Thursday, June 24, 2010

The 2010 NBA Draft!

Greetings all... After a fantastic night of NBA discussion/insight with my confidant Ryan... I've come away with this... for my thoughts as the draft unfolded live? Look me up @browismyhero on twitter...

Pick-by-pick analysis...
  1. Washington - John Wall (PG) Kentucky - To say this wasn't shocking is an understatement... the big question for me? They just got Kirk Hinrich... giving them FOUR 6'4 PG's in their best 5-6 players... that's kind of a wild mix, eh?... I'm gonna need Randy Foye to get dealt ASAP... maybe 2 of them... But everyone loves Wall, and while I'm not convinced he's as good a prospect as Derrick Rose or that he'll ever be in the Paul/Williams class, he's the clear #1
  2. Philly - Evan Turner (SG/SF) Ohio State - The "foregone conclusion" 1-2 pick scenario actually went down despite some late-ish Favors love... I don't like the fit... at all...mostly because I don't see how the Turner/Iggy thing works, and suddenly Thaddeus Young has to play the 4 more... and I'm on record in saying Turner will never be a star... but Philly is one of those rosters with no "holes" but they have alot of holes... so it was a coinflip either way...
  3. New Jersey - Derrick Favors (PF/C) Georgia Tech - I really like Favors game... and I like the pick more because he gets to go play next to Lopez... they compliment each other well (Lopez is the polished scorer, Favors the rebounder/defender) and that gives them a legit imposing tandem up front both under 23-24 years old... Nice young core depending on who they can get in Free Agency and what happens with Harris...
  4. Minnesota - Wes Johnson (SF) Syracuse - Natural fit with Favors off the board... silky smooth wing, and the wing shooter they need... Cousins would be a weird fit with the Jefferson/Love combo in place, and other than him, I can't make a case elsewhere... I'm cool with it
  5. Sacramento - DeMarcus Cousins (C) Kentucky- Best player available here... I'm terrified of the Cousins/Evans marriage though (apologies to those who read my twitter) for this reason.. both guys are hugely talented but Cousins is an obvious maturity risk, and there are reports that Evans isn't easy to play with... I guess they had to go that way... and Cousins has the highest upside in the draft (Wall Included) in my opinion... it's going to be wild out there I think...
  6. Golden State - Ekpe Udoh (PF/C) Baylor (via Michigan) - I really like Udoh... let me say that... he has a legit NBA skill (shot-blocking) and will be a presence from the jump on that end.. but this reeks of a reach... classic Golden State though... Monroe is a better player, and this team doesn't have a frontcourt scoring presence in any way... I don't hate it like I would've had they taken Aminu... but I question it...
  7. Detroit - Greg Monroe (PF/C) Georgetown - Big Monroe fan... the fit is "meh" because they need a legit center and he isn't that... but pencil him in at the 4, and I really like his passing ability... if he played in a more suited offense for him in college, I feel like he could've been a top-3 pick (as he was slated when he got to Georgetown).. Like the pick, esp. when considering the best "center" prospect was Aldrich who'd be a reach here...
  8. LA Clippers - Al-Farouq Aminu (SF/PF) Wake Forest - Umm... I hate this pick... but I understand it... their glaring "need" is at the 3... and they probably, like most, had Aminu the highest on their board here... but I don't think he's a 3... his offensive game is so raw, and his best attributes are on the glass and defensive end... Good luck to the Clips.. typical for them though... I think I would've gone elsewhere... especially when considering I can't picture him and Griffin playing with each other
  9. Utah (via NY and Phoenix) - Gordon Heyward (SF) Butler - To say he'll fit right in is an understatement (laughter)... at any rate... there aren't many glaring holes on that roster... I would've taken a big but I can understand the lack of urgency to go snatch Ed Davis... I like the kids game, and he'll be their best shooter immediately... It feels like a reach... but with as good as Utah was last year, they can afford it a bit...
  10. Indiana - Paul George (SF/SG) Fresno State - This one I don't really understand unless Granger is imminently on the way out... they are very similar players... George is a long, athletic wing with deep range and tons of talent... but he was 2nd team All-WAC last year... 2nd team... and I'm not sure you can justify this one with Babbitt/Henry/Davis on the board...
  11. OKC (via New Orleans) - Cole Aldrich (C) Kansas - I was all ready to kill New Orleans on this pick... until they dealt it to OKC... really interesting for the Thunder here.. they take on Mo Pete's 6.6 million for next year and give up 18 and 21 for Aldrich... Sam Presti must be sold... I really like Aldrich's game and it gives them 2 legit young bigs with him and Ibaka to play alongside the Durant/Westbrook/Green/Harden core... and it's a straight money dump for NO... makes some sense on both sides
