Friday, April 17, 2009

NBA Playoff Preview: East

With the matchups now set...I'm busting out a preview....I'll be wayyy more in-depth with the first round series'(while still predicting the entire playoffs) and then will preview the rest of the playoffs as it goes....Enjoy....

#1 Cleveland vs. #8 Detroit

  • Backcourt Matchup: Stuckey/Hamilton vs. Williams/West.... This will ignore that Lebron is really a guard...but I digress.....This is actually a pretty even matchup....Williams has had a great year (17 ppg, 44% 3pt, 91% FT) and leads the Cleveland attack although both guys are effective offensively and at least adequate defensively (West is above-average though undersized).....You know what Hamilton brings for Detroit, he will put up his 18-20 a game in this series, but the key is the complete lack of experience with Stuckey and the questions over who is actually their best option at that spot (Will Bynum has come out of nowhere), in the end I don't trust Stuckey at all and for that...Advantage (Slight): Cleveland

  • Frontcourt matchup: Prince/McDyess/Wallace vs. Lebron/Varejao/Ilgauskas....Well this isn't close....and it wouldn't be close even if Lebron wasn't the best player on the planet (and was just an average star)....Lebron is the best player in the league and while Prince is a well-above-average defender...Lebron will average 30 in the series and be...well, Lebron....Varejao has been tremendous on the interior for Cleveland, but I'll give McDyess the slight edge based upon the double-double he's averaged for the entire 2nd half....Rasheed Wallace has quietly regressed mightily and while Big Z isn't fun to watch...he's effective (13 and 8 on 47% fg, 80% FT)....Advantage (Big): Cleveland

  • Bench: Bynum/Afflalo/Maxiell/Kwame Brown vs. Gibson/Wally/Joe Smith/JJ Hickson.... Will Bynum has been the reason Detroit has avoided missing the playoffs altogether...but I simply can't trust him to produce in the playoffs without a track record of any sort... Maxiell will provide energy and Kwame has been almost decent....but Daniel Gibson killing 3's, Wally's ability to provide scoring and Joe Smith's veteran steadiness (and automatic 15 footer) sends me their way... Advantage: Cleveland

  • Coaching: Michael Curry vs. Mike Brown.... Yikes.... I'm not the biggest Mike Brown fan as everyone knows...but Curry's complete inabililty to incorporate Allen Iverson (prior to injury), refusal to acknowledge who the lead guard is between Stuckey and Bynum, and willingness to just flounder in the 80's lead me to taking Brown in this matchup simply b/c he's figured out he can just put the ball in Lebron's hands and surround him with guys who can knock down jumpshots (even big guys like Z and Joe Smith) and just do things that way.... Advantage: Cleveland

  • The pick? Cleveland in 4
#4 Atlanta vs. #5 Miami
  • Backcourt matchup: Bibby/Johnson vs. Chalmers/Wade.... This is the key battle...and despite what you may think on paper...Mario Chalmers vs. Mike Bibby isn't a mismatch....Based upon what I've seen from Bibby this year, this may even lead toward Miami...Bibby is simply a defensive liability in the mold of Steve Nash or Jason Kidd...without the offensive firepower of those 2 gentlemen....sure, Bibby is slightly above-average offensively...but meh.... Joe vs. Wade? The best player on both teams....but Wade is clearly the better player, and will average 30 in the series with Joe somewhere between 21 and 24.... Advantage (slight): Miami

  • Frontcourt matchup: Williams/Smith/Horford vs. Moon/Haslem/O'Neal.... The key is Marvin Williams' health but he looked nearly 100% in putting up his 13 points in his return (in under 20 minutes) and should matchup favorably with Jamario Moon...I have a well-chronicled beef with Josh Smith...but he's simply a better player than Udonis Haslem and if he doesn't take 6 jumpers a game, I feel comfortable with him in this series.... Here's something you may not know...Jermaine O'Neal is done...absolutely done...I've never seen an athlete decrease so quickly at the age of 30...he's only 30! but yet, Al Horford is a clear upgrade at this point.... Simply... Advantage (big): Atlanta

  • Bench: Murray/Evans/Pachulia vs. Beasley/Cook/Jones/Magloire.... Beasley is clearly the best player on either side...but he's fairly awful defensively and doesn't matchup well with the guys he'd be playing against (namely Smith and Williams).... Murray has been the most pleasant surprise for Atlanta proving (at least in this his contract year) to be an adequate 6th man who can handle the ball and score.... The pivotal matchup here? How bout Pachulia vs. Magloire (or Joel Anthony)...Zaza was very good in the playoffs last year...and I'll hitch my wagon to him there....overall? Advantage (very, very slight): Atlanta (probably the only opponent I would say that for)

