8/31: Manny, Reggie Bush, etc.

Greetings... not a ton to get to today... but College football starts Thursday with real, live games... hallelujah...

• Manny is a member of the White Sox... This is getting bigger news headlines than it should baseball-wise because Manny isn't the player he used to be... but with CWS in the race (sort of) still with Minnesota, he'll get a look... I don't think the impact will be there... his power is greatly diminished, he's an injury risk, and I don't see the push that Kenny Williams sees... not a terrible flyer if you have the money though
• Hey Roger Clemens got indicted and happened to plead not guilty... wait, the trial isn't until at least April 2011? Go away until then...
• Reggie Bush's heisman should... go to Vince Young? That's Mack Brown's take... well, look at it at face value... Brown was Young's coach, and probably has a biased view... alas, I was against them stripping him of the trophy, and I'm very much against giving it to Young... but I don't think the NCAA will anyway... it'll stay vacated
• The Braves won... and Philly lost... a rare combination lately... Kuroda nearly spun a no-no against Philly, and the Braves bats were alive and well... Heyward is smoking the ball right now, which is a pleasant sight, and Derrek Lee showed some life... Not too much to take away, but 3 games is better than 2 (or 1)... simple as that
• The first Michigan football depth chart is out... and the QB line reads like this.... Denard Robinson OR Devin Gardner OR Tate Forcier... know what that means? They STILL have no idea who's going to play, how much they'll play, or whether Gardner is red-shirting... with him on the 2-deep, I think they burn his redshirt (a mistake IMO), and I think Robinson starts on Saturday at 3:30 in the Big House... but that's all I got....

What to watch for...

• Braves/Mets - 7:00 Peachtree TV - Minor/Niese... I'll be in the building to check out the kid...
  
• 30 for 30 (Little Big Men) - ESPN 8:00 - 30 for 30 is must-see TV... always
• US Open Tennis - 1:00 ESPN - It'll be all over the family of networks for the duration... if you like that sort of thing (cough, James, cough)

Until next time... 103 hours and counting until Uconn comes to the Big House

2010 NFL Preview Part 9: Predictions/Awards

This will wrap up the football previews... I'm beyond fired up about football kicking off (as always)... let's get to it... First? Award predictions...

• Offensive Rookie of the Year - Ryan Mathews, RB San Diego - This is kind of the "consensus"-type pick... but there are certainly reasons why... Undisputed #1 back... doesn't have the durability/playing-time issues that Spiller and Best have... is a giant upgrade talent-wise from the 2009-version of LDT (sorry), and Norv is on record saying he wants him to get 290 touches... it's pretty likely he runs for 1200 yards
• Defensive Rookie of the Year - Brandon Graham, DE Philadelphia - I'm absolutely a homer... but there is legitimate buzz about Graham, and I'm not the only one picking him here... Here are some reasons... the consensus top 2 defensive prospects/picks in the draft (Suh and McCoy) are both D-Tackles... the "flash" and numbers needed to win an ROY don't usually come from DTs... Rolando McClain would be a darkhorse... but I think Graham gets 9-10 sacks and is an impact guy from Day 1...
• Coach of the Year - Mike McCarthy, Green Bay - These are all subjective... but I think they'll win 12-14 games, and he'll get buzz as a top-tier guy
• Comeback Player of the Year - Ronnie Brown, RB Miami - I think he's got another 1400-yard season in him... there's alot of Henne buzz, and alot of talk about Ricky Williams... Brown has been ridiculous (when healthy) the last couple of years... I think he puts it together and stays on the field.... Runner-up? Michael Turner... but I'm not sure he missed enough time in 2009 to garner the attention
• Offensive Player of the Year - Adrian Peterson, RB Minnesota - He went for under 1400 yards last year... he was still a great "fantasy" player because he got in the endzone alot... but there were fumbling issues, and they were winging it more than usual... This year? Favre is dinged up.. the receiving corps is battered... and Peterson has "reportedly" addressed the fumbling issue... put it all together, and I see 350 carries for 1700+ yards and 16-18 TDs...
• Defensive Player of the Year - Patrick Willis, LB San Francisco - Guy is a monster... he had 152 tackles (118 solo) last year... and he's the best LB on Earth... I don't think they'll be a dominant DE performance this year, and D-backs have to make a ton of big plays to get considered... I'll go safe with Willis
• MVP - Tom Brady, QB New England - Call it a hunch... I think Tom Brady is in famous "eff-you" mode this year... no contract extension... tons of talk about Brees/Rodgers/Manning as their own tier of QB's... they'll be winging it all over the place (kind of necessary with the Taylor/Maroney/Morris/Ellis combo), and with Welker looking like he's back, Moss poised for a big year, and new blood at tight-end (pass-catching centric too)... I see 35+ TDs for Brady, and 4500+ yards... Don't forget, Football Outsiders had Brady's 2009 schedule ranked as the hardest in the last 15 years (for anyone!), and he still threw for about 4400 yards and 28 TDs... Runner-up? (Very close I may add) - Mr. Aaron Rodgers... who's been ridiculous and now has an upgraded O-line so he won't lead the league in sacks taken in 2010

