- 15. Sacramento (15-67) - Well...in a word...yikes... Positives first... I like the young frontcourt of Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes quite a bit, and I enjoy the skill-set of Kevin Martin.... but Martin is one-dimensional, Thompson is still quite raw, and Hawes has limited upside... and that doesn't comment on the biggest issues...SF Francisco Garcia is gone for the year, and since he doubles as their best wing defender...that's an issue....the Point is a mess with Beno Udrih's stealing of funds, and Tyreke Evans' lack of experience, and the fact that, oh, he isn't a point guard... It doesn't end well in Sacto....
- 14. Memphis (19-63) - On paper? Talent-laden squad here.... Conley, Mayo, Iverson, Gay, Gasol, Randolph, Thabeet....I've seen worse talent...it's the mix that I question... I HATED the Iverson signing for the Grizz....this isn't a team that can win now, and this strikes me as a straight ticket/cash grab...he'll do nothing to aid the growth of Mike Conley at the point, and I can't envision a backcourt that features Iverson/Conley OR Iverson/Mayo (and those both have to happen) simply b/c of the defensive limitations of the first combo, and the ball-sharing of an Iverson/Mayo combo.... add in Zach Randolph's me-me-me persona and lack of D, a lottery pick in Thabeet with no discernable offensive talent...and a mess ensues....
- 13. Golden State (23-59) - First of all, this is not a talent issue....stacked everywhere here...but the blend is hilarious/questionable...how many swingmen does one team need? They are trying to set the record...Nellie is certifiable...Cap'n Jack is suspended... there's no true point guard...I don't believe in the Ellis/Curry combo playing together... and Anthony Randolph hasn't proved anything yet (Yes, I like his upside just like everyone else)....there could be glimpses, and with a different coach, I'd add 10 wins at least here...but Nellie can't handle this talent distribution....
- 12. Minnesota (24-58) - This would be better without the injuries... Love is out 6-8 weeks (and I'm a HUGE fan of his if you didn't know...unmeasurable loss)....Jefferson still isn't 100% coming off last year...Ricky Rubio isn't walking through that door, and there isn't a single desirable swingman on this team from an offensive standpoint... I like what Jonny Flynn could bring at the point, and when Love and Jefferson are healthy, that's an elite 4/5 combo... but unless Ramon Sessions proves the world wrong that says he's an all-world fantasy player with no substance, Wayne Ellington exceeds every possible explanation or Corey Brewer finds offense... it'll be a struggle for the first 2 months...enough to bury them....
- 11. Houston (33-49) - There's a clear divide between the top 11 and the bottom 4 for me...but Houston is clearly #11... Yao is gone for the year....No one has any idea what Tracy McGrady is at this stage...and that leaves a hodge-podge of talent...Things I like: They really, really defend.....Battier and Scola are 2 of my favorite role players...Ariza is o the rise...and I like Aaron Brooks...Things I dread: Absolutely no semblance of a go-to-guy barring a McGrady rebound to 5 years ago... little to no size (Scola may be starting at the 5), too many role players and no one for them to support.... Just not enough firepower here...
- 10. LA Clippers (36-46) - One of the most talented starting 5's in the L... monsters in the front court in Camby/Kaman/Griffin, and immense matchup-issues for opposing D's in the backcourt when covering Gordon and B-Dizzle...that being said...what are the odds that Kaman/Camby/Baron and even Griffin stay healthy and can play together for 75 games? And with that quality depth in the front court (even DeAndre Jordan as the 4th big)... there's literally none on the wing (Ricky Davis comes to mind) outside of the one-dimensional Rasual Butler (a nice move, btw)...and I don't trust Bassy Telfair on a "winning" squad.... If they have very good health, this is a playoff team...but I don't see it...
- 9. Phoenix (42-40) - Fun 'n Gun is back in Phoenix.... and that's a good thing... Nash is perfect for this offense...J-Rich is healthy and raring to go on the wing...and nobody can put up numbers like Amare in this system... the issues? No true center...which only kills them on defense... Channing Frye as a starter at the 4 isn't cutting it...and a lack of depth on the wing behind Richardson (I don't trust Barbosa at all, and Grant Hill going healthy back-to-back years is questionable to me)....also, nobody behind Nash at the 1 that I trust... just enough issues to keep them out of the playoffs...but it wouldn't shock me if they suddenly were putting up 120 a night and winning 47-49 games....
- 8. Oklahoma City (43-39) - Kevin Durant...Kevin Durant....Kevin Durant.... Simple as this...I took him 2nd in fantasy behind LeBron.... I think he leads the league in scoring...like a 31 ppg, 8 rpg, 5 apg sort of line... This starting 5 is young...and there isn't a guy I don't like...Green is the ideal supporting forward who D's up and makes plays.... James Harden was one of my favorite guys in the draft and can be the supporting shooter/scorer they need...Russell Westbrook is an elite talent who I think makes the leap this year... The issues? Front court depth right now consists of Etan Thomas and Nick Collison...I'll pass on that... and combined with the Kyle Weaver/Shaun Livingston backcourt depth... I can't trust them much farther than the 6-7 with Sefolosha and company.... Like them alot....
