Tuesday, November 30, 2010

NBA: Re-Seeding...

Greetings all... Taking the opportunity to call a mulligan on myself from the NBA season predictions column... Re-ranking the teams (for the regular season only) with a small write-up of what I've seen so far...

West (Previous in Parentheses)
  1. LA Lakers (LAL) - The Champs.... a 13-4 start, and while San Antonio has the better record, there's no evidence that there's any real trouble in LA... to the point where I think (aloud) that they may be better without Bynum... hear me out... Sure, if Bynum is okay with a 20-minute-per backup center role? That's the ideal scenario... but if they try to integrate him fully as a default-starter? I don't like.. Gasol and Odom are playing too well, and any knock to their minutes/roles would be a mistake IMO... Still the favorites...
  2. San Antonio (DAL) - Man the Spurs are playing great basketball... Career-best efficiency numbers from Manu and Parker, the best shooting numbers of Richard Jefferson's career (where did that come from?), productivity from young guys like Blair, Splitter, Hill, and Neal... and they're doing it all with career-worst production from Duncan (14 and 9)? I think a little of this is a decline in attempts (noted), but Duncan's lost a half-step at least... they have their best supporting cast since the title runs though, and they are the most serious Western threat to LA...
  3. Dallas (OKC) - Is Dirk the MVP so far? I've heard rumblings... and full-out shouting from Bill Simmons... 26 points, 8 boards, 55/38/85 percentages, and he's doing it all without a real 2nd banana... anyway, other than Dirk, Tyson Chandler is the key to them for me... he's giving them 9/9/2 in just 27 minutes, and has really amped it up on defense (to make up for Haywood's lack of production thus far, nice signing Mark Cuban!)... the key to them making a deep run? Either getting throwback production from Caron Butler (he's been bad) or getting him off that roster somehow... he's a ball-stopper...
  4. New Orleans (SA) - Chris Paul has been the best player in the league this season by 3 different statistical projections (most notably Hollinger's PER)... the guy is great... and just because we (collectively) forgot about him, doesn't excuse it... 17/10/3 steals, and only 11 FGAs a game while running his squad... there's likely a regression coming from the rest of his team, but Okafor is integrated this year, they still haven't gotten max production from Ariza (will it ever come?), and I love the Jarrett Jack move as a 3rd guard that can back Paul up AND be their crunch-time 2-guard when needed...
  5. OKC (HOU) - First... the positives... Russell Westbrook has made the leap... averaging 24 and 9 (as the 2nd option!? wow), with over 2 steals per and legitimately becoming a star... and Serge Ibaka has become a reliable big for them (11/7/2 in 27 min)... but there are more questions than we thought... Durant is mired in a shooting slump (27% threes on the year) and hasn't been nearly as efficient as he was in 2009-10... they're getting below average production from James Harden (sigh) and Krstic, and still lack front-court depth mostly because lottery pick Cole Aldrich is in the D-league... I'm not worried about Durant (at all) but the others?.. eh...
  6. Utah (POR) - Utah's starting 5 is very, very talented/good.... Williams/Bell/AK47/Millsap/Jefferson is nice even if you don't think Bell (or Miles) is a starter (duh).... but the problem is this bench... Ronnie Price... Francisco Elson... Earl Watson...Fesenko... that smells... so there are limits here... but Deron Williams is playing great (22/10), Jefferson is coming along (up to 17 and 9) now and Paul Millsap is doing his best to make up the Boozer slack... there's a ceiling, but they are fantastically coached (always with Sloan), and they'll hang with anyone...
  7. Portland (UTA) - They take a bit of a dive on the Brandon Roy injury front (now publicly limiting his minutes), and the news that Oden is out for the year (not factored in the preseason)... fortunately for Portland, they have frontcourt depth with Camby and Aldridge (with Pryzbilla on the way), and Wesley Matthews has done yeoman's work in Roy's place... I still think it's a playoff team as long as Roy doesn't continue to go down for long periods... well-coached too, and I almost forgot to mention Nic Batum's jump... he's defending everyone (save Durant) in dominant fashion, and his offensive game (13 a game on 46%) is improving...
  8. Denver (DEN) - I officially think Melo will finish the season in Denver (for some reason)... so they land in front of Phoenix... the Birdman/K-mart injuries have really, really hurt their depth... but they somehow unearthed Gary Forbes (who!?) and have gotten semi-reasonable production (trying to be nice) from the Landlord, Shelden Williams.... they've offset Billups decline with a slight ascension from Lawson, and Afflalo is taking minutes from the clinically insane JR Smith... I still don't think they're much of a threat.. but as long as Melo is there and they can get healthy? not an easy matchup...
  9. Phoenix (NO) - Didn't like the composition of the team... and I still don't?... but they land in front of the also-rans and move up a spot by default because of Houston's struggles... Nash has been typically great (19/10 with 49/36/88 percentages), and they've gotten nice production from Richardson (21 and 5), Hill, and even Warrick... but I don't think Hedo fits at all (he's not very good without the ball in his hands), and they've effectively jumped off the Robin Lopez wagon... which I don't understand... at any rate, they don't scare anyone long-term, but if they make shots, they can beat anyone... basically the same old story but with less talent, and a worse composition... nice!
  10. Houston (PHX) - My worst call of the year to date... In fairness, they've gotten a COMBINED 10 games from Aaron Brooks and Yao Ming... aka 2 of their best 4 players... but I thought the collective depth here would be enough to offset injury concerns with Yao... whoops... any way, when Brooks gets back, their record will improve because 1) he's good, and 2) Ish Smith isn't good... The Battier/Lee/Budinger trio has not played well at all and that's the root of alot of the issues... Battier and Budinger are shooting a combined 37% (yikes) and Lee has been unimpressive... all that is negative so here's a positive... Luis Scola is a beast... they just locked him up at a very reasonable price, and he responded with 21 and 9 so far this year... he's playing lights-out...
  11. Memphis (LAC) - Similar to Utah in that depth is the major issue IMO... They've tried (repeat: tried) to address it by moving OJ Mayo to the bench... It's admirable, but I doubt it sticks... anyway, the "big" move they made was locking down Mike Conley for 5 years at 45 million... anyone who knows me, knows I love Mike Conley like a brother... and yet, even I thought it was an overpayment... but I digress... Rudy Gay has pleasantly surprised this year (22 and 7 per) but Mayo and Randolph have regressed a bit, and Marc Gasol has regressed ALOT (per the numbers)... the bench is actually a bit deeper than last year with guys like Tony Allen and Xavier Henry arriving... but not enough to compete... it's a similar problem to the Hawks (although even less talented) in that they have a definitive ceiling they can't seem to break through, so why lock guys down?
  12. Golden State (MEM) - One of the league's best surprises so far... 8-9 at time of press here, and playing even better than that when David Lee is on the floor... Monta Ellis is trying (and thus far, succeeding) in proving everyone, including me, wrong about him, averaging 25 per game this year and co-existing peacefully with the team's best player, Stephen Curry.... Curry is averaging 20 pts, 6 dimes, 2 steals in only 33 minutes and shooting 47/40/89 percentages... crazily efficient... I'm not the biggest David Lee fan as a leading guy... but he certainly can score and rebound (just can't defend at all), and he helps them alot up front... the biggest key (other than Ellis) so far though? Andris Biedrins is healthy and playing... averaging 8 points, and 10 boards while providing (some) resistance defensively up front... huge for them
  13. LA Clippers (SAC) - At least the future is bright?... Not a whole lot positive to say about this season so far... but with Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin averaging 45 combined points? That helps... their chances at competing this year have been murdered by Chris Kaman's health (and poor play) and Baron Davis' health (and terrible play)... it helps them going forward to get Deandre Jordan and Eric Bledsoe extended time... but it certainly doesn't help them compete this year... on the bright side, Al-Farouq Aminu is better than most people thought he'd be already averaging 8 points per (in only 19 min) and being nearly league-average in efficiency...
  14. Minnesota (GS) - How can I pull Minnesota out of the bottom spot, you ask? It's more an indictment on the Kings... but Kevin Love is an absolute beast, leading the league in rebounding and throwing up 20-20s every other night... and Michael Beasley suddenly is finding his stride averaging 22 and 6 (and nearly 30 in the last 10)... even Darko (!) is getting in on the act playing league-average (or better) lately... the problems are still there... point guard play is below-average (and flat-out bad without Ridnour), Corey Brewer has taken a step back, and their bench has been woeful... but they stole Beasley, and if Darko plays this way...?... Okay I'll stop there
  15. Sacramento (MIN) - Man, are they bad... Tyreke Evans numbers are down across the board, and as the team's best player, his season PER is under 15 (league average, again)... Demarcus Cousins is showing off his head-case tendencies almost daily now, and insists on shooting threes... they have exactly ONE guy playing above his head right now (Francisco Garcia), and even Carl Landry, who I love, is only putting up 13 a game on 46% shooting... the main problems (other than Evans' seeming regression) is the makeup of the frontcourt... between Dalembert, Cousins, & Thompson, none is playing particularly well, and they seem primed to make a deal... it's getting ugly... they are certainly more talented than Minnesota, but I don't see the same (although bleak) signs of life...
EAST
  1. Orlando (MIA) - Full disclosure... Boston is the best team in the East... period... but I also know that Doc will shut guys down, limit minutes, etc. and that opens the door for Orlando to get homecourt.... Dwight is playing the best basketball of his career... my preseason MVP pick (and I stand by it), is averaging 23 points, 12 boards, 2+ blocks, and even 1+ steals... easily the best scoring numbers of his career and he's getting more polished... that's the main bright spot... other than Jameer Nelson (who's playing well), every other "big-time" contributor isn't as good as they should be/have been... Rashard Lewis has been flat-out bad, shooting 41% and averaging about 12 per... Vince is hurt (again), and the Richardson/Duhon additions haven't really worked out.... on the bright side? They're still 12-4 despite all these things (i.e. Dwight is really, really good) and they've decided, mercifully, to start playing Brandon Bass, who's responded with very nice play... I think they'll win 57-59 and that'll probably be enough...
  2. Boston (ORL) - As said above... best in the East... 6 guys averaging double-digits... deepest team around (even with the West injury), and Rondo is a machine (14 dimes per)... haven't even mentioned the big 3 yet... but they are there, and Garnett looks better than I thought he would (16 and 9 this year) on both ends... not a whole lot to add other than they'll be scary if and when they are fully healthy (i.e. Perkins/Shaq/JO all up front)... they'll put it on cruise control and win 55-ish
  3. Chicago (BOS) - Toughest team to evaluate, maybe in the whole league (other than Miami, obv)... Boozer should debut sometime this week, and that'll be a key obviously.. but they are playing very well without him... Rose is quietly averaging 27 (27!) a game with 8 assists and is the unquestioned leader... Noah is doing Noah things (i.e. 13 boards and great defense) but he's more polished offensively too... this is going to come down to how they integrate Boozer, and the play of the wing guys (Deng, Korver, Brewer)... but this is a talented TEAM that fits well together, and I like them alot going forward... would be a great series with them at full strength vs. Boston
  4. Miami (CHI) - Do I even need to do this write-up? You hear about them ad nauseum... 2 great players, 1 very good player, 1 good player who isn't playing (Mike Miller), 5 serviceable-ish players (Big Z, Jones, House, Arroyo, Haslem) that probably shouldn't be in your top 8... Okay then... Other than the obvious deficiencies... Wade looks out-of-sorts... I haven't seen him play this poorly in a long time... shooting only 44% (career 49%), his assists are way down (4 from almost 7), and he seems more hurt than he's letting on... It's amazing to me how many people didn't know the type of player Bosh actually is... his numbers are off from Toronto (they have to be), but his efficiency numbers? Very similar... his per 40 minute numbers? the same... he's not a great rebounder or defender (he's never been these things), and he's been getting killed more than he probably should... Oh... there's Lebron... Forget all the off-the-court stuff (doesn't matter to me)... I believe he needs to 1) Stop fighting the "point guard" role because when Mike Miller comes back? Their best 5 is LBJ/Wade/Miller/Bosh/Dampier aka Lebron is the point guard...and 2) Figure out how to get Wade established in games... We could talk about them all day.. but I'll say this... they'll be much more dangerous at the end of the year than they are now...
  5. Atlanta (ATL) - I addressed them yesterday (see the menu on the right of this page)... I think they're a 50-win team with a defined ceiling, but they're significantly better than anyone below them on this list...
  6. Indiana (MIL) - One of the more pleasant surprises in the league... I did have them 7th in my preseason look-ahead, but that was higher than most and Indiana has delivered... Granger is playing well (not surprisingly) but his numbers are even a little down from last year... the addition of Darren Collison (a huge upgrade over what they had in 2009 even without gaudy numbers so far), and the vast improvements from Roy Hibbert (a legitimate force now), and the power forward combo (Hansborough/McRoberts playing half-way decent) can't be overstated...
  7. Milwaukee (IND) - Disappointing start... I'm not ready to totally bail on the "fear the deer" campaign.. but it hasn't worked out as they'd hoped... John Salmons has killed them (36% shooting, sub-10 PER) so far now that he's been paid, Maggette is shooting 39% from the field, Bogut has been dinged up, and as well as Jennings has played at times, he's still not particularly efficient (39% FG, 35% 3s)... I think most of these numbers (definitely Bogut's) will improve, but it's tough to ignore some questionable fits here, i.e. Maggette playing for Skiles, and the overpayment of Salmons...
  8. New York (NY) - Hey... they can really score!... Amare is doing Amare things (23 and 9) and looking more comfortable every time I see them (i.e. less jumpers, more attacking).. I've always like Felton, and he's playing pretty much to the max even through fit questions in D'Antoni's offense because he's not a natural pick-n-roll guy... and I kinda like the Chandler/Gallinari combo... Chandler started well and has tailed off, Gallinari started awfully, and has picked it up... so they've off-set a bit.. they don't have a ton of depth, and the Anthony Randolph experiment is looking more downtrodden by the day... but this is an entertaining team, with real playoff chances in a bad East... and while I'm here.. check out my man Landry Fields... the undrafted product from Stanford (who got KILLED coming out of the draft) is producing as a rook...
  9. New Jersey (WAS) - I'm taking the limb a bit here... in fairness, I think there's a bit of a drop-off after NY... and I like NJ the best... so there... they picked up some real, NBA players on the wing (Morrow & Outlaw) to team with their young foundation in Lopez, Harris, and Favors, and it's done wonders for them... they compete every night, and when they have it going, it's kind of impressive... Harris is playing better than he did at any point last year, and even with Lopez taking a tiny step-back in production this year (down to 18 and 7), they've made up for it... I really like what I'm seeing (admittedly limited) from Favors... only about 19 minutes per thanks to the emergence of Kris Humphries (who's legit btw), but averaging 7 and 6 and has the 3rd highest rookie PER behind Wall and Griffin... if they can get ANYTHING from Terrence Williams (who they just sent to the D-league, sigh) and/or Troy Murphy... could challenge NY...
  10. Washington (PHI) - Giving them a slight pass b/c of the injury time missed by Wall and Arenas... but it needs to get better soon... Wall has been impressive when he's played (18 & 9 with a league-leading(!) 2.8 steals per) with flashes of complete brilliance... the more and more he improves his jumper, he'll be scary... but Gilbert still isn't very efficient (putting it mildly), Al Thornton is really bad, and Andray Blatche has the worst shot selection (not hyperbolic by the way) of anyone in the entire league... I'm of the belief that they have to move Arenas (duh) but they can't seem to find a taker, and 3 of their top 5 players are still 6'4 guards... Bright spot? Javale McGee is playing very well... 10 and 9 with 2.7 blocks and an elite-level 19.5 PER... he's still erratic and raw at times, but his skillset is crazy, and he's reigning it in a bit...
  11. Cleveland (CHA) - Okay, Cleveland... I was wrong... You still aren't a playoff team... but I underestimated you... At the same time? I don't understand how you're doing it!... Mo Williams is a nice player... 16 and 5 from your leading scorer though?... Hickson is nice too... 13 and 5... strong... and I love, love, love Varejao... but I don't know how they put the ball in the basket... ESPECIALLY while getting career-worst production from Jamison... but hey... to each his own Cleveland... don't disappoint me...
  12. Charlotte (NJ) - This is the least interesting team in the league.... not trainwreck-ish enough to cover your eyes (looking at you Toronto), not enough interesting young guys to keep your attention (Sacto/Minnesota)... just an ugly, defense-first team with a coach most people hate, and no one to focus on... I love Gerald Wallace.. he does EVERYTHING on the court from rebounding (8+ per) to playing lock-down D... but if he's your best player?... Not a good sign... their supporting guys have been quietly good... Ty Thomas and DJ Augustin are exceeding expectations, and Captain Jack is still nice... but the Brown/Diop/Mohammed center trio is abysmal and Fat Boris Diaw (how he is always referred to by me) isn't helping matters... say hello to 31-51
  13. Philly (DET) - Has anyone seen Andre Iguodala? Say Hi to him for me... because he isn't showing up... averaging less than 15 points (as the number option) down from 19-ish for the last 4 years... and generally disappointing... I still like Holiday and Williams in the backcourt... but when your "bright" spot through 20 games is Elton Brand averaging 16 and 8?... ugh... While we're here... Evan Turner STINKS so far... this should be mentioned more... league worst EWA (estimated wins added), an 8.5 PER (Josh Powell territory) and 41% FG, 10% 3s... he's bad... but STILL I don't know why they are as bad as they are... with Brand, Iguodala, Williams, Holliday, Young, Speights, Hawes, and Nocioni... they shouldn't be 13th worst in the East... but they are... and that's putting it nicely..
  14. Detroit (CLE) - The runner-up to Charlotte for least interesting team... 5 of their best 6 players (Price, Villanueva, Daye, Hamilton, Gordon) are wings... and that doesn't even count number 6 being a combo guard (Stuckey)... how does that work, Joe Dumars?... I'll apologize to Rodney Stuckey who's playing his best basketball of his career (17 and 5 on 46%), but other than that... there's not a whole lot to like... The most maddening thing of all though? Greg Monroe, the #6 overall pick big-man from Georgetown is only playing 16 minutes a night... in favor of rotting corpse Ben Wallace (25 per) and the 6'6 Jason Maxiell (20 per)... if you knew you aren't going to the playoffs, and you're not, put the guy in the game...
  15. Toronto (TOR) - Probably the least talented roster in the league... and yet I'll be a little positive... they probably should be ahead of Detroit.. 6-11 right now... I just don't see it continuing... their best player is a 7-foot jumpshooter (Bargnani) who can't rebound his way out of a box... their best (really,only) rebounder (Reggie Evans) is out for an extended time with injury, and they traded their best guard (Jarrett Jack) for a young combo guard who, to be kind, does not hesitate to go bombs-away... Their wings are up-and-coming in Derozan (who's been very good) and Weems (underrated), but this season (and probably the next couple) can be blamed on Bryan Colangelo for getting nothing for Bosh, including refusing to take Beasley back, and then spending $34 million on Amir Johnson... it's just a bad roster... and the Toronto basketball fans don't deserve it.. that's a top-5 fan base... alas...
There it is... and as an apology to Raps fans... I'll quote JE Skeets and say... Embrace the day, people...