Playoff predictions...

NFC

• Byes - Green Bay and New Orleans
• Wild Card Round - Dallas over Minnesota (WC), Atlanta (WC) over Arizona
  
• Divisional Round - Green Bay over Atlanta, Dallas over NO
• NFC Title Game - Green Bay over Dallas

AFC

• Byes - New England and Indy
• Wild Card Round - Houston (WC) over Baltimore, Pittsburgh (WC) over San Diego
• Divisional Round - New England over Houston, Indy over Pittsburgh
• NFC Title Game - New England over Indy

Super Bowl

• Green Bay over New England, 31-27

And there it is... Packers/Pats super bowl... Rodgers vs. Brady instead of Favre vs. Bledsoe this time.. but that'd be fun... as always, this will now NEVER happen because I've picked it... time to enjoy football at its finest...

2010 NFL Preview Part 8: NFC East

Toughest division for last... yay.... First time (in my memory at least) that everyone in a division would be over .500.... but that's what I see...

1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5) - I've wrestled with Dallas... but here it is... Tony Romo is good... they have 2 above-average RB's (even if I'm terrified of Felix Jones in fantasy), Miles Austin is elite, either Dez Bryant or Roy Williams (or both) should be okay, Jason Witten is still good... that's pretty crazy talent... the O-line? Not awesome by any stretch, but they've rid themselves of Flozell Adams' corpse, and they should be able to pass-block better in 2010.. the secondary is still the concern for me (safety mostly) but DeMarcus Ware covers up for alot of sins, and that 3-man D-line is very, very talented behind Jay Ratliff... Wade Phillips is pretty bad... but they have the best roster
   
2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) - I like Kevin Kolb... now, hear me out... we have no idea what Kevin Kolb will be... just know that... but the guy has accuracy (65%+ everywhere he's ever been), and they've seen enough to ship Donovan out... I'm down on McCoy but Andy is winging it anyway, and I like Mike Bell and Leonard Weaver alot... Maclin is due for a breakout, and even if (IMO when) Desean Jackson takes a step back with defenses keying on the long-ball... they have a plethora of options including upper-echelon tight end Brent Celek, and Jason "I don't drop the ball... ever" Avant... the biggest reason I like Philly? the defense... my defensive ROY pick (Brandon Graham, yes I'm a homer, but yes I'm serious), Ernie Sims, Asante Samuel, Trent Cole... I like them....
   
