Greetings! We can build on this...
LINEUP
Projected Starters - Russell Martin (C), Garrett Jones/Gaby Sanchez (1B), Neil Walker (2B), Clint Barmes (SS), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Starling Marte (LF), Andrew McCutchen (CF), Travis Snider (RF)
Andrew McCutchen is, simply, one of the best players in baseball right now. In 2012, McCutchen went for a .327/.400/.553 slash line with 31 homers, 107 runs scored, and 20 steals. That's pretty incredible, and while the batting average will probably regress a bit (.375 BABIP last year), he's an elite player to anchor this team's future around. After that, Neil Walker put up another solid year in 2012 (.342 OBP, 14 homers from 2nd base) and while he's not a star (and won't be), that's above-average production from that ghastly position. Pedro Alvarez is certainly the key here, as their former #1 prospect who hit 30 homers last season. The issue with Alvarez is contact, as he struck out 180 times in 586 PA's (yikes) and it murders his on-base percentage in the process. They need a 30-35 homer season from Alvarez to provide pop in an otherwise pop-less lineup. Travis Snider, Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez all have severe platoon split issues, but if they are managed well, it could be a net-positive lineup. Be on the look-out for the always-entertaining Clint Barmes, who can really field, but is a complete mess at the plate. Don't believe me? His career OBP is .298 and in 2012, his OBP was .272. That's borderline incredible for a full-time player.
ROTATION
Projected - James McDonald, Wandy Rodriguez, AJ Burnett, Jeff Karstens, Francisco Liriano/Jeff Locke
When the Pirates got off to a blazing-hot start in 2012, it was because of their pitching, and they'll be the key once again. AJ Burnett submitted the best overall season last year, with 202 innings of a 3.51 ERA that was good for a 3.4 WAR. I'm skeptical that he can keep his walk-rate down (2.76 per 9 last year, 3.70 career), but he'll be solid at worst. McDonald has the highest upside of anyone in the rotation, and he was absolutely tremendous in the first half last year before falling off. Through 110 innings last year, his ERA was 2.37, but in the final 61 innings, his ERA was over 7.00. The biggest key to this rotation is which McDonald will be on the mound, and it's that simple. Wandy Rodriguez is ultra-solid, and while he isn't the same "upside" guy that he used to be in Houston, it's reasonable to expect solid #3 starter production (I'm thinking 200 innings with an ERA in the mid-to-high 3's). Karstens doesn't strike anyone out, but you could do worse in the 4-spot. The X-factor (besides McDonald)? Francisco Liriano was inked in the off-season and no one has any idea how he'll pitch. The former Twins ace has been either wildly effective (6.0 WAR in 2010) or awful (2.9 WAR combined in 2011 and 2012) and there's injury concern. Honestly, I have no idea what to expect, but I'd lean toward the negative.
BULLPEN
Projected - Jason Grilli (closer), Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, Jarod Hughes, Justin Wilson, Bryan Morris
The Pirates jettisoned former closer Joel Hanrahan to Boston (which I liked, because they aren't contending anyway) and that left the reins to Jason Grilli. He struck out a ridiculous 13.8 batters per nine last year while putting up a 2.91 ERA over 58 innings. It's a really small sample, but if he produces like that, he's a top-end closer candidate. After that, it's a bit of a challenge. Melancon, the former Houston closer, has been a mess since leaving there, and there aren't a lot of proven options elsewhere.
OVERVIEW
It seems that we always say that Pittsburgh is a year or two away... but they are a year or two away. They have some prize pitching prospects on the way (Cole and Taillon), but this year's staff isn't scaring anyone. If McDonald puts a full year together and Liriano hits, they could semi-contend for a wild card spot, but it's pretty aggressive to predict that, so they land here.
PREDICTION
74-88, 4th in NL Central
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
3/6: (Very) Quick Hits
Greetings! Short on time this morning...
- Oklahoma City blitzed the Lakers last night by a 122-105 final. The Thunder scored 71 (!) points in the 1st half, and committed a ridiculous two turnovers for the entire game. That ties the full-game NBA record by a team, and is utterly ludicrous over 48 minutes. Another dominant, offensive performance from OKC.
- #14 Ohio State went on the road and upset #2 Indiana in Bloomington, 67-58. Deshaun Thomas (18 points, 8 rebounds) and Aaron Craft (15 points, 4 boards, 4 assists, 4 steals) led the way for the Buckeyes, and they held IU to under 40% shooting. Is anyone else starting to doubt the Hoosiers?
