Friday, September 30, 2011

9/30: Weekend Football Preview

Greetings all... let's hit the big-time action from the weekend, college first, then NFL on the back-end...

COLLEGE
  • #3 Alabama @ #12 Florida - CBS 8:00 - Primetime CBS game? Yes, please... I think Alabama has the best defense in the country, and this is the first real test for the Charlie Weis brand of offense in Florida... the fact that the game is in Gainesville evens the playing field, but I can't pick against that Bama defense and Trent Richardson in the backfield...
  • #8 Nebraska @ #7 Wisconsin - ABC 8:00 - What a Big 10 debut for Nebraska... Madison at night? wow... anyway, I like the Badgers... Russell Wilson is a guy I've loved for years back at NC State, and he's playing lights-out right now.. they also have a big-time running game and the vaunted O-line, and while playing at home, I'll take them despite Nebraska being able to take it to the house at any point with Taylor Martinez...
  • #13 Clemson @ #11 Va Tech - ESPN2 6:00 - ACC game of the year maybe? It'll certainly be in the top 3 of that particular distinction... I think Clemson isn't as good as their record, and they're always capable of putting up a stinker... that happens here.... but even if it doesn't? VT is a better team and Blacksburg will be bumping for an evening kick-off...
  • #14 Texas A&M @ #18 Arkansas - ESPN Noon - This is a pretty awesome Noon kick... a throwback rivalry here, and while A&M blew a huge lead last week, this should be a highly entertaining game... Give me the Hogs here despite my heart telling me that I still despise Bobby Petrino...
  • Auburn @ #10 South Carolina - CBS 3:30 - I hate Stephen Garcia... but I'm still picking USC here... Auburn's defense is porous and I don't trust them... all Marcus Lattimore here...
  • #15 Baylor @ K-State - ABC 3:30 - Robert Griffin III is the best player in the country that you may not know... he has more TOUCHDOWNS than INCOMPLETIONS this year... read that again... give me Baylor...
NFL
  • Detroit @ Dallas - 1:00 FOX - Picking the "upset" out of the gate... I like Dallas here... Romo with another week to get right, and while Detroit has been a gauntlet, they're on the road here, and we'll see what they've got...
  • Pittsburgh @ Houston - 1:00 CBS - Some awesome 1:00 games... anyway, I like Pittsburgh... or moreso, I dislike Houston... prove it...
  • Carolina @ Chicago - 1:00 FOX - This is a must-win for the Bears, and I like them at home here against Carolina... for as good as Cam Newton looked the first 2 weeks, Carolina still stinks...
  • Minnesota @ KC - 1:00 FOX - Yikes... 0-3 vs. 0-3... I'll take Minnesota... I don't really know why they're 0-3, and KC is the worst team in the NFL in my opinion without Charles and Berry...
  • Buffalo @ Cincy - 1:00 CBS - This was a tough one for me... I want to pull the trigger on Andy Dalton and company, but I just can't... Buffalo...
  • Tennessee @ Cleveland - 1:00 CBS - Will the real Chris Johnson please stand up?
  • Washington @ St. Louis - 1:00 FOX - Can St. Louis start 0-4 and still win the NFC West? Yes, I think they could, but I also think they're winning here with S-Jax at near full strength...
  • San Fran @ Philly - 1:00 FOX - Huge game for Philly... West coast team traveling east... Vick supposed to play... all Philly...
  • New Orleans @ Jacksonville - 1:00 FOX - I think New Orleans is a top-5 team... Jacksonville most certainly is not...
  • Atlanta @ Seattle - 4:00 FOX - Must-win situation for the Falcons, and while the "Qwest Field advantage" is in effect, Seattle still pretty much stinks, and I gotta think Mike Smith has them ready...
  • NY Giants @ Arizona - 4:00 FOX - Mild upset here... I like the Cards... Kevin Kolb can sling it on a bad Giants secondary...
  • New England @ Oakland - 4:00 CBS - Angry Pats... Brady goes for 400+ here...
  • Denver @ Green Bay - 4:00 CBS - I can smell the Denver Broncos from here...
  • Miami @ San Diego - 4:00 CBS - Same goes for Miami...
  • NY Jets @ Baltimore - 8:20 NBC - One of the better night games in the next couple weeks... I like Baltimore here... the Jets defense isn't playing at their typical level, and more importantly, the NYJ offensive line is suddenly VERY average, and if they can't run the ball? They're not scoring enough points...
  • Indy @ Tampa Bay - 8:30 Monday ESPN - Indy on Monday night!... national coming out party for Josh Freeman here... Tampa by 2 touchdowns...
Enjoy the slate...

Hilariously Quick MLB Playoff Preview

Greetings... let's knock this out right now...

Division Series
  • Rangers over Rays in 4 - Too many bats for Texas here... really interested to see rookie Matt Moore on the hill in Game 1, but Texas is the better team
  • Yankees over Tigers in 4 - Verlander wins game 1... Yankees win the next 3...
  • Phillies over Cardinals in 3 - Get your brooms out... With apologies to Chris Carpenter, the pitching matchups are too lopsided...
  • Brewers over D-Backs in 4 - Allow me to be the millionth person that discounts the D-Backs... Milwaukee actually sets up really well in the playoffs with Greinke/Marcum/Gallardo and those bats... AZ will steal one behind Kennedy or Hudson, but that'll be it
Championship Series
  • Rangers over Yankees in 6 - Planting my flag on the Rangers... somehow, they have better pitching than the $200 million+ payroll Yankees (sorry CC), and an equally strong (if not better) bullpen... CC wins both of his starts... and the Yankees still lose in 6...
  • Phillies over Brewers in 5 - The gauntlet rolls on...
World Series
  • Phillies over Rangers in 7 - Better lineup and bullpen for the Rangers... (much) better starting pitching from the Phillies... I'll hold true to form and back the pitching, especially when all 3 Phillies guys are capable of throwing complete games and taking the bullpen out of it... I've been on Philly as the team to beat for 3-4 months, and I'll roll with them...
Sorry Nick...

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Meltdown Complete...

What do you say about the first team in Major League history to blow an 8+ game lead in September (AND a hilarious 10.5 game lead on August 26th) to miss the playoffs?

What do you say about losing 5 straight to end the season and 18 of their final 27 games?

What do you say about a 13-inning, soul-crushing defeat at the hands of a Phillies team that didn't feature a single inning from Halladay, Lee, or Hamels on Wednesday night?

I don't know...

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

9/28: Here we are...

This is my 1000th post... Needless to say, I wish I didn't have to make it...The Braves are imploding... you know that... but it's reached the point of a lead fully evaporated, and one game for the season... Oh, and now that the meltdown has gone this far? A win isn't enough, as the Cardinals need to drop a game tonight against hapless Houston...

This is a crazy statement to make, but I still think the Braves are going...
  1. Tim Hudson is on the mound tonight for Atlanta... this and the fact that Philly is throwing a cavalcade of garbage makes me feel good about a win...
  2. Brett Myers.... I don't necessarily think he shuts down the Cardinals tonight, but he's been pitching very well of late, and he at least gives Houston a puncher's chance (despite opposing Chris Carpenter)...
  3. The Thursday pitching matchup... Beachy vs. Lohse? I feel okay about that... moreso because I don't trust Lohse than anything else...
All positivity aside, this has been an unmitigated disaster, and the Braves don't deserve a playoff appearance... but sneak in, and this is baseball... the Giants won the whole thing last year with 2 above-average hitters... Here we are...

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

9/27: Crunch Time...

Greetings... my apologies on the weekend football disappearance... was out of range for much of the weekend, and wasn't feeling particularly qualified... at any rate, let's hit the Braves..

God Bless the Houston Astros... why, you ask?... well, because they somehow defeated the Cards last night to off-set a heart-breaking Braves loss.... the lead sits at 1 game with 2 to play, and while that lends itself to the Braves favor by simple math, the Cards can't be trusted to lose to the hapless Astros again, and with Philly looking as if it'll play the starters (if not throw their full pitching at the Braves), it's crunch time...

Derek Lowe... Godspeed to you, my friend... the "Lowe is terrible!" narrative has gotten huge legs lately, but that overlooks 1) his lengthy positive track record in post-season/clutch games, and 2) he pitched fairly well in his last outing... I feel okay about this one... especially with Roy Oswalt likely to only pitch 5-6 innings for Philly and that bullpen scuffling...

Here we go...

Thursday, September 22, 2011

A Word on the Braves....

Fear.

(Copyright: Darryl Crossland)

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

9/21: Holding Serve...