  12. Memphis - Xavier Henry (SG/SF) Kansas - Struck me as weird... but I'm guessing Memphis thinks Henry is a 3... I would've gone Babbitt because I KNOW he's a 3... but I do like Henry's game... he has very efficient offensive game with a smooth jumper, and he was the consensus best scorer coming out of HS in 2009... I don't hate it, but there were safer picks.... Babbitt in free fall...
  13. Toronto - Ed Davis (PF) North Carolina - This makes all kinds of sense... Davis free-falled a bit and it's very good value for Toronto at 13... and they suddenly have a 6'10-ish left-handed power forward for when Bosh walks away... if they could guarantee they'd be rid of Turkoglu, I would've gone Babbitt, and Patterson was in the mix.. but I think I agree with this pick... he's a shot-blocking presence that they haven't had too...
  14. Houston - Patrick Patterson (PF) Kentucky - I like this pick alot for Houston... they don't have any "pressing" needs... but front-court depth is chief among the things I would've gone with when factoring Yao's injury status and Scola's contract issues... I really, really like Patterson and feel like he's been undervalued.... he can play right away, and while they don't need him to, it'd be a nice asset
  15. Milwaukee - Larry Sanders (PF/C) VCU - Really like him... Milwaukee needs help up-front after Bogut, and this was the best big available IMO... his upside isn't as high as Whiteside's but he's certainly more apt to play right away, and they'll probably need him this year off the bench... Another nice move from Milwaukee...
  16. Portland (via Minnesota) - Luke Babbitt (SF) Nevada - 2 layers here... Portland traded Martell Webster to the T-Wolves for the pick to take Babbitt and Ryan Gomes... Minnesota needed a 2-guard and there wasn't one available so Portland filled that need to go up and grab the best player left in the draft... obviously the fit of Babbitt is a question mark with the unfathomable depth that Portland still has... but I gotta believe Rudy Fernandez is gone, and suddenly the logjam is down to Batum and Babbitt... I love Babbitt's game, and he should've gone 5 picks ago.... add in Gomes who is an instant upgrade as a backup to Aldridge, and I'm sold
  17. Chicago (from Milwaukee) - Kevin Seraphin (PF) France - This threw me for a loop because I forgot it was going to Washington in the pending Hinrich trade.. I won't pretend to know much about him... but he's reportedly a tough, athletic big... more of a project than anything else, but I don't see why Washington needs him around with guys like Blatche and McGee... That's a really, really weird roster right now...
  18. OKC (from Miami) - Eric Bledsoe (PG) Kentucky - TRADE: Bledsoe to the Clippers for a future 1st rounder... I was all set to murder this pick by OKC because I thought they made a mistake... but in the end, it's probably good value to snatch a first rounder from LAC when OKC doesn't really have any pressing needs that could've been filled at this point in their building process... for the Clips? I really like it... Baron has 3 more years, but he's semi-movable and Bledsoe gives them a highly-talented option to build behind him....
  19. Boston - Avery Bradley (SG/PG) Texas - I initially didn't get this... but if they are taking him to backup both guard spots I think I can see it... he's very talented, probably the best defender in this draft, and they won't ask him to run the show... Based on what's left in the frontcourt (not much), I don't mind it...
  20. San Antonio - James Anderson (SG) Oklahoma State - Maybe the best pure scorer on the wing in this draft... an interesting fit in San Antonio because of the guard log-jam, but the highest rated guy left on alot of people's boards here... definitely opens up the Hill-or-Parker trade scenarios even more IMO... I like his game, and he certainly has an NBA-ready skill... with the window closing on the Spurs, this makes alot of sense
  21. New Orleans (via Oklahoma City as part of draft-day deal) - Craig Brackins (PF) Iowa State - Makes some sense... I didn't love the trade-down from a basketball standpoint... but if they had to do it financially, this is the type of guy they needed to grab with one of the picks in the 20s... high upside, athletic big that gives them depth and stretches the floor... after West and Okafor, their frontcourt is jokingly bad (Songaila, Gray, etc.); Given what's out there, I don't mind it
  22. Portland - Elliot Williams (PG/SG) Memphis - What do you take on a team with this kind of depth? Euros are an option but if there was a "hole" it was at PG... they take the best available (IMO) in Williams... there are questions on his true PG skills, but there wasn't alot out there, and really not a Euro-stash candidate either... I like his game alot, and it gives them a developmental option at the point
