Thursday, October 6, 2011

Ranking All 32 NFL Quarterbacks

Greetings everyone... I was issued an open challenge (thanks Ryan) to rank the current 32 starting quarterbacks...

One note: For ease purposes, I'm leaving Peyton Manning off and ranking Painter as if he's the starter... in case you were wondering, assuming Peyton comes back healthy (and is "Peyton" again), I'd have him #3 behind Brady and Rodgers...

I'm openly ripping off hundreds of columnists by going with the tier system, but I don't care.. Let's get it going...

TIER 1 - The Best of the Best

1) Tom Brady - New England
2) Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay

Okay, so this is one of the main arguments I've been hearing in preparation for this blog entry... I'm going with Brady because 1) He has 3 rings, 2) He doesn't have nearly the weapons Rodgers has, 3) Longevity in the elite class, and 4) I'm an unabashed Brady homer.... is that enough for you? On the Rodgers side, he's currently walking around with the title belt (both literally and figuratively), and he's been out-of-this world, so he's a lock at #2 for me...

TIER 2 - Still Elite

3) Drew Brees - New Orleans
4) Philip Rivers - San Diego
5) Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh

Getting a little trickier now, huh?...

Brees was my easiest choice of the 3 at #3 because he has comparable (if not better) numbers than Rivers AND has the ring, while versus Big Ben, the numbers aren't particularly close, and he won his ring without the benefit of the best defense in the league... Career QB rating of 92.1 and he's thrown for 4400+ yards and 26+ TDs in every season with New Orleans... stud...

I almost made Rivers his own tier... let's start with the numbers... 96.6 QB rating (insane), and over 100 in the last 3 consecutive years... if it was all numbers? He'd be up there with the top 3... but he's never won anything... like, anything... and I think he needs to be penalized a bit for some of these stinker seasons the Chargers have had (8-8 last year, really?)... but while we're here, props to him for playing an entire playoff game on a torn (yes, torn) ACL...

Roethlisberger is an enigma in his own right (see the next tier), but with 2 rings, he has to be above the next class... spare me the diatribe about how great his defense was or how bad a guy he is, because I get it... but he's got a career 92 QB rating, he literally can't be tackled, and he's been playing behind a joke of an offensive line for multiple years now... I'm planting my flag on Roethlisberger (the player and the resume) over Roethlisberger (the guy)....

TIER 3 - The Enigmas

6) Michael Vick - Philly
7) Tony Romo - Dallas

These
two are a mess...

What do you say about Mike Vick that hasn't already been said?... Most electrifying athlete to ever play the position... one of the strongest arms in the league (if not THE strongest), and he's clearly come into his own as a pocket passer... BUT... he played 12 games last year (only about 8 of them at an elite level), and we're supposed to anoint him once again?... I've learned my lesson as a Falcons fan... I harbor no ill will toward Mike, but at the same time, I feel like he's never shown enough to be a "top 5" QB... I could write 1000 words on this, but there you go...

On the other side, I feel like Tony Romo gets crapped on TOO much... he's made some bone-headed plays in big spots, but his "biggest" blunder came as a HOLDER in the playoffs... that has nothing to do with his QB play... the guy has never had a QB rating lower than 90 in a season, he plays with overrated talent, and he's never had even a top-15 running back (with apologies to Julius Jones and the like)... he's a product of the Cowboy news cycle (which, on another note, is nearing the Yankees/Sox absurdity level), but if the Ravens or Jets had Tony Romo?... Super Bowl...

TIER 4 - On the Cusp

8) Matt Schaub - Houston
9) Josh Freeman - Tampa
10) Matt Ryan - Atlanta
11) Eli Manning - New York Giants

This is absolutely the toughest group to rank for me... 2 very young guys (Ryan and Freeman), one "great stats, never won anything" guy in Schaub, and one "I have a ring and nobody thinks I'm good" guy in Eli...

I'm going safe... Matt Schaub is the guy no one EVER talks about, but he's got 90 career TDs to just 55 picks... a career 92 QB rating and he's shed the "can't stay healthy" label by playing all 16 games the last 2 years and putting up over 9,000 yards passing combined... he's never had an elite (or even good) defense, and the running game has been a giant mash-up thanks to Gary Kubiak for most of his tenure... I like Schaub...

I've said it before, and I'll say it again... I was wrong about Josh Freeman... I had him pegged for the Jamarcus Russell memorial "bust" award coming out of K-State, and he's absolutely proven me wrong... 25 touchdowns and 6 INT in 2010 despite playing with Cadillac Williams, a rookie LeGarrette Blount, Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, and Michael Spurlock.... those were his skill guys! That team won 1o games!.... anyway, I'm really high on Freeman...

