MLB Preview: NL Central

Part 5 of the 7-part MLB Preview goes to the NL Central....and the winner is?

1. Chicago Cubs- This was in a dead-heat with the AL West for "easiest division to pick the winner in"....Clearly the best team....Best lineup (slightly edging the Brewers) AND best starting rotation in the division.... Any offense that sports exactly 1 semi-weakness (Fukudome in Center) and nothing else glaring? Impressive....What about the rotation? Zambrano-Lilly-Dempster-Harden is the best top 4 in the National League when healthy and Sean Marshall could be good in the 5 spot.... throw in Jeff Samardzjia, Aaron Heilman, and Carlos Marmol (who SOMEHOW didn't beat out shaky Kevin Gregg for the closer job) and I'm impressed mightily from top to bottom....they should win 95-97 and have homefield throughout the NL.... X-Factors: Harden/Zambrano health, Fukudome production
   


2. Milwaukee Brewers- They have the bats (Braun, Fielder, Hart, Hardy) to match anybody...we all know that....but it really comes down to the 1-5 pitching....period...I'm actually going to give them more credit than most (for now).... I'm a Yovani Gallardo supporter, Dave Bush is competent, and Manny Parra is talented...but they are suspect as best 1-5.... Trevor Hoffman was brought into close games and is already on the DL.... This team being my #2 is more on skepticism of the rest of the division than confidence in the Brew Crew.... X-Factors: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Prince Fielder, Pitching



3. Cincinnati Reds- I really, really like the Reds roster....let me say that now....I just don't trust them fully yet....the rotation is young and promising...Volquez was great last year, Harang can't possibly be that bad again...Arroyo is more than competent in the NL, Cueto/Bailey/Owings have potential if nothing else...I'm high on them....The bats? I love Joey Votto's upside, Brandon Phillips, and Jay Bruce...but there really isn't much else...Willy Taveras provides speed and nothing else, Alex Gonzalez can't hit, left field is a mystery.... Francisco Cordero is lock-down in the 9th, but they have no one proven and/or dependable to bridge the gap in the 7th and 8th....they are a year away.... X-Factors: Jay Bruce's progression, Johnny Cueto/Homer Bailey, Non-closer Bullpen



4. St. Louis Cardinals- I keep seeing articles picking St. Louis and I can't see it....Chris Carpenter is back, but can he be trusted? I know how good Adam Wainwright is (and you should too) but Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer don't scare anyone... The lineup is good on paper until you realize that Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel are both 1-year wonders at this juncture and outside of Pujols (who is the surest of sure things) the infield is suspect at best....Khalil Greene is in a contract year and away from Petco he is usually productive.... But add in the bullpen questions (no proven closer, etc.) and I can't see them competing for the 2nd spot much less challenging the Cubs... X-Factors: Carpenter's health, Bullpen, the outfield not taking a stepback
5. Pittsburgh Pirates- Not gonna lie....I have no idea how this team isn't last....but it happens...This team, on paper, really isn't as bad as it usually is....the payroll is still strikingly low but there is some young talent...Andy Laroche is highly touted (and his brother will hit 30 HRs), Nate McLouth is all-star caliber, and Ryan Doumit may be the best hitting catcher you've never heard of....There are some definitely holes in the lineup (LF for example) but they have some talent....the rotation is better than you'd think too....Paul Maholm was quite good last year (and noone knew it) and Ian Snell has the talent and the pedigree... after that? Yikes...Zach Duke is the only guy you'd likely recognize and that's probably for the wrong reasons....Bullpen? Matt Capps throws 98 and shuts folks down (when he has the lead) but the bridge is suspect....I like them more than most, so I won't bury them at 60-100....More like...72-90 ish? Unless they firesale....then all bets are off.... X-Factors: Maholm's encore, The Laroche brothers, Brandon Moss in RF


6. Houston Astros- Weird to have them this low...but there is a reason....Quick...name a non-Roy Oswalt starter.....hmmm...there's Mike Hampton.... Wandy Rodriguez....Briah Moehler...Russ Ortiz....what do they have in common? None of them are even competent much less above-average.... Pencil in Berkman, Lee, and Hunter Pence for big years...but there are holes everywhere in the lineup (especially with Tejada's legal stuff)...I just don't trust them..... X-Factors: Anyone that pitches that isn't named Oswalt or Valverde, Miguel Tejada