  23. Minnesota (via Philly) - Trevor Booker (PF) Clemson - Undersized, upperclassmen power forward who rebounds and does the little things... this is the type of player that's been undervalued in recent drafts, but with Millsap/Blair/etc. performing as they are, Booker went where he should've... also, Minny dealt Ryan Gomes... and Booker is virtually the same type of player... makes some sense, and they have a bucket load of picks to work with... UPDATE: Dealt to Washington for #30 and #35... I really have no earthly idea what Washington is doing... but Booker is more NBA-ready than Brackins... so there you go
  24. Atlanta - Damion James (SF/PF) Texas - I really like his game... rebounder/defender who I think can play right away... and basically, his name isn't Daniel Orton... so I'm pleased... it's about as NBA-ready as I could've imagined, and he'd help the bench right away if needed... I like it alot... more to come on this obviously... UPDATE: Traded to NJ for picks 27 and 31... I like it for the Nets because he's ready to play now and they've gotten rid of CDR and Yi is probably gone too...
  25. Dallas (via Memphis per outright purchase of pick) - Dominique Jones (SG) South Florida - Makes more sense now that we know it was picked for Dallas... pure scorer that they could use on the wing.... Interested to see how much he plays... but he can flat-out score and gives them a legitimate 2-guard when Jason Terry is more of a tweener...
  26. New Orleans (via OKC) - Quincy Pondexter (SG/SF) Washington - love, love, love this pick for the Hornets... one of the more NBA-ready wings in the draft... can come in and contribute right away... not alot of upside to him, but he'll be strong, defend and be efficient from the jump... and they have no wings.... still..
  27. Atlanta (via New Jersey) - Jordan Crawford (SG) Xavier - Let me say this... I actually like Crawford as a player... but I hate the fit.. he's a pure scorer at a position that already includes Jamal Crawford (a commentating nightmare) and could very well be occupied by Joe Johnson for 5 more years... he doesn't offer much more... I'm perplexed... We'll obviously discuss this further in this space...
  28. Memphis - Greivis Vasquez (PG) Maryland - Not a big fan of Vasquez at the next level simply because I don't think he can cover any PG in this league... but he's big for the position, crafty, and very good offensively... if he can even be acceptable on defense, I'd like him... I just don't see it... but the flier makes sense here
  29. Orlando - Daniel Orton (C) Kentucky - This wowed me... on one hand, this is a no-pressure situation to slowly develop a young big behind Dwight Howard... that'd be all well and good... until you realize they vastly overpaid to lock up Marcin Gortat for 4 more years... I don't understand why you pick him when he has almost no chance of seeing minutes for 3 years... but maybe that's my anti-Orton bias coming in... wouldn't touch the guy with someone else's team...
  30. Minnesota (via Washington) - Lazar Heyward (SF) Marquette - A bit of a surprise that he ends up in Round 1... but a tough, gritty guy who was a proven winner at Marquette... pretty low upside, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up being a rotation guy for someone... he's very long for his height, and he can knock down jumpers... not wowed by him, but a guy I like
And there's the first round... Some notable 2nd round picks...
  • Sacramento gets Hassan Whiteside at 33 - Crazy value here... guy was in alot of people's top 10's because of crazy length and athleticism, and they can bring him along very slowly behind Cousins, great fit
  • The Knicks take Landry Fields at 39 - This says it all... Chad Ford didn't have Fields in his top 100... and that's the first time "in years" anyone has even selected someone not in the top 100... much less at 39
  • Phoenix takes local product Gani Lawal - A rare pick I liked from Phoenix... nice value.. he can rebound and score immediately, and is about as ready as anyone they could've gotten to help them
  • The Clippers take Willie Warren at 54 - In the plummet of the year... Warren was in everyone's top 10 preseason and he falls this far... extremely talented, but positionless guard who underperformed for Jeff Capel at Oklahoma... I like taking the flier here because of the talent
  • Orlando gets Stanley Robinson at 59 - One of the best athletes in the draft who has real promise if he can get his head on straight... glad someone picked him
Here are the teams that I liked from last night... and the teams I hated... and yes, it's early...