Matt Ryan is obviously tough to evaluate from an "insider" point of view... I've seen the great majority of his snaps in the NFL, and I can't say that about any other QB on this list (except maybe Vick)... he gets credit for never having a losing season and making the playoffs while playing all 16 games as a rookie... and he gets big time credit for his 28 TD/9 INT season in 2010... but he's also had the benefit of an exceptional (2008) and good (2009 and 2010) running game, and ever-increasing weapons... in his defense? Never a near-elite defense, and some serious limitations in the aggressiveness of the play-calling (to put it lightly)... I'm a Matt Ryan guy... and I went back and forth with him and Freeman for probably an hour...

And then there's Eli... NOBODY gives Eli any love, and there are reasons for it... wayyyy too many interceptions (115 career, and 25 in 2010), some bad clutch moments, and a career QB rating of just 81... but you absolutely cannot discount the 4 game playoff run and the resulting Super Bowl victory... when he takes care of the ball, he's unquestionably a top 8-10 guy, and even with the discount, I couldn't take him lower than here...

TIER 5 - Too Early

12) Matthew Stafford - Detroit

I know he's been great this year (11 Td, 3 INT, 100+ QB rating)... and I know he has the #1 overall pick pedigree and arm... but the guy has played 17 games TOTAL in 2.5 seasons, and I think #12 is generous... the upside is insane though....

TIER 6 - Youth & Inexperience

13) Joe Flacco - Baltimore
14) Ryan Fitzpatrick - Buffalo
15) Cam Newton - Carolina

Yeah... This is hard...

I kind of like Flacco... but I can't think of a single instance in which I felt great about watching him?... He ended up with 3600 yards each of the last 2 years with 46 TDs and 22 INT combined... pretty solid numbers, but on a team with that defense, I always think he's the weakest link by default...


I'm planting another flag... this time on Ryan Fitzpatrick... you probably thought I was patently insane when you saw the "14" next to his name and you might be right... but Fitzpatrick has claimed the job in Buffalo and run with it... he has a QB rating near 90 since the start of last year (96 through 4 games this year), and while his only limitation is arm strength, we've seen guys get by without it before with smarts... and the guy went to Harvard...


And then there's Cam Newton... I admittedly have no idea where to put him... did I think he'd be a good NFL quarterback? no... do I think he's THIS good of a passer? no... but you can't deny his uncanny ability to make plays, his athleticism, and it does mean something to me that he's won everywhere he's been... I see a lot of Roethlisberger in him, and he's an even better athlete... imagine what he'd do with more than one receiving target...


Tier 7 - The Wily Vet

16) Matt Hasselbeck - Tennessee

I struggled with Hasselbeck.... I've always had a soft spot for him, and he's been very, very good so far in 2011 (8 TD, 3 INT, 105 rating)... but the back injury isn't going away, and that makes him a constant injury risk... I trust him more than some of the guys ahead of him in a one-game scenario, but I don't think he can be evaluated evenly with them because of the injury concerns... That said, if he continues this WITHOUT Kenny Britt?... Goodness...

Tier 9 - The Young Guys

17) Sam Bradford - St. Louis
18) Colt McCoy - Cleveland


I thought Bradford would be better than this... sub 50% completion percentage and only 3 TDs so far in 2011, and while he's only thrown 1 INT, the explosiveness I expected to see from him in leading that offense hasn't been there... that said, there's clearly elite talent/pedigree (#1 pick) and he has NO receivers (worst in the league to be honest)... the jury is out a bit, but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt from what I saw in 2010...

Colt McCoy isn't somebody I thought would be a great pro... and I still don't... but I think he's a capable NFL starter for a long time... he's been hit-or-miss in 2011, but they've put him in an impossible position in attempting the 2nd most passes in the LEAGUE so far (172 in 4 games), and with no proven receiver of any kind, that's a tall order... he makes things happen with his legs, and has a winning pedigree though...

Tier 8 - Not bad enough to be called "bad"

19) Jay Cutler - Chicago
20) Kyle Orton - Denver
21) Jason Campbell - Oakland

This seemed kind of low for Cutler, but I mean it... outside of the 4,500 yard season he had in Denver in 2008, he's hovered around 3,500 in pass-first offenses with too many INTs (83 INT to 109 TDs... not great)... he's got an absolute rifle, but there are make-up issues with him... I wasn't on the bandwagon of killing him for not playing in the 2010 playoffs with the injury, but it showed the perception of him around the league that PLAYERS were openly calling him out... this isn't a great guy to deal with... and he's never won anything...