- Michigan QB Devin Gardner has been granted a redshirt, and will have 5 years of eligibility. This is beautiful (for me) because it will give him two full years as the starter. That is all.
What to watch for on Wednesday...
- 7:00 - NCAAB - #5 Georgetown @ Villanova (ESPN2) - This is a must-win for Villanova's tourney chances, which should make this game ultra-competitive.
- 7:00 - NCAAB - North Carolina @ Maryland (ESPN) - Speaking of must-win games...
- 7:30 - NBA - Sixers @ Hawks (SportSouth) - Philly is wretched, especially on the road, so this is a winning spot for Atlanta.
- 9:00 - NBA - Bulls @ Spurs (ESPN) - A battle of PG-less teams, but San Antonio is still better than Chicago without Parker, especially at home.
Enjoy!
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
2013 MLB Preview #25: Chicago Cubs
Greetings! Things are looking up for Chicago... just not for 2013.
LINEUP
Projected Starters - Wellington Castillo (C), Anthony Rizzo (1B), Darwin Barney (2B), Starlin Castro (SS), Ian Stewart (3B), Alfonso Soriano (LF), David DeJesus/Brett Jackson (CF), Nate Schierholtz (RF)
There is a "plan" in place in Chicago for the first time in forever, so that's a positive start. The "star" of the club is Starlin Castro. He doesn't walk (at all), but he is one of the best offensive shortstops in the league, having hit 14 homers (.430 slugging) and stole 25 bases last season. Castro hasn't had a huge "breakout" campaign just yet, but at 22 years old (23 when the season begins), he's entering the time where that should take place. Remember Alfonso Soriano? Well, he's back, and he actually put up a 4 WAR season last year, when he hit 32 homers and slugged .499 for that wretched Cubs team. He's a virtual lock for 25 homers, and while the OBP could be better (.322 last year), you at least know what you're getting. Anthony Rizzo is the prize young player on this team, and he arrived in a big way during the second-half of last season. Rizzo hit the ball extremely well in his 368 major league PA's (.805 OPS, 15 homers), and is a solid fielder at first base. He's a former highly-rated prospect, and there's reason to expect a 30-homer type season from Rizzo in his first full year. After the top three guys in the lineup, the drop-off is severe. Barney and Schierholtz have "done it" as this level, but neither guy can be expected to much more than average production (if that). The DeJesus/Jackson combination is about as hit/miss as possible, as DeJesus is a sure bet to get on-base (career OBP of .355) while doing nothing else, and Jackson is the complete opposite as a power/speed guy that strikes out a ton. Ian Stewart is a career .232 hitter who hasn't even cracked .201 (!!!!) in the past two seasons. Yikes. The future is the focus.
ROTATION
Projected - Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Feldman, Scott Baker/Travis Wood
I've always been a Matt Garza fan. He has the stuff to get strikeouts (8+ Ks per 9 for the last two seasons), has a sub-3.00 walk rate, and if he can keep the ball in the ballpark, he's a real asset. The concern with him is injury, as he threw just 103 innings last year and he's battling a lat injury early in Spring. Edwin Jackson is tantalizing because he has great stuff, but he also has a career ERA of 4.40. He'll eat semi-quality innings, and that's all you can really ask for. Samardzija is probably the key to the staff's success, as a high-upside strikeout pitcher with some risk. He's only done it for one year (and a 174-inning year), but he struck out 9.2 guys per 9 while posting a respectable 3.81 ERA (3.55 FIP) last year. You may remember him for playing wide receiver at Notre Dame, but he's a real thing. The back-end gets ugly in a hurry with the never-exciting Scott Feldman, but the 5th spot could be really, really good if Scott Baker gets healthy. Stay tuned for that.
BULLPEN
Projected - Carlos Marmol (closer), Kyuji Fujikawa, James Russell, Carlos Villanueva, Shawn Camp, Hector Rondon
Carlos Marmol walked 7.32 batters per 9 innings last year. That is impossibly bad. The only reason that he's even a major-league pitcher is that he can strike out 11.71 batters in that same frame (which he did last year), but having him as the default closer is wildly risky. He could save 35 games or he could be out of the role by May. Fujikawa is a recent import from Japan, and while he's 32 years old, he profiles as a high-end reliever who could take over for Marmol if needed. Russell and Camp both posted ERA's under 3.50 last year and could be assets in late-inning situations. The X-factor? Former starter Carlos Villanueva who was fantastic as a reliever in 2010 when he struck out over 10 per 9.
