Super Bowl XLV Preview

Before we begin... I wanted to say that I'm all done with roman numerals for the Super Bowl... at what point is this ridiculous? Am I the only one that feels this way? I have so many questions... alas... Onto the game... I'm stealing a page from Bill Simmons' via Dr. Jack Ramsey and giving you the Dr. Jack breakdown...

Secondary - Kicking things off on the backend... Pittsburgh has the defensive POY in Polamalu, some solid but unspectacular corners in McFadden and Taylor (who I like), and the hit-or-miss Ryan Clark at the other safety... for GB? They possess the 2009 DPOY in Charles Woodson (aka one of my favorite players ever for obvious reasons), Tramon Williams (suddenly a shut-down corner with big-play ability... see Ryan, Matt), and some embattled safeties in Collins/Bigby/Peprah... Personally? I like the steadiness of Pittsburgh's corners combined with the big-play ability of Polamalu, but don't discount Woodson and Williams locking down Wallace and Ward... Slight Edge: Pittsburgh

Linebackers - This is a barnburner... Clay Matthews was the 1-B to Polamalu's 1-A for defensive player of the year... AJ Hawk is a guy who's always been underrated IMO, but Bishop and Walden are pretty average from what I've seen... versus the gauntlet that Pittsburgh throws out there... I love Woodley (Wolverine!), Harrison is a beast (just ask Kurt Warner), and Farrior/Timmons in the middle is underrated and about as good as it gets... sorry GB... Edge: Pittsburgh

D-Line - BJ Raji is the best player on either DL right now... he's eating people up, and he gets the benefit of going against a wounded Pouncey or a backup... Cullen Jenkins is elite at times, and Pickett is average at worst... for Pittsburgh, their best D-lineman Aaron Smith was ruled out on Friday and that's a huge blow... Casey Hampton is a load and Ziggy Hood is developing, but they aren't on the level of Raji and Jenkins at this point... Edge: Green Bay

O-Line - I won't pretend to know individual tendencies of interior lineman... I just won't... but I do know this... Roethlisberger is consistently running for his life, they are down both starting OT's, currently playing FLOZELL ADAMS(!), and their all-pro center is walking around in a boot... I haven't been impressed with GB's O-line this year, but it has to go their way... Edge: Green Bay

Wide Receivers/Tight End - Gotta combine the 2 for me... anyway... Jennings vs. Wallace? I'll give it a push... you may be thinking that sounds crazy because Jennings is the more established guy, but they have nearly identical yardage totals (1265 to 1257), similar TD marks (12 to 10), and Jennings has done it in an offense geared to get him some numbers... Driver/Jones/Nelson vs. Ward/Sanders/Brown is pretty firmly in GB's side IMO because Ward isn't the same player anymore, and Jones and Nelson are proven options... at tight end, the edge goes to Pittsburgh with Heath Miller who's one of the best blockers in the league at TE and he doesn't drop anything... This is a tight one... Slight, slight, slight edge: Green Bay

Running Backs - Rashard Mendenhall isn't the most consistent guy in the world... that's the only negative thing I have to say... he was electric against the Jets and is capable of putting up 100 on anybody any week... Moore/Dwyer/Redman are nothing special behind him.... for GB it's a smattering... James Starks has been adequate, Brandon Jackson kind of stinks, and John Kuhn is a fullback who carries the ball... this is the most lopsided so far... Advantage: Pittsburgh

Quarterback - Well here it is... you know the story... Rodgers' numbers are impressive... 3922 yards, 28 TDs, QB rating north of 100, 350+ rushing yards and 4 more scores, and the memory still fresh of his 31/36, 366 yards, 3 TDs demolishing of Atlanta on the road... he's got every skill you'd ever want... the only black mark? He hasn't been here before... on the other end is Ben Roethlisberger... he of Milledgeville and Lake Tahoe fame lol... but we'll leave that out for this purpose... guy has 2 rings and while he was horrendous in the first SB win (9 of 21, 0 TD, 2 INT against Seattle), he played really well in the Arizona super bowl... his numbers aren't as outlandish as Rodgers are, but he has a better TD-INT ratio, similar QB rating (97.0), and he's the teflon man in the backfield... people just bounce off of him... and he's been here before.... For all intensive purposes, it's a coin flip IMO, and that's not a shot at Rodgers... if I had to pick, I'll take him, but Ben is right there... Slightest of advantages: Green Bay

Head Coach - I think Mike Tomlin is the coolest man in America... or at least in the running... but he wins this one more by default than anything else... I'm not a Mike McCarthy fan... I think he's abysmal in game/clock management, he goes into the 4 corners every time they get a lead with the exception of Rodgers turning into Jesus himself against Atlanta, and I just generally don't trust him... plus, if you look at Tomlin, you just feel good about it... done... Advantage: Pittsburgh

I thought about doing an "intangibles" bullet... but really... what does that mean?.... These are 2 storied/stable franchises, so rule out an advantage there.... neither team has done anything (yet) to provoke the other through the media i.e. Shannon Sharpe/Ray Buchanan so rule that out too... We can try to speak to the Roethlisberger dynamic with his newfound "restoration" but we really have no idea... so there it is...

The breakdown above?... 4-4... of course it is....

And now of course... the pick... in the end, this is about as even as the Super Bowl gets and the Vegas line of Green Bay -2.5 indicates that... I've been hearing from all corners all week and the consensus seems to like Green Bay which immediately indicates that I want to go the other way... fade the public!... but I just can't do it... Green Bay is too scary offensively inside, and Pittsburgh has shown they can be thrown on... add in the Pouncey injury (scary against Raji), and I'm not picking against the Aaron Rodgers I saw decimate the Falcons... I can't get the image out of my head... cover your eyes... Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 23