1. Minnesota Twins (86-76) - I give up... You win, Minnesota....
- Lineup - Joe Mauer is the best catcher on Earth... and one of the best catchers of all-time (there, I said it)... he anchors a pretty strong lineup from top-to-bottom... Justin Morneau is a former AL MVP who was tearing the cover off the ball in 2010 until he had that terrible concussion, but he seems to be nearly back... Delmon Young is a beast (.298, 21 HR, 112 RBI in 2010) who has finally come into his own entering his age 25 season, and there are supporting guys like Denard Span, Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer to provide a steadying influence... One guy to watch is newly imported 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka who has been drawing rave reviews from Twins camp...
- Starting Pitching - Francisco Liriano is a stud... 200 K's last year, very nice ratios, and he's incredibly dominant at times... now an additional year removed from his injury woes, he should be stronger than ever in the #1 slot... Carl Pavano was a wildy pleasant surprise in 2010, winning 17 games with a sub-4 ERA and should be counted on to be fairly effective as long as he's healthy even if the 17 wins (a bit lucky in the peripherals) don't necessarily come... Outside of the those 2, there is a 4-way battle going on for 3 spots between Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, and Brian Duensing... Blackburn is the worst pitcher of the 4 historically, and likely the outsider in the group, but they haven't named the rotation... at any rate, it's a pretty balanced staff with no real weakspots, and should generally be considered above-average...
- Bullpen - This is tricky... Joe Nathan returns from injury and while he was electric as the closer in previous seasons, the Twins acquired Matt Capps late in 2010... Capps had a fantastic year last year (2.47 ERA, 42 saves combined) and may get the opening nod depending on how Nathan looks... That's a pretty darn solid back-end, but they've lost some punch (Jon Rauch, Brian Fuentes) from their middle guys... overall, this is, again, a nice unit...
- Bench - Classic situation where they have too many guys... because of the Kubel/Young/Span/Cuddyer quartet in the outfield AND having Jim Thome returning, there will be an odd-man out everyday, and that helps this bench... Drew Butera is a nice player behind Joe Mauer as well...
I really like Minnesota... it's been a running joke that I refuse to pick them and yet, they win it every year... and I tried everything in my power to stay away, but I just can't... they have the best team...
2. Chicago White Sox (85-77) - Here's looking at you, Gordon Beckham....
- Lineup - Here's the good... there's A LOT of talent in this lineup... Paul Konerko mashed all year last year, they've acquired Adam Dunn who can be penciled in for 40 bombs, Alex Rios came on to pre-terrible form, Gordon Beckham has 1st-round pedigree and started hitting down the stretch, Alexei Ramirez is a big-time talent, and Carlos Quentin was once an MVP candidate... There's also some downside... Beckham struggled mightily early in 2010 and hasn't proven a single thing, Alex Rios has shown himself capable of a stinker, they don't have a 3rd basemen to speak of, and there are some injury questions.... all that being said, it's a pretty darn good selection of guys... the Dunn signing was very big for them, and he doesn't need to play defense (a plus)...
- Starting Pitching - This unit may decide the division... John Danks is wildly underrated... sub-4 ERA the last 3 years, and he's their best pitcher IMO... Gavin Floyd has big-time talent but he's wildly streaky, Mark Buehrle is getting up there in age, and his stuff isn't what it used to be... Jake Peavy is about as big of an injury concern as there's ever been, and Edwin Jackson's numbers don't exactly scream dominant... This could either be a very good unit (if Floyd is on, Peavy is healthy and Buerhle is consistent) or a pretty bad one (if Peavy is hurt, Floyd is the early-2010 version, and Jackson is Jackson)...
- Bullpen - Matt Thornton is a nice closer option, especially considering how bad Bobby Jenks has been at times, recently... Chris Sale is in the set-up role, and he's a young guy with huge upside possibly primed and ready to close, and there are decent vets like Will Ohman and Jesse Crain to fill it out...
- Bench - Adam Dunn gives them some nice flexibility b/c he can play OF in a pinch (badly, but still)... otherwise, the depth isn't great with Mark Teahen and the still-alive Omar Vizquel... nothing to write home about, but again, American League....
This is the type of team that could win 90+ with ease if guys like Beckham, Rios, and Peavy put it together, but I just don't have the same level of confidence in their consistency that I do of the Twins...
3. Detroit Tigers (83-79) - I almost picked Detroit to win this thing....
- Lineup - Oh, Miguel... Miguel Cabrera, that is... He's the 2nd best hitter in the entire league (with regard to Mr. Pujols), but he can't seem to stay out of trouble... a February DUI is the latest blackmark for the Tigers slugger, and while I don't think it will affect his play, it certainly won't help it... This lineup is solid, but not spectacular... new signing Victor Martinez provides the most pop outside of Cabrera (he'll DH and play a little catcher), young OF's Austin Jackson and Ryan Raburn had good years in 2010, Magglio Ordonez can still rake, and I've always been a Carlos Guillen supporter... they won't wow you, but the lineup is more than serviceable...
