2010 MLB Preview Extra: Atlanta Braves

Greetings fellow Braves fans (and anyone else who may read this).... I've gotten several recommendations for an extensive Braves breakdown outside of the short blurb in the MLB Preview... here's what I came up with....

Projected Lineup:

1. Nate McLouth - CF
2. Martin Prado - 2B
3. Chipper Jones - 3B
4. Troy Glaus - 1B
5. Brian McCann - C
6. Yunel Escobar - SS
7. Jason Heyward - RF
8. Matt Diaz/Melky Cabrera - LF

Okay... most Braves fans of any depth could come up with those 8... Diaz and Melky will likely platoon based upon the opposing starting pitcher, but the other 7 slots are everyday lock-ins as of now....

Infield

• First Base - Troy Glaus is the key to the offense IMO.... he hit 27 homers in 2008 before missing all of last year with injury... and that was in the superior league (AL)... he has shown to be 100% healthy, and is certainly capable of 25-30 HR with a bottom-end projection (if healthy) in the 17-19 HR range.... His backup(s) are Eric Hinske (veteran bat, won't kill you), and Prado could play some 1B if necessary...
• Second Base - Martin Prado will hit .300, and play good defense... he's not flashy or spectacular but he'll get the job done from a position where you don't need power... Behind him you have Omar Infante (professional utility guy who everyone loves) and either Brooks Conrad or Joe Thurston who are still vying for the last positional spot... Conrad has been killing the ball all spring and I'd bet on him making the club
• Shortstop - Yunel Escobar is a top 10 shortstop in the Majors in my opinion... pencil him in for .300 with 15+ HR and above-average defense... can't ask for much more from your #6 hitter and he absolutely murdered opposing pitching with RISP last year... behind him is the Infante/Conrad/Prado contingent, but it would be a big loss if he went down for any length of time....
• Third Base - Ah, Chipper... those who know me know I have never been the biggest Chipper guy... for some reason he rubs me the wrong way... that said, he's become very good defensively at 3rd, and while his batting numbers were WAY down from 2008 last year, I think he'll enjoy a decent uptick from those numbers... thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of .290-.300 avg, 20 HR, 85-90 RBI.... not old-school MVP chipper, but solid and much better than last year.... His primary backup is Hinske with all of the utility guys having the ability to play there....
• Catcher - McCann is the 2nd best catcher in the majors behind Mauer and the best position player on the roster... he's as sure of a thing behind the plate as they come... .290-300, 20 HR, 75 RBI and good defense... love him.... David Ross is a very capable backup who seems to be locked in there, and Clint Sammons is a very solid 3rd option should he be needed

Outfield

• Left Field - Melky/Diaz.... Matt Diaz absolutely destroys LHP (.412 batting average vs. lefties last year) and basically, he's gonna hit the ball... he's a below-average fielder and fairly average against righties, making him a great platoon option to play against lefties mostly.... Melky Cabrera plays Center-field caliber defense, and is a .275-ish hitter against righties... not alot of power but he can run a little and won't kill you in the lineup... I like the platoon alot... The Braves will likely only carry 4 outfielders because Infante can play outfield as well....
• Center Field - McLouth has been fairly woeful in Spring but has come around in the last few days... most projections I've seen have him hitting in the .260 range with 20-25 HR and 70-75 RBI... not a prototypical lead-off guy (a black mark against the Braves lineup) but he has the ability to steal 25 bases, and have an OBP in the .340-.350 range... very solid... Melky is the #1 option behind him in Center....
• Right Field - The next Hank Aaron.... wait for it... laughter.... Jason Heyward is considered to be the #1 positional prospect in all of baseball... but he's still 20 years old... and I think we need to take a collective step back on him at least for the immediate... is he capable of hitting 25-30 HR as a rookie? Maybe... but I wouldn't rely on it... .300 hitter? Maybe... but I think .280 is more likely considering his youth... he is, by all accounts, an above-average fielder, he can run, and he has advanced plate awareness... and I love the prospect of him as the everyday RF... I really do... But my guard is up a little.... blame Francoeur if you want to... Diaz/Melky could both play right and even Infante if necessary behind him....

