2011 MLB Preview Part 5: NL Central

Greetings all... The Central should be interesting...

1. Milwaukee Brewers (87-75) - Bit of a limb...

• Lineup - Ryan Braun is a top-5 outfielder in the league... pencil him in for .300/25/100 and go about your day... Prince Fielder is in a contract year at first base, making him a prime trade possibility BUT with Milwaukee contending, there's virtually no way they can justify moving him, and he's due for 40 homers... elsewhere, there's Casey McGehee who went .285/23/104 last year and has knocked the cover off the ball since arriving in 2009... I also like Corey Hart in RF (who's banged up right now) coming off his breakout year.. Rickie Weeks is a beast at 2B as well when healthy... the weakspot? Yuniesky Betancourt is an abominable option as a starting SS... I can't even justify it...


• Starting Pitching - Gallardo and Greinke is a heckuva 1-2 combo... but I think this staff makes or breaks with Shaun Marcum in the middle... he's a high-upside guy who was very good in 2010 but has some injury risk.. I personally think he makes a bit of a leap in the NL and makes this staff formidable... Randy Wolf in the 4 spot is solid, and Chris Narveson is a "meh" 5th guy...


• Bullpen - Interesting unit here... the loss of Trevor Hoffman is actually a GOOD thing... he was very, very bad in 2010, but outside of him, the bullpen was serviceable... John Axford pitched very well and returns in the closer role, and they have vets like Latroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito at the back-end... watch out for Manny Parra... he was a dreadful starter, but reports are that he has it really dialed up and could be dominant in a shorter role...


• Bench - Mark Kotsay and Craig Counsell anchor the bench... two uber-utility guys who are pros but don't scare you... George Kottaras as the backup C, and Mat Gamel are the other contributors... meh...

To the defending Central champs...

2. Cincinnati Reds (84-78) - Ah... Dusty Baker...

• Lineup - Best unit in the division... Joey Votto is an MVP-candidate beast at 1B, Brandon Phillips is a top-5 guy at second, and I really like the Stubbs/Bruce combo in the outfield... both with tremendous upside... there are questions though... Scott Rolen is ancient, they have a SS battle including Edgar Renteria (lol), and Johnny Gomes (who can mash) looks like he may play every day...


• Starting Pitching - Lots of talent... Cueto was their anchor last year, but he's banged up in Spring and there's some worry there... Volquez has elite stuff, and should be healthy, and Bronson Arroyo is steady, steady, steady... on the back-end there's a 3-way battle between Homer Bailey, Travis Wood, and Mike Leake for two spots...


• Bullpen - The best pitcher in the bullpen isn't the closer... it's Aroldis Chapman... but I do understand their unwillingness to insert him with big money being paid to Francisco Cordero... Cordero isn't awful, but isn't electrifying at this point... I do like Nick Masset as well down there


• Bench - Not real deep... Fred Lewis, Miguel Cairo, and Ryan Hanigan (at Catcher) are the guys most likely to get consistent time... Lewis is a one-dimensional speed guy, and Cairo is run-of-the-mill...

3(t). Chicago Cubs (80-82) - I actually like the Cubs...

• Lineup - Carlos Pena was their big splash, and can be penciled in for 35 bombs in that ballpark... the key? He may hit .195... if he hits .240-.250 like I think he can, he's an upgrade over what Lee gave them last year... Aramis Ramirez is back healthy, and really picked it up down the stretch in 2010... capable of 30 HRs there... They're fairly good up the middle with Soto (like him alot), Castro (up and comer), Dewitt (meh), and the ever-underrated Marlon Byrd in center.... There are some questions (cough, Soriano), but should be pretty solid...


• Starting Pitching - For starters, I loved the Matt Garza pick-up... coming to NL is one thing, but LEAVING the AL East helps doubly... he's got great stuff, and I like a big-time rebound from him... Dempster is extemely solid at the top, and you know you'll get at least average stuff from Randy Wells... the x-factor is obviously Carlos Zambrano... he was absolutely awful at times in 2010, but pitched well in stretches too... he's the key


• Bullpen - Marmol is electric... he walks everyone in the world, and needs to get that under control, but it's still a sub-2.00 ERA guy... the set-up guys are spotty.. Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija (who still should've played football) are the key guys...