11/30: Bad Football, TCU, etc.

Aloha everyone...
  • Monday Night Football was an abomination last night... 27-6 Niners, and some of the most putrid offense you'll ever see from Arizona... Before I systemically destroy Arizona... let me go ahead and say that I was very impressed with how Brian Westbrook looked (23 for 136) and Troy Smith seems to be semi-competent as well...Okay... Bad news? Frank Gore left the game with a hip injury, and since he's their unquestioned #1 guy, that spells trouble... now to AZ... 11 carries for 13 yards... for the team... Needless to say, being absolutely unable (and unwilling) to run the ball on a team with bad QB play isn't a recipe for success... and Beanie Wells should be considered a bust any moment now... As for Derek Anderson... he showed more "fight" in the postgame presser than he did at any point on the field... anytime a 51 QB rating (at home!) seems like it was too high for what you just saw? That's an issue... Signing Derek Anderson so you could let Matt Leinart go seems to be one of the most counter-productive decisions they could've been... nevermind that I think Leinart is on-field better... they also had millions upon millions invested in him, and they had just seen Anderson play one of the worst QB seasons of all time in 2009... good...
  • Breaking News (as I write this)... Adam Schefter reporting Frank Gore is out for the year... huge loss for whatever chances San Fran has left... Say hello to Brian Westbrook!
  • This just in... Lebron James and Erik Spoelstra are... "on the same page".... What does that mean? Your guess is as good as mine... but I'm in the camp that believes Pat Riley will NOT coach this team simply because he feels they can't win the title this year even with him coaching....
  • TCU to join the Big East in 2012-2013... this seems... odd?... Football is an obvious fit as they need a little punch in that particular sport right now... but TCU vs. St. John's in hoops?... Suddenly a 17-team all-sport conference? How does that work?
  • Troy Tulowitzki and the Rockies seem to have signed a giant extension... reportedly worth 7 years and 134 million (to start in 2013) that is a massive deal... he's definitely one of the prime talents in all of baseball, with the only caveat being a seeming injury concern, but at the same time, there isn't a single debilitating injury so nothing to point at as a reason not to extend him...
  • Andre Johnson and Courtland Finnegan... not suspended!... I'm not sure how, to be honest, in this current NFL that they didn't get canned for a game at least, but as an Andre Johnson fantasy owner, I applaud you Roger Goodell....
  • NBA Box Score Check - Al Jefferson and the Jazz beat up on Milwaukee... Al had 22 and 11 in the game, and Deron Williams added 22 and 10 dimes.... Russell Westbrook dropped 25 pts, 11 dimes, 5 boards, 5 steals in a win over New Orleans.... he and Durant combined for 51 points, and there is real groundswell that Westbrook is a top-15 guy in the league already... one negative for OKC? Durant is in a bonafied shooting slump... 23-86 from 3 on the season (27%) and 0-5 last night...

What to watch for...