3. New York Giants (9-7) - I have no idea what to make of the Giants... Eli was good last year... 4000+ yards, and they put alot on his plate... the Bradshaw/Jacobs combo is decent enough (especially when they figure out that Bradshaw is the better player), and they have a nice trio of young WRs in Smith/Manningham/Nicks... the defense was the travesty last year... there was a buzz of "number 1 defense" hype on them before 2009 and they fell flat... they were somehow the 3rd WORST defense in the L last year in PPG allowed... that's insane... I expect a rebound now with alleviated health concerns, and talented guys like Tuck, Canty, Bulluck, and new signee Antrel Rolle... They'll be better
   
4. Washington Redskins (9-7) - Somebody had to be in the cellar... I love, love, love the Donovan signing... but he needs O-line help (should be slightly better with Jammal Brown and Trent Williams), and the weapons are suspect... I believe Portis could be decent this year... but the Parker/Johnson signings make me laugh... and there's not a #2 wideout opposite Moss... the defense was quietly decent last year... and that should continue... they have very good secondary play, and young talent in the front 7... with any skill guys at all? They'd be in the discussion to win this thing...
   

8/25: Tiger, Rondo, Rice, etc.

Aloha... it means hello... and goodbye...

• Tiger Woods got divorced... Elin reportedly said she "went through hell"... and do you know how much of that matters to me? None of it... except what happens on the golf course... do I think as a parent you want to be saying, "Hey son, this is the guy you want to be like"? No... but I don't endorse athletes as role models of LIVES anyway... point out techniques that you see them doing... professionalism in how they go about their on-field business... but if you don't know them personally, don't endorse their off-field lives...
• Rajon Rondo withdraws/gets cut from USA Hoops... conflicting reports on what actually happened here... but the fact is, Rondo got a DNP-CD in the last game, and suddenly went away... alas, it solves the PG conundrum (a little bit) as they are down to "only" 4... I'm on record as liking Rondo more than Westbrook (and even Rose) for this type of team simply because Rondo plays lock-down D AND doesn't feel the need to jack jumpers.... alas, this is the same team trotting out a Rose/Billups backcourt (painful to watch) and Andre Iguodala at the 4... I'm going to be maddened...
• Sidney Rice is out for the Vikes... he'll reportedly miss at least 1/2 the season after hip surgery... kind of a big blow for Minny... especially with Harvin's migraine question mark...
  
• Roy Oswalt played left field for the Phillies last night... and they lost in 16 innings... I thought it was at the least, amusing...
  
• Derek Lowe was average again last night... 6 innings, 3 ER... it's kind of what he is... that's an eminently winnable line... especially at Coors Field... it's semi-hilarious how many consecutive days the Braves & Phillies have been in lock-step... the last time that both teams played and had different results? How about August 10th... 2 weeks!

What to watch for...

• USA/Greece Basketball - Noon ESPN - Maybe someone will convince Coach K that it's a bad idea to have semi-washed-up PG Chauncey Billups start at the 2 and "terrible FIBA fit/overrated" wing Andre Iguodala starting at the 4.... no? Oh...
  
• Braves/Rockies - 3:00 SportSouth - Jurrjens/Rogers... To avoid the sweep... Jurrjens' road numbers are ugly though (6.00 ERA on road, 1.81 at home)
• Twins/Rangers - 8:00 ESPN - Duensing/Wilson... 2 division leaders...

Seize the day...

2010 NFL Preview Part 7: NFC North

Coming down the stretch here... this was a tough one...