OVERVIEW
On the bright side for Chicago, they've shed their massive payroll (except Soriano) and they are building for the future around Theo Epstein and company. The bad thing? Houston has moved on, and Chicago is firmly planted in the NL Central cellar this year because the MLB team isn't quite ready. There is real talent (Castro, Rizzo, Garza) and some solid vets (Soriano, Jackson) but the depth isn't quite there yet, and they are a year or two away.
PREDICTION
71-91, 5th in NL Central
LINEUP
Projected Starters - Wellington Castillo (C), Anthony Rizzo (1B), Darwin Barney (2B), Starlin Castro (SS), Ian Stewart (3B), Alfonso Soriano (LF), David DeJesus/Brett Jackson (CF), Nate Schierholtz (RF)
There is a "plan" in place in Chicago for the first time in forever, so that's a positive start. The "star" of the club is Starlin Castro. He doesn't walk (at all), but he is one of the best offensive shortstops in the league, having hit 14 homers (.430 slugging) and stole 25 bases last season. Castro hasn't had a huge "breakout" campaign just yet, but at 22 years old (23 when the season begins), he's entering the time where that should take place. Remember Alfonso Soriano? Well, he's back, and he actually put up a 4 WAR season last year, when he hit 32 homers and slugged .499 for that wretched Cubs team. He's a virtual lock for 25 homers, and while the OBP could be better (.322 last year), you at least know what you're getting. Anthony Rizzo is the prize young player on this team, and he arrived in a big way during the second-half of last season. Rizzo hit the ball extremely well in his 368 major league PA's (.805 OPS, 15 homers), and is a solid fielder at first base. He's a former highly-rated prospect, and there's reason to expect a 30-homer type season from Rizzo in his first full year. After the top three guys in the lineup, the drop-off is severe. Barney and Schierholtz have "done it" as this level, but neither guy can be expected to much more than average production (if that). The DeJesus/Jackson combination is about as hit/miss as possible, as DeJesus is a sure bet to get on-base (career OBP of .355) while doing nothing else, and Jackson is the complete opposite as a power/speed guy that strikes out a ton. Ian Stewart is a career .232 hitter who hasn't even cracked .201 (!!!!) in the past two seasons. Yikes. The future is the focus.
ROTATION
Projected - Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Samardzija, Scott Feldman, Scott Baker/Travis Wood
I've always been a Matt Garza fan. He has the stuff to get strikeouts (8+ Ks per 9 for the last two seasons), has a sub-3.00 walk rate, and if he can keep the ball in the ballpark, he's a real asset. The concern with him is injury, as he threw just 103 innings last year and he's battling a lat injury early in Spring. Edwin Jackson is tantalizing because he has great stuff, but he also has a career ERA of 4.40. He'll eat semi-quality innings, and that's all you can really ask for. Samardzija is probably the key to the staff's success, as a high-upside strikeout pitcher with some risk. He's only done it for one year (and a 174-inning year), but he struck out 9.2 guys per 9 while posting a respectable 3.81 ERA (3.55 FIP) last year. You may remember him for playing wide receiver at Notre Dame, but he's a real thing. The back-end gets ugly in a hurry with the never-exciting Scott Feldman, but the 5th spot could be really, really good if Scott Baker gets healthy. Stay tuned for that.
BULLPEN
Projected - Carlos Marmol (closer), Kyuji Fujikawa, James Russell, Carlos Villanueva, Shawn Camp, Hector Rondon
Carlos Marmol walked 7.32 batters per 9 innings last year. That is impossibly bad. The only reason that he's even a major-league pitcher is that he can strike out 11.71 batters in that same frame (which he did last year), but having him as the default closer is wildly risky. He could save 35 games or he could be out of the role by May. Fujikawa is a recent import from Japan, and while he's 32 years old, he profiles as a high-end reliever who could take over for Marmol if needed. Russell and Camp both posted ERA's under 3.50 last year and could be assets in late-inning situations. The X-factor? Former starter Carlos Villanueva who was fantastic as a reliever in 2010 when he struck out over 10 per 9.