  • Liked - Houston (Patterson gives them another body inside, i was high on him), LA Lakers (without a 1st-rounder, got Ebanks and Caracter who both have upside), Milwaukee (got 3 big bodies, will likely hit on one, and Hobson is nice value), New Jersey (Favors and James are both guys I liked alot, and they needed to get a legit SF after ridding themselves of CDR), New Orleans (Brackins gives them an athletic big that they don't have, and Pondexter helps right away), OKC (Went up to get Aldrich, really the only guy who could've gotten minutes for them at that spot unless they went into the top 6, and stashed some talent late), Portland (Pritchard went out with a bang... I really like Luke Babbitt, and they took 2 point guards, which is their only real need position), Sacramento (Suddenly a scary team on paper, they managed to get Cousins AND Hassan Whiteside, dividing the risk a bit), San Antonio (Anderson can help them right away, they did the typical Euro-stash in Round 2), Toronto (Davis is good value at 13, and they managed to get Solomon Alabi at 50 which is crazy value IMO, and both guys are defensively skilled bigs)
  • Teams I hated - Atlanta (more to come), Golden State (I actually like Ekpe Udoh, but that's a reach at 6, and when you only have one pick, wouldn't it have made sense to try and go down?), Indiana (They took 2 wings with "upside" but they already have Danny Granger... I don't really get either pick, but especially George), Orlando (as much as I liked the 2nd round pick of Robinson, I really, really don't understand the Orton pick... they are over-committed to Gortat, and I don't like Orton at all anyway), Utah (Not necessarily anti-Heyward, but I felt like Babbitt was a better player/fit, and I'm not sure Heyward helps them quickly), Washington (Slow down... I like Wall, everyone does... this is more about taking Seraphin at 17 and Booker at 23... where do all these young bigs go? They already have Blatche, McGee, and even Al Thornton... seems clogged)
Guys I can't believe went undrafted...
  • Manny Harris and Sylven Landesburg - 2 guys that I saw in various FIRST rounds in mocks... Harris is the devastating one because he's an early entry, but Landesburg was one of ESPN's John Hollinger's top 10 guys... pretty crazy that neither got picked with guys like Landry Fields flying off...
  • Ben Uzoh and Jon Scheyer - Both combo guards with high skill levels and positional question marks... but there wasn't a single guard (outside of high-upside Willie Warren) taken after Andy Rautins in the mid-2nd round...
  • Brian Zoubek - alot of pre-draft buzz about him as a legit 7-footer who had an NBA ready skill (rebounding)... he'll latch on somewhere I'm sure
  • Sherron Collins - this tweet I read says it all... "5 foot 10... 229 pounds"
And now for the fun part... the Hawks breakdown...
  • I like Jordan Crawford... if we would've taken him at 24 and said nothing else... I would've been un-moved by it... but not angry... he's a legitimate scorer who does things (i.e. shoot/score) that the organization values alot... also, if Joe walks away, he could step in off the bench in 2010-11 and get buckets... but if the "plan" is to bring Joe back... he's buried... here's a quote from Bret LaGree of ESPN's Hoopinion blog... "The resources wasted in acquiring Crawford reminds one, on a much smaller scale, of the deal that brought Johnson to Atlanta in a first place, a deal in which sound player evaluation was undermined, at least in terms of building a championship-quality team, by the cost of the acquisition." Basically, the Hawks are cheap... The initial pick (Damion James at 24) made me quite pleased... it would've been an immediate contributor who can really defend and rebound (2 big weaknesses of the roster), and provide legit front-court depth and flexibility... the real issue? You moved from 24 to 27 (saving about $100,000 a year, wee!) and then outright sold the #31 pick for 3 million dollars (not helping the product) with guys like Whiteside/Alabi on the board... I wasn't a huge Whiteside fan, but when you've already snatched a ready-to-contribute guy in Crawford, take that flier on a legitimate center... and I can't speak rationally on Pape Sy at #53 yet... he was ranked somewhere between #77 and #121 on the 6 "big boards" I've seen... he barely played on a bad French pro team, and he's a point forward type in the Boris Diaw mold... I thought Billy Knight moved on... passing on guys like Harris/Landesburg/Caracter is a bit disconcerting... In the end, I realize the ownership is financially strapped, but it's hard to support a trade-down when it's simply to sell off a pick and (in my mind) downgrade on the guy you select... But, welcome to the fold Jordan Crawford... I hope we don't need to play you in year one because that means Joe is back... but if you can fill the Jamal role in year 2 when he walks as a free agent... that'd be lovely
There it is... the 2010 Draft is completed... July 1 starts free agency and the next step... the NBA is FANNN-tastic... I love this game