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3) - Set everywhere at the skill spots... Rodgers/Grant/Jennings/Driver/Finley is pretty monstrous... the O-line has reportedly looked much improved, and even if they are adequate (Rodgers got battered last year, making his numbers even that much crazier), that'll be an upgrade... the defense has talent abounding... Raji is a space-eater at NT, Charles Woodson was fantastic last year, and the linebacking corps is very good with Hawk, Barnett and Matthews... Mason Crosby is an elite kicker, and I really like Mike McCarthy's work... I know everyone is picking Minnesota, and I can see it... but I was all-in on GB last year, and even moreso in 2010... Aaron Rodgers to the rescue...
2. Minnesota Vikings (11-5) - I know there is talent EVERYWHERE here... but there are also questions everywhere... count me skeptical (to say the least) that Favre can come anywhere close to replicating that crazy TD/INT ratio from 2009 (really, 7 INT only? Come on) AND he needs to stay healthy at 40+ years old with a recently repaired ankle... Peterson is an animal and I'm not worried about him... but WR is in turmoil... Sidney Rice is missing significant time after hip surgery, Percy Harvin is a giant question mark with the migraine issue (scary stuff), and Bernard Berrian is never healthy for 16 games... I love that O-line and Shiancoe is coming on nicely, but there are big-time issues... on defense? Stacked again... the D-line featuring Jared Allen (beast) and the Williams' brothers (who aren't brothers) at the tackle spot is scary... the secondary is pretty darn solid as well, and I like the Henderson/Greenway combo at LB... the difference between GB and Minny (other than ? marks) is Brad Childress... he's a trainwreck... I can't emphasize that enough....
3. Chicago Bears (8-8) - This is an impossible team to forecast... they were pretty awful on offense a year ago... Cutler threw 26 INT's, Matt Forte had a sophomore slump, and the receiving corps lacked a big-time threat... They've brought in Mike Martz, and Chester Taylor to mentor Cutler, and spell Forte respectively... I like both moves... Cutler will get hit more in this system, but he's got better, more experienced WR's this year (love Aromashodu and Knox).... Like the offense... just not enough... the Peppers acquisition is big IF he's healthy/productive... and he'll be a question mark for me until he proves he's trying... Urlacher is healthy and that's huge, but this defense has some holes... the rest of the d-line is injury-prone or unproductive, and the secondary is spotty (although I like D. Manning)... They'll compete... but not on the same level as the top 2
4. Detroit Lions (6-10) - You think 6-10 and you think "bleh"... but coming back from 2-14? That's a big step... Stafford/Best/Johnson/Burleson/Pettigrew is a pretty nice skill position core IMO...very, very young and injury prone with Best/Burleson and even Calvin to an extent... the defense is the worry... Suh and Vanden Bosch are nice on the DL... and I like Delmas at safety, but the talent-level still isn't there across the board... much, much improved from 2009 though...
   

2010 NFL Preview Part 6: NFC South

Ah... this should be fun...

1. New Orleans Saints (12-4) - The first-ever back-to-back champion in the history of the NFC South? I say yes... The gang is back on offense... Brees is an unquestioned top-3 QB, I really like Pierre Thomas, and the receivers are 100% healthy and talented... and while no one talks about him, they may have the best O-lineman in the league in G Jahri Evans... on defense, they made an absurd amount of big plays last year (mostly by 100-year-old safety Darren Sharper) and while that will come back to Earth most likely, you'll see a progression to dominance from DT Sedrick Ellis, and an emergence of cornerback depth with rookie CB Patrick Robinson... there is tons of talent, an upper-level head coach, and a supremely gifted QB... division champs...
2. Atlanta Falcons (11-5) - I've wrestled with the record... but I'm encouraged overall... I could 5,000 words on the Falcons but I'll dial it down for this... Matt Ryan is better than he was in 2009... I'm convinced of that... how much better? I have no idea... but he's healthy, Michael Turner is healthy and ready to return to 1500 yard form, and they have a legit duo of receiving threats in White and Gonzalez... on defense, they were porous at best last year... there will be a step forward on the basis of newly acquired CB Dunta Robinson, as well as 1st-rounder Sean Weatherspoon, and 2009 1st-rounder Peria Jerry (now healthy)... the kicker spot killed them last year (lost at least 2 games because of it) and it's still unsettled with Matt Bryant, but he's been handed the job as of this post, and he won't be worse than Elam was last year... I see a split with the Saints, and a wild card spot
3. Carolina Panthers (6-10) - Count me in on the Panthers demise... Matt Moore isn't good... in a small sample size, he was okay in 2009... but that's really only in comparison to Jake Delhomme... and the other option is Jimmy Clausen? hahaha.... That's my response... the running back tandem is the best in the league with Deangelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart... and Steve Smith is still Steve Smith, but they have NOTHING opposite him (Dwayne Jarrett? Really?)... on defense, Jon Beason is a man among men... but there are big question marks on the D-line, and mostly average play in the secondary (always liked Chris Gamble though, except for the Ohio State thing)... in the end, I don't see how you can win more than 6-7 games with a wretched quarterback, exactly one wide-out and an average-at-best defense...
4. Tampa Bay Bucs (3-13) - Back-to-back 3 and 13's... yikes... Josh Freeman may be their QB of the future (I'm skeptical of that, but alas) but even he is out right now... their RB rotation is uninspiring (Ward/Cadillac/Graham, bleh), and the receivers are painfully young... their best offensive player is probably Kellen Winslow Jr. at tight end... it's ugly... There some legit young talent on defense led by Gerald McCoy, Barrett Ruud, and Aqib Talib... but not enough depth/consistency to be an above-average unit... I don't think they score... and that's how you end up with 3 wins...
   