• Bench - Kosuke Fukodome as the 4th outfielder is actually not terrible... Jeff Baker is an ultra-utility guy who can play any infield slot, and they have Koyie Hill or Max Ramirez behind Soto... at least they're versatile?...

Man, that Wainwright injury...

3(t). St. Louis Cardinals (80-82) - See above... Wainwright.. sigh...

• Lineup - Albert Pujols is the best player on the planet... no argument here... the "distraction" of his contract negotiation is violently over-stated, and he can be penciled in for .320/40/120... Matt Holliday is about as money in the bank as it gets from the outfield as well... and I really like Colby Rasmus in center... there are some age questions (Lance Berkman), power outages (Schumaker and Theriot up the middle), and still unproven guys (Freese), but it's a capable lineup based on the 3-4-5 alone...


• Starting Pitching - What was once the strength of the team is now a relative weakness... Chris Carpenter is an elite starter when healthy and he seems to be so... but there's always risk, and he's being asked to carry the staff now with Wainwright on the shelf... I'm VERY high on Jaime Garcia, but he had a significant innings increase and needs to be watched closely... after that? Yikes... Dave Duncan has done nice reclamation projects on Lohse and Jake Westbrook, but neither are dominant-type guys, and now, they rely on Kyle McLellan to make 25 starts out of the 5-hole... I think Wainwright's loss cost them 5-7 wins off the top..


• Bullpen - Ryan Franklin continues to get the job done at the closer spot, and he's solid... the remainder of the pen is pretty sketchy/unproven outside of Jason Motte... it's definitely a question mark..


• Bench - Jon Jay is the 4th outfielder, and former Twin Nick Punto is the utility infielder... they could do worse... I'm not a believer (in any way) in Gerald Laird as the backup catcher though...

And the drop-off...

5. Houston Astros (73-89) - At least they're better....

• Lineup - Hunter Pence had his breakout year in 2010 and anchors the lineup... Carlos Lee isn't what he used to be (he's still fat though), but can be penciled in for productivity whether he's playing 1st or a sketchy LF... Michael Bourn may be the fastest guy in the league, and he'll steal 50 rolling out of bed... I even like Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace at the corners for their upside... but there's really no one that scares you at all, and guys like Clint Barmes and Bill Hall are going to get 600 ABs... Pass...


• Starting Pitching - Wandy Rodriguez is an absolute stud... he was one of the best pitchers in the MLB down the stretch last year, and has electrifying stuff... Brett Myers had the best year of his career in 2010 coming out of nowhere to be great, but I don't necessarily trust it... outside of that? J.A. Happ is young and has been good, but has injury concerns, Bud Norris has an obscene strikeout rate, but has never been particularly effective, and they're starting Nelson Figueroa... yikes...


• Bullpen - Brandon Lyon has saved games in the Majors... that's the nicest thing I can say about this bullpen... I do like Wilton Lopez a little, but come on...


• Bench - On the bright side, a lot of these guys played a ton last year... Jeff Keppinger can play anywhere, and he had a good year in 2010... no power though... Tommy Manzella is an elite fielder who can't hit, and Michaels/Bourgeois are average at best in the outfield...

That was fun... this won't be...

6. Pittsburgh Pirates (66-96) - Jeez...

• Lineup - This is the part of the team that isn't awful... Andrew McCutcheon is an elite-level OF who can do it all.. Pedro Alvarez has 40-homer power and is a top prospect, and they've already gotten good production from Neil Walker, Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata... even guys like Lyle Overbay and Chris Snyder are capable major-leaguers... it's really an average offense (which is good for Pittsburgh)...


• Starting Pitching - The wheels come off here... Paul Maholm (who I actually like), Ross Ohlendorf, Kevin Correia (outside of Petco, eesh), James McDonald, Charlie Morton... what do they have in common? None of them are even #3 starters in the majors right now... that's an issue...


• Bullpen - Joel Hanrahan starts as the closer... he's average... capable of saving games semi-effectively, but the job will eventually be Evan Meek's... great arm on that kid... outside of that, Braves import Chris resop, and the famous Scott Olsen are the best arms... wow...


• Bench - Ryan Doumit and Matt Diaz are very good bench bats... both guys can hit but not really field... they also have John Bowker to play outfield D, and Josh Rodriguez on the infield... I'm done...

There it is... stay tuned for Part 6 on the NL East...