  • ACC/Big 10 Challenge - Ohio St. @ Florida St. (7:30 ESPN)... UNC/Illinois (9:30 ESPN)... Georgia Tech/Northwestern (7:00 ESPN2)... Michigan/Clemson (9:00 ESPN2)... Iowa/Wake Forest (7:00 ESPNU).... Always a fun thing... Go Big 10 (who never, ever wins... but might be favored this year)...
  • Georgetown @ Missouri - 9:00 ESPNU - A secretly good game... 2 top-15 teams...

Enjoy!

Monday, November 29, 2010

The Atlanta Hawks - 1st Quarter

Just because I felt like breaking down the Atlanta Hawks through 1/4 the season... won't go crazy stat-heavy/in-depth because no one cares... but here we go...

POSITIVES
  • Al Horford - The team's best player (take note of that if you didn't know already) has a 6th overall in the league 25.1 PER (player efficiency rating), averaging 16 points and nearly 10 rebounds in just 31.8 minutes per game while shooting a league-leading 60% from the field... Horford is by far the most efficient offensive option on the team, the best 2-way player (above-average defender), and a likely all-star at the 5 in the East (to go along with Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah)... he's good... we know this... more on him later...

  • Josh Smith - I'm a noted Josh Smith "hater"... anyone who reads this blog regularly has noticed this... so when I praise him, he's gotta be playing well... Smith's 22.2 PER leads all Eastern Conference "power" forwards... he's shooting 50% from the field, and has a career high in rebounds per game (9.1) and rebound rate... all while averaging 1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks, and not sacrificing (as much) on on-ball defense to get blocks.... there are certainly negatives (i.e. every SINGLE long 2-point jump shot he takes) that continue to be glaring... but his jump shooting numbers are "better"... 39.1 percent from 3 is unsustainable, and he still shouldn't shoot them, but I'd RATHER have him take 3s that continue to take 18 footers that are a far worse shot (because it's a similar percentage to his 3s)... Overall? Pleased with his performance... somebody just make him stop shooting 18 footers...

  • Larry Drew's Offense - The offensive efficiency numbers are up... the "iso-Joe" offense, while still prevalent occasionally, is far less widespread... and they've made a slight effort (lately at least) to establish Smith and Horford as more primary offensive options... which makes a historic amount of sense since they are, by far, the 2 most productive/efficient offensive players... There's an argument to be made that Joe Johnson can't/won't flourish in this type of offense as he was in the previous regime, but that is more of a Joe Johnson problem than a team issue... I'm a believer that the uptick in ball movement shouldn't hurt Joe if he doesn't let it...

  • Mike Bibby - Hear me out... I've killed Bibby in this space alot... and his limitations are known... He's one of the worst defensive guards in the league (likely the worst on-the-ball), isn't a natural distributor, etc... but he's playing well in Bibby terms... his usage is down this year (a positive), his field goal percentage is up (49% this year, 42% last year), and his PER is a near-league average 14+... There... I didn't kill Mike Bibby...

NEGATIVES

  • Joe Johnson - Lowest scoring average as a Hawk... Lowest field goal percentage since his rookie year... and a general unimpressiveness that has caused several bloggers to openly call for him to lose his all-star status (admittedly QUITE early with this belief)... do I think the "first 20 games" Joe Johnson will represent his season-long output? I don't... but there is something to be said for already experiencing a decline of any sort... I think he'll get back to the 19-20 point per range... but from this point forward, his play can and will never represent "value" for what his cap number and salary indicate... I'm telling you this as much as telling myself to remind myself that there's no need to dwell on this... A positive? His usage rate is down fairly significantly (i.e. goodbye iso-Joe)... and the reports of his demise will likely be premature because of 1) sample size, 2) a potential hand injury holding him back slightly, and 3) a shooting slump that hasn't showed sustainability in his time with Phoenix or Atlanta...

  • Jamal Crawford - Let me say this... I'm not surprised at all... Jamal's 18 PER (highest of his career), 45% FG (highest career), 57% true shooting (highest career), and 23 points per 40 minutes (highest career) from 2009-10 were a highly unrealistic indication of what would happen in 2010-11... I preached this preseason and all throughout Crawford's pining for a new contract (thank God he didn't get one)... Crawford's acquisition from GSW was a fantastic value at the time simply because the Hawks traded absolutely nothing of value for him... he was very good in his "pure scorer" role last year... but nothing more than that, and a SIGNIFICANT population of "Hawks fans" called for letting Joe Johnson go on the basis of Jamal Crawford as an adequate solution... that logic is ludicrous... Jamal Crawford has one discernible NBA skill in that he's a scorer... not a shooter... a scorer... he's a very, very bad defender, he can't run an NBA offense as an on-ball guy, and he's a terrible passer (3 assists a game in 29 minutes).... I'm not going to kill Crawford's play any further simply because I expected it... but it's likely not going to get better as some have said...

  • The Bench composition- The Atlanta Spirit group from the Ownership to the GM to the Head coach combined to think it would be a quality idea to carry the following backup bigs.... Zaza Pachulia, Jason Collins, Etan Thomas, and Josh Powell... yes, that is 3 backup centers and a backup power forward with a career PER around 9 (league average is 15)... It's not the fault of these guys... Zaza is underused in favor of guys he is simply better than... Powell has proven to be below league-average in every single aspect other than he's a pretty good jump shooter for a power forward (i.e. he's abysmal at the rim, a bad rebounder, etc.)... Collins serves exactly one purpose (6 fouls on Dwight Howard, Shaq, etc.)... and Thomas is totally washed-up and likely not rosterable, especially on a team with 3 other centers.... All of this instead of signing an NBA small forward to back up Marvin Williams... Mo Evans is a shooting guard everyone... he's played shooting guard his entire career until Atlanta... he's listed at 6'5 (probably closer to 6'3), and simply can't guard SFs... basically coming together to give him a 5.3 PER which is hilariously bad, mostly because he's playing out of position (and hurt)... and finally, Jeff Teague and Jordan Crawford are both similarly buried... Teague hasn't been good at all, but would provide quickness on the ball defensively that Crawford and Bibby can't... Jordan Crawford has been okay in limited minutes, but can't seem to get on the floor either... I can't help but think out loud that selling a draft pick is STILL not a positive thing... alas...

REST OF THE YEAR

All of that to say... I think the Hawks... are who we thought they were? (Copyright Dennis Green)... 11-7 right now... projects to? 50-32! Pretty much exactly where I had them (49-33) and around where the rest of the league projected them... I'll place a caveat that any injury to Horford and/or Smith would be a death blow to a 50-win course, but this is the life we've chosen... One move I would absolutely make though? Jamal Crawford... Expiring deal... he's not coming back... he's not getting extended... they're not winning anything... if you can flip him for a young asset? I would do it in a heartbeat and give the majority of his minutes to said young asset and Jordan Crawford... Anyway... we're off the rails... Go Hawks...

11/29: Football Wrap!

Greetings... Briefly hitting the key football games from Saturday and Sunday... NFL First...

  • Falcons 20, Packers 17 - Huge win for the Birds... 17 points allowed is big (against a bad matchup for them), and Matt Ryan continues to make plays late in games, especially at home... and they did it all without a very good performance from their best player (Roddy White)... what does it mean? Not a whole lot other than confirming suspicions that this team can play with anyone, and that they aren't going away... had to match pace with New Orleans, and they've done that... 9-2...
  • Steelers 19, Bills 16 (OT) - Brutal for the Bills... Steve Johnson drops a TD pass that would've won it, and Pittsburgh finishes them off... that being said, Buffalo is clearly out of the running for the "worst team" montra (Carolina in a landslide) and they are playing well...
  • NY Giants 24, Jags 20 - Key game here (somehow) for playoff positioning... Giants get to 7-4 behind a late rally, and are now tied with Philly (we'll get there in a second)... I'm not scared of the Giants at all to begin with, and now without Nicks and Smith, I'm not sure how they are winning... For the Jags? Nobody thinks they are a playoff team... and this is a game they needed to win to be one...
  • Texans 20, Titans 0 - I recap this game for 2 reasons... 1) The Johnson/Finnegan fight was epic... best slapfight turned brawl since David Boston and Charles Woodson... even if Andre is getting suspended (he has to right?)... and 2) To put the Titans to bed... Rusty Smith... Rusty Smith... Rusty Smith....

  • Chiefs 42, Seahawks 24 - This one surprised me... Seattle is always good at home, but KC took it to them... Dwayne Bowe is a monster isn't he? 3 more TDs and 170 yards... the Chiefs did whatever they wanted offensively... and the NFC West is a jumbled mess (5-6 leads now)...

  • Bears 31, Eagles 26 - I give up... the Bears keep winning and I'll quit fighting it... in fairness, I was openly rooting for the Bears as a Falcons fan because well, I'm terrified of the Eagles in the playoffs, but Cutler was good (dare I say, efficient), and that defense is legit... Vick didn't play badly (333 and 2 tds) but that's also an indication of the game... no team with Vick wants him just bombing away...

  • Ravens 17, Bucs 10 - Ravens are 5-0... 8-3 overall... and this was a "ho-hum" Ravens game.... grind, grind, grind, and make enough plays late... a key to Baltimore for me? Todd Heap being alive and well this year... we forget how good he was early in his career, and he's healthy for the first time since then... for TB, they haven't beaten a team with a winning record this year... and it's tough to expect the youngest team in the league to go on the road and win here...

  • Chargers 36, Colts 14 - What a weird game... Manning throws 4 INTs (2 for TDs)... The Chargers score 36 points without Rivers (the leading QB in the league this year) throwing a single TD pass... the return of the Peyton Manning face... and the Chargers (again!) showing everyone how filthy they are in November and December... Does anyone think the Chargers (who don't lead the division right now) aren't winning the AFC West? Anyone?....

College...

  • Arkansas 31, LSU 23 - Les Miles alert! Arkansas hit a cross-field bomb TD at the end of the half (LSU somehow letting a guy get behind them, lol)... Les burned a timeout on defense when he was down late in the 4th (naaa we don't need that timeout), and was generally Les-like throughout... it's funny because of how much talent LSU has... but on the other hand, I genuinely dislike Bobby Petrino (and Ryan Mallett, too) so this was kinda tough to see...

  • Oklahoma 47, OK State 41 - The Cowboys just can't seem to win one of these... playing at home as the favorite doesn't work for them either, as Landry Jones (despite 3 INTs) leads OU to a 47 point explosion including scoring at will for the entire 4th quarter... OU/Nebraska in an old-school Big 12 title game matchup... that's nice...

  • The Big 10 title is decided... Wisconsin wins it on the BCS tiebreaker, but it finishes in a 3-way tie after the Badgers dominated (70-23) Northwestern, Mich. State hung on against Penn State, and Ohio State... yeah... Congrats to the Badgers, who I think are the best 1-loss team in the country....

THE PICKS WRAP! (35-30-2 entering)

  • Texas +3... Loss

  • Nevada +14.5... Win (Outright even!)

  • Michigan +17... sigh, loss

  • Northwestern +23... Whoops

  • Arizona +19.5... Win!

  • Pats -6.... Win!

  • Eagles -3... Loss!

  • Niners -1... Pending!
38-34-2 pending the Niners game...


And this gets its own section...

