Wednesday, March 31, 2010

2010 MLB Preview Extra: Atlanta Braves

Greetings fellow Braves fans (and anyone else who may read this).... I've gotten several recommendations for an extensive Braves breakdown outside of the short blurb in the MLB Preview... here's what I came up with....

Projected Lineup:
  1. Nate McLouth - CF
  2. Martin Prado - 2B
  3. Chipper Jones - 3B
  4. Troy Glaus - 1B
  5. Brian McCann - C
  6. Yunel Escobar - SS
  7. Jason Heyward - RF
  8. Matt Diaz/Melky Cabrera - LF
Okay... most Braves fans of any depth could come up with those 8... Diaz and Melky will likely platoon based upon the opposing starting pitcher, but the other 7 slots are everyday lock-ins as of now....

Infield
  • First Base - Troy Glaus is the key to the offense IMO.... he hit 27 homers in 2008 before missing all of last year with injury... and that was in the superior league (AL)... he has shown to be 100% healthy, and is certainly capable of 25-30 HR with a bottom-end projection (if healthy) in the 17-19 HR range.... His backup(s) are Eric Hinske (veteran bat, won't kill you), and Prado could play some 1B if necessary...
  • Second Base - Martin Prado will hit .300, and play good defense... he's not flashy or spectacular but he'll get the job done from a position where you don't need power... Behind him you have Omar Infante (professional utility guy who everyone loves) and either Brooks Conrad or Joe Thurston who are still vying for the last positional spot... Conrad has been killing the ball all spring and I'd bet on him making the club
  • Shortstop - Yunel Escobar is a top 10 shortstop in the Majors in my opinion... pencil him in for .300 with 15+ HR and above-average defense... can't ask for much more from your #6 hitter and he absolutely murdered opposing pitching with RISP last year... behind him is the Infante/Conrad/Prado contingent, but it would be a big loss if he went down for any length of time....
  • Third Base - Ah, Chipper... those who know me know I have never been the biggest Chipper guy... for some reason he rubs me the wrong way... that said, he's become very good defensively at 3rd, and while his batting numbers were WAY down from 2008 last year, I think he'll enjoy a decent uptick from those numbers... thinking somewhere in the neighborhood of .290-.300 avg, 20 HR, 85-90 RBI.... not old-school MVP chipper, but solid and much better than last year.... His primary backup is Hinske with all of the utility guys having the ability to play there....
  • Catcher - McCann is the 2nd best catcher in the majors behind Mauer and the best position player on the roster... he's as sure of a thing behind the plate as they come... .290-300, 20 HR, 75 RBI and good defense... love him.... David Ross is a very capable backup who seems to be locked in there, and Clint Sammons is a very solid 3rd option should he be needed
Outfield
  • Left Field - Melky/Diaz.... Matt Diaz absolutely destroys LHP (.412 batting average vs. lefties last year) and basically, he's gonna hit the ball... he's a below-average fielder and fairly average against righties, making him a great platoon option to play against lefties mostly.... Melky Cabrera plays Center-field caliber defense, and is a .275-ish hitter against righties... not alot of power but he can run a little and won't kill you in the lineup... I like the platoon alot... The Braves will likely only carry 4 outfielders because Infante can play outfield as well....
  • Center Field - McLouth has been fairly woeful in Spring but has come around in the last few days... most projections I've seen have him hitting in the .260 range with 20-25 HR and 70-75 RBI... not a prototypical lead-off guy (a black mark against the Braves lineup) but he has the ability to steal 25 bases, and have an OBP in the .340-.350 range... very solid... Melky is the #1 option behind him in Center....
  • Right Field - The next Hank Aaron.... wait for it... laughter.... Jason Heyward is considered to be the #1 positional prospect in all of baseball... but he's still 20 years old... and I think we need to take a collective step back on him at least for the immediate... is he capable of hitting 25-30 HR as a rookie? Maybe... but I wouldn't rely on it... .300 hitter? Maybe... but I think .280 is more likely considering his youth... he is, by all accounts, an above-average fielder, he can run, and he has advanced plate awareness... and I love the prospect of him as the everyday RF... I really do... But my guard is up a little.... blame Francoeur if you want to... Diaz/Melky could both play right and even Infante if necessary behind him....
The Projected Rotation
  1. Derek Lowe
  2. Jair Jurrjens
  3. Tommy Hanson
  4. Tim Hudson
  5. Kenshin Kawakami
I love it... I think it's the most balanced/deepest rotation in the NL... Derek Lowe was among the unluckiest pitchers in the league last year (hilariously unlucky BABIP=batting average on balls in play, etc.) and he's due for an uptick.... Jurrjens was tremendous last year and there's nothing to suggest that he won't be again... look for an ERA in the low 3s and while he doesn't strike out alot of guys, he stays out of trouble.... Tommy Hanson is a top-5 young arm in the league and alot of people think he'll make the leap... I happen to be one of them... I see 15-17 wins and 190-200 Ks from him, electric.... Hudson is the real X-factor, but he's been tremendous in Spring, and if he can be 90% of what he used to be, this will be an electrifying group... I think he wins 15+ and returns to his late Oakland/Early ATL form.... Kawakami just needs to be solid and I think he will be... he's a big-game pitcher (beating Halladay, Hamels, etc. head-to-head last year down the stretch)... ERA in the high 3s to low 4s who will be above-average especially considering he's the 5th starter and will have less starts than the other 4.... Very excited

Bullpen
  • Billy Wagner (Closer)
  • Takashi Saito (Set-up man, #1 backup closer)
  • Peter Moylan (Set-up)
  • Eric O'Flaherty (LHP)
  • Scott Proctor
  • Kris Medlen (#6 starter, long reliever)
  • Craig Kimbrel
  • Jesse Chavez
I'll be honest and say the last few jobs in the bullpen are up for grabs so this will be inexact... but we do know the "big 4" jobs are in place... Billy Wagner is back to hitting 100 on the radar gun and appears totally healthy....it's a huge "if" but if he's healthy, I think he saves 30-35 with a low 2s ERA... Saito is older, but very effective and has extensive closing experience if Wagner goes down for any length of time... Moylan has posted 2 sub-2.00 ERA seasons and hasn't had an ERA above 2.84 in the last 3 years... he has dominant stuff and should be effective... O'Flaherty is the #1 situational lefty and while I don't love him, he posted a 3.04 ERA last year, and was even more effective vs. LH... The rest of the bullpen is fairly unsettled which is a concern... I do like Medlen has the emergency starter/long relief guy... he has significant upside and was effective in the 2nd half last year.... To wrap the bullpen... there are injury concerns, but I don't hate the composition of the staff, and if they are at least average, the pitching is a plus for the team as a whole... and I love Wagner...

Overall Projection

Okay, all of that.... and here we are... As I picked in the larger MLB Preview... I have the Braves going 89-73 and winning the NL Wild Card.... Do I think they could challenge the Phillies? Actually, yes... but it's basically just a case of there being more question marks with Atlanta than with Philly... Overall, I'm highly excited and I feel like this is the best Braves roster since 2004 when they won 96 games and were a veritable juggernaut, but I'm trying to be wholly realistic and I think Philly has the better team when projecting the realistic range of outcomes... But of course, Go Braves


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