The Projected Rotation

1. Derek Lowe
2. Jair Jurrjens
3. Tommy Hanson
4. Tim Hudson
5. Kenshin Kawakami

I love it... I think it's the most balanced/deepest rotation in the NL... Derek Lowe was among the unluckiest pitchers in the league last year (hilariously unlucky BABIP=batting average on balls in play, etc.) and he's due for an uptick.... Jurrjens was tremendous last year and there's nothing to suggest that he won't be again... look for an ERA in the low 3s and while he doesn't strike out alot of guys, he stays out of trouble.... Tommy Hanson is a top-5 young arm in the league and alot of people think he'll make the leap... I happen to be one of them... I see 15-17 wins and 190-200 Ks from him, electric.... Hudson is the real X-factor, but he's been tremendous in Spring, and if he can be 90% of what he used to be, this will be an electrifying group... I think he wins 15+ and returns to his late Oakland/Early ATL form.... Kawakami just needs to be solid and I think he will be... he's a big-game pitcher (beating Halladay, Hamels, etc. head-to-head last year down the stretch)... ERA in the high 3s to low 4s who will be above-average especially considering he's the 5th starter and will have less starts than the other 4.... Very excited

Bullpen

• Billy Wagner (Closer)
• Takashi Saito (Set-up man, #1 backup closer)
• Peter Moylan (Set-up)
• Eric O'Flaherty (LHP)
• Scott Proctor
• Kris Medlen (#6 starter, long reliever)
• Craig Kimbrel
• Jesse Chavez

I'll be honest and say the last few jobs in the bullpen are up for grabs so this will be inexact... but we do know the "big 4" jobs are in place... Billy Wagner is back to hitting 100 on the radar gun and appears totally healthy....it's a huge "if" but if he's healthy, I think he saves 30-35 with a low 2s ERA... Saito is older, but very effective and has extensive closing experience if Wagner goes down for any length of time... Moylan has posted 2 sub-2.00 ERA seasons and hasn't had an ERA above 2.84 in the last 3 years... he has dominant stuff and should be effective... O'Flaherty is the #1 situational lefty and while I don't love him, he posted a 3.04 ERA last year, and was even more effective vs. LH... The rest of the bullpen is fairly unsettled which is a concern... I do like Medlen has the emergency starter/long relief guy... he has significant upside and was effective in the 2nd half last year.... To wrap the bullpen... there are injury concerns, but I don't hate the composition of the staff, and if they are at least average, the pitching is a plus for the team as a whole... and I love Wagner...

Overall Projection

Okay, all of that.... and here we are... As I picked in the larger MLB Preview... I have the Braves going 89-73 and winning the NL Wild Card.... Do I think they could challenge the Phillies? Actually, yes... but it's basically just a case of there being more question marks with Atlanta than with Philly... Overall, I'm highly excited and I feel like this is the best Braves roster since 2004 when they won 96 games and were a veritable juggernaut, but I'm trying to be wholly realistic and I think Philly has the better team when projecting the realistic range of outcomes... But of course, Go Braves

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2010 MLB Preview Part 7: Playoffs, Awards, etc.

Greetings... Let's get right to it...

NL Awards

• MVP - Albert Pujols, STL
• Cy Young - Roy Halladay, PHI
• Rookie of the Year - Aroldis Chapman, SP, CIN
• Manager of the Year - Bobby Cox, ATL

AL Awards

• MVP - Evan Longoria, TB
• Cy Young - Felix Hernandez, SEA
• Rookie of the Year - Scott Sizemore, DET
• Manager of the Year - Ron Washington, TEX

NL Playoffs

• Phillies over Dodgers, Braves over Cardinals
• Phillies over Braves (That pains me, but too much 1-2 pitching)

AL Playoffs

• Red Sox over Rangers, Yankees over White Sox
• Red Sox over Yankees

World Series

• Phillies over Red Sox in 6

Let the reverse jinx commence!