- Starting Pitching - Sneaky solid... Justin Verlander is an absolute beast, a perennial Cy Young candidate, and a top-15 pitcher in the majors... after him, Max Scherzer is a high-upside #2 that struck out nearly 200 guys last year and won 12 games... Rick Porcello in the 3 hole took a step back after a breakout rookie season, but was pretty darn good after the AS break last year... Phil Coke and Brad Penny round it out... neither are spectacular, but Penny was very, very good in STL last year pre-injury and Coke has shown himself to be capable...
- Bullpen - This is one of those fun teams where the best reliever isn't the closer... Joaquin Benoit is the newly signed set-up man who is coming off a season where he posted a 1.34 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, and 75 Ks in 60.1 innings... the guy is a beast... he'll be setting up for Jose Valverde, who is very solid (saving 26 of 29 last year) and a veteran closer... outside of those 2 it's pretty sketchy... Joel Zumaya returns (good luck with that), and guys like Daniel Schelereth (son of ESPN's Mark Schelereth) are being counted on...
- Bench - Brennan Boesch is a very, very nice 4th outfielder, and Scott Sizemore is still around as a utility guy on the infield... the important guy, though? Catcher Alex Avila who will have to play a lot of games in order to keep V-Mart out of the field...
Stay out of trouble, Miguel....
4. Cleveland Indians (75-87) - A lot of questions to be answered....
- Lineup - Good things first... Shin-Soo Choo is an elite outfielder in this league... he went .300/22/90 in only 144 games last year, and he's the best player on the roster... Carlos Santana is the guy you don't hear as much about as, say, a Buster Posey, but he's a top-5 catcher in the Majors when healthy, and he should be 100% to start the season... after that? Questions galore... former stud Grady Sizemore is said to be 100% healthy, but was pretty bad pre-injury the last couple of years, and is a candidate to hit .240... former top prospect Matt LaPorta is already having job security issues in spring at 1B... Travis Hafner stinks (sorry Travis), and outside of Asdrubal Cabrera, the rest of the lineup is fairly impotent....
- Starting Pitching - It isn't good... I've always been high on Fausto Carmona, and we know he has it in him (this is a former 19-game winner), but he's not a dominant #1 right now... and after that, it gets ugly in a hurry... Justin Masterson is talented, but doesn't have electric stuff, and then, the 3-4-5 is currently Jeanmar Gomez, Carlos Carrasco, and Josh Tomlin... wait for it... wait for it... you don't know who any of those guys are...
- Bullpen - I really like Chris Perez... he posted a 1.71 ERA with 23 saves and 9 holds last year... now he's the full-time guy and he should be very good... Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis both had very good 2010 years (sub 3 ERA's), and should prove to be very capable as well...
- Bench - Shelley Duncan... Michael Brantley... Austin Kearns... Lou Marson.... Yeah...
It's not exactly the mid-90's right now in Cleveland....
5. Kansas City Royals (70-92) - Hey... they won't lose 100...
- Lineup - I like going positive first... Billy Butler is a beast... legit .300 hitter and while the power hasn't totally come yet, there's reason to believe it can... at worst, he's a 50-double guy... Mike Aviles is a .300 hitter as well who can play multiple positions, and Kila Ka'aihue has hit at every level, and now has a chance to play everyday at 1B... Now the questions begin... once-prized prospect Alex Gordon returns.. in left field now as opposed to 3B, and most people have given up on him... Jeff Francoeur has the everyday right field job, and while I haven't given up on him as a player, everyone else has... and this is the worst part... Kansas City is currently listing Melky Cabrera as their started center fielder... I don't have enough energy to rant on that... let's hope they come to their senses and bury him behind Lorenzo Cain and even Gregor Blanco...
- Starting Pitching - Zack Greinke isn't walking through that door... Jeff Francis headlines this motley crew, and he's really the only one that's enjoyed any sustained success back in his time with Colorado... Kyle Davies is a capable pitcher who's just been inconsistent/injured in recent year, and then there's some upside with Luke Hochevar and Vin Mazzaro... I'm trying...
- Bullpen - The best player on the roster is closer Joakim Soria... he's 115 out of 124 in saves the past 3 seasons with a sub 2 ERA and a strikeout rate of over 10 per 9... he's elite... the issue is getting the lead to him...
- Bench - They have 4 major league outfielders (none of whom is Melky Cabrera) so someone should have to come off the pine... also, Wilson Betemit (who actually had a nice 2010) will do the utility damage in the infield, and former Atlanta Brave C Brayan Pena is around...
Sorry KC...
That'll do it for the AL Central... Stay tuned for Part 3 covering the vaunted AL East...
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