- Baltimore @ Pittsburgh - Saturday 4:30 NBC - The dream matchup if you like hard-hitting football... these 2 teams legitimately don't like each other, and it usually shows... Baltimore's defense is a bit overrated these days (especially in pass D where they rank 21st in yards allowed), but they still pressure the quarterback, and Pittsburgh's O-line is among the worst in the league (really, their only weakness)... for Pittsburgh, Polamalu seems to be ready to go and that's huge for them as that defense takes on a whole different mindset when he's out there.... I like Pittsburgh close here... I trust Ben more than Flacco, and I think Pittsburgh has the better defense... One way Baltimore can steal this one is to get Ray Rice going though, as teams continually fail to establish the ground game against PIT, but Rice is shifty and if they can get him in space it'll help....
- Green Bay @ Atlanta - Saturday 8:00 NBC - The Dome will be rocking... that much is for certain... let's get this out of the way... I'm not at all scared of James Starks... his 100+ yard outburst last week was a result of horrendous tackling by Philly (a bad run D), and if he goes north of 60 yards this week, I'll be surprised... that said, Aaron Rodgers is playing fantastic football, and Atlanta must bottle up the ground game in order to attempt to slow Rodgers... one-dimensional is a good thing to see for a defense, even if it's a very good dimension.... for Atlanta, I think Michael Turner is the key... he had a good/productive game last time against GB, but the Packers defense is very stingy... the Falcons offensive dynamic is entirely based on how productive Turner is because well, Mike Mularkey is going to hand him the ball whether he has it going or not.... I like Matt Ryan at home, but anyone that says they know what he'll look like here is lying... he's got 1 playoff game under his belt (yes, I know Arizona had the snap count) and he wasn't fantastic that day... Gun to my head? I like the Falcons at home, but this is the most evenly matched game of the weekend IMO...
- Seattle @ Chicago - Sunday 1:00 FOX - What a weird matchup... I'm always too high on Seattle, and I've been too tough on Chicago... The Seahawk "weapons" are being vastly overrated this week... Marshawn Lynch was great on the run at the end of the NO game, but he's been a dissapointment for the most part in Seattle, and the receiving corps is still below average... Hasselbeck does have some playoff success on his resume, so there's a little trust there, but he'll have to show everyone again... for Chicago, I think it comes down to Mike Martz... Cutler has been so much more effective when Martz has gotten him out of the 7-step drops/deep balls that he's obsessed with, and let him make quick decisions in 3 and 5 step drops to deliver the ball to their undersized receivers (led by Knox)... if Chicago doesn't abandon the run and the quick passing game, I like their chances alot... they have, by far, the better defense, and they are playing at home... a lot has been made of Seattle going in there and winning in Week 6, but that was 3 months ago, and I'm not sure how much bearing it'll have... give me the Bears....
- NY Jets @ New England - Sunday 4:15 CBS - 45-3 last time... that's what you'll get buried with in the media this week, and I'm not going to tell you differently... it happened... it's out there... I think NE is flat-out better... they have the best QB alive, they have the better head coach, and they have homefield... but most of all? Mark Sanchez is on the road, and I can't possibly pick him against Tom Brady with how he's looked recently... I think NYJ will actually show up and not get blown out completely here, but look for Brady to be workmanlike in a 27-30 point effort... Love the Pats...
THE PICKS! (57-44-3 after the Oregon/Auburn push)... I'm picking every game this week... just because I feel led...
- Pittsburgh -3... I don't trust Flacco... still....
- Seattle +10... They make it close enough, and there's always the possibility of Cutler throwing the ball to the other jersey...
- Atlanta -2.5
- NE -8.5.... I'm thinking 31-20...
Enjoy!
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