- 7. Denver (46-36) - I'm in the minority on this sort of step-back from Denver...but there are reasons... First the positives...Billups is a steady hand...Carmelo has developed into the cut-throat competitor who can put teams away and score at will...I'm VERY high on Nene, and the Birdman is an ideal bench, energy guy.... now... the depth is a serious question mark....here is their bench right now: Anthony Carter, Arron Afflalo, Renaldo Balkman, Malik Allen, Birdman, Ty Lawson.... That's ugly folks..I don't care who's starting... and I still don't believe K-Mart and Nene are both healthy all year... Wouldn't shock me to see them bottom out, and I wouldn't have kept them in the playoffs had Melo not shown the killer streak in the playoffs last year....
- 6. New Orleans (48-34) - Chris Paul is still here...that makes them a threat...he's the best PG in the league and a top 3-4 player in the league overall... I like the Okafor for Chandler trade mostly because Chandler hasn't been the same guy he was 2 years ago, and Emeka is consistent, will defend, and is a heady leader... David West is 20 and 8 every night of the year....now...the positives slow dramatically... On the wing? Peja, Posey, Julian Wright, and Devin Brown....that may be the worst wing combo in the all of the league.... and it's the reason they've kept themselves out of home-court in Round 1... I like the Ike Diogu pick-up on the block and Darren Collison is a guy I'm very high on behind Paul.... but I just can't get over the wing issues....
- 5. Utah (50-32) - Typical story...really bad luck last year with injuries...deep team...all healthy...some of them playing for contracts.... ==== Response.... D-Will is 2nd only to CP3 at the point...Boozer is playing for a contract (meaning I think he goes 20/10 or in the neighborhood), Kirilenko does too many things well...I actually enjoy the Ronnie Brewer/Kyle Korver wing combo....Okur plays well off Williams....I like this team... There are a couple question marks... I don't trust Paul Millsap (now overpaid) to contribute in the same fashion, especially playing behind Boozer in a contract year... Kosta Koufos is a stiff that I don't think will ever make a significant impact....blah blah blah...I like the squad... bounce-back ahead
- 4. Dallas (52-30) - I was taken aback when I looked at this roster again...how do they play all these guys? I know what I'd do... Play Dirk at the 5 ALOT...will they? who knows...but that makes the most sense.... check out this roster of Guards/Forwards....Kidd, Terry, Barea, Howard, Marion... That pretty much maintains that Dirk needs to play the 5...but add in Quentin Ross and James Singleton (who they've made reasonable investments in as role players).... and Erick Dampier being the only proven center (yikes)... and there's still a log-jam... Interesting to see if Kidd can have the same type of year...if he does, this ranking looks good to me....
- 3. Portland (55-27) - Depth... young talent... no weaknesses....headlines of Portland... there are questions, however....can Greg Oden stay on the floor/emerge as a big-time player? Can Andre Miller fit in on a team that walks the ball up the floor? Will LaMarcus Aldridge take it easy after getting paid? All questions that I'll try to answer.... 1) I like Oden...I'm convinced he makes at least a mini-leap this year....at least to the 14/9/2 range... if they get that out of him, this seeding may be modest.... 2) Andre Miller....yeesh... Never a huge fan, and I hate the fit...but at the same time, what have they really been getting out of the PG position? I'm as big of a Steve Blake fan as anyone...but be serious... He won't be great...but he won't kill them...at least ON the court... 3) Aldridge is who we thought he was (apologies to Dennis Green)... 18 and 8...put it on the board.... After all that...we haven't mentioned legit star Brandon Roy....or that this team employs Juwan Howard AND Rudy Fernandez (how do I not root for them?)... this is going to be fun...
- 2. LA Lakers (59-23) - Let me say this...I actually think the Lakers may end up with the best regular season record...more because the #1 seed below is known for coasting a bit early... But don't let that fool you...this team isn't as good as the 08-09 version.... on PAPER, Ron Artest is an upgrade from Trevor Ariza....I'll go the other way... Ron-Ron isn't the same lock-down perimeter defender he was 3 years ago..and he's going to kill them at times on offense with abysmal shot selection.... the rest of the roster? Here we go... The point guard play can't get worse than late last year...so that's a plus... Andrew Bynum should improve (if he can stay on the court), and Pau Gasol is an elite 4.....but here's the big swing guy....Lamar Odom....Khloe Kardashian not withstanding...he's a huge enigma at times...and he can't afford to be....I like them..,but you couldn't pay me to pick them over............
- 1. San Antonio (63-19) - Ah yes....the Spurs... Timmy D has one left in him doesn't he? Manu's healthy...Parker's Healthy...they have a 4th wheel in Richard Jefferson...Antonio McDyess was an absolute steal and is the best frontcourt partner Duncan has had since Robinson retired (not saying much though).... DeJuan Blair is a player it seems... and I even enjoy the George Hill/Roger Mason backcourt depth... if there's a weakness? It's behind Jefferson... Michael Finley is there but not his old self...and I'm hesitant to see if Pop will actually put Blair out there in a big spot...that being said.... I have the utmost confidence in this squad...and that's why they reside here.....
Part 2 later... Get fired up!!!!
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