Ohio State 37, Michigan 7 - Well that was embarrassing... I could write 5,000 words on this (and I probably have in edits) but let's break it down simply...
  • 1) Ohio State is much, much more talented... the disparity in talent on the Ohio State defense vs. the Michigan defense is top-10 vs. MAC-level and I'm not exaggerating... Michigan has 1 all-Big 10 defender (DT Mike Martin), and 3 Michigan-level players (Van Bergen, Demens, and Mouton)... the other 7? True freshman or woefully under-talented upperclassmen who have no business...

  • 2) Ohio State is better coached... I'm on record that I think Jim Tressel is the best coach in America... done right?... Even if you ignore that, Greg Robinson is, at best, incompetent, and at worst, a grease fire...

  • 3) Terrelle Pryor is better than Denard Robinson.... that's not a shot at denard... a first-year starter who is still raw, but Pryor calmly dissected the Michigan defense, made every play (the 30-yard run-around scramble was back-breaking) and showed why everyone loves him... Denard? Made some plays... but was ultimately uninspiring...

And now a word on the future....

  • I would NOT fire Rich Rodriguez... hear me out... I would instantly fire Greg Robinson and rid themselves of that atrocious 3-3-5 stack look... but ultimately Rich Rodriguez has done similar work to what I thought he'd do... he's transformed the offense (Ohio State not withstanding) and made it into an elite-ish unit with a dynamic QB, functional and quick RBs, short receivers, and a solid O-line... also, the talent level was flat-out bad upon Lloyd's departure (check out the 2005-2007 recruiting classes, wow), and the biggest point of all?.... If you fire Rich Rodriguez, you're guaranteeing at least 2 more years of losing... even if Jim Harbaugh agreed to come, he'd need to overhaul the personnel completely (he wants a pro-style QB, big RB, etc.) and the majority of the offensive personnel on the roster can't run a conventional offense... so please Michigan fans... know what you're asking for if you want him gone...


::Takes a deep breath::



What to watch for....

  • 49ers/Cardinals - MNF - ESPN 8:30 - Such an ugly game... but anyone who plays fantasy probably has something on the line... so I'm in just for that...

  • Rockets/Mavs - NBA TV 8:30 - Houston beat OKC last night... Dallas beat Miami on Saturday... Texas wars are always entertaining...

  • Virginia @ Minnesota - Hoops - ESPN2 7:00 - If you're into this...


Enjoy it...

Saturday, November 27, 2010

11/27: Bye Bye Boise...

Greetings all... had to get something up about the 3 CFB games yesterday... here we go...
  • Auburn 28, Alabama 27 - Great, great game here... Alabama flat-out gave this one away with 1) The Ingram fumble, 2) The Richardson dropped TD pass, and 3) The sack/fumble where the entire Bama team fell asleep to let Auburn crawl and pick it up... I've never seen domination like the 1st quarter of that game... but give some credit to Cam Newton and Auburn who scored at will in the 2nd half, and I'm not sure how anyone can NOT give their Heisman vote to Cam Newton.... It's kind of funny to see everyone anointing Auburn as a BCS Title game team... umm.. South Carolina is very, very capable of beating them... just an FYI...
  • Nevada 34, Boise 31 (OT) - First of all, I feel absolutely terrible for Boise kicker Kyle Brotzman... he missed 2 relative gimmes (one in regulation, one in OT) and it was a sickening feeling... now that that is over... what a game... Big-time out of the gate for Boise... huge comeback by Nevada including 2 huge touchdowns to tie the game twice late... The craziest play? Kellen Moore somehow getting SINGLE COVERAGE on that final bomb in regulation (no idea what Nevada was doing) and delivering a perfect strike to set up the field goal... Real, real tough for Boise... but that's a legit team, and anyone piling on today is off-base...
  • And finally... Oregon rolls on... 48-29 over Arizona and the Ducks scored at will yet again... Darren Thomas, Lamichael James, and Kenjon Barner are beasts... and they continue to do whatever they want offensively... I was alarmed pre-game at the dismissal of Arizona (a legit top 20 opponent), but Oregon made them look ordinary...
That's it for today... Go Blue... Beat the Buckeyes

Friday, November 26, 2010

11/26: Wrapping up Thanksgiving...

Greetings all... short and sweet today...
  • Pats 45, Lions 24 - Tom Brady is better than everyone... 341 yards, 4 TDs and general precision (i.e. Brandon Tate dropped another TD in his hands)... The Lions showed up for 3 quarters, and they were in this game, but that pass D still isn't in a place where they can slow Brady... pretty ho-hum...
  • Saints 30, Cowboys 27 - Oh, Roy Williams... hold onto the ball and the Cowboys get that win... Drew Brees had a productive game, but Reggie Bush looked hideous and they really need a running game... Dallas is certainly showing up every week now under Garrett and Jerry Jones I'm sure is taking notice...
  • Jets 26, Bengals 10 - The Brad Smith show.... kickoff return and a 53 yard run... other than that? Such a brutal game to watch... Carson Palmer was abominable (2 INTs, more dropped, 41 QB rating), and threw one of the worst passes I've ever seen an "NFL" quarterback throw (the INT into triple coverage in the end zone)... both teams are who we thought they were....
  • Texas goes down... the Longhorns are not bowl eligible... What were the Vegas odds on that preseason? They were competitive at least here... but Garrett Gilbert has a long way to go, and they just couldn't make enough plays...
  • NBA Box Score Check - Josh Smith had 20 and 14 in a rout of Washington last night... the Hawks looked good, and Joe looked more comfortable (finishing with 21)... the perimeter (cough, point guard) defense isn't getting better though... The Clippers are looking better and better... Blake Griffin went off for 25 and 15 and Eric Gordon had an assassin-like 28/6/4... one guy I'm encouraged about though? Al-Farouq Aminu... I thought he had bust written all over him, but another efficient 12 points last night, and he doesn't kill you anywhere....
What to watch for...
  • Huge College Football Games - Auburn/Alabama (2:30 CBS), Oregon/Arizona (7:00 ESPN), and Boise/Nevada (10:15 ESPN) all have national title implications... big enough? lol... even West Virginia/Pittsburgh (Noon ABC) has "BCS" implications in the pathetic Big East...
  • Rockets/Bobcats - 7:00 ESPN2- I have no idea why this game is on TV... but if you aren't into college football...
  • Warriors/Grizzlies - 9:30 ESPN2 - The dubs are always entertaining....
Enjoy...

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Turkey Day Blog: Hoops Everywhere!

Greetings all... Lots of hoops and not much else from Wednesday... here we go
  • In the Association... Orlando takes out the Heat yet again... 8-7 for Miami?... Even if you weren't on board pre-season (and there weren't many), I don't think anyone saw 8-7 out of the gate coming... adding to that, I don't think I've ever seen Dwyane Wade play this badly for this long a stretch... San Antonio wins their 12th in a row... they really have it going and they won this one despite being down 15 in the first half... Minny is playing better and Kevin Love (32 and 22 last night) is a monster... Derrick Rose and the Bulls get a huge win in Phoenix... Double-OT after being down 26 in the first quarter, and Rose was insane with 35/12/7 to overcome Nash and company... Utah beats up on New Orleans... Al Jefferson did a number on Okafor and company (23 and 10 in 34 minutes) and Deron Williams played typically well (26 and 11)... Ariza's shooting continues to be an issue for NO (37% for the year) and they got killed with Jarrett Jack on the floor in his debut... and lastly, Dallas is playing very, very well... Dirk is putting up 30 a night for the last 2 weeks, and Tyson Chandler looks like he did in the 60-win New Orleans year... OKC is suddenly 5-4 at home on the year and that's a little worrisome, but it's tough to win when you get dominated on the glass...
  • Kemba Walker is putting up crazy numbers... 29 again last night in an upset over Kentucky and he had a "shoulder shrug" moment in the 2nd half when he hit a ridiculous 19 foot stepback to quell a UK run... he won't average 30 for the year, but he is certainly the Big East POY front-runner after what I've seen...
  • Michigan State looked like Michigan State in the 2nd half of their comeback win over Washington... 42-27 in the 2nd half, and Kalin Lucas took it over before finishing with 29 points on only 13 FGA's... a really tough 2-game stretch for the Huskies, but I still think they are the Pac 10 favorites...
  • The Boise State and TCU "bashing" comments by the Ohio State president are seriously overblown... this isn't exactly a nominal sentiment in the Nation (aka it's everywhere), and he actually said it... that's not really a story is it?
  • I stand by my anti-Vince Young stance even more today... oh... you apologized via text message? That should SURELY keep you in Tennessee... and btw, you throw like a girl... still...
  • I'm still confused by the age in which we live... LaMichael James is driving a car that was given to him by a family friend... and this led SportsCenter at one point yesterday... I distinctly remember watching an episode of "The Season" following several college basketball teams 5-6 years ago and pretty much every single guy had a car that made me think "huh...?" but this is what the internet age has brought us...
What to watch for...
  • Thanksgiving NFL Football - Check out the NFL Preview for the Breakdown but quickly, it's Pats/Lions at 12:30 (CBS); Saints/Cowboys at 4:00 (FOX); and Jets/Bengals at 8:00 (NFL Network)...
  • Texas
  • Wizards @ Hawks - 8:00 TNT - Gotta love a bad basketball game on Thanksgiving... John Wall is must-see TV though
  • Kings @ Clippers - 10:30 TNT - Oh look! A worse game! In fairness to TNT, they probably weren't going to get a prime matchup here and went after the Evans/Cousins/Griffin/Gordon quartet... at least you get the chance to possibly see Blake Griffin levitate...
Enjoy your turkey and your family...