8/23: Piniella, USA Hoops, Braves, etc.

Greetings all... Just a reminder that you can check out my full 9-part College Football Preview below, as well as the first 5 parts of my 9-part NFL preview... 4 more to come in that realm... let's get to it

• Lou Piniella retires... It's hard for me to weigh this one... he has a sick mother... done and done right? My only question is... if the Cubs were winning the division right now... would he walk? And IMO, absolutely not... so the waxing poetic can slow down a little... on the hall-of-fame question? He was an above-average player, and he's been an above-average manager (only slightly over .500 career record, but was dealt an absurdly bad hand in Tampa Bay to lower that number)... do we combine the two in gauging HOF status? I say no... yes, he's got a ring as a manager (1990 Reds) but you need more than longevity and one ring IMO...
• On the heels of an ugly/violent incident, Nenad Krstic (of NBA center fame) fears a full FIBA ban for his actions... if you haven't seen it, it's an easy YouTube check-out... but wow was it crazy.. I don't think he'll get the full ban but if they suspended him for the Worlds.. I'd be in...
• The Vikings are signing Javon Walker? It's Green Bay all over again... the difference? Javon Walker hasn't been relevant/good since GB... and that wasn't yesterday...
• USA Basketball ran into Spain yesterday in Madrid... and they got the 1-point win... all is well, huh? I say no... I hate the way this roster was put together... 5 point guards (3 of which can't shoot at all, i.e. Westbrook, Rondo, Rose), no true center outside of slightly washed-up Tyson Chandler, and a wing rotation that includes Andre Iguodala (despise his game for FIBA, he's a trainwreck on offense), and Rudy Gay... and if you've read this blog, you know how I feel about Rudy... yes, they beat Spain by 1 in an exhibition, and yes, they may still be the favorite (ONLY because Pau Gasol is out for Spain), but I don't think they're winning the Worlds... the bright spot? It seems like they know it's Kevin Durant's team.. and it pretty much has to be... and I understand why Kobe/Lebron/Wade/Melo aren't there (they've paid their dues, carried us in 2008, etc.), but I'll echo Simmons/Whitlock/etc. sentiment when I question where Howard and Bosh are... it makes no sense...
• Vin Scully keeps on ticking... back for his 62nd season as the Dodgers voice in 2011... the best of all-time... regardless of your attachment to various "hometown" guys... it's really not an argument
• Last thing before I get to the TV guide... my yearly rant on the Little League World Series... this shouldn't be on TV... it definitely shouldn't be prominently featured on ESPN (the mothership) or ABC... and these kids get pressure they should never have to feel at 12 years old... done and done

What to watch for...

• NFL Preseason (Cards @ Titans) - ESPN 9:00 PM... if you like meaningless football...
• Braves/Rockies (8:30 SportSouth) - Hudson/Hammel
• Reds/Giants (10:00 ESPN) - Volquez/Cain

Check back in this space for the rest of my football previews, etc...