- Homecourt Advantage - LA
- Season Series - Orlando wins 2-0 (both with Jameer Nelson)
To the matchups (I went with the Points/Wings/Posts because of guys like Odom and Pietrus that play 30+ minutes but don't start AND Nelson's injury)
- Point Guards - Derek Fisher/Jordan Farmar/Shannon Brown vs. Rafer Alston/Jameer Nelson/Anthony Johnson.... First of all, Jameer Nelson isn't going to be referred to here as the starter... this is the single biggest question mark of the entire series, how much can he give them? He can't possibly be in top-shape enough to play more than 20 or so minutes, he's not going to trust himself fully, and the team has settled in without him....for that purpose...I'm leaving Skip in there.... To the matchup... Derek Fisher is basically a corpse of himself at this point....he's still gritty...he can still run a team...but he can't score, he can't defend more than at an average level at this point, and he's been missing the wide-open 3's he was once money on (23% in the playoffs, and under 40% FG), Farmar is a guy with shaky confidence that has been mostly buried....and Shannon Brown has been the brightspot for them (defending, making big shots, and being generally athletic) but he's not a true point and is in uncharted territory for him... Rafer Alston was HUGE at the end of the Cleveland series... I still don't fully trust him in a big moment, he's a hot-cold shooter, and has never been here before... Jameer Nelson was playing at an all-star level prior to the injury and if he's 80% he's the best PG in this series...he won't be 80% IMO, but even 60% of him is better than.....Anthony Johnson who I fully and completely do NOT trust after seeing him play for 2 years in Atlanta...Edge: Even (Goes to Orlando if Nelson is even 80%)
- Shooting Guards - Kobe Bryant/Sasha Vujacic vs. Courtney Lee/Mikael Pietrus .... You can stop laughing now... Kobe is the 2nd best player on the planet and the best closer/clutch-player in all the land... he'll average 30+ in this series... you know this...Vujacic is shooting 28% in the playoffs...28! It's his only discernable skill and he's the worst rotation guy in this series not named Anthony Johnson... Courtney Lee...you don't know as much about but I'll tell you... he's a very, very good defender, he has a knack for coming up big in big moments, and he's a great FT shooter (90% in the playoffs)... he'll compete on Kobe, throw some things at him....Mikael Pietrus was exceptional in the Cleveland series...he played the best defense on Lebron thus far in the playoffs, he's made big shots (especially that corner 3 that he loves) and can be counted on in crunchtime... but in the end... GIGANTIC, HUGE, MONSTROUS edge: Lakers
- Forwards - Trevor Ariza/Lamar Odom/Luke Walton vs. Rashard Lewis/Hedo Turkoglu/Pietrus... Ariza is a very good role player...he defends, is an exceptional athlete, and is shooting the ball very well right now (55% FG, 50% 3-pt FG in the playoffs, albeit on wide-open jumpers), Odom is the same enigma he's always been...he's capable of the 19 and 14 games, he's capable of a 1-10 FG, 5 point game... but the big thing is that he matches up very well defensively against the 6'10 shooting forwards for Orlando b/c he can throw length at them from the 4 spot that Cleveland couldn't... Walton is up-and-down but is heady...he needs to make shots to stay on the floor however.... for Orlando? First of all, you need to factor Pietrus in a little here b/c he plays alot at the 3 spot... but Lewis and Turkoglu present the most incredible matchup problems for MOST teams...but I don't see for LA b/c of the length/athleticism of Ariza/Odom but that being said.. Lewis has been virtually unstoppable offensively in the playoffs...and Turkoglu is still waiting to put up a 27 point, 9 board, 11 dime game, but at the same time Hedo is a terrible defender and can and should be exposed as such... Edge: Orlando
- Post Players - Pau Gasol/Andrew Bynum vs. Dwight Howard/Marcin Gortat.... This is the pivotal point of this series ON the floor in my mind (Nelson's injury not withstanding)... Pau Gasol absolutely DISAPPEARED in last year's finals... he's averaging 18 and 11 in this series and needs to be a near 20/10 guy in this series for the Lakers to maintain their favorite status... Bynum is an enigma at times...but mostly b/c Phil refuses to play him steady minutes...his CHIEF role in this series is to keep Dwight off the block and the glass when he's in the game....any 12 and 8 games from him are gravy... You know Dwight Howard... he's going to give them 24 and 12 nightly...but I don't think at this stage he can score 30-35 a night on capable athletes in the post (sorry Big Z and Ben Wallace)...he'll need to be super-human, and he's capable, but I don't see it....Edge: Orlando (not as big as you may think)
- Coaching - Phil Jackson vs. Stan Van Gundy.... Gigantic mismatch here...9 rings for Phil... Van Gundy has made some quality adjustments at times in the series (finally burying JJ Redick, playing Pietrus 35 minutes a night, etc.) but is absolutely overwhelmed here... I can see Phil taking away one of the forwards for the duration of the series, making Dwight make FT's and keeping him out of the 6-7 dunks a game he's been getting... and get Kobe into enough matchups with Hedo or Lewis that he has a big edge... Big Edge: Lakers
For the record, I'm including the experience advantages (namely Kobe and Fisher) in these matchups, the homecourt in LA and Orlando is sizable at this point as well... And here we are at the pick....
LA in 7... Too much Kobe (I say he averages 36 ppg in this series and cements the legacy fully), enough contain on Dwight Howard, a less-than-healthy Jameer Nelson, and Phil Jackson will thoroughly dominate Stan Van Gundy when it matters....Here's to a great series however (and here's to hoping the Refs don't kill this thing with 80 Free throws a night), I can't wait! The NBA is FANNN-TASTIC! I LOVE THIS GAME!
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