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

NFL Preview Week 12

Aloha... when you think of Thanksgiving, you generally think of NFL football... but with the college football season coming to a climax this weekend... could the NFL be underrated somehow?... Anyway... let's get it... Winners in bold...
  • Patriots @ Lions - Thursday - 12:30 - The Lions are feisty at home... let's get that out of the way... but I'm as high as anyone can be on the Pats, and Detroit can't run the ball (at all) putting a ton of pressure on Shaun Hill, who definitely isn't Matthew Stafford... seems like a recipe for a comfortable Pats win...
  • Saints @ Cowboys - Thursday - 4:00 - The Cowboys resurgence has been a little overstated, but they are certainly playing better... on the other hand, I think NO is getting in gear, they could/should have at least one of Bush/Thomas back this week, and basically, there's no way I can pick Kitna and that running game against the Saints... done... and just a note... check out the love for the Salvation Army on the Cowboys thanksgiving halftime... do it for me...
  • Bengals @ Jets - Thursday - 8:15 - Cincy stinks... and now they have to go against a real, live defense? And TO is talking trash about Revis?... This could get ugly... Cincy's only hope is "bad" Sanchez appearing, and even then, I think the Jets will run the ball very effectively here...
  • Packers @ Falcons - Sunday - 1:00 - Game of the week... If this game was played anywhere but the Georgia Dome, I'd pick GB but I'll take the Falcons (with no conviction)... Matt Ryan is playing the best football of his career, but this is a major test against an elite defense.... The real x-factor in this game will be whether ATL can slow Rodgers down... the run defense has been very, very good (led by Babineaux who looks like a pro bowler), but the Falcons can be thrown on, and with Driver back and playing, Jennings getting right, and depth everywhere, GB can wing it...
  • Steelers @ Bills - Sunday - 1:00 - Tough spot for the Bills here... their offense is looking better every week and they may have found legit starters in Fred Jackson and Steve Johnson... that being said, Pittsburgh is a different animal than Detroit and Cincy... Mendenhall should go nuts against that putrid Buffalo run D, and Pittsburgh gets healthy here... but hey... The Bills won 2 in a row..
  • Vikings @ Redskins - Sunday - 1:00 - I can't think of a single reason why Leslie Frazier would start Brett Favre here... he's been an unmitigated disaster, and won't be back next year... to the point where it's pretty much accepted that Tarvaris would actually be BETTER right now... anyway... Washington looked good against the Titans last week, the defense especially, and I think they can score on Minny...
  • Jags @ Giants- Sunday - 1:00 - If the season ended today... Jacksonville would win the AFC South... read that sentence again... anyway, that ends here... The Giants should be able to stack the box on MJD, grind them down with Bradshaw (yes, I know Jacobs is starting... but unless Coughlin is nuts, he'll remember that Jacobs isn't any good), and win this one going away...
  • Chiefs @ Seahawks - Sunday - 4:00 - The Chiefs are a different (worse) team on the road... the Seahawks are a different (better) team at home... seems simple enough? Hasselbeck is playing quite well right now, and Cassel is due for a clunker as well... KC's only shot is getting Charles/Jones off against that banged up Seahawks front 7...
  • Eagles @ Bears - Sunday - 4:00 - I continue to be un-sold on the Bears... and I think the Eagles are very, very good... in an "off" game for Vick on Sunday night, he was still quite good and had a TD dropped by Avant (who doesn't drop passes)... and the Bears defense is legitimately good, but I still don't trust Cutler against a good defense...
  • Bucs @ Ravens - Sunday - 4:00 - I was wrong about Tampa... Josh Freeman is good... done and done... but Baltimore on the road isn't the place to plant that flag... I still don't think the Bucs are more than a 9 win team, and Baltimore is just better...
  • Rams @ Broncos - Sunday - 4:00 - Interesting game here... I think the Rams are feisty, but going on the road to Mile-high is never easy... This could be a bit of a shootout, and honestly, I'm flipping a coin and picking the home team... but man, there are some young QBs I like right now... Ryan, Bradford, Freeman, Flacco... even Colt McCoy showing some life... crazy
  • Chargers @ Colts - Sunday - 8:00 - Tough game to pick... Rivers continues to be fantastic and gets his #1 toy back in Vincent Jackson this year... but against Indy, you need to run the ball right at them, and I'm not sure they can... on the other side, Peyton Manning playing at home, at night... Watch out for Jacob Tamme... SD is always brutally bad against the tight end...
  • 49ers @ Cards - Monday - 8:20 - What an awful football game... anyway, I don't think I'd pick AZ over anyone in the league not named "Carolina", so there's that... and I do think Troy Smith is a reasonable QB... whoever sucks least wins...

THE PICKS! (35-30-2 pending CFB)

  • Niners -1 over Arizona - I think Arizona stinks... out loud... and Troy Smith is semi-competent...
  • Philly -3 over Chicago - I'll bet against Chicago until the cows come home... especially against that Eagles team...
  • Patriots -6 over Lions - It's an absolute myth that Detroit and Dallas "play better on Thanksgiving" (check out the numbers)... and without Stafford or a running game?...

Enjoy it...

11/24: Hoops, Hamilton, etc.

Aloha...
  • College Hoops! - #1 Duke beats up on #4 K-State 82-68 last night behind 5 guys in double figures... they managed to shut Jacob Pullen down (1-12 FG, 4 points) and KSU isn't beating anyone when he does that... Duke is crazy deep and talented, especially in the backcourt and congrats to Coach K on 800 wins... UConn upends Mich. State.... the upset of the day belongs to the Huskies who took down the #2 spartans thanks to another huge game from Kemba Walker (30 last night) who is averaging 30+ for the year... and all that with the least talented UConn team in probably 15 years... The Young Kentucky Wildcats win a close one with Pac-10 best Washington... Brandon Knight and Terrance Jones (both freshman) combine for 40 for UK, and Washington couldn't survive 7 of 23 shooting from Gaddy and Thomas....
  • Josh Hamilton is your AL MVP... I feel like this should be a bigger story than it is... guy comes into the MLB Draft as the wunderkind, flounders for years due to drug problems, and then re-emerges as the best player in the American League who is clean and sober?... That's a movie right?... Anyway, big-ups to him on his recovery... Miggy Cabrera and Robinson Cano came in 2nd and 3rd....
  • Victor Martinez to the Tigers.... 4 years, 50 million for the C/1B... Seems like a semi-reasonable price generally, but I have concerns about anyone signing Martinez to be a primary catcher (because he's a trainwreck back there), and they already have a franchie 1B in Miggy... so maybe Cabrera/Miggy split time at 1B and DH and they let Victor catch 50 games?... Anyway, the Tigers lineup could be very, very good...
  • 2 NFL "storylines" I thought were funny.... Jeff Fisher tells Vince Young to go away... VY is reportedly not welcome at Team meetings... and anyone is supposed to believe he'll return next year?... That'll be a stand-off between Fisher and Bud Adams... TO calls Darrelle Revis an "average corner"... Typical WR/CB trashtalk but it was funny to me... especially in a world where Revis is considered the default "best in the game"... I'm actually in the camp where he's not as exceptional as reported, but he's clearly a top 3-4 corner in the league and this is hilarious...
  • The Hawks are in shambles... losing 7 of 9, and doing it in ugly fashion... They laid ANOTHER 1st quarter egg last night (even more disconcerting after LD tore into them the night before), but managed to dig out and cause OT only to fall... Joe Johnson was below average (again) last night, and whispers are already circulating about a slight decline... only $100+ million left... Zaza had 4 points and 6 boards in 11 minutes... and yet Josh Powell's corpse played 19... I have no idea there... at any rate, I was discussing this briefly last night, and had the thought of "maybe they'll deal Jamal before the deadline if they stay this way", which I've been openly rooting for because 1) I think he's easily replaceable, and 2) The only way they will get anything in return for him (because they are over the cap for next year) is via trade... and you can't let big expirings go for nothing in this league without cap room... Sigh...
  • Box Score Check - Dirk Nowitzki put up a crazy 42 and 12 last night... typical Dirk, huh? well consider this... the Mavs only scored 88... wow... The Wizards filled the stat sheet... John Wall went off for 25 in the second half (fresh off injury) and Javale McGee put up a 24 and 18 that had everyone salivating (again) over his natural ability... and Brook Lopez beat up on Al Horford a bit last night with 32 and 9... worth noting that Horford usually contains him (15 and 8 career vs. ATL) but not last night...

What to watch for...

  • Heat/Magic - ESPN 7:30 - Well... The Heat are 8-6... so this is going to continue to be doomsday-ish coverage from the media... and Orlando isn't exactly the best matchup for them...
  • Michigan State/Washington - ESPN2 5:00 - A helluva consolation game... I think these 2 teams were/are the best 2 in Maui, so it's nice to see them play... tons of talent/experience on the court here...
  • UConn/Kentucky - ESPN 10:00 - The title game... can Kemba Walker keep this up?
  • UCLA/Villanova - ESPN2 9:00 - Really excited to see if the Bruins will bounceback this year... tough game here

Well there it is... College Football Preview below... and keep an eye out for the NFL posting today...

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

College Football Preview: Rivalry Week

Well... this is unequivocally the biggest week on the college football schedule that isn't "championship game" week... and the best part? It stretches over a 3-day period... Let's get to the games...

  • Auburn @ Alabama - Friday 2:30 CBS - Well... this is the main course... One of the top 2-3 rivalries in all the land... 2 top 10 teams... and oh yeah, Auburn is playing for a BCS Title game shot.... and there's that Cam Newton thing... Alot on the line here... on the field? I like Alabama... better defense, experienced offensive nucleus, great running game (to take Cam Newton off the field), and Julio Jones to gash them deep... that said, It's very, very difficult to bet against Cam Newton... he's one of the those guys you are flat-out terrified of, and for good reason... This is must-see TV... An interesting note here? Alabama is a 4.5 point favorite... 3 points are basically given for homefield, but this means Vegas thinks Bama (with 2 losses) is flat-out better...
  • Arizona @ Oregon - Friday 7:00 ESPN - This gets top billing as well simply because of what's on the line for Oregon... Arizona is a dangerous football team, and this game would be getting a ton more buzz if it wasn't at Autzen Stadium (aka the loudest place in the country)... I feel good about Oregon in the game, but anyone who sleeps on Arizona (probably because they missed them beating Iowa early in the year) has another thing coming potentially...
  • Boise State @ Nevada - Friday 10:15 ESPN - It's a one game season for Boise... their schedule for about 8 weeks straight was flat-out abysmal, but getting Nevada, on the road... on national TV... is a big boost... The Wolfpack are a legit ranked team and can score in bunches... this helps them in the computers with a win, and nationally in the polls if they look good... that being said... I'm taking Nevada... Getting Boise off the blue turf helps and Nevada will be playing fast and loose behind an experienced (and talented) QB in Kaepernick... Yeah, I'm on the limb...
  • LSU @ Arkansas - Saturday 3:30 CBS - Stay with me here... Auburn goes down to Alabama, Boise loses to Nevada... Oregon has to play Arizona and their rival in the next 2 weeks... LSU/TCU in the title game?... Okay, admittedly that's a stretch... and it would be a travesty for this LSU team to play for the championship, but it's in play... this is a big-time showcase (their last one) for Les Miles b/c they can't play in the SEC title game as well...
  • Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State - Saturday 8:00 ABC - For the Big 12 South title... and in a big-time rivalry game no less... I still can't trust OK State... but what happens if they beat Oklahoma and Nebraska in consecutive weeks and end 12-1...?...

And this gets its own category... Big 10 Madness! Ready? It goes without saying that if 1 team wins and 2 other lose, that team wins it... but Here are the scenarios...

  1. Wisconsin, OSU, and MSU all win - Wisconsin wins the Big 10 by virtue of being highest in the BCS
  2. Wisconsin wins, MSU wins, OSU loses - MSU wins Big 10 as result of head-to-head vs. Wisconsin
  3. Wisconsin wins, MSU loses, OSU wins - Wisc. wins Big 10 as result of head-to-head vs. OSU
  4. Wisconsin Loses, MSU Wins, OSU Wins - Ohio State (likely) wins as result of BCS rankings b/c OSU and MSU did not play

Okay... What do I think? I think Wisconsin and OSU win, and Mich State loses on the road in Happy Valley, which is scenario #3 crowning Wisconsin as the champs...

  • Michigan @ Ohio State - Saturday Noon ABC - Well... it comes down to this for the Big Game... There's little point in doing a full breakdown because no one cares nearly as much as I do... but here are a few points... 1) Ohio State's offense is not as prolific as it may seem... Pryor has been erratic at times, and the running backs, although good, are not electric... 2) Michigan can score points on anyone... 3) Mike Martin is healthy for Michigan (cannot be understated)... and 4) No, I don't actually believe Michigan can/will stop Ohio State's offense... It'll be exciting... it'll be a punch in the gut for me... seems like the usual... Ohio State 41, Michigan 35...