OVERVIEW
On the bright side for Chicago, they've shed their massive payroll (except Soriano) and they are building for the future around Theo Epstein and company. The bad thing? Houston has moved on, and Chicago is firmly planted in the NL Central cellar this year because the MLB team isn't quite ready. There is real talent (Castro, Rizzo, Garza) and some solid vets (Soriano, Jackson) but the depth isn't quite there yet, and they are a year or two away.
PREDICTION
71-91, 5th in NL Central
Monday, March 4, 2013
2013 MLB Preview #26: San Diego Padres
Greetings! The first time we've visited the same division for a second time!
LINEUP
Projected Starters - Nick Hundley/Yasmani Grandal (suspended) (C), Yonder Alonso (1B), Logan Forsythe (2B), Everth Cabrera (SS), Chase Headley (3B), Carlos Quentin (LF), Cameron Maybin (CF), Will Venable (RF)
Chase Headley had a monster break-out campaign in 2012. He was worth 7.5 WAR (on Fangraphs), which was good for 6th in all of baseball, and he hit 31 homers, stole 17 bases, and ended with an .874 OPS while playing half his games in Petco. That's a big-time year. It's a shame that the rest of the lineup doesn't match that pace. Cameron Maybin's value comes from defense, and he lost his power (8 homers in 561 PA's) last season, while Yander Alonso (their prize acquisition in the Mat Latos deal) managed to hit for average and get on-base, but with surprisingly little pop (.393 slugging). They are in desperate need of a power surge from Quentin and/or Venable in the corners, and some on-base magic from Forsythe or Cabrera (who stole 44 bases in 449 PAs). It's not a disaster, but it isn't good, and Headley probably can't be counted on for another top-10 season.
ROTATION
Projected - Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Jason Marquis, Eric Stults, Tyson Ross/Casey Kelly
The #1 pitcher (by Fangraphs WAR) for the 2012 San Diego Padres was worth 1.3 WAR. His name is Edinson Volquez, and while he's a talented pitcher, 1.3 WAR is 4th/5th starter material. Yikes. Since we're talking about Volquez, he's a guy with big-time strikeout stuff who just can't seem to get the walk-rate (over 5 per 9 last year) under control enough to be a high-end pitcher. Richard is a control-only, "Petco" guy who never strikes anyone out (4.4 per 9!), but threw 218 innings of 3.99 ERA ball last year and returns as their "consistent" guy. After that, it's a mess. Marquis started 15 games in San Diego, and while I'm actually bullish on him in that ballpark, he wasn't spectacular (4.04 ERA, 4.28 FIP) in the second half. Stults had a tremendous 2.92 ERA between the bullpen and rotation last year, but his peripherals scream "fluke" as his xFIP climbs to 4.44 and he strikes out a Richard-like 4.97 batters per nine. Casey Kelly is the prize prospect that they got in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, but he's struggled mightily with the big club, and he'll battle the former Oakland A's prospect Tyson Ross for the final spot. Because of the ballpark, they could post deceivingly low ERA's, but this isn't a good group.
BULLPEN
Projected - Huston Street (closer), Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, Brad Brach, Nick Vincent, Joe Thatcher
This is historically a strength for San Diego. Huston Street is always good when he pitches, but he's also always hurt and threw just 39 innings last year. If they can keep him healthy, that's a slam-dunk for productivity. After that, Gregerson is 70 innings of quality relief in the bank, and they really like what Dale Thayer did in the closer role last year (seven saves). The ballpark helps, but they really, really need a healthy Street.
OVERVIEW
This is one of the least exciting teams in the majors. They have one "star" but he's a guy that they've openly discussed in trade deals (to save money), and he isn't the most exciting guy in the first place. The rotation is where they need to make waves, but the arms just aren't there at the major-league level right now. It's going to be a long year in San Diego... except for the 80-degree weather and sunshine.
PREDICTION
69-93, 4th in NL West
LINEUP
Projected Starters - Nick Hundley/Yasmani Grandal (suspended) (C), Yonder Alonso (1B), Logan Forsythe (2B), Everth Cabrera (SS), Chase Headley (3B), Carlos Quentin (LF), Cameron Maybin (CF), Will Venable (RF)
Chase Headley had a monster break-out campaign in 2012. He was worth 7.5 WAR (on Fangraphs), which was good for 6th in all of baseball, and he hit 31 homers, stole 17 bases, and ended with an .874 OPS while playing half his games in Petco. That's a big-time year. It's a shame that the rest of the lineup doesn't match that pace. Cameron Maybin's value comes from defense, and he lost his power (8 homers in 561 PA's) last season, while Yander Alonso (their prize acquisition in the Mat Latos deal) managed to hit for average and get on-base, but with surprisingly little pop (.393 slugging). They are in desperate need of a power surge from Quentin and/or Venable in the corners, and some on-base magic from Forsythe or Cabrera (who stole 44 bases in 449 PAs). It's not a disaster, but it isn't good, and Headley probably can't be counted on for another top-10 season.
