Two 3-0 leads...

The NBA slate consists of 2 series that have the favorite leading 3-0 and playing on the road in Game 4.... Does Atlanta have a chance? Does Dallas have what it takes to bounce back from that grueling loss?....

Atlanta/Cleveland....Let's just say, as a Hawks fan, I'm not optimistic....

1. Al Horford isn't healthy...the only reliable post defender/rebounder on this team (sorry Zaza) is visibly bothered by that ankle injury....after Pachulia's ejection forced him to play all but 90 seconds of the 2nd half in Game 3, Horford showed a noticable limp, and combined to commit 5 fouls and garner 0 rebounds and 0 assists in the final 11 minutes...
   
2. Joe Johnson can't seem to shake Delonte West....I was encouraged by the side of fire that Joe showed against West after they minced words late in Game 3...let's see more of the attack...the only way West can deter him is to keep him from attacking using his frustrating quickness....
3. I know the Lebron argument...let him get his and stop the other guys....but that only works if you stop ALL the other guys...which honestly doesn't seem plausible in this series...you're always going to be allowing something...whether it's open 3's from Williams/West/Gibson/Wally....or open 15 footers from Joe Smith and Big Z (who, by the way is absolutely automatic from midrange)... BUT I was, in fact, on board with playing well off Lebron and making him shoot jumpers...he was unconscious on Saturday....but that's the only way to attack him at this point...
4. Josh Smith, entering game 3, was 7-37 on 2-point jump shots and 2-14 on 3-pt jump shots in the playoffs....needless to say...that's unbelievably mortifying.... he's a putrid NBA jump shooter, but has not, and may never realize this.... I charted him at 4/8 on 2 point jumpers (not good, but not terrible), and 0-1 on 3-pointers in game 3..... making him 11-45 on 2's and 3-15 on 3's for the playoffs.... and these aren't the kind of jumpshots that Joe Johnson takes where he's fading and covered...the vast majority of these are uncontested... TRANSLATION: If you're reading this Josh...stop shooting jump shots altogether....and stick to the intermediate/attacking game...where you have shot a combined 46-84 in the playoffs (55% including 78% on layups/tip-ins/basket finishing attempts)...it's simple math really.
5. 2 things won't happen in Game 4...Lebron won't shoot the jumpshot as well as he did in Game 3....and the rest of the Cavs guards (Williams, West, Gibson, Wally) will shoot better than 9-26 FG, 1-10 3's.... 

Do I think Atlanta wins this game? Absolutely not...but the chances of them competing for 4 quarters and POSSIBLY sneaking a win in this one hinge directly on the health of Al Horford, the conscious decision to attack the rim by both Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, and the close-out defense on the perimeter jump shooters for Cleveland....Cleveland 95, Atlanta 86...Lebron finishes with 34, 13 and 8....

• I won't go to the detail on the Dallas series simply b/c I'm not as familiar with the parties... I do think that Denver closes them out tonight....and in the interest of full disclosure, I'll admit that I thought Dallas could win this series outright and at least take it to 6-7 games...but after the way game 3 ended (a ludicrous result that the NBA even admitted was so egregious that they swiftly issued a negative statement toward the no-call)...and the way Josh Howard/Mark Cuban/et. al reacted to the ending....I see a letdown for Dallas...that was their Game 7...and was so gut-wrenching that I don't see them pulling the same sort of effort tonight.... Denver by 9...