And for my local friends...

  • Georgia Tech @ Georgia - It's kind of sad how little pub this game is getting... but that's what happens when there is a combined 11 wins... anyway, I think Georgia is the far better football team, especially when GT is playing without Nesbitt, and playing on the road in Athens... mostly b/c the Yellow Jackets have a fairly abysmal defense, and Aaron Murray/AJ Green is a nice combo that should beat up on them a bit... that said, GT can run the ball (still) and if they can control the clock, it could be a game...

THE PICKS! 35-30-2 after a 4-3-1 week (2-2-1 college, 2-1 NFL)

  • Texas +3 over A&M... Classic hangover game... short week off a huge win for A&M and Texas has the better coach...
  • Nevada +14.5 over Boise... If I picked them to win straight up? I gotta take 14.5 points...
  • Michigan +17 over Ohio State... I know, I know... homer pick... but there's some reasoning too... Rivalry game, Tressel usually plays Tressel-ball vs. Michigan... Denard... 17 is alot...
  • Northwestern +23 over Wisconsin... I continually think NW is undervalued.. they won't win, but they'll hang
  • Arizona +19.5 over Oregon... Just to keep with the underdog theme... Arizona is undervalued... and backdoor covers still count...

Enjoy the crazy, holiday weekend... and please, please, please... Beat the Buckeyes!

11/23: Lockout Talk, Chilly, etc.

Greetings everyone... My apologies on falling off the map for the weekend, as travel does that to me... and now that I'm back, every football result (save MNF) has been beaten in the ground, so no football recap coming... I'll do better...
  • Chargers 35, Broncos 14 - Denver marched down the field on the first drive with precision... and then the wheels came off... 35 straight points for the Chargers including 4 Philip Rivers TD passes, and this one was an afterthought... it's kind of amazing to see what Rivers is doing without Vincent Jackson, Gates (who's missed 2 straight), and with a shell of a running game (cough, Ryan Mathews)... he's a player... Denver is frighteningly mediocre... I've never been impressed with Moreno, Orton is a stat guy who will never wow you, and the defense is pretty subpar when you realize Dumervil is gone, and Bailey/Dawkins are both elderly... SD is still the team to beat in that division...
  • Vikings fire Brad Childress, promote Leslie Frazier... This was 3 weeks too late... this season is over for Minny, and Frazier is in a bad spot here with an aging/unproductive QB and a lost season... Chilly is incompetent, but we all knew that... and all you needed to know was the reactions of the Minnesota media upon his firing... it was a mix of relief and fist pumping...
  • NBA Players Association head Billy Hunter dropped the "99% sure they'll be a lockout" last night... sigh... this thing is looming, and no one wants to accept it (me included) because I hate the idea of a basketball sabbatical and everything that comes with it, i.e. the draft occurring in a state of unknown, and a total overhaul of the contract system to which NBA fans are familiar... but this thing is going down...
  • Joey Votto wins the NL MVP... Man, I hate the way the MLB does awards... all talk about baseball is gone by now, so this gets buried, but Votto had an exceptional year and is a fantastic story... big ups to him... and I agree with the call...
  • Vince Young is out for the year... and probably is gone as a Titan... between the spat with Jeff Fisher, and the torn tendon... goodbye VY? I'm not sure, but I don't know how they bring him and Fisher both back now...
  • NBA Box Score Check - Your 8-6 Miami Heat... 70 wins huh?... a bad home loss to Indiana and the talk is at heights it hasn't reached yet... there's issues here and Wade was dreadful last night... on the bright side? They've smartly brought in Dampier (finally) who provides a legit center... The Celtics blow out Atlanta down at Philips even without Rondo... a complete clunker from ATL, signified by Mike Bibby (lol) leading all scorers with 11... abysmal... The Rockets are 3-10... I missed badly here, but the wheels are coming off...it's kind of shocking... the exact opposite? San Antonio who is clicking on all cylinders early in the year with 11 straight wins... pretty much the opposite of normal protocol for SA, and even with Duncan slowing down...
  • 2 impressive College hoops performances... K-State beat up on Gonzaga behind Jacob Pullen's 18 and another absolutely stunning clunker from Elias Harris of the Zags (I'll go ahead and mulligan my all-american love there)... and Washington throwing up 106 on Virginia... Washington's guards are crazy good, and Abdul Gaddy is living up to the hype all the sudden...

What to watch for tonight...

  • Duke/Kansas State - 10:00 ESPN2 - #1 vs. #4 is enough... but Jacob Pullen taking on that crazy good/deep Duke backcourt is must-see TV... I'm wondering aloud why this game is on ESPN... even if it's in favor of....
  • Kentucky/Washington - 9:30 ESPN - This is a nice, nice game... Kentucky brings young talent led by Terrence Jones, and the Huskies are clicking (see above) with Thomas and Gaddy...
  • UConn/Mich State - 7:00 ESPN - Kemba Walker beat a good Wichita State team by himself last night... but he won't beat Sparty alone... MSU is frighteningly deep/talented
  • Hawks/Nets - 7:00 SportSouth - I'm not sure the team I saw last night will appear here.. but if they do, they'll lose to NJ soundly... 5-1 on the road is deceiving too...
  • Bulls/Lakers - 10:30 NBATV - Interesting game... Rose should do whatever he wants here, but I'm not sure that's enough for them to run with LA at Staples..

Enjoy the slate... Working on Football previews for the gigantic holiday weekend...

Friday, November 19, 2010

11/19: Bad Football, King Felix, etc.

Hola...
  • Bears 16, Dolphins 0.... This was a dreadful, dreadful football game... I won't go as far as to say I was wrong about the Bears overall, but I definitely missed here... Chicago's defense was dominant (although Thigpen helped them), and Miami never really even threatened to score... The x-factor on offense was Matt Forte who was more effective than he's been in weeks, and helped them to overcome another relative stinkbomb from Cutler... 7-3 is nothing to sneeze at for Chicago... even if I think they finish 2-4 the rest of the way...
  • Felix Hernandez wins the AL Cy Young... A rare correct decision from the Baseball writers... Felix was by far the best pitcher in the AL this year, and they didn't punish him for their pathetic offense and his subsequent win total (13)... but when you lead the league in ERA, innings, K's, and have the best advanced numbers? You should win the Cy Young... and he did...
  • Brian St. Pierre is starting at QB for the Panthers.... huh?... Clausen is out, and apparently they felt they had a better chance to win with "journeyman" St. Pierre (who's awful btw) than rookie Tony Pike... needless to say I've gone and edited my picks from the NFL preview (read it if you haven't), and I expect them to get blown out even more now...
  • NBA Box Score Check - The Clippers are awful... 1-12 now after a loss to Indy... 1-12!... For all the talk about Minnesota or even Toronto, the Clips have been the league's worst team this year... I won't say they have a worse roster than either one of those other teams (they simply don't) but the pieces aren't getting it done... Orlando crushes Nash-less Phoenix... Dwight was the best player on the court (20 and 12) and Phoenix was never really in it... and Lamarcus Aldridge & Wesley Matthews carry Portland to an ugly win... 24 for Aldridge, 20 and 10 for Matthews... I think that's a playoff team even without Roy, but it's definitely a fringe one in that case...
  • College Hardwood - Pittsburgh is a team to be reckon with... legitimately 10 deep with mostly experienced guys, and they'll defend like they always do... Jamie Dixon is underrated... and Texas prevails in OT over Illinois... The Longhorns are young, but Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson are big-time players... I'd pick them to sneak up on more people if Rick Barnes wasn't a terrible game coach...

What to watch for...

  • Thunder/Celtics - 7:00 ESPN - The matchup speaks for itself really...
  • Bulls/Mavs - 9:30 ESPN
  • Fresno State @ Boise - 9:30 ESPN2 - Broke this down in the CFB Preview... but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Fresno hang around...
  • Pittsburgh/Texas - 7:00 ESPN2 - A nice college hoops matchup... better talent (Texas) vs. depth and better coaching (Pitt)...

Enjoy the weekend... if you've missed it, check out the NFL and CFB Previews for full breakdowns... oh, and Beat the Badgers...

