1. Texas Rangers (89-73) - It hasn't happened very often lately in the AL West, but I like a repeat division winner this year...
- Lineup -The Rangers have undoubtedly the best lineup in this division... Josh Hamilton leads the way coming off a ludicrous .359 average with 32 HR, and 100 RBI last year (1.044 OPS!) and he returns with other studs like Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and the ultra-speedy Elvis Andrus from the division-winning team last year... there is a big-time addition at 3B this year in Adrian Beltre, who is coming off a monster year in Boston, and he has relegated Michael Young to a DH/jack-of-all-trades role... anytime you have a guy capable of hitting .300+ with power and you can't find a place to play him? That's a sign of depth, and that's the situation with Young this year.... One thing to monitor in addition to Young in terms of playing time is how they fit in Mike Napoli... they shipped Frank Francisco off for him in the offseason, and the powerful Napoli can flat-out hit... but he c can't play D behind the plate with any confidence... Enough about the offense...
- Starting Pitching - The pitching is the concern here... Cliff Lee has moved on to Texas, leaving behind a rotation of CJ Wilson, Tommy Hunter, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, and... wait for it... Brandon Webb!?... Wilson, Lewis, and Hunter were all pretty darn good in 2010 (sub 4-00 ERAs in the AL for starters), but none of them short of maybe Wilson is someone I believe you can pencil in for that type of success with any confidence level... and then there's Webb... the former NL Cy Young winner hasn't pitched in a couple of years, and honestly, there's no idea what he can actually bring... It's not an awful rotation, especially in this division, but nothing to write home about...
- Bullpen - Neftali Feliz was elite last year in the closer role, and there's no reason to think he won't be again... 40+ saves with good ERA and WHIP, and high K potential leaves virtually nothing to be desired... the rest of the pen is pretty average with elder statesmen like Arthur Rhodes, and Darren Oliver leading the way... if they can bridge the gap to Feliz, they'll be in good shape...
- Bench - This is about as good of an AL bench as you'll see... as noted previously, they have 9-10 starting-type bats depending on who's playing... leaving Young, Napoli, etc. to come off the bench... pretty stout... Also, David Murphy is an above-average 4th outfielder that would start in alot of cities...
Overall, I like Texas to win the division fairly comfortably behind that gauntlet-like lineup, and some underrated pitching... but if the rotation goes haywire, it could get interesting quickly...
2. Oakland Athletics (82-80) - Hmm... you may be surprised that they rank ahead of the Angels... but hear me out here...
- Lineup - When I think of Oakland, I think soft-hitting... maybe an indictment on the anonymous nature of their roster composition, but this isn't a terrible lineup this year... I like Daric Barton (1B) as an up-and-comer, Josh Willingham is coming off a huge year in Washington, David DeJesus just hits, Hideki Matsui as a DH was a sneaky pick-up, and I even like Cliff Pennington at shortstop... make no mistake, this isn't the Rangers lineup, but they have enough to be competitive...
- Starting Pitching - Here's where Oakland separates themselves... Brett Anderson has Cy Young-type stuff, and he's healthy this year... Trevor Cahill was ridiculous down the stretch in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP on the year), I like Dallas Braden alot, and the underrated Gio Gonzalez won 15 games with a 3.23 ERA last year as well... this is a quietly stacked unit... the wild-card is Rich Harden, but if they get ANYTHING out of him? This is a potentially elite staff, and even without him, it's the best staff in the division...
- Bullpen - Andrew Bailey was great again in 2010... following up his rookie of the year win in 2009 with 25 saves in 28 chances and a 1.47 ERA/0.96 WHIP... elite numbers... he's for real... Joey Devine and Grant Balfour bring the heat in the set-up role, and they've even acquired Brian Fuentes for a little insurance... I like this group a lot...
- Bench - Not fantastic here... Adam Rosales is the utility guy in the INF and he was serviceable in <300>
Just look at that pitching... just look at that pitching.... just look at that pitching....
