- Joe Johnson isn't one of the top 15 guys in this league... here's proof... stop me when you get to a guy you wouldn't rather have... Lebron, Wade, Kobe, Bosh, Dirk, Duncan, Durant, Paul, D. Williams, Rondo, Carmelo, Howard, Nash, Rose, Roy... there's 15 right there... not even counting young guys you'd rather have on your team going forward...
- The "average" salary in this deal is just under $20 million... but that doesn't tell the story... the deal starts lower and escalates with raises every year... basically, by the end of this deal (when he'd be in his mid-30s and not even as valuable as he is now) he'd be making in the neighborhood of $23 million per... he's not worth the starting salary in his prime, much less that number on the downside...
- $20 million a year is insanity
- Al Horford isn't locked up yet... he's still on a rookie deal and they only have FULL control over him through 2010-11 (qualifying offer in 2011-12, etc. but you get the idea)... I can't imagine him getting less than $10 million per season on the open market right now, so add that in to the pending salary cap and a luxury tax threshold that the Atlanta Spirit would never consider crossing... what happens then?
What am I saying? There are 2 sides to this issue... one side is the "keep Joe" camp that thinks (and I agree with this sentiment) that if he walks for nothing, the Hawks will be a mid-30's team as far as wins next year, and that's the extent of their foresight on the issue... they haven't possibly considered the future with a tightly financed ownership group, and the ramifications of such a lock-up of Joe.... The other side? Get rid of Joe... don't make an effort, etc... or even the "sign and trade" camp... for those people? I'd point you to http://www.hoopinionblog.com/2010/06/unsolicited-advice-on-eve-of-free.html (and I agree) for the reasons that may not work... for one? We don't want a less talented, equally bad contracted player to clog minutes... Most sign and trades are not talent equal, and we will, with a 90%-plus likelihood be losing this trade from a pure talent standpoint if it happens... Read the above blogpost from Bret LaGree for the full breakdown...
What side am I on? Here it is simply...
- If the Hawks can resign Joe Johnson a deal similar to the one they offered him previously (4 years, 60 million), I'd be on board... that's reasonable in this market for his talents because the length isn't outlandish and $15 million per, while still overpaying for him, isn't crazy... Likelihood here? Slim-to-none
- If he can get the 5-year max elsewhere, and brings it to the Hawks and says, "I'll come back for the 6-year max"? Tell him to walk....
- If he is holding another team hostage for the full 6-year max and comes to the Hawks and says "sign and trade me", I'm fine with that... provided we take back a) a young, cheap asset and draft picks if it's with a team with cap room (i.e. New Jersey, New York, Chicago, LAC, Minny, Sacto) and b) NOT an overpaid wing with a bad contract (Caron Butler from Dallas) or cap-filler that can't help us... the best deal I've seen tossed out? Houston offering Kevin Martin and a small contract or pick for Joe... I'd be all over that deal... Martin is relatively fairly priced (averaging $12 million per for 3 more years), is efficient, and isn't a ball-stopper/iso guy... do I think that deal is real? Probably not... but the model is a) don't clog the cap, and b) if you're taking back pieces, make sure they help you... there's no rule stating you HAVE to sign-n-trade him just because he asked...
Alot of this is scatter-brained analysis, and there's limited info to go on.... I encourage you read that Hoopinion blog link above, as he is well-reasoned and informed in a way that most Hawks fans never see by following the Hawks via the AJC or some other more mainstream form... We will know alot more on Thursday...
2 comments:
Idk why anyone would think keeping Joe is a good idea for 6 years, 119 mill. We would have the same team that got embarrassed in the playoffs last year. We would still have a egomaniacal/non team player who takes off balance jumpers/low percntage shots most of the time. I just don't see the Hawks being able to progress through the years as a franchise by resigning Joe.
It's really ugly.... I'm gonna write something about it soon, but trying to see if it's really finalized before I bite the bullet
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