- 15. Milwaukee (19-63) - It gets ugly quick with Milwaukee.... Both of their top players are coming off serious injury (Bogut and Redd), and frankly that core of "best" players isn't very good anyway (even though i enjoy both guys work)... Joe Alexander is banged up already, R-Jeff is gone...and with that is one of the worst forward rotations I can remember (Hakim Warrick is their best forward), combine that with what will be inconsistent PG play from Jennings....yikes
- 14. New Jersey (24-58) - Young talent...check.... experience....ehh...not so much.... Brook Lopez is going to be a star at the pivot (I'm thinking 18 and 10 this year in his soph campaign), and Devin Harris is an upper-level PG...those are the locks.... at the swing spots and the 4? It gets cloudy... There's one legit 4 on the team and it's Eduardo Najera... ehh... They will trot out Yi at the 4 who is softer than cotton...I like rookie Terrence Williams but do you trust him, Bobby Simmons, Courtney Lee, and Chris Douglas-Roberts as your wings? Neither do I....
- 13. New York (27-55) - A really, really weird offseason in New York...their 2 free agents got low-balled everywhere and ended up resigning 1-year pacts (Lee and Robinson), they had the 8th pick in a 7 player draft (although Jordan Hill as upside), and they added nothing of substance....the 5 is the glaring hole...Eddy Curry is once again out-of-shape and potentially banished, and only Darko is behind him... There are some guys I like (Chandler, Lee, even Gallinari), but same old story with Duhon and Nate in the backcourt...they'll outrun people...but not consistently
- 12. Indiana (29-53) - There's one reason this team is ahead of New Jersey and New York...they have Danny Granger... a legit all-star who will be in the top 5-6 in the league in scoring and provides them with ammo to win some games... Roy Hibbert is reportedly playing well (I'll believe it when I see it), and if they duplicate last year's production from Troy Murphy (a reach), they'll be okay upfront...hey...they even have Psycho T!... The question is depth.... Dahntay Jones and Earl Watson....behind injury-prone TJ Ford and Mike Dunleavy...
- 11. Charlotte (34-48) - Depth is critical to the Bobcats...the starting 5 is surprisingly good on paper (Chandler, Diaw, Wallace, Bell, Felton)...but after them...the only legit rotation guy I see is DJ Augustin....so any injuries (i.e. the one they already have to Raja Bell) spell big-time issues.. they'll need somebody to step up off the bench to compete
- 10. Detroit (36-46) - This ranking seems like a gift... you spent 90+ million on 2 guys that I can without question say could never be top 2 players on championship teams...I don't even think Ben Gordon is a starter in this league... the center rotation is Kwame Brown/Ben Wallace's corpse/Chris Wilcox....yeesh... The saving grace? Rip and Prince are back...and I like Maxiell and Austin Daye...
- 9. Miami (39-43) - Courtesy to D-Wade here... they've done NOTHING to help him at all... no depth...very little talent... the 9th spot is pending a slight improvement from Beasley and Chalmers (far from a lock), and getting some sort of production from Jermaine O'neal...I don't even wanna talk about it....get that man some help Pat Riley
- 8. Philly (42-40) - I've gone back and forth 100 times on Philly...talent abounds... I think Elton Brand has a fairly substantial rebound year in him...but I am wary of the backcourt situation... Iguodala is solid, but I don't think he's a natural 2-guard and he isn't a go-to scorer...and Jrue Holiday and Louis Williams share the point duties with neither being a natural fit...they're both scorers and very big talents...but can they mesh? Enthusiasm tempered...
- 7. Washington (44-38) - Agent Zero returns...and looks good (even distributing, gasp).... when I did my initial draft of this...I had them #10 because of Arenas' skepticism...he's shown me a little...so here we stand...the frontcourt is highly underrated from a talent/upside standpoint... Blatche and JeVale McGee are both legit threats down there and both are very young and improving...Haywood is the steadying force.... Jamison (already injured as of writing), Butler and Gil will do the heavy lifting...and if anybody could assure me they'd be healthy, the Wiz would be 5th...but if they can even have 2 of them on the floor...they'll justify this spot
- 6. Toronto (46-36) - Team International... Scary starting 5...absolutely huge up front with Bargnani/Bosh/Hedo...all 6'9+ and all very dangerous on the offensive end...on the other side, very limited on defense with Bargnani and Hedo... and the gaping hole at the 2 still stands...let's just say I'm not high on DeRozan...at least not as a rookie... Calderon's efficiency is scary...but the depth (Rasho and Bellinelli are the first 2 off the bench I see)..is questionable
- 5. Chicago (47-35) - I think at the end of 2009-10, Derrick Rose will join the top 3 PG in the league discussion with Mr. Williams and Mr. Paul...and that's why they're here... Surprisingly this is a fairly deep club... the x-factor? Luol Deng without question...is he the Deng from 06-07 that was an up and coming superstar? Or the timid 13 ppg guy we've seen lately? Factor in the Tyrus Thomas upside show...and there's a few directions this could go... I'm high on John Salmons and Joakim Noah though, and I think Hinrich and Pargo can replace most of Ben Gordon's production...
- 4. Atlanta (50-32) - My wheelhouse... I could write 1,000 words on this squad....but I'll shorten it up...same starting 5... Crawford is a legit scorer off the bench (and I'm not convinced he's not on the floor in crunch-time)... Horford makes a small leap... Smith returns to 07-08 form (nothing spectacular, but not as bad as last year)... Mo Evans gets buried...Jeff Teague has his ups and downs...but the biggest thing about this team...there's a legitimate bench here for the first time in a long, long time...and that's worst 5 wins by itself...not ready to challenge the upper tier...but I think a clear-cut #4...
- 3. Boston (58-24) - Here we go with the big boys... KG is clearly the x-factor... no one seems to be able to diagnose this guy...he's out there and looks okay in pre-season... and that's enough for me...especially with the depth they added (Marquis Daniels, re-signing Big Baby, bringing in Sheed)... If they can make Rajon Rondo happy enough to play at the playoff level, and they don't get big drop-offs from Allen and Pierce...coasting to a high seed even with 80% of KG and they'd be higher if I thought they'd go all-out all year...
- 2. Cleveland (61-21) - They traded Sasha Pavlovic, Wally, Joe Smith and Ben Wallace for Shaq, Jamario Moon, and Anthony Parker....I'd say advantage this year over last....that being said, I don't love the Shaq fit (I'm not convinced Z isn't a better player in this offense) and I'm definitely not convinced he can just fall in line behind Lebron... but the Moon/Parker signings were sneaky good (Moon on D, Parker on Offense)...and they still have the King...An x-factor? Delonte West after all the off-court issue...he makes that backcourt go
- 1. Orlando (63-19) - I'm drinking the Kool-aid...at least in the regular season...there's just an insane amount of depth on this team... Howard/Gortat/Rashard/Brandon Bass/Ryan Anderson/Pietrus/Barnes/Vince/Jameer/Jason Williams.... that's without question the most talented 10-man rotation in the league.... now... Vince Carter...obviously he's the key here... he's a jump-shooter for the most part at this stage...can he be a supporting guy? We've never seen him try to be...I'm highly intrigued...can they figure out an effective way to handle the forward rotation? Soooo many guys...all talented...all do different things...somebody has to get buried (I hope it's not Ryan Anderson)... and the important backup PG battle...you laugh... but Jameer has a slight injury history and it'll be crucial to get effective play out of either Anthony Johnson or Jason Williams... I'm sold on the regular season...but the playoffs? I guess we'll see.....
Part 3 later today...and Regular Season tip tonight!
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