thought to be contract-ridden C Chris Kaman... KLJ;FAWJFJFL;AJWKLF;JEWAJAFW

  13. Sacramento - If Memphis was the 2nd biggest surprise... Sacto is clearly the 1st... Even after losing 3 straight, this team is 14-19 (I had them winning around 14 all SEASON), and they've done the great majority of this without their best player entering the year in the ultra-efficient Kevin Martin... Tyreke Evans is averaging 20, 5, and 5 as a rookie, and while he's clearly not a point guard in any way, he has been fairly spectacular considering the weirdness by which he gets his offense, and even without a jumpshot altogether... Their dueling young bigs are the biggest key IMO with Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson each double figures and capable of 20/10's when they are needed... The issues? No proven point guard, wayyyy too much youth, and the prospect of how Martin will enter in with the new alpha dog in Evans... Interesting team but at least a year or 2 away...


  14. Minnesota - Ah the Wolves... Get the nod over GS because they don't have Nellie coaching them... and that's the list of reasons... Al Jefferson still isn't back to form (17 and 9 this year while respectable isn't near what he was putting up pre-injury), they have likely the worst wing rotation outside of New Orleans, and the Sessions signing looks dreadful right now when you think about the fit.... Kevin Love has been awesome (15 and 12+ boards with over 1 steal per), but the fit with Jefferson is very much in question even though I like both guys because neither is athletic enough to protect the rim on D... Jonny Flynn has shown signs and Rubio is still under rights (even though David Kahn botched that situation legendarily) so there are signs of life... but not a serious threat unless they can add depth and a legitimate wing of some sort....



  15. Golden State - The assets don't match the record with this team... There no less than 6 semi-quality to quality guards or swingmen on this team.... add in Randolph, Biedrins, and Turiaf and they have 9 guys that can play... much more than most teams near the bottom of their conferences can say..... Nellie is certifiable and that isn't an exaggeration or a joke... Monta Ellis has been darn good (26, 5, 4 on 47% shooting), Curry has been better than I thought he'd be this early from a floor standpoint, and I feel like he can shoot better than 44% FG/40% 3-pt..... Anthony Randolph is an athletic marvel that should be used more effectively... but you can't justify some of their rotations, the refusal to play even a semi-conventional lineup, or the inconsistency by which they use their swingmen.... On top of that, the entire roster has been deemed available for trade... even Curry/Ellis/Randolph.... that's insane... but they've dug their grave having Maggette/Azubuike/Morrow/Ellis/Curry/Radman/Watson at the same general positions with Raja Bell (injured) and Randolph being a perimeter player too... it's just a mess... they should send a couple of their decent wings to Minnesota for Kevin Love, let him throw outlets and run people out of the gym... would help both teams lol
Well that'll do it... to the one person that made it to end of this (cough, Ryan).... let me know how it went...


Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Tiger, Bobby Bowden, etc.

Greetings all...
  • Tiger Woods...what can you say? Everyone has formed an "opinion" on the late-night car incident...and all I will say is this... I don't care...and I don't think you should either... It's a personal matter...the only law-breaking he did was "recklessly driving" which is guilty of everyone I know including me... his personal life is his personal life... I'll be watching the details b/c yes, my personal opinion of him will downgrade if it comes out that he was cheating on his wife...but again, he's an athlete..it's his business...you're not his friend...
  • AI to Philly? Seems likely now with a formal offer being tendered...it's incentive-laden and non-guaranteed...but it's the only offer he's likely to receive so it'll be fascinating to see whether his desire to "start" or whatever is strong enough where he'll turn this down... I'm not crazy about the fit simply b/c I have no idea what they do when Lou Williams comes back... but he's better than Willie Green so done and done...
  • Charlie Weis got fired....yawn.... hire Brian Kelly and be done with it...
  • Bobby Bowden "retires"...if you don't think he was completely and utterly forced to do so, you're insane....that said, it's gotta be the best move for FSU... rid themselves of the drama and start over... and God knows they need to on defense...
  • Big suspension for Florida with the SEC title game looming.... All-world DE Carlos Dunlap was arrested after being asleep at the wheel at a traffic light between 2 and 3 am... wow... that's some kind of drunk... congrats Carlos... you've likely submarined your draft stock by 10-15 picks (ask Warren Sapp and Randy Moss) which could cost you $10 million... and you've removed yourself from the team indefinitely as the national championship is in view...brilliant
  • I heard this today (Props to JE Skeets and Basketball Jones)...but how in the WORLD can Mike Brown leave Big Z on the bench in that game? For backstory... Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas was setting the all-time games played record for the Cleveland franchise on Saturday.... if he entered the game.... Mike Brown kindly obliged him with his FIRST DNP-Coach's decision of his career...in that game!? With his family and friends there... and Big Z isn't a marginal rotation guy... he's one of the best 6-7 guys on that team to be generous... absurd
  • The Nets tab Kiki Vandeweghe to coach (as well as be the GM as he is already)... if I didn't mention this, Lawrence Frank shouldn't been fired IMO...but this is a total stopgap...
  • NBA Roundup from Monday: Welcome back Andrew Bogut.... the Bucks star big man came back with a 22 and 15 (and lockdown D) to ensure a Bucks W despite a struggling evening from Redd and Jennings... As mentioned above... Philly is awful... but Jason Terry broke their hearts at the gun last night...ouch... Troubling news (if you're me) from Memphis... Mike Conley got hurt last night...and he was already losing more and more minutes to newly signed Jamaal tinsley... Conley was my fairly well-publicized man-crush coming out of Ohio State (weird I know, just love his game)....come on Mike!!!
  • What to watch tonight.... ACC/Big 10 Challenge at 7:00 (Wake @ Purdue) and 9:00 (The headliner... Michigan State @ North Carolina, a must-see) on ESPN.... Followed by Hornets @ Lakers on NBA-TV at 10:30... Gotta love hoops

Until the next installment...