Greetings...
  • The Braves won 4-0 last night behind a scoreless outing from young Randall Delgado and bombs from Alex Gonzalez and Freddie Freeman.... BUT... the Cards also won... now, of course, we'll take this as Braves fans because we currently have the lead, and the magic number lowers... but here we are...
  • The Red Sox and Rays also "hold serve" but in losing fashion thanks a blown save from Papelbon and a 5-0 shutout loss to the Yankees by the Rays... I still think the Sox and Braves are going, but who knows...
  • The Ravens lock up DT Haloti Ngata to a 5-year extension... he's the best DT alive in my opinion, and you can see his impact on a play-by-play basis, which is definitely not always the case from an interior guy...
  • The Pac-12 is saying they have "no further expansion" in the works... I'll believe that when I see it...
  • Blaine Gabbert, starting NFL quarterback... at least in Week 3 for the Jags... he can't possibly be worse than Luke McCown was, and no one has them slated for the playoffs...
Nice slate of football on the way for the weekend, we'll get to that shortly...

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

9/20: The Ship Be Sinking....

Greetings all... I'll go ahead and accredit the idea for the title of this post to my friend Ryan, who dropped the old Michael Ray Richardson quote on another friend of mine via Twitter... seems appropriate... anyway...
  • Leading with the Braves (as reference to the title)... I'm officially declaring my terror on this one... after Omar Infante shockingly lifted off against Craig Kimbrel in walk-off fashion AND the Cardinals beat the best pitcher alive last night to cut the lead to 2.5 games, I've reached this place... now, let me say this... gun to my head? I think the Braves hold on somehow, St. Louis pretty much needs to go 8-1 down the stretch IMO and I don't think they do it... that said, the overall issues are glaring at this point for when (really, if) the Braves make the postseason... the bullpen, which is the staple of the team btw, suddenly looks ordinary with Venters and Kimbrel looking human under massive workloads (thanks Fredi), and with the rotation unsettled to say the least, the pitching isn't the automatic that it used to be... cue the bats, right?... well, it's been a struggle of late (outside of a recent surge from Jason Heyward that somehow has been under-reported) and playoff baseball is terrifying at this point... but while we're here... it's going to be a long, long week...
Elsewhere... My apologies on the lack of a football wrap... let's hit the big, big stories (won't get to them all) from the weekend starting with Monday night since it's recent...
  • Giants 28, Rams 16 - this was a pretty wretched football game to be honest... no Steven Jackson hurt the Rams (namely because Cadillac isn't very good), but Eli and company made enough plays (and basically, didnt blow it)... and were the more balanced club...
  • Falcons/Eagles - Enough has been said/written about this... but gotta shout out Matt Ryan for making plays.. I don't see how you can crap on the guy when he throws 4 touchdowns... yes, bad 3rd quarter, but come on... and while we're here, the "Vick is injury prone" narrative... I do understand it, but the guy got a concussion, he didn't pull a hammy or anything... come on...
  • Oklahoma/Florida State - the #1 Sooners win on the road... that's a statement win for a program that lacked any big-time road success in recent years... and to do it with Landry Jones only going for 199 with 1 TD, 2 INT? Impressed...
  • Pats/Chargers - the other big NFL game... Tom Brady is basically better than everyone... that's the takeaway here I think... but seriously, the Pats offense is clicking, and if they get the run defense that they showed against SD, good luck...
  • Ravens/Titans - Forgive me while I pull something while patting myself on the back for picking the upset... that is all....
And a quick non-football rant...
  • Mariano Rivera is the all-time saves leader... hurray for setting a record that means absolutely nothing!... saves are irrelevant!... but that's no shot at Rivera, who is the best relief pitcher (saves or no saves) that I've ever seen...
Until later..

Friday, September 16, 2011

Weekend Football Preview - Edition 2

Greetings all... one quick note before we preview since I need to hit on LSU/Miss State...
  • LSU's defense is filthy... they held the Bulldogs to just 6 points in front of a cowbell-laden crowd in Starkville, and you can just SEE the athletes on LSU's defense compared to everyone else's.. it's a different look... that said, there's still a ceiling there IMO because of Les Miles and Jarrett Lee, but the talent is seeping...
On to the college preview...
  • Oklahoma @ Florida State - 8:00 ABC - Game of the year so far... the #1 Sooners going on the road to FSU as the Noles try to avenge a 30-point loss from last year in Norman... I unequivocally think OU is the better team, but they've been pretty wretched on the road the last few years, and Doak Campbell should be rocking... I'm calling my shot and picking FSU and EJ Manuel here... he makes enough plays, and Landry Jones makes enough mistakes on the road that FSU wins a tight one in the 34-30 type range...
  • Ohio State @ Miami - 7:30 ESPN - This one certainly has the 2nd most fanfare coming into the week... both of these teams have experienced massive scandal that has decimated each roster... I think Ohio State is still the better team, and they get 3 suspended players back in this one... I'll pick the Bucks (sigh) because I don't trust the Miami offense to do anything but throw it to the wrong jersey...
  • Texas @ UCLA - 3:30 ABC - Remember when it was a big deal that UCLA ran Texas out of the building last year?.... Then Texas flew off the handle, and UCLA tanked... yeah... anyway, Texas is somehow favored again here on the road (despite doing really nothing to earn that distinction), and I, of course, like them in the game... the Texas offense is a bit of a mess at quarterback, but they still have a distinct talent edge AND some extra motivation from last year...
  • Michigan State @ Notre Dame - 3:30 NBC - The hits keep coming for the Irish... already 0-2 and playing their highest ranked opponent yet... I still like ND in this game because I think Michigan State is grossly overrated at #15, but moreso because Notre Dame's offense is legitimately explosive, and they have to have a game in here somewhere where they don't commit 4+ turnovers... right?...
  • Auburn @ Clemson - 12:00 SEC Network/Raycom - Ah, Clemson... the biggest underachievers in the country... I STILL don't believe in Auburn in the slightest, but it's tough to pick an underwhelming ACC team in this spot... so, of course, I'm doing it anyway, give me the Clemson squad in Death Valley... touch the rock... all of that...
To the NFL...
  • Chicago @ New Orleans - 1:00 FOX - Jay Cutler and the boys did enough in Week one to heighten expectations... I'm already enjoying the thought of them crashing back to earth after a double-digit loss to an angry New Orleans team...
  • Oakland @ Buffalo - 1:00 CBS - I can smell this game from here... but I like Buffalo at home, Oakland looked pretty inept (despite winning lol) in Week 1, and I almost trust Ryan Fitzpatrick...
  • Kansas City @ Detroit - 1:00 CBS - No one laid a bigger egg last week than Kansas City... and Detroit is still healthy at the time of this writing? No-brainer... It'll be a nice test for that new and improved Detroit run defense though...
  • Cleveland @ Indy - 1:00 CBS - No one on the planet will watch this game... but I like the Browns... I can't pick the Colts until I see something from Kerry Collins that doesn't inspire vomit-like symptoms... I'm so sorry Austin Collie...
  • Tampa @ Minnesota - 1:00 FOX - This is an interesting spot... Tampa is the better team, but Minnesota's got a legit home crowd, and Donovan CAN'T be as bad as last week (can he?... uh... can he?!?!?)... I'll take the Vikings..
  • Green Bay @ Carolina - 1:00 FOX - Ah, Cam Newton... you had a helluva debut... but welcome to the NFL against a top-flight defense... let the turnovers follow... the Packers roll...
  • Seattle @ Pittsburgh - 1:00 CBS - The team with the toughest game this week? Whoever had the joy of playing angry Pittsburgh at Heinz Field... when it's QB has a nickname like T-Jax... best of luck... I will now refrain from making a referee/super bowl joke for fear that Ryan may kill me in my sleep... moving on...
  • Baltimore @ Tennessee - 1:00 CBS - Upset special of the week... give me the Titans... and no, I have no reasoning...
  • Arizona @ Washington - 1:00 FOX - Kevin Kolb on the road... Until he does it once? Can't pick him.. and Rex Grossman looked pretty darn good last week for what it's worth...
  • Jacksonville @ NY Jets - 1:00 CBS - Someone named McCown playing on the road against the Jets defense... this is going to be an absolute blood-bath...
  • Dallas @ San Francisco - 4:00 FOX - I think I'm going to make it a point to never, ever back the NFC West team in a non-divisional game... especially when I picked Dallas to make the Super Bowl... come on Tony!...
  • Cincy @ Denver - 4:00 CBS - Worst game of the week for me... but I do want to see what the Denver defense can do against a bad, bad Bengals offense... Von Miller and Dumervil meeting at the QB... Oh, and more Tebow chants please..
  • San Diego @ New England - 4:00 CBS - Best game of the week... Tom Brady won't be going for 500+ in this one against the statistically best pass defense from a year ago, but I think he can still put up an efficient 300... the x-factor? Can a Pats pass D that allowed 400+ to Chad Henne do anything to slow down Phil Rivers?... I say no... shoot-out written all over it... 38-35 Pats...
  • Houston @ Miami - 4:00 CBS - I thought Miami played really well offensively on Monday... and lost by 2 touchdowns... that's not good... Houston's defense is improved, and they get Arian Foster back for this one... Give me the Texans (with some fear) on the road...
  • Philly @ Atlanta - 8:00 NBC - Mike Vick is coming... and the buzz is huge for this one in the city in which I reside... but let's stay on the field... I think it's really a matchup of Philly's DBs vs. Matt Ryan and company, and that scares me... I think Philly causes a couple TO's in this one, and unless Mike Vick implodes (this is in play btw), I think they get a close win... but that said, Mike will be jacked up for this one AND he has a putrid O-line... if there was ever a time for Ray Edwards to show up, this would be it... gun to my head, I like Philly in the game, but that pains me...
  • St. Louis @ NY Giants - 8:30 Monday ESPN - Sam Bradford is banged up but he'll go... that's more than I can say for his 2 best weapons in Jackson and Amendola... and that puts them behind the 8-ball immediately... even with Hakeem Nicks banged up, I still like the Giants here... just not enough talent around Bradford to take advantage of the battered Giants D... and Eli should be solid here...
Until later...