7 comments:

Burk said...

Very nice analysis BRow. If the Hawks don't resign Joe, are we still going to run like a 1v1/iso offense through JaCrawford?

Brad said...

Larry Drew said he plans on going toward more ball movement and less iso even if Joe is back... I guess we'll see

Jake said...

im betting joe is gone. when i saw the james pick i thought he may have been a josh smith replacement. you think there will be a chance for a sign and trade with joejohn, or are there too many big free agents for that to work? maybe we can resign joe and package jamal and marvin for a big man. im gonna stop now.

Brad said...

Jake, I think Joe is gone... I wouldn't say it's for sure... but it's looking that direction... the sign-n-trade thing is always dangerous because most of the time, you have to try to match salaries with teams that want him in a sign-n-trade but fortunately, this year, most of the teams that would be in the market have cap room so the salary matching isn't as crucial... I just caution people that even if we swing and sign-n-trade, the returns probably won't be too impressive... Jamal is really the only tradeable piece we have (outside of Josh Smith) because he's entering the last year of his deal, but Marvin's contract is fairly outlandish and no one really wants any part of it

Ryan said...

Great breakdown even though I was there live.The Hawks to me have showed their hand about Joe..hiring a 1st time coach(cheap),trading down(nice money breakdown btw) and drafting another SG..they have done nothing thus far to pay for anything(for whatever reasons) and I feel like the talent that will be brought out there will suffer as a result..thats the most Hawks talk you'll get outta me.

Burk said...

I heard we could resign Joe to a max contract and exceed the cap. Can we do that we any of the other big free agents who r lookin for max contracts? Cuz Joe needs to go but we def need to replace 20+ ppg. Or am I just way off base here.

Brad said...

Burk, we can go over the cap to sign Joe because we ha e his rights... For a random free agent like Wade or lebron we'd have to have the cap room which we wouldn't... We'll have 6 million-ish I think under the cap if Joe walks...