  • Coaching: Mike Woodson vs. Erik Spoelstra...Interesting one here....Quickly, I like Erik Spoelstra alot...I think he's done a very nice job (it helps to have Wade) of carrying a pretty bad roster to the 5 seed.....and Woodson? I'm higher on him than I have been...he does crazy in-game things (like playing Mario West or inexplicably ice-colding Josh Smith at times)...but uses his frontcourt rotation effectively and realizes that he has no bench and maneuvers adequately.... Advantage: Miami

  • The pick? Atlanta in 7
#3 Orlando vs. #6 Philly

  • Backcourt Matchup: Skip Alston/Courtney Lee vs. Andre Miller/Willie Green.....Let me say this....Yikes....Okay now that that is over... Andre Miller is the only legitimate NBA starter out of these 4 (at this stage of his career) and will likely swing this by himself....but alot of this series hinges on how Skip Alston plays.... Willie Green will give you what he gives you...bad shots, chances at instant offense and not much else....and Courtney Lee can't be relied upon on the offensive end at this point but is an above-average defender that will likely get the Andre Iguodala assignment alot.... Advantage: Philly
  • Frontcourt Matchup: Turkoglu/Lewis/Howard vs. Iguodala/Young/Dalembert....well, this isn't as far away as you may think thanks to how Thaddeus Young has played lately....but Howard is still Howard and dominates the paint battle.... Alot of this has to do with the health of Turkoglu and Lewis...if they aren't 100%, that alone can swing the series.... I'm a big fan of what Iggy can bring, and although he isn't a "go-to" guy in my opinion, he'll do enough.... Advantage: Orlando (Smaller than you may think)
  • Bench: Lou Williams/Royal Ivey/Reggie Evans/Marreese Speights vs. Anthony Johnson/JJ Redick/Mickael Pietrus/Marcin Gortat.... Boy this looks bad on paper.... Pietrus and Williams are legitimate rotation guys....and Speights has that upside....but this could get ugly.... Anthony Johnson is what he is...a stop-gap who won't absolutely kill you.... Royal Ivey is and has always been a trainwreck...I can't talk about it rationally.... JJ Redick has a discernable skill....you know what it is....kid can shoot.... but the key to this is the big man matchup between Speights and Battie/Gortat.... Leans toward Philly for me... Advantage: Philly
  • Coaching: Stan Van Gundy vs. Tony DiLeo.... Do you know who Tony DiLeo is? Me neither...but he has done a reasonably good job and has this team going down the stretch... that said, Van Gundy is a legit coach of the year candidate and has been here before.... Advantage: Orlando
  • The pick? Philly in 6 ****UPSET SPECIAL****
#2 Boston vs. #7 Chicago
  • Backcourt Matchup: Rondo/Allen vs. Rose/Gordon.... Now this is more like it.... A battle between 2 of the best 5 young PGs in the league... I'm a big Rose fan...but this will be a true test for him in a battle-tested defensive stopper like Rondo.... Allen should handle Gordon on one end, but you know Gordon is good for at least one 30 point outburst in the series... Advantage: Boston 
  • Frontcourt Matchup: Pierce/Powe/Perkins vs. Salmons/Thomas/Noah....Well, you know the story here... this is suddenly not a favorable matchup for Boston like it would've been pre-KG injury.... Pierce is still an elite player and should have his way with Salmons...but Ty Thomas has been playing well and Joakim Noah won't give anything away to the offensively challenged Perkins... Advantage: Push
  • Bench: Marbury/House/Davis/Moore vs. Hinrich/Tim Thomas/Brad Miller/ As well as Marbury has been playing (under the radar he's been GREAT lately), and knowing what Eddie House can give in crunch time....I love Chicago's depth...Hinrich has always been a guy I've supported and any time you can bring him off your bench, you have something there...  Brad Miller is a former all-star who can still bring you jumpshooting and rebounding.... and frankly, I don't trust Big Baby or Mikki Moore to produce anything (especially without KG to slap them around)....The only caveat? Chicago is only 8-deep...now that seems fine...but they are ONLY 8 deep...that's the only possible field of players lol Advantage: Chicago
  • Coaching: Doc Rivers vs. Vinny Del Negro....the solitary reason I can't pick Chicago in this series is b/c of how bad Vinny D has been....and Doc has been masterful for the better part of 18 months...and yes, I know he has the players....Advantage: Boston (big)
  • The pick? Boston in 7

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