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

9/14: Baseball Coverage!

I joke with exclamation points... but we're going all baseball today (since nothing else happened last night)...
  • The Braves get a win... 7-1 behind two 3-run bombs from McCann and Uggla... Mike Minor was pretty good yet again (albeit inefficient/wild), and the McCann bomb felt like the kind that can send the squad into a good run...
  • Justin Verlander has 23 wins... and has won his last 11 starts... not decisions.. starts!... now, part of that is luck (i.e. run support/bullpen), but it's still impressive... the funny thing is, CC Sabathia has been about a quarter-tick worse, and yet NO one has anyone in the Cy Young conversation except Verlander...
  • Mo Rivera is better at his job than you are at yours... 600 saves... now, the save stat is an absurd one, and I mostly discount this record, but you can't ignore the peripherals on Rivera... career 2.22 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 55.8 WAR (as a reliever!)... basically, he's the best relief pitcher ever, but not because he has 600 saves...
  • Tim Wakefield has 200 wins... Tim... Wakefield... I guess that's what happens when you pitch until your mid-40s and spend the second half of your career on the Red Sox...
  • Speaking of the Sox, they won and Tampa lost on Tuesday... the sound you hear is a giant exhale from Boston... it's not over yet, but last night was huge for them...
Until later...

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

9/13: MNF Double-Header, Braves, etc.

Greetings all... let's hit a couple topics...
  • Pats 38, Dolphins 24 - Well, this wasn't exactly what I'd expect... a combined 900+ passing yards from the 2 Michigan Wolverine alumni (Chad Henne and Tom Brady) to set a new NFL record for combined passing yards in a game... AND a 99-yard TD pass from Brady to Welker... anyway, the Pats win because that's what the Pats do, and Brady was incredible with 517 yards and 4 TDs, but I was actually mildly impressed by the Dolphins in the loss... Henne goes for 400+ and 2 scores with just 1 pick, and somehow ran for 59 yards (I have absolutely no idea)... Tom Brady is better than you... moral of the story
  • Oakland 23, Denver 20 - Denver well on their way to the 5-11 I predicted lol.... the x-factor in this one was Denver's complete inability (and later unwillingness) to run the ball... 38 yards on the ground won't get it done... I didn't think Campbell was particularly good, but he didn't turn it over and that was enough when McFadden had it going (22 for 150), and they had Janikowski legging 63-yard BOMBS...
  • Novak Djokovic takes down Nadal for the US Open title... weird because it was played on Monday, but I can't act like I watched this...
  • Wild Card Madness: The Rays win again and cut the Red Sox lead to 3 games... I personally think Boston holds on here, but Tampa really has it going right now, and Boston has exactly one healthy (good) starter in Lester... they gotta hold on for another week... The Braves on the other hand? Taking on water... fortunately for them, St. Louis dropped on in Pittsburgh so the lead stays at 4.5 games, but Atlanta doesn't have anybody going right now this side of Chipper, and the bullpen isn't as lock-down as it's seemed all year (albeit still dominant)... it's not over...
  • The T-Wolves have a new coach?... there's some controversy surrounding a Kevin Love tweet, but I won't get into that... the story is Rick Adelman reportedly taking the job... I like that hire... he's won everywhere he's been and they need somebody that can take them up a few levels... oh, and Kevin Love is a family friend... that doesn't hurt...
Until later...
Until next time...

Sunday, September 11, 2011

9/12: Football Wrap....

Lots to get to this morning... I shirked my responsibility of getting a timely college football wrap up, so we'll combine both college and pro here... albeit briefly...

College
  • Michigan/Notre Dame - Uhh... what a game... sloppily played and still brilliant... you won't see a crazier 4 minutes or so than the back-and-forth that ensued.. what is there to take away? Michigan's offense played terribly and scored 35 points... Michigan's defense still stinks BUT at least Greg Mattison is capable of making in-game adjustments... and Notre Dame turns the ball over... like a lot.... big win...
  • Alabama/Penn State - Bama is a gauntlet defensively... I'm surprised they even allowed a late score, but 27-11 seems about right on the road... they are scary...
  • South Carolina/Georgia - This was a crazy game too... 2 defensive TDs including the clincher for South Carolina, and I'm sure UGA fans are going nuts about scoring 42 points and still losing a home game... that's tough to do... on the bright side? It's one game... and Crowell looked legit explosive... on the other hand? It's the one game they couldn't afford to lose in-conference...
  • Auburn/Miss State - Count me surprised that Auburn snuck this one out... their defense still sucks out loud, but putting up 41 on a legit SEC defense is pretty impressive for a non-Cam Newton offense...
NFL
  • Falcons/Bears - Uhh... that didn't go well... allowing 30 points to the Bears without a return TD is pretty tough to do, and the offense was worse... I do think the "panic mode" is a bit over-zealous, but it certainly wasn't a good performance, and with the Eagles coming in, that could be a bit iffy...
  • Buffalo/KC - The shocking score of the day for me... 41-7... on the road?... in Arrowhead?... Fitzpatrick with 4 TDs and they held Charles and company completely in check...
  • Philly/STL - Hot start for the Rams, but they lost Jackson after 2 carries, banged up Bradford, AND lost Amendola... good luck with that... Still not impressed by what I saw from Philly's offense (namely the O-line), but McCoy went for 120+ on just 15 carries, he's a stud...
  • Detroit/TB - Let the Stafford hype commence... well, it was already going, but he went for 3 bills and 3 TDs in the road win... we all know they'll be dangerous if healthy
  • Tennessee/Jacksonville - They played a game... Jacksonville won... both of these teams stink...
  • Cincy/Cleveland - I really thought Colt McCoy and company would take care of business here, but 27-17 Cincy, and Cedric Benson is alive... 25 carries for 121, and they controlled the line of scrimmage...
  • Baltimore/Pittsburgh - Shocking score #2... Pittsburgh just kept turning the ball over and things snowballed... you know it's bad when the Yahoo "player of the game" for Pitt is Emmanuel Sanders with 20 yards and a TD... yeah...
  • Houston/Indy - Kerry Collins stinks... but Indy looked TERRIBLE in every phase... could be a long year... Houston needed to dominate, and they did so even without Foster (Ben Tate went for 100+) but the defense was good...
  • Washington/NYG - Oh, the Giants... anyway, Rex was slinging the rock to the tune of 300+ and 2 scores... if he plays like that (albeit against a banged up D), they could be okay..
  • San Diego/Minny - The Chargers won a game in September!...
  • Carolina/Arizona - The Cards won this one by a TD, but the story is Cam Newton throwing for 422 yards... where the heck did that come from?... underrated though was Kolb throwing for an efficient 309 and 2 TDs in the win... they could have something there...
  • SF/Seattle - Ineptitude on both sides... but SF managed to put up 33 points despite Alex Smith being Alex Smith... Ted Ginn returned 2 kicks for scores, and that was pretty much the story...
  • Dallas/NYJ - This turned into a shoot-out randomly... Sanchez and Romo both went for 330+ yards and the Ryan brothers defensive narrative was out the window... the Jets made plays late, namely the blocked punt TD, and Nick Folk cash-moneyed a 50-yard field goal to seal it... we caught a glimpse of what the Dallas offense could be early with Dez Bryant/Miles Austin/Jason Witten going, but predictably, Bryant got banged up and things slowed...
Tune in tonight for the yearly Monday night football double-header...