ROTATION
Projected - Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Jason Marquis, Eric Stults, Tyson Ross/Casey Kelly
The #1 pitcher (by Fangraphs WAR) for the 2012 San Diego Padres was worth 1.3 WAR. His name is Edinson Volquez, and while he's a talented pitcher, 1.3 WAR is 4th/5th starter material. Yikes. Since we're talking about Volquez, he's a guy with big-time strikeout stuff who just can't seem to get the walk-rate (over 5 per 9 last year) under control enough to be a high-end pitcher. Richard is a control-only, "Petco" guy who never strikes anyone out (4.4 per 9!), but threw 218 innings of 3.99 ERA ball last year and returns as their "consistent" guy. After that, it's a mess. Marquis started 15 games in San Diego, and while I'm actually bullish on him in that ballpark, he wasn't spectacular (4.04 ERA, 4.28 FIP) in the second half. Stults had a tremendous 2.92 ERA between the bullpen and rotation last year, but his peripherals scream "fluke" as his xFIP climbs to 4.44 and he strikes out a Richard-like 4.97 batters per nine. Casey Kelly is the prize prospect that they got in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, but he's struggled mightily with the big club, and he'll battle the former Oakland A's prospect Tyson Ross for the final spot. Because of the ballpark, they could post deceivingly low ERA's, but this isn't a good group.
BULLPEN
Projected - Huston Street (closer), Luke Gregerson, Dale Thayer, Brad Brach, Nick Vincent, Joe Thatcher
This is historically a strength for San Diego. Huston Street is always good when he pitches, but he's also always hurt and threw just 39 innings last year. If they can keep him healthy, that's a slam-dunk for productivity. After that, Gregerson is 70 innings of quality relief in the bank, and they really like what Dale Thayer did in the closer role last year (seven saves). The ballpark helps, but they really, really need a healthy Street.
OVERVIEW
This is one of the least exciting teams in the majors. They have one "star" but he's a guy that they've openly discussed in trade deals (to save money), and he isn't the most exciting guy in the first place. The rotation is where they need to make waves, but the arms just aren't there at the major-league level right now. It's going to be a long year in San Diego... except for the 80-degree weather and sunshine.
PREDICTION
69-93, 4th in NL West
2013 MLB Preview #27: Colorado Rockies
Greetings! Let's head out to Denver and visit the pitching-challenged Rockies!
LINEUP
Projected Starters - Wilin Rosario (C), Todd Helton/Tyler Colvin (1B), Josh Rutledge (2B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Chris Nelson (3B), Carlos Gonzalez (LF), Dexter Fowler (CF), Michael Cuddyer (RF)
Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are back to anchor the best part of the Rockies squad. Tulo is the best shortstop on the planet when he's healthy, having cranked out four separate seasons of 5.5 WAR or better. He's a power-hitting guy (career .868 OPS) from a premium position and a legit star. The only knock on him is that he can't stay on the field, having played 122 games or less in three of the past five seasons. Gonzalez had an .881 OPS with 22 homers and 20 steals in a "down" year last year. The outfielder has some defensive and durability issues, but when he plays, he's good. After those two guys and the ever-steady Michael Cuddyer (.806 OPS last year), the questions come. Dexter Fowler is a "toolsy" guy in center who finally put it together in 2012 with a .389 OBP, 13 homers, and 12 steals, but can he repeat it? Josh Rutledge and Wilin Rosario both debuted in a big way last season, combining for 36 homers in just over 700 PA's, but both guys are very green and have a lot to prove. The Helton/Colvin combo is a classic "devil you don't know over devil you know" situation, as Colvin has big-time power upside (and downside) while Helton will hit .300 rolling out of bed. This is a solid lineup, and they should produce at a high level, especially in Coors Field.