Kyle Orton... Cutler's replacement in Denver, and this is a guy who the narrative keeps shifting on... in Chicago, it was "man, he's terrible!", and in Denver, it shifted to, "man, he's underrated!"... with it now settling in the middle... as it should... he's thrown for 3500+ yards the last 2 seasons, and he's not going to get you beat by himself, but there's a clear ceiling to his talent, and he needs weapons... all that said, he's got a career QB rating around 80, and he's the last quarterback on this list that I don't feel terrible about...

Tier 9 - I have no idea

22) Kevin Kolb - Arizona
23) Mark Sanchez - NYJ
24) Donovan McNabb - Minnesota
25) Andy Dalton - Cincinnati (too high)

The tier name says it all...

Kevin Kolb is good. Kevin Kolb is bad. Kevin Kolb is average. It's one of those things... I trust Andy Reid's evaluation enough to know that if he liked Kolb over Vick before last year, that's pretty impressive... that said, he has 18 INT and 16 TD in his career (not good), and he's only played in 23 games in 4 seasons... I have no idea...

Mark Sanchez stinks... I firmly believe that... but can we really TOTALLY discount a guy who quarterbacked a team to the AFC title game in back-to-back years?.... that said, 38 INT to 35 TD in his career with a 71 rating... he kind of stinks...

Donovan isn't Donovan anymore... that seems to be the only thing we can all agree on... some think he's completely done, and some think he was in a terrible position last year with no talent around him in a bad system, and he's still okay... I lean toward the 2nd point... I think he's average at best at this point, but the fact that he's played with Santana Moss, Anthony Armstrong, Percy Harvin, Michael Jenkins, and Bernard Berrian the last 2 years doesn't help...

I really like Andy Dalton... the sample is too small for me to be any higher on him than this, but he hasn't been awful as a rookie with one legit receiver (a rookie) and Cedric Benson as his RB... props for that...


Tier 10 - Aren't you better than this?

26) Matt Cassel - Kansas City

I don't know what it is about Matt Cassel... he was shockingly competent last year (at least early), but was a trainwreck in 2009, and he's been brutal so far this year... I just don't trust him at all... and when it's bad... it's BAD.... maybe I'm swayed because him and Todd Haley were just yelling at each other...

Tier 11 - You are what you are

27) Rex Grossman - Washington
28) Tarvaris Jackson - Seattle
29) Alex Smith - San Francisco

This is the most fun one for me...

Rex!... I actually (while writing this) am thinking this is too low... but he's done enough to deserve it over the years... career 71 QB rating, 46 TD, 45 INT... and yes, he took a team to the Super Bowl, but that was with a top-10 all-time defense statistically, and he literally shot them out of the game when they got there... I do think he's not an absolute trainwreck at times, and he has skills, but he is who he is...

I'm a T-Jax defender... I've been going back and forth with Seahawks fan Ryan about him since the pre-season... but let me say this, I know he isn't a good NFL quarterback... that's not my point... the fact that the very mention of his name induces laughter in sports circles is kind of off-base... he has a career QB rating of 77 (not good, not putrid)... more TDs than INT for his career, and he is over .500 as a starter in the NFL... over .500!... so when he ran up and down the field against Atlanta (jeez) in week 4, we saw what he COULD be... but, again, he is who he is...

And I'm on the island here... Alex Smith is putrid... there, I said it... I don't care that San Fran is 3-1 this year... I don't... the ONLY reason he's still an NFL starter is because he was the #1 overall pick, and that was an epic mistake... 54 INTs and 30 fumbles in just 50 career starts... and a win-loss of 19-31 in those 50... he stinks... remember this when you're hearing the "Is Alex Smith good!?!?!" discussions in Week 7 and he throws 5 INTs the following day
....

Tier 13 - Young, but with Hope

30) Blaine Gabbert - Jacksonville

It's wayyy too early to evaluate Blaine Gabbert... he was pretty brutal in Week 3, but what did you expect? I'm putting him here because I can't possibly put a guy with his talent level below the last 2 guys... but in the time we have, let me say this... WHY IS DAVID GARRARD UNEMPLOYED!?!?! I'm not a Garrard guy even.. but he's a top-25 QB on the planet without a doubt, we can't get him a job somewhere? why am I yelling?!...

Tier 14 - Better "Luck" Next Year

31) Curtis Painter - Indy
32) Matt Moore - Miami

Painter is a big upgrade over Kerry Collins because a) Kerry Collins is totally washed up, and b) Curtis Painter at least knows the offense... but there's also a REASON that the Colts brought in a 40-year-old off the street... Painter stinks...

Matt Moore... takes over for Chad Henne this week because of injury... he was a trainwreck in Carolina, and he'll be a trainwreck in Miami...


And... there you have it... feel free to disagree... post in the comments and tell a friend...


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