Thursday, November 18, 2010

NFL Preview Week 11

To the games (no bye weeks!)... As always, Winners in bold....
  • Chicago @ Miami - 8:00 Thursday - I continue to believe that Chicago is doing this with smoke and mirrors... now they go on the road, and even with Tyler Thigpen at the helm, I like Miami... Make no mistake, Chicago's defense is legitimate... but their running game has been putrid (don't let Forte's fantasy numbers fool you, he's getting receptions, not rushing yards), and Cutler is a grease fire the majority of the time... For Miami? I actually think Thigpen is semi-decent.. and he doesn't need to be anything better than that... short passing game to Marshall and Bess, they'll control the tempo, and win this one close...
  • Buffalo @ Cincinnati - 1:00 - I almost picked Buffalo... on the road... that should tell you what I think of the Bengals these days... they refuse to establish the run, but if there was ever a game, this is it... Buffalo's run D is otherworldly bad, and Benson needs a big game.... so of course, I'm sure Palmer will wing it all over the yard... at any rate, Cincy is just better, and playing at home, I can't pick against them... but I certainly wouldn't wager on it...
  • Cleveland @ Jacksonville - I have no idea here... I feel like Hillis will run wild, but I hate rookie QBs on the road (I'm looking at you, Colt McCoy)... on the other hand, the Cleveland run D is capable of neutralizing MJD and making Garrard beat them (always an adventure)... flip a coin and take the home team... simple as that
  • Green Bay @ Minnesota - 1:00 - I think the Vikings have quit... couple that belief with the fact that I think GB is legitimately good, and that spells trouble... Favre will have a tough time here b/c Rice probably won't play still, leaving Harvin double-covered and the Greg Lewis/Greg Camarillo pu pu platter to try and beat the Packers... good luck... Minny's only hope is Peterson having a big-time day, and even then, I like Rodgers and company to get off here...
  • Oakland @ Pittsburgh - 1:00 - Angry Steeler team... Oakland (West coast team) traveling 3,000 miles east... Oakland getting overvalued because of their recent showings... All the makings of a blow-out
  • Baltimore @ Carolina - 1:00 - Jimmy Clausen! A banged-up Jonathan Stewart! Mike Goodson!.... Man, Carolina is bad... and with one of their elite guys gone for the season in Deangelo Williams, I can't believe it's going to get any better... You can never assume anything on the road, but I'd be alarmed if Baltimore didn't jump on them early and cruise... too much Rice, too much Flacco/Boldin/Mason... Edit: Clausen is out and Carolina is going with... Brian St. Pierre!... In case you wondering, that's not any better...
  • Detroit @ Dallas - 1:00 - Detroit hasn't won a road game in something like 3 years... you can't pick them on the road until they do... Dallas showed life under Jason Garrett last week, and I like Kitna to beat up on his old team a bit... if Stafford was healthy? I'd think about it... but I refuse to back Shaun Hill, and the suddenly inept Jahvid Best on the road....
  • Arizona @ KC - 1:00 - The Chiefs are a different team at home... and Arizona is really bad... a virtual must-win for KC with how they've looked the last couple of weeks, and Dwayne Bowe may go for 200 yards here against that Arizona pass D... Arrowhead!
  • Houston @ NY Jets - 1:00 - If the Jets blow out Houston... does Kubiak get fired on Monday? I think it's in the realm... Schaub had his best game of the year last week, but this is a much stiffer test, and on the road in potential weather, I don't like the average-armed Schaub... Hope for the Texans? Sanchez is due for a stinker here... Tomlinson is looking washed-up again, and Cotchery is out... if it's a shootout, Houston has a shot...
  • Washington @ Tennessee - 1:00 - I know Mike Vick was electric on Monday... but didn't the Skins defense just roll over and die? I say yes... it doesn't get much easier facing Chris Johnson, and now that teams have to roll 2 defenders to Randy Moss? Probably an extra guy out of the box for Johnson to go off... I do think McNabb has an "eff you" game or 2 coming here with all the bashing he's taken, but I'm not sure it's here against a quality defense...
  • Tampa Bay @ San Francisco - 4:00 - It was pointed out by my good friend, Josh, that, until last week, I hadn't picked Tampa to win all year... and he was right... wow... well, Tampa is better than San Fran... and yet? My first inclination was to take the Niners who are suddenly invigorated by average (that looks like great compared to A. Smith) QB play from Troy Smith, and it's a long trip for Tampa... but hey, Josh Freeman is pretty good (I'll admit I was wrong on him), and Troy Smith is due for an off-day himself.... No conviction at all, but give me Tampa...
  • Seattle @ New Orleans - 4:00 - I know Seattle is bad on the road, but can someone explain this game being a 13-point spread? Goodness... I'm higher on the Saints than most it seems like, but that's staggering... That said, Brees and company shouldn't have too much trouble here, and I can't pick Seattle on the road against a good team..
  • Atlanta @ St. Louis - 4:00 - Full disclosure... I had the Rams until I switched it last minute... that should tell you something... the overriding factor? 10 days off for Atlanta... tough to ignore that virtual bye week, and when you are well-coached (they are), that helps alot... The Rams are frisky... especially at home, and this will be a close game, I'm convinced of that... and this is a big-time test for Atlanta's status as making "the leap"....
  • Indy @ New England - 4:00 - Tough to call here always... but I like Peyton here... Just don't think the Pats have enough in the secondary, and Indy's defense lines up perfectly to stop the Pats... Short passing games are neutralized by Indy's speed, and without a legit deep threat, they'll be cheating all day... do the Pats have enough of a ground game to keep them honest? I say no... close game as always, but I like Indy matchup-wise... call it a feeling...
  • NY Giants @ Philly - 8:20 - The battle of the NFC East titans... NYG coming off an ugly loss... Philly coming off a dominant win... hm... Honestly, the deciding factor is my refusal to pick Eli Manning outdoors at night in any sort of weather, and I can't imagine it'll be warm in Philly... but this'll be a test for Vick and company, and the Eagles have to stop the run to win this game...
  • Denver @ San Diego - Monday 8:30 - It's about that time for the Chargers... Gates is back... November is on the calendar... they'll get hot, they'll beat up on a bad Denver team (especially in the secondary), and we'll be arguing about whether they are an AFC contender (again)...

THE PICKS! (YTD 31-27-1 pending CFB)

  • Green Bay -3
  • Miami -1.5
  • Carolina -11... Wow, I can't believe I'm doing this... but home teams getting 11 in the NFL are generally decent bets... Edit: No longer taking this with news of St. Pierre! (Thursday night, 7:48 pm)
  • New Orleans -11.5... Added after taking Carolina off

Enjoy the slate!

11/18: Oden, Parker, and more...

Aloha...
  • Greg Oden is out for the season after it was announced he needs microfracture surgery... just a brutal turn of events for a guy that I'm really rooting for... On the one hand, this is debilitating to a young player's prospects because it's now major surgery on both knees, but on the other hand, there are success stories out there such as Kenyon Martin who was a similarly elite prospect, had similar surgery on both knees, and has still shown himself to be capable of contributing in a big way post-surgery... At any rate, I feel for the guy...
  • I have no real thoughts on Tony Parker's impending divorce other than to say that it's got nothing to do with me... but he certainly played well last night... and the Spurs rolled to a 9-1 record behind his 21 and 7 last night... hard hitting analysis here lol...
  • The Yankees and Derek Jeter are at an impasse regarding his deal... not shocking simply because the Yanks are bidding against themselves and they know, and presumably Jeter does too... On the one hand, Jeter realizes it'll be a massive PR hit for the Yankees to let him walk, but on the Yankees side, they know Jeter can't command near the same price tag from any other organization....
  • Ron Gardenhire and Bud Black win manager of the year awards... I personally would've preferred Ron Washington in the AL, but Gardenhire gets the nod based on Morneau's injury (and the subsequent triumph over it), and as a lifetime achievement award which is more common than you think... Bud Black, I can't really argue with... he somehow guided that putrid offense to a respectable finish, and really they should've won the NL West... Dusty Baker would've been a fine choice as well, but there was a little more Reds hype preseason, and that's usually how these things work...
  • NBA Box Score Check - Chris Bosh explodes for Miami... easily his best game of the year (35 and 6) in a drubbing of Phoenix... we caught a glimpse of what Miami can be last night... Kobe Bean Bryant put up a 33 and 9 in a road dominance of the Pistons... is it possible he's underrated now?.... Break up the T-Wolves! Now 3-2 at home behind K-Love's 24 and 14, and another 33 point outing from Beasley (quietly eating people up)... they're at least decent at home... The Hornets return the favor to Dallas in a 99-97 win behind CP3's 20 and 11.. despite Dirk's best effort with a typical Dirk-like 29 and 9....

What to watch for...

  • Bears/Dolphins - NFL Network 8:00 - Thursday night football! This is pretty unwatchable though... certainly not the equal of the initial thursday game last week... Tyler Thigpen!
  • Suns/Magic - TNT 8:00 - Tough spot for Phoenix... road back-to-back against Miami and Orlando... they got the doors blown off last night and it may continue...
  • Nuggets/Blazers - TNT 10:30 - Roy being out levels the playing field a bit even with Denver being bad on the road... Wesley Matthews needs to earn his money...
  • College Football - Georgia State/Alabama on ESPNU, and UCLA/Washington on ESPN... if you're a diehard...

Until later... check out the NCAA preview from yesterday, and the NFL preview is on the way...

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

College Football Preview Volume 12

Aloha... Let's get to the games... even on a slow day in college football...
  • Ohio State @ Iowa - 3:30 ABC - This one lost alot of luster with Iowa going down in Evanston last week, but Ohio State needs the game badly, and this is probably the highest-level game of the weekend... I feel that Ohio State and Wisconsin are 2 of the best 3 1-loss teams in the country (with Nebraska), and that will bear out here.... the Buckeyes take care of business and set up the annual showdown next week in the 'Shoe...
  • Nebraska @ Texas A&M - 8:00 ABC - Speaking of Nebraska... this is huge for them... I feel as though if Nebraska runs the table, they'll be the highest ranked one-loss team having won this game on the road against a good opponent AND beaten either OU or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game, and subsequently, they'd play for the BCS title in a scenario where a 1-loss team would do so... so yeah... anyway, Taylor Martinez and company will score at will, and I still don't trust A&M, who's still capable of laying a stinkbomb like the 30-9 home loss to Missouri...
  • Boise State @ Fresno State - Friday 9:30 ESPN - One of the tougher tests all year for Boise... Pat Hill always has Fresno ready to play, and that giant killer label they've acquired over the years stands here... Boise is still a significant favorite in the game, but with this, and a looming game with Nevada, an undefeated season isn't the slamdunk that many seem to feel it is... Kellen Moore gets it done here though...
  • Virginia Tech @ Miami - 3:30 ESPN - I'm trying to figure out how Miami is ranked... anyway... the homefield advantage is pretty non-descript for Miami in that they can't seem to draw a crowd, and VT has it going right now, and appears to be head-and-shoulders above anyone else in the ACC... that continues here... Miami's offense is unstable, and VT has the better coach, the better QB, and that's generally a recipe for success, even on the road...
  • Wisconsin @ Michigan - 12:00 ESPN - This suddenly looks like a semi-competitive game... the Michigan offense has shown it can keep them in games, and playing at home, it's a different unit... Wisconsin will grind, grind, grind, but they are more of a big-play offense than in previous years (as evidenced by 83 points last week)... I don't think they'll blow the doors off here, but I'm convinced they'll run for 200+ yards, keep Denard Robinson off the field, and probably win a 7-13 point game... Not the automatic win it may seem to be though.. not with Shoelace on the field and Bret Bielema (the secret weapon for any Wisconsin opponent) at the helm...

THE PICKS! (31-27-1 YTD, 5-1 last week)... the kid is hot, son... lol....

  • Fresno State +30.5 over Boise State... This seems obscenely high to me... especially in a conference game... they'll still lose by 17-20... but that's a win
  • Wisconsin -4.5 over Michigan... They're just better, and this line is at least a field goal too low...
  • Virginia Tech -2.5 over Miami... same rationale as the game above...
  • Nebraska -3 over A&M.... and a 3rd straight game with similar rationale... road favorites! lol...
  • Ohio State -3 over Iowa... and a 4th for good measure...

Enjoy the slate everyone... next week is the big time showdown week, but these lay-in-the-weeds slates are usually entertaining...

11/17: Uggla!, Hoops, etc.

