Greetings... instead of summoning 800-ish words on Jim Tressel getting whacked/resigning (depending on what you believe), I decided to hit on the NBA finals... you're welcome... let's break it down Dr. Jack style by category (thanks to my friend Ryan for the assistance)
COACHING
- Rick Carlisle vs. Erik Spoelstra... this is an interesting matchup... Carlisle had more playoff experience than the other 3 conference finals participating coaches COMBINED... and that's worth a lot... for what it's worth, I've never been a huge fan of his work dating back to Detroit and Indy, but he's done a pretty remarkable job with this Dallas team... on the other end, Spoelstra has been under the scope since the decision, and while he's been beaten up a bit nationally, I think he's done a legit job... the defense that he's gotten Miami to play (and really, the stars to play) should be commended, and the offense has morphed a bit as the season went along.... Slight Advantage: Dallas
PERIMETER PLAY
- Originally I had this listed as "guard play", but that would ignore the fact that Lebron James is the best facilitator in the series, and he's not a guard, so we went here... Basically it comes down to Lebron, Wade, Chalmers, Bibby vs. Kidd, Terry, Barea.... Clearly the advantage goes to Miami before we even begin, but I wanted to spotlight the Dallas backcourt... if they are going to win this series, they MUST figure out how they're going to guard Lebron and Wade in the 4th quarter... Shawn Marion and Deshawn Stevenson are the 2 real options to guard these guys, but Carlisle CANNOT play those 2 together in the 4th quarter offensively... so does Kidd guard Wade? Terry?... Good luck with that.... that may be the single biggest key to the series... Huge advantage: Miami
TOUGHNESS
- Welcome back Udonis Haslem... I thought Miami was simply the tougher team in the East finals, and that was shocking when considering Chicago's body of work... but Haslem gave them life, I've always respected Wade's toughness and grit (even when he flops and lays around), and Lebron has an edge about him this year.... on Dallas' side, this is always talked about... I don't consider them (or Dirk) "soft", and the infusion of guys like Chandler and Marion help them out, but if this turns into an all-out war? I got Miami... Advantage: Miami
BEST PLAYER IN THE SERIES
- This is an interesting one... the best player on Earth is Lebron James in my opinion... but does that mean he's playing the best right now? Dirk has been out of his mind recently... shooting some of the crazy %'s you'll ever see, and showing an array of offensive moves we haven't seen from a guy that size since Hakeem (except Dirk has 25 foot range)... he's been absolutely unbelievable... The rule has always been that the best player in the series wins the series... so this is an important one... I'm going to go on a limb and give this to Miami because I feel that Lebron is bringing it on both ends here (and they have the 4th quarter trump card of sticking him on Dirk defensively)... SLIGHT Advantage: Miami
REBOUNDING
- This is another key for me... can Joel Anthony continue this torrid pace? Will Tyson Chandler show up for the biggest series of his life?... All questions we need answered... Haslem is the key for Miami... you know you're getting excellent rebounding from Wade/Lebron positionally, and I now trust Anthony to do his job, so it really comes down to whether Bosh and Haslem do the dirty work... for Dallas, Chandler and Haywood should dominate the boards, but I don't necessarily trust them to do so... in the midst of all the Dirk hype, his rebounding numbers have faded a bit, and I don't know where else they go (other than Kidd) for rebounding.... this is a battle of haplessness to a point... Slight advantage: Dallas (thanks J-Kidd)
- Well, Dallas... this is what you have to do... they've shot the ball lights out at times (see: Lakers, L.A.) and that's the great x-factor... Peja, Terry, Kidd, Dirk are 4 of the top 40 most prolific 3-point shooters in the history of the league... on one team!.... Jet Terry has to make shots for Dallas to have a chance in this series, and anything they get out of Peja is gravy... on Miami's end, it's more a case of getting GOOD 3-point looks... Lebron and Wade aren't 3 point shooters but they TAKE them when they get passive (especially Lebron)... the fewer the better for those guys... but guys like James Jones and Mike Miller really ONLY bring value when they are making triples... Advantage: Dallas
- I went back and forth on including this category, but I had to.... who do I trust on these teams?... Arbitrary I know, but when it gets down to business, who do I want out there?... Simply put, for Dallas, I trust Dirk, Chandler, Marion, Kidd, and Terry... for Miami, I trust Lebron, Wade, Anthony, Bosh (to a point), and Haslem... call it a draw... but I wanted my thoughts to be out there (I'm looking at you JJ Barea).... Advantage: Push
Okay, that'll do it for the Dr. Jack breakdown... but I wanted to get this out there (courtesy of Ryan).... Are we sure that Miami isn't going to set every free throw shooting record in this series?... Look, I'm not necessarily "conspiracy theory" guy, but with the fact that Wade (and to an extent, Lebron) has done this before in 2006, and they KNOW they're going to get calls, I'm scared that this will turn into a drive-and-hurl-your-body series, and that favors Miami... anyway, on the record... I'm taking Miami in 6... There's little conviction in that pick, but it comes down to the fact that while Miami has limitations roster-wise, I don't think Dallas has the type of team that can accurately abuse them on their issues... it would take a super-human Dirk performance, and with a gun to my head? I can't do it... Enjoy the series, everyone...
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