Friday, September 9, 2011

Weekend Football Preview - Edition 1

Greetings everyone... because it's the first weekend that includes both college and NFL games, this is edition 1... let's break down the big games, first from the college ranks...
  • #12 South Carolina @ Georgia - 4:30 ESPN - Weird start time... anyway, this may be for Mark Richt's job reportedly (which is crazy IMO), and it's an extremely important game for both teams since it's a conference AND division game... I don't think I can pick against South Carolina because I just think they are the better team, but there's something to be said for desperation, and if there was ever a time for UGA, it's now... they'll need to gang up to stop Lattimore, but that makes me wary of a big game from Garcia/Jeffery...
  • #3 Alabama @ #23 Penn State - 3:30 ABC - The fact that Penn State is ranked may give you the illusion that this will be a competitive game... my money says it won't be... Alabama is the best team in the country, and they should have no trouble here... 2+ TD margin... one thing to watch, however, is how the 'Bama QB situation unfolds...
  • Notre Dame @ Michigan - 8:00 ESPN - I've been answering the question all week, but let's do it here... this is the first night game in the history of Michigan Stadium... why, you ask?... Well, because Michigan Stadium didn't have lights 12 months ago... okay then... onto the game, I think Michigan can absolutely score on the Irish, and I like the Wolverines in the game, but if Tommy Rees plays how he did in the 2nd half against USF for Notre Dame, it'll be a tight one... Anxious to see how the play-calling shapes against a real defense for the first time in the Al Borges/Brady Hoke era...
  • BYU @ #24 Texas - 7:00 ESPN2 - This is a game no one will talk about, but I find Texas very interesting... they fell off the cliff last year, and BYU is a real opponent, this will be a good gauge....
  • #16 Mississippi State @ Auburn - 12:30 SEC Network - Auburn looked really, really bad last week, and Miss State looked really, really good... the truth is probably in between, but I would've taken MSU even before seeing them both at the opposite sides of the spectrum last week... too much new blood for Auburn, and I think Chris Relf and company score at will on Saturday...
Pretty nice weekend, but in fairness... it's all about the NFL on opening week... let's go down the slate one by one...
  • Falcons @ Bears - 1:00 FOX - I like the Falcons in the game... it's not even that I feel great about a road opener for them, but I'm so anti-Bears this year that I can't pull the trigger on them... if the Falcons get pressure (paging Ray Edwards), I feel good about containing Cutler, and Mike Martz is known for abandoning the game-plan (or just making a crazy one) if things go wrong early... oh, and Matt Ryan explodes here a bit.. I see 40 pass attempts...
  • Bengals @ Browns - 1:00 CBS - Maybe the worst game of the weekend... I'll take the Browns at home because I like Colt McCoy more than Andy Dalton... yeah, that's pretty much all I'll give you here
  • Bills @ Chiefs - 1:00 CBS - Not a peep about the Chiefs in the preseason, which is semi-surprising since they won 10 games last year, but most assume they'll regress... I agree with that sentiment, but they start 1-0 here... can't back the Bills in Arrowhead... too much Jamaal Charles...
  • Eagles @ Rams - 1:00 FOX - Quietly awesome game here... I'm picking the Rams... there, I said it... Lot of hype for Philly, they go on the road to a pretty hostile place, and I think the Rams (and namely, Sam Bradford) play up to the challenge... For some reason, I'm seeing a Vick stinker here too, and the giant overreaction headlines the next day..
  • Lions @ Bucs - 1:00 FOX - This line moved almost 4 points toward the Lions in Vegas... translation? Nobody likes the Bucs, and everyone is high (probably too high) on Detroit... that scares me... Give me Josh Freeman playing at home, even though I'm not sold on Tampa this year, it's a lot to ask of Stafford and company to go on the road and beat a legit opponent out of the gate...
  • Titans @ Jags - 1:00 CBS - This game suddenly is a lot worse now that Luke McCown is involved... yikes... I'm really down on the Jags (pre-Garrard even, now it's worse), and with Hasselbeck healthy still (lol), I like the Titans a lot here...
  • Steelers @ Ravens - 1:00 CBS - Game of the day... Picking Pittsburgh despite my feelings about the Baltimore offense breaking out... I don't trust the Ravens defense like I used to, and Roethlisberger is armed with the weapons to put up high 20's on them... that'll be enough
  • Colts @ Texans - 1:00 CBS - Kerry Collins everybody!!!! (Translation: I like the Texans)
  • Panthers @ Cards - 4:15 FOX - This is the other contender for worst game of the day... but at least it has storylines surrounding Kevin Kolb and Cam Newton... I wouldn't wager YOUR money on the Panthers on the road...
  • Vikings @ Chargers - 4:15 FOX - Sneaky interesting game... I'm high on the Vikings, but the Chargers are kind of a gauntlet when they have it going... Norv can't afford another notorious slow start, so I like the Chargers, with some fear... too much Rivers...
  • Seahawks @ 49ers - 4:15 FOX - Tarvaris Jackson... Alex Smith... what could go wrong!??!?
  • Giants @ Redskins - 4:15 FOX - Give me Rex Grossman here... wow, I just said that... anyway, the Giants defense is so battered that I just couldn't back them on the road, even against Rex... cue the "can Washington make the playoffs?!!?" storylines...
  • Pats @ Dolphins - 7:00 Monday ESPN - First of the MNF double-header... I'm on record as loving the Pats (shocking I know)... but I could see Miami hanging around just long enough to get some fear going... It's time to show up Chad Henne... oh, and anytime there' s a battle of Michigan quarterbacks? I'm in..
  • Raiders @ Broncos - 10:15 Monday ESPN - Unfortunately for ESPN, half the eastern seaboard will be asleep by the 2nd quarter, because this game stinks... Give me Jason Campbell and the Raiders in a mild road upset... but I'm looking forward to watching Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil meet at the QB all night...
There it is... enjoy the full first football weekend!

9/9: Packers/Saints, Peyton Manning, etc.

Greetings all... let's quickly touch on what happened last night before getting into the weekend later in the day...
  • Packers 42, Saints 34 - Wow... well, that's a kickoff to the season... Green Bay stones New Orleans at the goal line to end things, and you won't see a better battle of QBs than that... Aaron Rodgers went 27 for 35 for 312 and 3 TDs while Brees went 32-49 for 419 and 3 TDs... what else do you really say? These are both clearly playoff teams, and I'm not sure we'll see a better offensive football game in 2011... yeah, that's strong, but here we are..
  • The Braves did what they needed to do... sweep the double-header in Citi Field over the Mets... it wasn't pretty all day, but 2 wins are 2 wins and I feel better today than I did 24 hours ago... Brian McCann had an injury scare, but reports are positive..
  • Peyton Manning had another surgery and could be out 2-3 months?... Goodbye Colts season... In all seriousness, he's probably worth 4-5 wins over replacement, and his loss definitely knocks them out of legit contention IMO...
  • Oklahoma State 37, Arizona 14 - This wasn't really competitive... the takeaway just may be that Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon is the best QB/WR combo in the nation... Weeden went 42-53 for 397 yards, and Blackmon had 2 ridiculous long TDs...
  • Little chatter about the NBA being "closer" than we think... this kinda screams "media push" to me... show me something real...
Stay tuned for a football weekend preview later...

Thursday, September 8, 2011

9/8: NFL Kickoff, Braves, etc.

Greetings all... not covering a whole lot today, but wanted to get something up on the NFL Opener... at any rate, scroll down for the full NFL Preview!
  • Saints @ Packers - 8:00 PM on NBC tonight kicking off the NFL season... I can't think of many better matchups from an entertainment standpoint, and these teams will put up some points.. I'm going to pick the Pack because they are at home, and I frankly trust their defense more than the Saints, but I expect a game in the low-to-mid 30's for each team... Really intrigued to see how Ryan Grant looks, and whether Jermichael Finley will be integrated easily back into the GB offense, while I'm interested in Mark Ingram's use as well... Def. a mark your calendar game...
  • Braves playing the double-header in New York today... thanks Hurricane Irene!... Anyway, the lead is now 6.5 games, and some fear is creeping in, but with a sweep today? little breathing room... Minor and Teheran on the mound...
Enjoy it...

2011 NFL Preview: Part 9 - Awards and Playoffs

Greetings all... let's get to it with some predictions sure to go wrong...