3. Los Angeles Angels (80-82) - Hmmm... you're thinking this seems low...
- Lineup - There are guys who can hit... but alot of the time, the names are bigger than the production lately (and going forward)... Vernon Wells had a pretty good year last year.. 31 homers would've led the Angels, and it wasn't an aberration... but translate those numbers without the Rogers Centre in Toronto, and they become a little more ordinary... Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu aren't the same guys they were 3 years ago, and they have no pop at catcher now without Mike Napoli... the brightspot? Kendry Morales at 1B is a stud... but there are injury concerns coming off the phantom ACL tear... it isn't a bad unit, but it's not as good as it would've looked in 2008...
- Starting Pitching - Very, very solid... Jered Weaver made the leap in 2010... 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 233 K's... he's a legit #1... I'm skeptical of Dan Haren, but there's no denying he's a front-line starter and he was awesome after coming to LA last year... then there's the rest... Ervin Santana is a giant enigma... he's either fantastic (2.53 in May, 2.89 in July, 2.72 in September) or flat-out dreadful (5.16 ERA in June, 5.59 in August)... Scott Kazmir was below Major-league quality in 2010 (I have NO idea what happened to him), and Joel Piniero will keep you in games, but he's never going to be anything more than a middling guy... there's some wide range here... if Santana and Kazmir had it going at their peak levels? Awesome staff... but count me skeptical...
- Bullpen - Here's where it falls off the cliff... Fernando Rodney has closed games in MLB before... that's a plus, right?... well, he's also the guy who's going to blow saves (14 of 21 in chances last year), and give you 4+ ERA and 1.4-1.5 WHIP... that's bad... Scott Downs is a nice set-up guy and closer insurance, but the rest of the pen is nothing to tell Momma about...
- Bench - Maicer Izturis... Reggie Willits... Brandon Wood... you've heard a ton about all of them before... and none of them are any good... still... I do like Alberto Callaspo who they brought over from Kansas City though... he can play everywhere, and can hit for average...
So there's that... I'm underwhelmed by the Angels... yes, they can spend money by bringing in Vernon Wells, etc.... but are they better? Meh... Give me the pitching from Oakland...
4. Seattle Mariners (70-92) - The M's won 61 last year... man, that's bad.... Here's to the uptick...
- Lineup - Not the strongsuit of the 2011 Mariners... lol... but better than you may think... Miguel Olivo is a severe upgrade over anything they've had at catcher in years, Justin Smoak is an elite prospect who should start hitting at 1B, Chone Figgins is an engine to any lineup, and oh yeah... they have a guy named Ichiro with 200+ hits every season for a decade... I even liked the signing of Jack Cust to DH... yes, he'll strike out 180 times, but he'll also hit 30 homers if you give him full-time AB's and they need the power surge... It's the worst unit in the division, but it's not far off from Oakland...
- Starting Pitching - King Felix may be the best pitcher on the planet... he struck out 232 guys last year, posted a ridiculous 2.27 ERA, and a fantastic 1.06 WHIP... 13 wins? Doesn't sound like a lot... but on any other team, he may have won 20+... he's a stalwart... after that, it gets murky... Jason Vargas was very good in 2010 (3.78 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) but some peripherals like BABIP show he's probably due for a regression... Doug Fister was pretty solid as well, but he's nothing more than a middling rotation guy simply because he can't strike anybody out (93 K's in 171 innings), and the other 2 spots are question marks with the always-tantalizing Erik Bedard (sorry Ryan), and either Luke French or another young guy... Felix is enough to make it respectable, but nothing more...
- Bullpen - It's an unstable closing situation... default closer David Aardsma is still recovering from injury/illness, so Brandon League will likely get the call early in the year... he's pretty capable (sub 3.5 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP last year), but nothing special... and the rest of the pen is underwhelming... let's not keep going...
In short? Seattle isn't very good... but there's help on the way in the form of Dustin Ackley, etc. leading the farm system, and they still have Felix...
That'll do it for the AL West... Stay tuned for Part 2 previewing the AL Central...
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