2010 MLB Preview Part 6: NL East

First of all.... Don't fret Braves fans... although I'm doing the normal "quick-hitter" on them for the division preview... I'll keep my word and do a more detailed version before Opening day....To the East...

1. Philadelphia Phillies (94-68) - By far the best lineup in the National League, and easily top 3 in baseball... Utley/Howard/Rollins/Ibanez/Werth... what do you even say? Hamels should bounce back from what everyone is saying, and Roy Halladay will absolutely dominate the NL... Really the only achilles heel is the closer spot (Lidge is awful, and there isn't another real option), which will remain a concern unless Lidge turns back the clock... Also, they have Jamie Moyer penciled in the rotation... he's almost 50 years old... But Philly is the best team in the NL
2. Atlanta Braves (89-73) - Deepest and most balanced rotation in the National League... and a bullpen, though with some risk, that is deep and talented with Wagner/Saito/Moylan with closer stuff.... Power is still the issue, but there really isn't an easy out in the lineup now that Heyward is penciled in as the right fielder, and they can platoon Diaz/Melky in left... I really like what Frank Wren has done... and 89 wins gets them the wild card...
3. Florida Marlins (80-82) - Most people are higher on them than I am... Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco are both exceptional talents, but the rest of the staff falls off a cliff after them... they have a young lineup led by All-world SS Hanley Ramirez, but there are still questions with unproven guys like Maybin, and up-and-down guys like Uggla and Cody Ross... The bullpen is a mess as well, and I can't take them seriously as a threat to Philly and Atlanta just yet
4. New York Mets (77-85) - Health, Pitching, and Power.... the 3 issues... Seems major, eh? Reyes and Beltran are giant question marks with health (Reyes is active now, but recent history can't be ignored), After the world-beating Johan Santana, there 2 thru 5 starters are John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez, and Jon Niese... done and done... and without Beltran and the departed Carlos Delgado, the lack of power is striking outside of Jason Bay and David Wright (who didn't hit for power last year either)... there's talent... and it wouldn't shock me if they won 80-85 games, but I don't see it
5. Washington Nationals (68-94) - The lineup is more potent than in past years... Guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, and Nyjer Morgan are real assets with the bat... but the depth isn't there (they start Willie Harris and the corpse of Pudge Rodriguez), and the pitching is still woeful until you get to a Strasburg call-up in June... They won't be absolutely wretched... but they can't compete...

There you have it... All 6 divisions... Part 7 to come with predictions for awards and playoffs... Almost opening day...

The Madness: On to the Final 4

Crazy weekend...

• Butler topples another giant... I've been on record against this K-State team and they finally (2 rounds late) came through for me.... Butler's half-court defense was a clinic on how to shut down perimeter scoring despite having an athletic disadvantage... They made plays down the stretch and bottled up Pullen for 40 minutes... On the K-State side, props to Curtis Kelly, who I thoroughly enjoy and thought he played well each time I saw him through the tourney.... Butler is going home to the Final 4 and they have a very winnable game....
• Kentucky folds up the tent... Goodbye to John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Patrick Patterson (and maybe Bledsoe and Orton for good measure).... they just couldn't make a jump-shot all night (4 of 32 threes for starters), and it felt like they were pressing from the jump... maybe it's youth, maybe it's just bad execution... Props to Bob Huggins (wow, I just said that) for putting together a game plan to slow them down, and Joe Mazzulla for playing the game of his life (career-high 17 after averaging 2 ppg this year)...
• Izzo does it again... I can't overstate how ridiculous it is that Michigan State is in the Final 4 despite losing last year's Big 10 player of the year (and their best player by far) in Kalin Lucas for the year 2 games ago...factor in that 3rd guard Chris Allen is still hobbled, and they weren't the most talented team to begin with.... and you get the Izzo factor... Granted, there was some luck involved...namely their draw opening up when Kansas and Ohio State went down... but despite them being the higher seed in both of their last 2 games, they were definitely not the favorites (as Vegas would attest) in either one... For Tennessee, a valiant effort especially when you consider what they lost in January, but they couldn't make the plays at the end... Izzo...
• And Duke saves CBS.... can you imagine the "ratings bonanza" that a Final 4 of Butler, Michigan State, West Virginia, and Baylor would've been!??!? laughter ensues... Even WITH Duke, this will feel like a letdown to some people, but behind Nolan Smith's 29, Duke was able to beat a team with better athletes, and beat them despite Kyle Singler shooting 0 for 10... 0 for 10! Duke is now the default favorite... but an imminently beatable one....