Awards
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year - AJ Green, WR Cincinnati - This is a tough one for me this year simply because I think Mark Ingram is the most NFL-ready guy on offense, but in a Sean Payton offense and with Pierre Thomas still alive, I can't see him getting enough touches... so I'll take Green over Ingram and Julio Jones because he's uber-talented AND the #1 target... Runner-Up: Mark Ingram, NO
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year - Von Miller, DE Denver - Guy is a beast... flat-out, and with Dumervil on the other side, he'll see some single-teams, and I can see a double-digit sack year... Runner-Up: Patrick Peterson, CB Arizona
  • Coach of the Year - Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh - why? Because coach of the year may as well be called, "coach of the team that exceeds whatever experts think preseason"... and I hate that...
  • Offensive MVP - Ray Rice, RB Baltimore - I'm calling my shot... I think Rice goes for somewhere in the neighborhood of 2200 total yards, and takes the torch as the #1 RB for the year.... while the QBs (Brady, Rivers, Brees, Rodgers) battle it out for supremacy, I think he distances himself this year... call it a gut feeling... Runner-up: Tom Brady
  • Defensive MVP - Ndamukong Suh, DT Detroit - Whoa... a defensive tackle? yep... he's got the hype machine behind him AND a chance to go for 12-14 sacks from that spot with some memorable hits... it's all about perception for this one since the defensive metrics are widely used, so here we are...

Playoffs

NFC Teams - Dallas, Philly (WC), Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans (WC), St. Louis
AFC Teams - New England, NY Jets (WC), Pittsburgh, Baltimore (WC), Houston, San Diego

AFC Title Game - New England over San Diego
NFC Title Game - Dallas over Atlanta

Super Bowl - New England over Dallas

Okay... so there we are... brief, I know, but 9 parts is 9 parts... the season kicks off tonight with Packers/Saints... let's get it

2011 NFL Preview: Part 8 - NFC East

Greetings... let's wrap the divisions up...
  1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) - You're thinking, what!??! Dallas?... Yes, Dallas... I'm all-in... normally, my inclination is to fade Dallas because of the hype machine, but with the moves Philly made and the Wade Phillips meltdown, Dallas is somehow flying under the radar... Tony Romo is back and I think he has a big year... couple that with a legit run game now that Felix Jones can go, and the Bryant/Austin/Witten trio? Makings of a top-5 type offense... the defense was pretty putrid a year ago, but insert Rob Ryan as the coordinator, and they should be mean... oh, and Demarcus Ware still exists... They'd be even higher if they had pulled off the Asomugha signing, but I think the Ryan blitzing schemes will keep the pressure off the back-end... Give me the Cowboys on a limb...
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) - It's all about Vick's health... literally, ALL about Vick's health... do I think he's as good as he was in the first 12 weeks last year? No I don't, but he's clearly a different (better) player than he was in Atlanta, and he has weapons galore to play with in Jackson, McCoy, and Maclin among others... if he plays 16? They probably win more than 10 games... if he plays 10? They probably win more like 7 or 8... it's that big of a swing when you consider that a) they've built the offense around him now, and b) his backup is Vince Young... it's an explosive unit offensively, yes... but the BIG splash? the secondary now features Nnamdi, Asante Samuel, AND Rodgers-Cromartie to form the scariest CB trio I can really ever remember... if they get anything at all out of the front 7, the defense could be scary... Trent Cole is a top-5 DE in the league right now and he'll need some help up there... I like Philly, but I'm gun-shy on Vick playing all 16, so I'll hedge...
  3. New York Giants (8-8) - Screams mediocre to me... the defensive secondary has been gutted with injuries in the preseason... they lost Steve Smith to injury and then to another team offensively, and the Eli/Bradshaw combo doesn't do anything to inspire awe, no matter how solid it may be... if they were healthy as constructed before the preseason? I'd give them 9 wins (maybe 10) but they have guys off the street playing DB and that's not enough to make the playoffs in this division even when you have Justin Tuck and the like coming off the corner...
  4. Washington Redskins (5-11) - Ladies and gentlemen... Rex Grossman!... Yikes... I'm giving them 5 wins because I think a) Rex isn't as bad as people he think (he's still bad, but not putrid), and b) I kinda like their defense... they're going to need production from Tim Hightower and Santana Moss, but read those names again and don't laugh about them being the #1's on a team quarterbacked by Rex Grossman... I'd be lying if I said it couldn't be worse than 5 wins, because that's very much in play if they quit on Shanahan, but with Orakpo, D-Hall, Landry and Atogwe teaming with rookie Ryan Kerrigan on defense, I can't hate too much... this isn't Carolina from last year... well, unless John Beck plays... then all bets are off...
Stay tuned for Part 9 featuring playoff predictions, awards, etc...

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

2011 NFL Preview: Part 7 - NFC North

Almost there...
  1. Green Bay Packers (11-5) - I'm up and down on the Packers... they have all the talent in the world AND return 2 impact guys that missed the playoff run (Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley) to that already loaded roster... but then there's the problem with trying to repeat... everyone wants their own, etc... but in the end, returning the nucleus with a shortened pre-season can only help, and the fact that they have an elite QB in Aaron Rodgers gives them the upper-hand... the Starks/Grant running back tandem doesn't scare anyone, but combine that with the 300-400 yards that Rodgers will get and the array of wideouts, and that's a great offense... the defense is LOADED with upper-echelon guys led by Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson... the previous "best secondary" title resided in GB, and while Philly/NYJ may have vaulted them, it's still a very good unit... 11 wins is safe...
  2. Minnesota Vikings (9-7) - I'm planting my flag... Donovan isn't as bad as he was last year, and I think he makes a resurgence... couple that with the best running back alive in Peterson, and a (hopefully) healthy Percy Harvin, and you have an offense good enough to compete (not to mention the best guard alive as well in Steve Hutchinson)... the defense is where the key lies... Jared Allen had an awful year by his standards, but I fully expect a return to 12-15 sacks... they are hurt by the 2-game suspension for all-world DT Kevin Williams, but he's back soon enough to anchor that D-line and this is just a better roster than that of Chicago or Detroit... it's on you Donovan...
  3. Detroit Lions (8-8) - I'm kind of hedging my bets here... if Matthew Stafford plays all 16 (a GIANT if), I actually think they win 9 or 10... he's uber-talented (there's a reason he went #1 after all), and with Jahvid Best and Calvin Johnson, they have home-run hitters... but I can't in good conscience predict more than 8 wins with Stafford and Best as the QB/RB combo... too much injury risk... on defense? it's actually looking pretty nice... Ndamukong Suh is the best young DT in the game (and maybe the best one overall), and he forms a really nice D-line with Corey Williams, Kyle Vanden Bosch and rookie Nic Fairley (when healthy)... the back-end is improved as well, and while it won't be an elite unit, they'll make plays when that defensive line is cooking... big-time upside with this club...
  4. Chicago Bears (6-10) - That's the cliff... yep, right there... I haven't met a single person who thinks they can repeat their 2010 record, but nobody has them this low either... well, hello... Jay Cutler is Jay Cutler... huge arm, he'll get you numbers, but no one actually LIKES him and I'm betting he lost some respect with the playoff disappearance... I actually like Matt Forte, but they seem content to under-use him (cough, Mike Martz), and the receiving corps is pretty putrid after Johnny Knox (who's more like a #3)... but the biggest issue for them outside of the receivers is the O-line... it's a problem... the defense has guys you know, and therefore, you may assume it's going to be an elite unit... meh... Peppers was fantastic in 2010, but he's known for having one good year and one bad... Urlacher isn't getting younger, and the secondary is banged up... they're going to need an elite year from Briggs, and the hope that Urlacher can still go... I don't see it...
Stay tuned for the NFC East and the league-wide wrap...