ROTATION
Projected - Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De la Rosa, Jeff Francis, Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz/Tyler Chatwood
And after all of that positivity... the wheels come off. The leader in Fangraphs WAR among Colorado pitchers last year? Matt Belisle. He's a relief pitcher. That's never a good sign. Chacin is coming off of a bad/injured year (4.43 ERA in 69 innings), De La Rosa is coming back from Tommy John, Nicasio had a 5.28 ERA in a limited role in 2012, Francis is Francis (aka he's terrible and has a career 4.86 ERA with no strikeout upside), and the Pomeranz/Chatwood duo is unproven. Sound good to anyone? At least the Rockies have abandoned the insane 4-man shortened rotation, but it'd be a miracle if this was an average rotation in 2013.
BULLPEN
Projected - Rafael Betancourt (closer), Matt Belisle, Adam Ottavino, Wilton Lopez, Rex Brothers, Josh Outman
Betancourt saved 31 games last year and is now "proven" in the role (lol). More importantly, he's a strikeout guy (nearly a K per IP) and he posted really nice peripherals last season. Brothers and Belisle are the late-inning, high-leverage guys and both are quite good. Brothers is their "closer" of the future, and a guy who struck out over 11 batters per 9 last season with high-end stuff. After that, it's not a "who's who", but this is a solid unit if they stay healthy and avoid the Coors trouble.
OVERVIEW
In the end, the rotation is going to undue the 2013 Rockies. The lineup, when healthy, has the potential to be among the best in the NL, but with exactly zero reliable starting pitchers, that's a tough hill to climb. Things will be better than in 2012, but not by much.
PREDICTION
66-96, 5th in NL West
LINEUP
Projected Starters - Wilin Rosario (C), Todd Helton/Tyler Colvin (1B), Josh Rutledge (2B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Chris Nelson (3B), Carlos Gonzalez (LF), Dexter Fowler (CF), Michael Cuddyer (RF)
Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez are back to anchor the best part of the Rockies squad. Tulo is the best shortstop on the planet when he's healthy, having cranked out four separate seasons of 5.5 WAR or better. He's a power-hitting guy (career .868 OPS) from a premium position and a legit star. The only knock on him is that he can't stay on the field, having played 122 games or less in three of the past five seasons. Gonzalez had an .881 OPS with 22 homers and 20 steals in a "down" year last year. The outfielder has some defensive and durability issues, but when he plays, he's good. After those two guys and the ever-steady Michael Cuddyer (.806 OPS last year), the questions come. Dexter Fowler is a "toolsy" guy in center who finally put it together in 2012 with a .389 OBP, 13 homers, and 12 steals, but can he repeat it? Josh Rutledge and Wilin Rosario both debuted in a big way last season, combining for 36 homers in just over 700 PA's, but both guys are very green and have a lot to prove. The Helton/Colvin combo is a classic "devil you don't know over devil you know" situation, as Colvin has big-time power upside (and downside) while Helton will hit .300 rolling out of bed. This is a solid lineup, and they should produce at a high level, especially in Coors Field.
ROTATION
Projected - Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De la Rosa, Jeff Francis, Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz/Tyler Chatwood
And after all of that positivity... the wheels come off. The leader in Fangraphs WAR among Colorado pitchers last year? Matt Belisle. He's a relief pitcher. That's never a good sign. Chacin is coming off of a bad/injured year (4.43 ERA in 69 innings), De La Rosa is coming back from Tommy John, Nicasio had a 5.28 ERA in a limited role in 2012, Francis is Francis (aka he's terrible and has a career 4.86 ERA with no strikeout upside), and the Pomeranz/Chatwood duo is unproven. Sound good to anyone? At least the Rockies have abandoned the insane 4-man shortened rotation, but it'd be a miracle if this was an average rotation in 2013.
BULLPEN
Projected - Rafael Betancourt (closer), Matt Belisle, Adam Ottavino, Wilton Lopez, Rex Brothers, Josh Outman
Betancourt saved 31 games last year and is now "proven" in the role (lol). More importantly, he's a strikeout guy (nearly a K per IP) and he posted really nice peripherals last season. Brothers and Belisle are the late-inning, high-leverage guys and both are quite good. Brothers is their "closer" of the future, and a guy who struck out over 11 batters per 9 last season with high-end stuff. After that, it's not a "who's who", but this is a solid unit if they stay healthy and avoid the Coors trouble.