Big day for the Braves...
  • Dan Uggla is an Atlanta Brave... a huge acquisition for the power-stricken Braves in getting the right-handed bat they've coveted for a long time... Uggla (noted Braves-killer) has a career .837 OPS including last year's .877 OPS with 33 HR, and 105 RBIs, and is a middle-of-the-order type of bat... for the cost of? Omar Infante, a utility guy coming off a career season that apparently warped his perceived value to ridiculous proportions, and Mike Dunn, a lefty reliever who is wild, and is the 3rd best lefty in the Braves bullpen... Seems like a steal?... Yeah... The national/local/blog media have all passed favorable (hugely favorable) judgment on this deal for the Braves and I agree... It fills a huge need without parting with the "elite"pitching reserves, and while there's a soft spot for Infante in Braves country, this is definitely a deal you have to make... I'll save the projected lineup talk for a later (much later) date, but I'm very excited about the offense, and while the defense will take a slight dip with Uggla at 2nd, I'd imagine that Prado (who will move to LF in the projected scenario unless Chipper Jones can't return) would likely be better than the Melky/Diaz platoon was in left last season... Love this move...
  • Roy Halladay is your NL Cy Young award winner... Unanimously, no less... No debate here... he was my preseason pick, and he was the only guy that could've won this award, even in a remarkable year for NL pitching...
  • NCAA Basketball thoughts... Ohio State looked... fantastic... Sullinger is a legit beast, and they have so much veteran talent/experience around him (David Lighty is 30 years old I think) that it could be a scary team... Louisville blew the doors off Butler in a game that surprised me... It's nice to see Louisville being relevant, even if it's just to make Rick Pitino jokes (aha!), but they looked explosive... Kansas State may be the least talked about top-10 team, and they beat up on a good Va. Tech team... Jacob Pullen, Jacob Pullen, Jacob Pullen.... Gonzaga goes down... San Diego State (a trendy pick to win the MWC) beat the Zags, at the kennel no less, 79-76 despite Steven Gray's 35 points for the Zags... Elias Harris with 4 shot attempts!? huh?....
  • NBA Box Score Check - The Hawks get a 10-point road win... randomly 5-1 on the road (very good) after this one, and Josh Smith was fantastic... still too much jumpers for my taste (including a pathetic elbow jumper airball mid-game), but 25 points, 8 boards, 7 blocks speaks for itself... Derrick Rose beats up on the depleted Rockets... Ish Smith was no match here (lol) and Rose ends with 33 in a road win for the Bulls... Gotta give some love for Wesley Matthews... 30 points for Portland in their 100-99 win, and he's making them look smart for that questionable-looking contract they gave him... this type of spot (Roy's injury) that exposes his versatility is the reason why... Landry Fields! Who is that you ask?... the Knicks rookie swingman who went undrafted (and disrespected) put up a career night with 21 and 17 in a seeming battle of the unknown with Gary Forbes (still plugging along) dropping 19 and 9 for Denver...
  • Gotta mention Maya Moore... the UConn women's star put up a 30/7/6 in their win over #2 Baylor... they simply don't lose (80 straight wins), and she's one of the best women's basketball players I've ever seen (like, on the short list with Taurasi)... But here's the takeaway... #1 vs. #2 played basically to open the season... that's fantastic PR for the women's game... why not do this? It's a great, great thing...
  • Donovan McNabb is only guaranteed $3.75 million dollars... yes, 3.75 million of a total of 78 million... I'm not sure how that math adds up... but it's all making sense now...
  • The Steelers cut Jeff Reed on Tuesday... their long-time kicker had missed 7 of 22 on the year, and missed another on Monday night, but it just goes to show the fickleness of the position in the NFL... going into the year, you'd have wagered significantly on him being safe regardless of performance....
What to watch for...
  • Suns/Heat - 7:00 ESPN - Not impressed with Phoenix so far, and I don't think this is a particularly good matchup for them... but the Heat continue to be pretty much must-see just to try and digest what's going on there...
  • Bulls/Spurs - 9:30 ESPN - Really nice matchup... Bulls on the 2nd night of a road back-to-back, but this will be competitive... San Antonio is firing right now...

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

2010-11 College Basketball Preview

Here we are again... There's nothing wrong with more hoops!... I apologize for the delay on getting this up, but with the NBA and NFL in full effect, it snuck up on me... alas, I'll spare you the 300+ team breakdown, but here are a few thoughts/predictions on the season... enjoy!


CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS


ACC
Champ - Duke (not close)... Singler, Smith, Seth Curry, the Plumlees and Kyrie Irving.. wow...
Sleeper - North Carolina (duh)... Harrison Barnes looks like a stud and they have a ton of talent
POY - Kyle Singler, Duke

Atlantic 10
Champ - Temple... Lavoy Allen leads the most talented team... Xavier takes a step back
Sleeper - Richmond, Dayton
POY - Chris Wright, Dayton

Big East
Champ - Pittsburgh... Almost by default... 16-team conference and everyone has holes
Sleeper - Seton Hall... Better coach this year, and returning their top 4 players
POY - Corey Fisher, Villanova

Big 10
Champ - Michigan State... Best coach, elite player (Lucas), and crazy depth
Sleeper - Purdue... Even with the Hummel injury (again), they have Johnson and Etuan Moore...
POY - Demetri McCarney, Illinois

Big 12
Champ - Kansas... I'll take Bill Self over crazy Frank Martin (KSU)... that's what it comes down t
Sleeper - Colorado... Not sold on them, but they have great guard play, and that wins in college
POY - Jacob Pullen, Kansas State

Conference USA
Champ - Memphis... can't go against by far the most talented team...
Sleeper - UTEP... Almost pulled the trigger... Culpepper can really play
POY - Randy Culpepper, UTEP

Horizon
Champ - Butler... Lose Gordon Hayward, but this is still a top 10-12 team... loaded
Sleeper - Cleveland State
POY - Shelvin Mack, Butler

Missouri Valley
Champ - Wichita State.. 4 starters back from a legit team last year.. conference is loaded though
Sleeper - Northern Iowa, Creighton
POY - Toure Murry, Wichita State

Mountain West
Champ - BYU... Jimmer! That's all they need...
Sleeper - San Diego State (not really a sleeper) or UNLV
POY - Jimmer Fredette, BYU... Best non-major player in the country

Pac-10
Champ - Washington... Isaiah Thomas leads the best team in a "rebounding" league...
Sleeper - UCLA... don't sleep on Ben Howland... lots of talent coming back...
POY - Isaiah Thomas, Washington

SEC
East Champ - Florida.... Returns everyone, and I had Kentucky here, but Kanter's injury hurts
West Champ - Miss. State... Best of the worst in the West... the East is deep and good though
Sleeper - Georgia... Quietly very talented with Thompkins and Leslie...
POY - Scotty Hopson, Tennessee

WAC
Champ - Utah State... Always one of the most well-coached teams in the country...
Sleeper - Nevada... Usually more talented and that continues here...
POY - Tai Wesley, Utah State

WCC
Champ - Gonzaga... By far the most talented team, and have to pick them until proven otherwise
Sleeper - Portland, Loyola Marymount... Sneaky depth in the WCC this year...
POY - Elias Harris, Gonzaga

ALL-AMERICAN TEAMS

1st Team
G - Jacob Pullen, Kansas State
G - Jimmer Fredette, BYU
F - Kyle Singler, Duke
F - Elias Harris, Gonzaga
C - Jajuan Johnson, Purdue

2nd Team
G - Nolan Smith, Duke
G - Demetri McCarney, Illinois
F - Trey Thompkins, Georgia
F - Harrison Barnes, UNC
C - Marcus Morris, Kansas

3rd Team
G - Shelvin Mack, Butler
G - Kalin Lucas, Michigan State
F - E'twuan Moore, Purdue
F - Austin Freeman, Georgetown
C - Jon Leuer, Wisconsin

All-Freshman
G - Kyrie Irving, Duke
G - Brandon Knight, Kentucky
F - Harrison Barnes, UNC
F - Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
C - Perry Jones, Baylor

PREDICTIONS WITH NO CHANCE OF COMING TRUE...

Sweet 16 - Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Pitt, Villanova, Kansas State, Kansas, Florida, BYU, Gonzaga, Temple, Butler, Washington

Elite 8 - Duke, Michigan State, Pitt, Kansas, Gonzaga, Purdue, Florida, Butler

Final 4 - Duke, Michigan State, Pitt, Purdue

Champs - Duke over Michigan State... Duke is just scarily loaded... people keep forgetting about this, but they now have Seth Curry eligible (killer as a freshman averaging 20 a game at Liberty) to go along with top-5 recruit Kyrie Irving... and oh, they return National POY favorite Kyle Singler, all-american guard Nolan Smith and both Plumlee brothers... it's not even fair... so of course, they won't win it...

Anyway... Enjoy college basketball... I always do..

11/16: The Vick Show....

Greetings all...
  • Eagles 59, Skins 28... and it wasn't that close... Mike Vick was as electric as anyone I've ever seen on a football field for one night last night... and that's not hyperbole (even from me)... 20/28, 333 passing yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT... 8 carries for 80 yards, 2 TDs.... are you kidding me?... On the Skins side.... a frankly embarrassing performance... 35 unanswered Eagles points to open the game, Donovan threw 3 picks (we'll get to him shortly), and they just had no answers.... Anyway, It's always been a struggle for me in wanting to root for Mike despite his franchise-altering mistakes in Atlanta, but deep down, this is a guy I've always had affinity for, and a guy who I'm convinced has turned his life around... so yes, I'm rooting for him (not the Eagles, though... that's blasphemy)... he was everything we ever wanted him to be last night, and good for him...
  • Speaking of Donovan McNabb... he inks an "'$78 million" extension... yes, that number sounds absurd, because it is... he'll never see even half of that money (I believe), and the timing was wild... fresh off the battle with Shanahan all through the bye week, he signs an extension?... Especially at a time where he looks old and slow to me... Washington being Washington I suppose...
  • Baseball announced their Rookie of the Year picks... Buster Posey wins for the NL, and Neftali Feliz for the AL... First on Posey, he was utterly fantastic after coming mid-season, and had the best hitting stats by a significant margin... that part is undeniable, but I think it's an oversight to give him the award over Heyward or Garcia who were there from Day 1 and contributing... that's a personal preference thing, but IMO you can't ignore full-season contribution... and for Heyward, his defensive contribution (just check out the advanced stats) dwarfed Posey's as well... anyway... Feliz wins the AL... he was my pick as well... 40 saves in a year where there wasn't a significant challenger (Austin Jackson had a good 1st-half and tailed)... made it pretty obvious...
  • OKC halts the Utah streak... Durant's 30 points (16-16 FT) and Serge Ibaka's 22 and 11 gave the Thunder enough to beat Utah (somebody had to)... Utah got 31 and 11 from Deron Williams, doubly impressive against Russell Westbrook, but it wasn't enough... a nice win for OKC who's been underwhelming early...
  • Box Score check - Carmelo Anthony went for 20 points and 22 boards... 22 rebounds? for Melo?... He didn't play well otherwise (7 of 19 shooting), but that's noteworthy... Darko Milicic (!) puts up a 13 point, 12 board, 5 assist, 4 block game... gotta recognize when he actually contributes if we systematically murder him when he doesn't... and the Hornets go down... Dallas, behind Dirk's 25 and 10, finally knock off NO, it was bound to happen....
  • Kennesaw State blows out Georgia Tech... 80-63?... Pretty embarrassing here for a Tech fan... there are legit talent/size concerns there, and they definitely aren't winning with Shumpert and Oliver combining for 8 for 24 shooting, but to lose by 17 to Kennesaw is unacceptable... the Hewitt bashing will reach an all-time high soon if that continues...
What to watch for...
  • NCAA Basketball Tip-Off Marathon! - ESPN All Day - It's that time of the year... I am working on a quickie NCAA Basketball preview that will be up semi-soon I hope... but until then, feast on some games... Va Tech/K-State at 4:00 (two talented teams, KSU has a big-time freshman class and all-american candidate Jacob Pullen).... Ohio State/Florida at 6:00 (Jared Sullinger is worth seeing at OSU, and Florida returns darn-near everyone)... Butler/Louisville at 8:00 (Can Butler make another run?)... South Carolina/Mich. St. at 10:00 (Mich. State is getting national title buzz) and even an 11:00 Gonzaga game for crazy people... cough, me....
  • Hawks/Pacers - 7:00 - SportSouth - A decent road test here... Collison could go wild against the pu pu platter of the hawks point guards... keep an eye on the Horford/Hibbert matchup to see who wins this game...
  • Blazers/Grizzlies - 8:00 - NBA-TV - Portland is suddenly 6-5... and this isn't a gimme either...
Enjoy the day...