2011 NFL Preview: Part 6 - NFC South

Toughest race to call for me...
  1. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) - 11 seems low for this division winner, but I can't find 12 for them or the Saints... I'm actually excited to see what Matt Ryan can do with 2 legitimate receivers, and the rave reviews about Julio Jones seem to be warranted from what I've seen (albeit limited)... the key for me offensively is the health and effectiveness of Michael Turner... I was record earlier in 2010 saying he looked a step slow, and while he turned it around production-wise, I'm not entirely convinced he's an elite back anymore... I expect more passing this year as a whole, but they'll still need an effective ground game... defensively, the addition of Ray Edwards should do wonders to help John Abraham and Babineaux up front, but the secondary is what will make the defense go... the nickelback job between Owens and Franks is the biggest question, but it wouldn't hurt to get Pro Bowl production (and health) from Dunta Robinson... I think this is the best roster in the division, and with that, I give them the slight nod...
  2. New Orleans (11-5) - Yeah, I found 11 here too... Drew Brees is the class of the position in this division until otherwise noted, and he has the most weapons (quantity-wise) in the Ingram/Thomas/Colston/Meachem/Moore 5-some... add in Jimmy Graham (who is a big time industry sleeper) and this should be the same explosive offense that we're accustomed to... the defense is where I scoff a bit... I don't see them getting any pass rush and the DBs aren't good enough to consistently hold up without that... on the Super Bowl team, they made their bones causing TOs and they'll need that again, but it's tough to generate without explosive play in the front 4...
  3. Tampa Bay Bucs (7-9) - Hmm... That seems low, yes?... I don't think so... the funny thing is, I think the Bucs could be BETTER in 2011 and finish with 7 wins... harder schedule, won't sneak up on anyone, and they were only +23 in point differential... I actually like Josh Freeman (was dead wrong on him coming out of the draft), but I'm not sold on Blount, and outside of Mike Williams, I'm not a believer in the other options (bleh, Kellen Winslow?)... They get Talib back at CB and that helps, but Ronde isn't getting any younger on the other side, and they're going to need 100% health on that side of the ball (namely from Talib and McCoy) because they inexplicably didn't spend any money in free agency... they'll be competitive, but I see a step back...
  4. Carolina Panthers (4-12) - I'm not a Cam believer in Year one... at all... and yet, I still think they can't be as bad as last year... they got NOTHING from the QB position last year, had banged up RBs all year including the loss of Deangelo for the year, and things snowballed... Cam will win a game at some point with his legs and playmaking this year, and that's better than what they had or what Clausen would've given them... the offense is bad... but the defense is... not awful!... Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, Charles Johnson... all nice players... and if they get respectable secondary play, that'll be a league-average unit... I'm trying here...
Stay tuned for the final 2 divisions...

2011 NFL Preview: Part 5 - NFC West

Ah, the hapless NFC West...
  1. St. Louis Rams (9-7) - Sam Bradford leads the troops... and that alone is enough to win this division... I think he makes a pretty big leap in Year 2, and Steven Jackson is still an elite RB in my opinion... the receiving corps is pretty sparse, but I do like Danny Amendola as a possession guy... Mike Sims-Walker is a head case, but he provides their most legit talent at wide-out in a long time... the defense has some top guys in Chris Long and James Laurinaitis, but the overall talent is pretty average... they basically win the division by default...
  2. Seattle Seahawks (7-9) - Okay, I'm going to say this... I kind of think the Tarvaris Jackson move is a decent gamble (avoids lightning strike).... the guy has a +.500 record in his career and clearly has a big-time arm... that said, I have no faith in him either... the receiving corps wass pretty bad overall in 2010, but Mike Williams is a nice talent and they've added Sidney Rice... Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett return to form the RB duo and while they won't win any games (short of the ridiculous playoff run by Lynch), they won't kill you either... whether they compete with STL for me comes down to the defense... My concern is in the secondary where Marcus Trufant still resides, and they're going to need some help from the pass rush...
  3. Arizona Cardinals (7-9) - Kevin Kolb... do you believe?... I kind of do from the standpoint of "clear upgrade over what they had before".... I think he'll be league-average, and if he's that, that'll be a decent offense with Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy Beanie Wells (hahahaha)... they replace Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie with rookie Patrick Peterson and that shouldn't be a downgrade, so if they get health/production from vets like Adrian Wilson and Joey Porter? Shouldn't be an embarrassing unit...
  4. San Francisco 49ers (6-10) - Can we PLEASE give up on Alex Smith already!??! How is this guy still penciled in?... anyway... that alone is enough to write them off IMO, but the Frank Gore injury uncertainty coupled a banged up Crabtree AND a new system? Good luck on offense... it may be the best defense in the division, but they won't score enough for Patrick Willis and company to win games....
Enjoy...

2011 NFL Preview: Part 4 - AFC East

The good and the bad...
  1. New England Patriots (13-3) - You know I love the Pats... Tom Brady is still the answer to the "what QB do you want" question for me, and they've upgraded their O-line in the past week with the addition of Brian Waters... the running back tandem of the Lawfirm (Benjarvus Green-Ellis) and Danny Woodhead is nothing spectacular, but it doesn't need to be with Brady... the major concern? lack of receiving options, right? Well, I'm a believer in Ochocinco as a legit target, Welker is still virtually unstoppable in the slot, and Aaron Hernandez is basically a Dallas Clark clone in that it's like having a 3rd receiver there... add the sure-handed Rob Gronkowski and you have a pretty nice unit of pass-catchers... the defense is the more concerning unit, with some notoriously "Belichickian" decisions lately highlighted by the abrupt release of Brandon Meriweather, their pro bowl safety... all that said, the defensive line could be scary with Vince Wilfork, Albert Haynesworth (seemingly motivated), Shaun Ellis, etc. and that's without talking about Jerod Mayo who is a stud... I think this is your AFC favorite...
  2. New York Jets (10-6) - Here we go with the Jets... are they underrated? overrated? Well, I have them winning 10... the defense is the story and should be an elite unit yet again... the Revis/Cromartie/Wilson trio is enough to anchor any defensive backfield, and when you can team that with guys like Bart Scott and David Harris at LB? Scary back 7... the D-line is more of a question than last year with the loss of Ellis and others, but it should still be an elite defense... offensively, there are weapons in Greene/LDT combined with Santonio Holmes and Derrick Mason on the outside... I'm not putting much credence in the Plaxico signing, but with a full year of Holmes and a progression from Sanchez, it should be a good, but not great, offense...
  3. Buffalo Bills (7-9) - A lot of people crap on the Bills... I'm not going to be one of them... they were very competitive last year, and I'm a believer in Fitzpatrick... he's not going to win you games, but he's surprisingly competent, and with the unearthing of Stevie Johnson last year, they have a legit receiver... the loss of Lee Evans leaves a gaping hole on the opposite side, but with Fred Jackson and the hopefully improved CJ Spiller, they should be pretty good in the backfield... on defense, they could be surprisingly good up front with Stroud and Schobel anchoring things, but the question marks are at cornerback... not a bad unit...
  4. Miami Dolphins (4-12) - This could be bad... first off, I don't think Chad Henne is awful... yes, I'm a homer for him from his Michigan days, and I don't think he's ever going to be very good, but he gets a bad wrap... that said, this is a bad, bad offense... the running back tandem of Reggie Bush (yikes) and Daniel Thomas (eesh) isn't exactly Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in their primes, and their only legit wideout is a psycho (Brandon Marshall)... yeah... the secondary has some good talent with Vontae Davis, Yeremiah Bell, and Sean Smith, but the front 7 is "meh"... this isn't a good team....
Enjoy... stay tuned for the NFC upcoming...

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

2011 NFL Preview: Part 3 - AFC North

Greetings all... let's get to it...
  1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - The class of the division... they have the QB I trust the most (Roethlisberger), the most offensive weapons (Mendenhall, Wallace, et al), AND the best defense? I don't see any issue here... I actually think Ben will be better this year than he was in 2010 without the distractions from last year, and he's got some underrated receivers in Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders, and Antonio Brown... on defense? The major players return with big-time guys like Hampton and Smith up front with the best linebacking corps in the league led by Harrison and Woodley... Basically, I love the Steelers...
  2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6) - Yes, they won 12 games last year... and I still like the Ravens, so why take a step back? well, first of all they were hilariously lucky in the turnover margin category last year, and that's bound to regress... and secondly, it's really difficult to go 12-4 with just a +87 scoring margin on the season... so yeah, if they are the same team? They should lose 2-3 less games... I think Flacco is steady and should be as good or better as last year, I LOVE Ray Rice out of the backfield, but the receiving options leave a bit to be desired after Boldin with the loss of Mason and Heap... the defense is still very good and talented, but Ray Lewis is a year older (and worse) and they haven't addressed the cornerback situation much either... On the bright side, they bring back Haloti Ngata who may be the best defensive player you don't know... this is a playoff team...
  3. Cleveland Browns (7-9) - This is a bit of a bump for them... and it's all about Colt McCoy for me... I think he's solid... 61% completion as a rookie who wasn't expected to play, and while he STILL doesn't have any weapons, I think he takes a small step forward, and teamed with Peyton Hillis, that offense won't be terrible.. they were middle of the pack last year in scoring D and total D and with a young nucleus led by Joe Haden and TJ Ward on the back-end, that should hold pat... and basically, somebody has to win some more games here...
  4. Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) - Bleh... this could get ugly... Carson Palmer isn't walking through the door, and while he was pretty bad last year, that'd still be better than whatever they get from rookie Andy Dalton this year... I'm actually not all that down on Dalton, but with Cedric Benson's corpse and a bad receiving corps outside of rookie AJ Green, he's not going to get any help, and it could be ugly early... on defense, they do return pro bowl CB Leon Hall, but the front 7 isn't too intimidating... interested to see what Nate Clements has in the tank on the other side as he replaces Jonathan Joseph... This is certainly the dregs of the division, but on the bright side for Bengal fans, AJ Green and Dalton get some experience...
Enjoy...