OVERVIEW
In the end, the rotation is going to undue the 2013 Rockies. The lineup, when healthy, has the potential to be among the best in the NL, but with exactly zero reliable starting pitchers, that's a tough hill to climb. Things will be better than in 2012, but not by much.
PREDICTION
66-96, 5th in NL West
3/4: Hawks/Lakers, etc.
Greetings! Back from the extended absence... let's go!
- The Hawks and Lakers played the best game of the day on Sunday (against all odds), and, of course, the Hawks came out on the losing end of the 99-98 decision. The late-game events were pretty intense, including a massive Kobe dunk, a blatantly missed traveling call (and a "where's the foul?" call on the same play), the execution of the best play in the NBA (the Smith/Horford high-low), and the final possession where Teague's pass to Smith was a fraction late, causing Smith to bobble and not get a shot off. It was a valiant effort from the Hawks, and another 20-point game from Al Horford (he had 24), but it wasn't quite enough to unseat a 34-point explosion from Kobe Bean Bryant.
- NBA Roundup - Miami went into New York, got a 99-93 win, and tied their franchise record with 14 straight wins. Lebron James went for 29/11/7 and they heat crushed NY by a 20-point margin. See my Fansided article here for the whole recap, but that's the gist. In the late game, OKC went into LA and knocked off the Clippers 108-104. Kevin Durant (35 points, 8 rebounds) and Russ Westbrook (29 points, 10 assists) carried the torch for OKC, but they also caused LAC to commit 20 turnovers and that was crucial. Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Jamal Crawford each had 20+ for LA, but it wasn't efficient and the turnovers did them in. Sacramento beat Charlotte by 36 points. I'll give no insight here, but to say that we live in a world where the Kings shouldn't beat anyone by 36 points. Ever. Houston put up 136 points and basically ran the Mavs out of the gym in a 33-point win. Chandler Parsons had 32 points to pace the Rockets. And finally, San Antonio blitzed Detroit by a lopsided 114-75 final, and in the absence of Tony Parker, they haven't come apart at the seams (yet).
- The Battle of Michigan took place in Ann Arbor... and the good guys won. The Wolverines held on for dear life in a 58-57 win over Sparty, and it took a final-possession steal by Trey Burke to seal the win. Burke had 21 points, 8 assists, 5 steals, and 4 rebounds to lead Michigan, who somehow won the game despite getting killed on the glass (41-28). Go Blue.
- CBB Weekend Roundup - Wisconsin got blown out... at home!? The Badgers lost to Purdue in Madison by a score of 69-56 and I can't remember the last time they lost by double-figures at home. On Saturday, Duke held serve at home against #5 Miami in a great battle, 76-73. Ryan Kelly came back from a 2-month layoff and exploded with 36 points (including 7-for-9 from three) to key the Blue Devils win. Storybook stuff. UCLA got a huge home win over #11 Arizona, 74-69, and the Bruins are suddenly an NCAA factor after going 12-4 in the Pac-12 so far. Finally, Louisville went on the road to the Carrier Dome and knocked off Syracuse, 58-53. It was a battle of offensive ineptitude as neither team cracked 40% shooting, but the 'Cuse is in real trouble as they are in a tailspin.
- We have our second MLB injury of the Spring (Curtis Granderson holds the #1 distinction) as Matt Garza will miss all of April with recurring pain in his left side. This is a huge blow to an already-sketchy Chicago rotation, and former Notre Dame receiver Jeff Samardzija will now start on opening day for the Cubs. Yikes.
What to watch for on Monday...
- 7:00 - NCAAB - Cincinnati @ #10 Louisville (ESPN) - Louisville is in full-on "play for their seed" mode, and they need a win here.
- 8:00 - NBA - Heat @ T-Wolves (NBATV) - The Heat look to make their winning streak 15 games on the road in Minnesota. They're (obviously) the better team, but a road back-to-back is never easy.
- 9:00 - NBA - Hawks @ Nuggets (SportSouth) - Road back-to-backs that end in Denver are never good. In fact, it's basically where road teams go to die. Eesh.
- 9:00 - NCAAB - Baylor @ Texas (ESPN) - On paper? This looks like a good game, but both teams are .500-or-worse in the Big 12. There's talent, though.
Enjoy!
Friday, March 1, 2013
Will Return...
Greetings, everyone. Please forgive lack of content over the past few days as I've been down for the count with some medical stuff. This is NOT a "break" from writing and ill be back soon! Stay tuned.
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