The 4 is set... Saturday will match Michigan State and Butler at 6:07, and Duke/West Virginia to follow 30 minutes after... For the picks? I'll put them up Friday....

The Madness: Sweet 16 Thursday Wrap

Greetings...

• The Xavier/K-State game was one for the ages for how it went back-and-forth, double-OT, insane shot-making, etc... but it was honestly one of the worst executed games in memory on both ends (sorry for the damper)... That said, Jacob Pullen was unreal in the OTs for K-State and Jordan Crawford hit multiple 30-footers for Xavier... really entertaining battle, and despite my strong dislike for Frank Martin (K-State HC), they are into the Elite 8 and the favorite to make the final 4....
• Somehow Butler was upstaged a bit by the theatrics of the late game... but the way they battled back from the big Syracuse run (to take a 54-50 lead with 3 minutes left) shouldn't be forgotten... gritty team.... Syracuse was its own worst nightmare with turnovers galore and the absolute refusal to give the ball to Wes Johnson down the stretch (even though he had shown to be unguardable)... Kind of shocking from a veteran team to put together a meltdown like that...
• Kentucky/Cornell was certainly a "styles make fights" game... and there were stretches where the Big Red definitely seemed to have Kentucky flustered (even cutting the lead to 6 fairly late), but they couldn't make enough threes, and there was just enough fast break time for Wall and company to win fairly easily... The only "chalk" elite 8 matchup was set when...
• West Virginia exploded in the 2nd half against Washington.... this was a pretty ugly game as well... both teams shot 40% from the field, neither shot even 30% from distance, and both committed over 20 turnovers (wow)... those numbers tell the story, but WV gritted another one behind their vets and a big run in the middle of the 2nd half to put it away... I'm not the biggest Huggins fan, but I like their chances against Kentucky because they actually have the athletes to stay on the floor with them

Big games Friday... check out my preview edition (from Monday) for full writeups but I like Duke, Baylor, Ohio State and I've actually flipped on a game since then... picking Northern Iowa but let's just say I'd never bet against Tom Izzo in Vegas (aka I'm clueless on that game)

2010 MLB Preview Part 5: NL Central

Winding down a bit here... 2 more divisions (starting with this one) and a final Part 7 wrap with postseason predictions/awards/etc.... To the Central...