Sunday, September 4, 2011

9/4: CFB Wrap, etc.

Greetings all... let's touch on what happened on Saturday...
  • LSU 40, Oregon 27 - I'll say this... I thought this was more a result of Oregon looking bad than LSU looking good... the Ducks turned the ball over 4 times, including a fumble-return TD, and those TOs led to 20 total points for LSU that Oregon couldn't overcome... playing without Cliff Harris (their best corner and returnman) really hurt Oregon, but I was pretty uninspired by Darren Thomas as well... some props to LSU though... Jarrett Lee was average as grits (10 of 22 for 98 yards) but didn't do Jarrett Lee things like throw INTs and fumble, and they ran the ball for 175 yards to wear down Oregon late... pretty much knocks Oregon out of any national title discussion... oops...
  • Boise State 35, Georgia 21 - Boise pretty much cruised in this one... by the time Aaron Murray hit Orson Charles for a long TD late in the 3rd, it was already 28-7 Boise and almost out of reach... basically, the UGA offense couldn't muster anything sustainable for 3 quarters (i.e. they had 7 points on 1 80-yard run), and once Kellen Moore got comfortable, it was lights out... the Boise QB was 28 of 34 for 261 and 3 TDs in a virtual road game against a real opponent... big-time stuff... at any rate, be prepared to hear calls for Mark Richt's head, because that's what happens, however stupid it may be...
  • Auburn 42, Utah State 38 - If you didn't see this game, you're wondering why I'm talking about it... well, USU led by 10 with 2:30 to go... and with some help from an onside kick (and an awful defensive attempt on it by USU), Auburn pulled it out... I already didn't feel good about Auburn this year, and now, those feelings are confirmed with visuals... they can't stop anybody (again) and Cam Newton isn't walking through that door...
  • South Florida 23, Notre Dame 20 - This result shouldn't be as "shocking" as some may have been portraying it... I have USF winning the Big East outright, so them winning here isn't ridiculous, but Notre Dame's offense looked putrid for a half in this one, and they got too far behind.. Interesting to note that Tommy Rees led the comeback, not Dayne Crist... stay tuned for that battle as they try to avoid an 0-2 start against Michigan... in the big house... at night...
And a gratuitous Michigan mention...
  • Michigan 34, Western Michigan 10 - I can sort of get away with breaking this down because it DID have a rare occurrence... this one was called near the end of the 3rd quarter due to weather... previous to that? I actually enjoyed what I saw... Al Borges is letting Denard be Denard by putting him in the shotgun some and letting him run (check), Greg Mattison actually made an in-game adjustment on defense and they slammed the door on a quietly good WMU offense after 1 drive (check), and Brady Hoke actually made me feel okay on the sideline... he looked comfortable...
Elsewhere...
  • The Braves go down in 10 innings... not a whole lot of focus on this one, but Mike Minor looked good (a positive), and I'm not overly concerned...
  • Brandon Meriweather was cut by the Pats... and signed with the Bears... this is noteworthy because he's BEEN TO THE PRO BOWL THE LAST 2 YEARS.... I haven't heard a Pats explanation, but this is soooo Belichick... jeez...
Stay tuned this week for the rest of the NFL Previews and more...

Friday, September 2, 2011

Week 1 College Football Preview

Greetings all... let's take a look at what's on tap for the college football weekend... Quick note: Please remember to check out the season preview posts!...
  • Oregon vs. LSU - 8:00 ABC (@ Cowboys Stadium) - Game of the week for me here without too much discussion... Gotta think LSU will have the homefield advantage in Dallas with that fan base in a night game, but they're obviously dealing with the loss of Jordan Jefferson and Russel Shepard for this one... I'm on record saying Jefferson isn't a big loss because he's wholly underwhelmed me in the past, but Jarrett Lee has been awful in limited time, so if he lights things on fire, it wouldn't surprise me.... Oregon's going to score points (even on that LSU defense), and I really like them in this matchup... Thinking something in the 31-24 type of range in Oregon's favor...
  • Boise State vs. Georgia - 8:00 ESPN (@ Georgia Dome) - Default home game for Georgia... let's start out with that... I think Boise has the better offense simply because I trust Kellen Moore more than Aaron Murray and the Boise O-line has been very, very good recently... that said, Boise lost both starting wideouts, so they'll need to find some production... the Boise defense returns pretty much in full, and I think they'll have enough to keep Georgia under wraps... the key is the Georgia running game vs. the Boise front 7 for me... and because I haven't seen anyone on the UGA roster run the ball effectively in major college football? Give me the Broncos in a tight one...
  • South Florida @ Notre Dame - 3:30 NBC - First of all, the 10.5 point line is absurd... Notre Dame is at home, and probably the better team... but double-digits? come on... I'm higher on USF than most (picked them to win the Big East, etc.) and I like BJ Daniels a lot... I'm picking ND in a tight one because I like Crist, and they have the more talented defense, but this should be the 3rd best game of the day...
  • Minnesota @ USC - 3:30 ABC - I really just want to see how USC responds to another year without bowl chances... that's a talented team, and Minnesota STINKS, but they have a new coach and should show up here... I'd definitely pick Minnesota on the line (they're getting 24), but USC should win fairly easily...
  • Tulsa @ Oklahoma - 8:00 FX - Yes, FX has football games... and that's the main reason for posting this game... but Tulsa can score... they ALWAYS score... so I want to see if the vaunted Oklahoma defense can dominate like we've heard they will...
  • SMU @ Texas A&M - 7:30 Sunday - I'm down on Texas A&M and I think SMU is winning C-USA this year... upset alert....
I'll do you all a favor and not break down Michigan/Western Mich. in this space... but look for the Denard Robinson for Heisman campaign to kick off in a big, big way in the Big House at 3:30 Saturday on ESPN2...

Enjoy!

9/2: Chris Johnson, Football Kicks Off, etc...

Okay... I'm back... and yes, I've said it before... and yes, I've failed before... but here we are, back in time for football... let's get going on what transpired yesterday...
  • Chris Johnson inks a $53 million deal with the Titans... no surprise to me to see him get into camp before the season starts... what WAS a surprise is that he only got $1 million more guaranteed than Deangelo Williams, in the same off-season! That seems pretty crazy to me... anyway, top-5 back comes back...
  • CFB Round-Up.... Wisconsin played dial-a-score with UNLV and was leading 51-3 before calling off the dogs... that's a darkhorse national championship team with Russell Wilson under center (love him)... Mississippi State suspended a bunch of guys pregame... and then routed Memphis anyway... and Georgia Tech hung 63 on Western Carolina including 300+ yards... PASSING... I'm sure that was a quality secondary on the other end...
  • Ohio State suspends 3 more plays due to impermissible benefits... I'm out of jokes... but I'm still very much enjoying this...
  • Frank McCourt has been reportedly offered $1.2 billion for the Dodgers... aka the biggest slam dunk in the history of Earth... go away Frank... coincidentally, that would be the largest sum ever for an MLB team
  • And finally... the Braves get a 5-2 win behind 2-4 from the J-Hey Kid and bombs from Chipper and McCann.... the big story though? Tim Hudson is a man...
Stay tuned for a very quick college football weekend preview later in the day... and remember to forgive me after writing a giant preview this week...

