The Joe Deal is Done...

Special edition here... some straight reaction to Arn Tellem (Joe Johnson's agent) reporting via his own release that Joe has decided to sign the 6-year max offer from the Hawks... a couple things for me...

As you know.... or can gather through past writings, I'm not a fan of the move... So let me get this part out of the way... I like Joe... I own his jersey, he's a productive scorer, from all accounts a good guy, and he's been put in an unfair position with this organization from the time he arrived (re: hey Joe, go score!)... Okay, that's out there... now to my concerns

1. The shear numbers... Joe Johnson being set to make 20+ million until the time he's 35 years old is troubling in and of itself... there's an argument to be made that from the time he signs he's overpaid (I tend to agree), but at the very least, I've heard no one argue that he WON'T be overpaid sooner rather than later... guys with similar pedigrees at the same position/size (re: Michael Finley for example) usually exhibit sharp declines when they reach 31-32 years old... Joe is 29 now... do the math... don't believe me that the x's and o's are as ugly as I say? Go check out Kelly Dwyer's immediate reaction to this deal basically anointing it as one of the worst contracts ever given (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Joe-Johnson-to-sign-a-ridiculous-deal-with-the-A?urn=nba,252877)... it's going to be ugly in 2015-2016... I cringe thinking about it
2. The Atlanta Spirit Group - Let me address this... there's a growing sentiment in the media that the ASG is set to exceed the luxury tax after making this signing, and it's being painted as a "first" move... not a final move, for this offseason... while this would severely lessen the initial blow of the general fear of this contract (re: the total and complete clogging of payroll), I will believe this when I see it... they've never been near the luxury tax, and I personally don't believe they'll exceed it... Also, there's a report peddled by David Aldridge that the ASG were okay with signing this contract simply because there's significant doubt that they'll be the owners at the end of it... That sounds more like it... I hope and pray that this move doesn't completely kill any salary flexibility going forward... but I think it does
3. The Crawfords - Rick Sund and company just drafted Jordan Crawford in the 1st round of this draft... Jordan Crawford is a shooting guard... so is Joe Johnson... not that there were any more pressing needs (cough, bigs or anyone that can defend a small forward)... as for Jamal? He has the one (outside of Al Horford who we've been told isn't moving) contract that is appealing to other teams in the form of a $10+ million expiring deal after this season... Sund is now charged with turning that money into an asset... and I can't see a scenario where it'd be wise to keep Jamal on the roster past the 2011 trade deadline because once that money comes off the books, there's no way of replacing that talent level since the club will be staying over the cap...
4. Al Horford - Horford is up for an extension any day now... will this overpayment put a roadblock in those efforts? Horford is considered to be a centerpiece of this franchise (and I'd agree), but there's a real possibility the ownership group will simply either a) balk at spending 8 figures on a 3rd player, or b) pay Horford a potential 8 figure salary and subsequently open the door for even MORE salary restriction elsewhere...

In the end, will the 2010-11 Hawks be better off with Joe Johnson than without him? Absolutely, and it's not close... the same goes for the 2011-12 version I'd imagine.. but if the Spirit Group doesn't open its pocketbook (possibly aided by a pending Thrashers sale?) to go into the tax and use the mid-level exception to lure additional talent for this year, and be willing to pay for Al Horford, this team will already have seen its best days in the form of the 53-win campaign we just saw... Count me skeptical of that group of previously overmatched gentlemen... This could be a sad day for a life-long Hawks fan... or it could be a sign of a changing/evolving ownership willing to whatever it takes to win, and being slightly short-sighted in this new endeavor by overpaying their "superstar"... let's hope it's the latter