1. St. Louis Cardinals (89-73) - The best 1/2 punch pitching-wise in the NL with apologies to Halladay and Hamels... Matt Holliday with a full season to murder NL pitching along with youth and professional hitters covering the lineup... The question mark is the back end of the rotation but I actually like Kyle Lohse... and really, they still have that Pujols guy... done and done
2. Milwaukee Brewers (80-82) - Bit of a leap of faith here... they have the big boppers (Braun and Fielder), a legit stopper in the rotation (the wildly underrated Yovani Gallardo), and a professional/hall of fame closer in Trevor Hoffman... there are some issues in the back-end of the rotation (cough, Manny Parra), and a big question mark in Rickie Weeks at the top of the order... but I like them enough to be the "best of the rest" here
3. Cincinnati Reds (79-83) - Seeing Aroldis Chapman's numbers in the Spring probably bumped them 2 wins... at any rate, Aaron Harang was the unluckiest pitcher in the majors last year statistically (too complicated for this, so trust me), and the lineup is littered with talent from the stars (Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto), to underappreciated vets (Orlando Cabrera, Scott Rolen)... and Francisco Cordero is a better-than-average late-game option.. I like this team... in another year or so, when the starting pitching catches up... they'll compete heavily
4. Chicago Cubs (78-84) - When looking at the Cubs roster, it surprised me how down I was... they count WAY too heavily on an outfield of Soriano, Marlon Byrd, and Fukudome (yikes), and need impeccable health from Derrek Lee and Carlos Zambrano to even get to 78 wins IMO... the rotation is decent, but they are saddled with Carlos Silva's corpse (whom they had to take back for Milton Bradley), and the bullpen is still shaky at best...
5. Houston Astros (75-87) - Lots of guys I like... lots of guys I don't.... story of the 2010 Astros... they utterly refuse to rebuild apparently, and guys like Berkman (older, injured) and Oswalt are guys I trust, but aren't at their peaks anymore most likely... Pencil Carlos Lee in for 30 and 100, and Hunter Pence is underrated... but Michael Bourn, Kaz Matsui, and Pedro Feliz? Get outta here with that.... I do love Wandy Rodriguez though... dude can pitch...
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93) - I'm dead serious when I say that the typical sports fan may not know one player on the Pirates... they have some pretty good young talent in the lineup (McCutcheon, Garrett Jones, Lastings Milledge), but too much youth, and too many holes... the pitching is fairly woeful (although I like their "Number 1" in Paul Maholm), and their closer is Octavio Dotel... you gotta be kidding me....

Pretty mediocre/bad after the Cards... surprisingly so after looking through the talent on each club... and the Pirates may not have a winning season for 17 more years.... it's a joke really.... Part 6 on the way fairly soon with my very own NL East... and for the Braves fans who have been asking... I'll still be a doing a preview like this for the East, but I'll give you your own in-depth Braves rundown in a separate column... Until then...

2010 MLB Preview Part 4: NL West

Part 4....

1. LA Dodgers (87-75) - This was a tight one... It came down to the progression that I see happening from Kershaw (he'll be dominant), and "rebound" years from Manny, and even a slight one from Russell Martin... The bullpen depth is good, and the rotation has high upside... and you can't sleep on a Joe Torre team...
2. Colorado Rockies (86-76) - Really like the Rockies this year... Mostly because their pitching is quietly good... Ubaldo Jimenez is an underappreciated stud and I like De La Rosa and Cook as well... Tulowitzki may be the 3rd best shortstop in the game behind Hanley and Jeter... and professional hitters are everywhere in that lineup... the bullpen is a bit spotty, and they'll need to avoid the slow start they are suddenly accustomed to...
3. Arizona D-Backs (82-80) - My biggest screwup last year? Picking the D-Backs to win the National League... yikes... I still really like parts of the lineup (Upton is a monster, Drew is very good, etc.) but the real question mark is Brandon Webb... Dan Haren is elite but Webb needs to be very good for them to compete... I do like Edwin Jackson coming over to the NL alot... the bullpen is a mess however, and that's the reason they land here
4. San Francisco Giants (81-81) - Well... they can sure pitch... Lincecum/Cain/Sanchez forms a young trio of live arms, and Zito is at least steady... the issue, as always, is the power (or lack thereof)... Sandoval is a beast, but around him are steady guys with low upside and/or defense-first older veterans... I just don't see enough pop...
5. San Diego Padres (69-93) - This is a mess of a franchise... I feel bad for Adrian Gonzalez, who is a truly elite option at 1st base, because the only other proven commodity in that lineup is David Eckstein and he's not exactly putting fear into opposing pitcher's hearts.. The rotation is young and talented (I like Clayton Richard and Kevin Correia) but their closer, Heath Bell, is on the trade market already, and they seem to have punted 2010 already... nothing to see here...

Very competitive from the top 4 here... and it wouldn't surprise me if any of them won it simply because they all have recognizable strengths followed up by injury risks and/or youth, youth, youth... Part 5 to come in the next day or so with the NL Central...