2011 NFL Preview: Part 2 - AFC South

Back again... this time with the AFC South...
  1. Houston Texans (9-7) - I'm planting the flag... as longtime readers may know, I'm consistently down on the Texans.. but I'm picking them here... Schaub/Foster/Johnson form a really nice triumvirate on offense, and that unit has consistently performed... it's the defense where I'm more confident than normal this year... the Johnathan Joseph signing was HUGE for them, and I'm really high on him as a #1 corner... add that to Mario Williams, a healthy Demeco Ryans, and high draft pick JJ Watt, and that's suddenly a talented unit... Now, as you see, I have them winning 9 games... and the fact that they're winning this division is an indication of the mediocrity of the division, but here we are...
  2. Indianapolis Colts (9-7) - This would be their worst year in a long, long time... I'd probably give them 10 or 11 wins if Peyton was healthy coming into the season, but with the uncertainty of his neck problem, it's kind of a gift to even give them 9... this is a team that relies SO heavily on Peyton's immense talent and without that certainty, it's difficult to gauge them... Reggie Wayne is still elite and I trust him, but outside of that on offense? Clark (coming off injury), Collie (huge injury risk), and Addai (ditto to Collie) can't be trusted... and oh yeah, the O-line could be a disaster... and that doesn't even get into the defense... Freeney returns to lead the D, but there is a lack of talent, and it doesn't even have the "if Bob Sanders stays healthy" corollary like usual... Kelvin Hayden is gone at CB (to Atlanta), and recent high draft picks (i.e. Jerry Hughes) haven't picked it up.... 9 wins is out of respect for Peyton...
  3. Tennessee Titans (8-8) - Are we sensing the mediocrity theme?... I'm actually higher on the Titans than most, and with the news (today actually), that Chris Johnson has signed and will report, that bumps them to 8-8... I actually LIKE Matt Hasselbeck... yes, he has some injury concerns and age, but he's steady, and he won't get you beat... add in CJ as the electrifying back, and the Kenny Britt factor (huge, huge upside), and that could be a decent offense... also, I really like Jared Cook... the North Gwinnett High school product came on late last year, and is an athletic, receiving tight end in the Gates mold... on defense, they were a wreck last year, which was really uncharacteristic of that organization, but they had some injuries and things got out of hand... I look for a resurgence on that side of the ball, and some competitive games in this division...
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-10) - I just don't see it... David Garrard has never been a guy I've liked, and now with the distinct possibility that we'll see Blaine Gabbert? I'll pass on Jacksonville... MJD is a bit banged up, but still an elite back when he's in there so that's a plus, but the receiving corps is pretty bad (even losing Sims-Walker too) outside of Mercedes Lewis... the D should be better with the addition of Paul Posluszny, Clint Session, and Matt Roth, but "better than last year" doesn't make this a good defense... I think I see a 5-7 type start, the insertion of Gabbert, and the wheels coming off a bit...
Stay tuned for Part 3...

Thursday, September 1, 2011

2011 NFL Preview: Part 1 - AFC West

Greetings all... you already know what's going down... 9-part NFL Preview with all 8 divisions and a comprehensive playoff/award post... let's kick it off with the semi-hapless AFC West...
  1. San Diego Chargers (11-5) - The class of the division... this is the only team with a top-10 QB in the presence of Mr. Philip Rivers, and that gives them the edge from the jump... they lost Darren Sproles in the off-season, but with the healthy Mathews/Tolbert tandem, they're set at RB, and while the "receiving" corps is uninspiring after Vincent Jackson, we can't forget that they have the best tight end alive in Antonio Gates, who functions as a receiver more often than not... they're going to score points... on defense? Some old faces (namely Mr. Merriman) have gone elsewhere, and while some talent remains, this is the more questionable unit... I really like the back-end with Bob Sanders and Eric Weddle at safety, but the front 7 has some questions... at any rate, they should cruise to the division title simply by lack of options...
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) - The Chiefs won the AFC West last year... did you forget that? I almost did... they started out scorching hot, and held on for dear life... Jamaal Charles is a top-5 running back and maybe the most exciting ball carrier this side of Chris Johnson... teamed with Thomas Jones, that's a potent ground game... the issue is the ability of Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, and company to produce some yards and points in the passing game... Bowe had an all-pro type year in 2010, but it was spotty, especially down the stretch, and I don't fully trust Cassel... they've added Steve Breaston in the offseason, and I thought that was a sneaky good move to add a secondary target... on defense, they are young and talented... Eric Berry is electrifying and they've gotten big-time production from OLB Tamba Hali (who they just locked up to an extension)... the key for this unit is Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey... both former top-5 picks have been underwhelming for various reasons (injury, etc.) and they'll need one or both to step up... the 8 wins is more an indictment of my feelings on Cassel, and if he plays well? That number grows, but the Chiefs beat one (yes, one) team with a winning record in 2010... keep that in mind...
  3. Oakland Raiders (7-9) - The Al Davis roadshow... new coach (again)... but (gasp) the SAME offense for Jason Campbell two years in a row?!? Crazy talk for a guy who literally hasn't played in the same system twice since HIGH SCHOOL... that can only help, and I'm actually a Campbell believer of sorts... he won't carry you, but I think he's better than he gets credit for... Darren McFadden was electric last year and showed why he was so highly regarded coming out of college... the injury risk is still there with DMC, but Michael Bush was brought back for insurance... the receiving corps? Kind of a mess... Jacoby Ford is really fast, and so is Heyward-Bey, but that's about it... not a "reliable" option in the bunch, but I did like the Kevin Boss signing at TE... the big defensive defection was Nnamdi of course, but it's actually a pretty talented unit with vets like Seymour and Tommy Kelly coupled with young guys like Rolando McClain... I think McFadden gets banged up and they don't get any real production from the wideouts...
  4. Denver (5-11) - Back to back 4 and 5 win seasons? Yikes... they "should" be better than this with Kyle Orton (because he's leaps and bounds better than Tim Tebow at the moment), but that doesn't take into account how bad this defense is... the guys you know (Brian Dawkins, Champ Bailey, etc.) are past their primes, and they CONTINUE to miss on draft pick after draft pick... that said, the Von Miller/Elvis Dumervil pass-rush combo could change that... those 2 are big-time... back to the offense.... Orton is average as can be, and I STILL think you'll see Tebow by season's end simply because Orton isn't taking them anywhere... Knowshon Moreno has high-end talent but seems to be banged up all the time, and Willis McGahee is his insurance/goal-line guy.... Brandon Lloyd... hm.. what do you even say... I don't believe... there it is... I think Denver is more competitive than last year, but doesn't sniff the playoffs...
There it is... stay tuned for Part 2 covering the AFC South...

Football. Is. Back.

See the above title... College Football kicks off tonight with some lackluster games (Wisconsin/UNLV is probably the highlight at 8:00 on ESPN) and while I yearn for a big-time Thursday game to kick it off... I won't complain here... oh, and for local interest, Georgia Tech tees it up with Western Carolina on ESPN3.com at 7:30...

The moral of the story? Lets get it.

Oh, and as of this post, we're 48 hours from Michigan Football as well, and while that's merely a selfish countdown, I don't particularly care. Beat the Broncos.

2011 College Football Preview: Part 7 - Awards and Predictions

Greetings all... before we get to the national awards, etc. I want to hit Notre Dame and Boise State quickly... they are the only 2 non-major conference programs with BCS chances this year IMO... Notre Dame wins 9 games for me behind D. Crist if he stays healthy, and Brian Kelly has won wherever he's been... also, not a typically difficult Notre Dame schedule, so they could easily win 10 and get a BCS at-large... for Boise? I think they go 11-1 after an opening loss to Georgia in a virtual road game...

Here we go...

Top 5's
  • QBs - Andrew Luck (Stanford), Denard Robinson (Michigan), Kellen Moore (Boise), Case Keenum (Houston), Landry Jones (Oklahoma)
  • RBs - LaMichael James (Oregon), Trent Richardson (Alabama), Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina), James White (Wisconsin), Lance Dunbar (North Texas)
  • WRs - Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina), Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State), Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma), Greg Childs (Arkansas), Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)
  • TEs - Orson Charles (Georgia), Michael Egnew (Missouri), David Paulson (Oregon), George Bryan (NC State), Kevin Koger (Michigan)
  • OLs (all positions) - Barrett Jones (Alabama), Nate Potter (Boise), Brandon Washington (Miami), Bradley Sowell (Ole Miss), Mike Adams (Ohio State)
  • DEs - Brandon Jenkins (Florida State), Ronald Powell (Florida), Devin Taylor (South Carolina), Bruce Irvin (West Virginia), Quinton Coples (UNC)
  • DTs - Jared Crick (Nebraska), Mike Martin (Michigan), Jerel Worthy (Michigan State), Tydreke Powell (North Carolina), Kheeston Randall (Texas)
  • LBs - Dunt'a Hightower (Alabama), Manti Te'o (Notre Dame), Luke Kuechly (Boston College), Sean Spence (Miami) if he plays, Travis Lewis (Oklahoma)
  • Safeties - Mark Barron (Alabama), Markelle Martin (Oklahoma State), TJ McDonald (USC), Robert Lester (Alabama), Trenton Robinson (Michigan State)
  • CBs - Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama), Cliff Harris (Oregon), Morris Claiborne (LSU), Shaun Prater (Iowa), Jayron Hosley (Virginia Tech)
Heisman (100% sure to be wrong)
  1. Denard Robinson, QB Michigan (yes, I'm a homer, doesn't mean I'm wrong)
  2. Trent Richardson, RB Alabama
  3. James White, RB Wisconsin
National Champs
  • Alabama over Oklahoma
And that'll do it... Please be sure to check out the Big 6 conference previews below for more coverage, etc.... Let's kick it off right...