1. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69) - By the skin of their teeth...
- Lineup - First of all, I had the Phillies at 99 wins in my initial projection... kinda running away with things here... so why the change?... health in the lineup... Chase Utley is a gargantuan question mark... there have been wide-ranging reports like "maybe out for the year" to "ready for mid-April"... I have no idea... so I'm splitting the difference, and assuming he gets 400-ish AB's... if he gets that, I think they win the division... less than that? Flip the top 2... anyway... also Philly has an injury to Dominic Brown (who they are counting on), regression from Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins for the last 2+ years, and age (upon age) in left field with Ibanez... Victorino and Polanco are who we know they are... and I like Ruiz, but the lineup isn't what is winning them the division...
- Starting Pitching - This group, however, will win it for Philly... They have 4 of the top 25 pitchers in the league... which is INSANE when you consider it... Roy Halladay is the best pitcher alive... he goes deeper into games than anyone not named Felix, and he's a horse.. Cliff Lee has the best control of an elite guy since Maddux (high praise), sports the lowest WHIP in the league, and is a rock... Oswalt and Hamels are both upper-echelon guys who have been pretty consistent (remarkably so in the case of Oswalt), and are fantastic 3 and 4 guys... the only concern is #5 Kyle Kendrick or Joe Blanton... Blanton is the guy I'd go with because he's a vet with decent career numbers (4.30 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).. nothing to write home about, but Kendrick has higher blow-up potential IMO... best staff in the league...
- Bullpen - Not a strength here... Brad Lidge was actually pretty decent in 2010 (2.96 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) but has injury concerns heading to the season... Ryan Madson is the bright-spot here, and is the best pitcher in the entire pen, but seems to implode when he's the closer, so they'll leave him in the set-up role where he's best (2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP last year)... the rest of the rotation isn't awful, but doesn't stand out... they got great production from Jose Contreras' corpse last year, I've always liked JC Romero, and they'll have whoever loses the 5th starter job in the long relief role...
- Bench - Ross Gload, Wilson Valdez, Brian Schneider... maybe even Luis Castillo... forgive my apathy, but it's not a great bench... it will be much better when Brown returns and they have him and Francisco as options in the OF...
2. Atlanta Braves (92-70) - Just that close... forgive me for the length of this one...
- Lineup - Best Braves lineup in a while... new addition Dan Uggla fits in the middle of the lineup with the power right-handed bat the Braves have been coveting for a few years... the heart-of-the-order core of Heyward, McCann, Uggla is very solid, and Martin Prado has proven he's a .300+ hitter at the top of the lineup (somewhere)... there are 3 question mark positions... Freddie Freeman is a rookie playing everyday at 1st base, and while I haven't heard/seen many negative things about Freeman from ANYONE, it's crucial to remember that it's asking a lot of a rookie to play everyday at 1st base for a supposed title contender... tempered expectations should take hold, and I'd gladly take a .280/15/75 type of season... Chipper Jones is another one... we've all been around with Chipper... he's a former MVP, only 2 years removed from hitting .360+ and flirting with .400 well into the year, and you know he's good for .400+ OBP... that's the good... the bad is his age (38, turning 39 mid-April), his injury history (consistently banged up even in his prime, and coming off ACL surgery), and his power outage (28 total home runs in his last 967 plate appearances (238 games).... My personal take is that Fredi Gonzalez should hit Chipper lead-off... and while I know that is being laughed at in some circles, he's the best OBP guy on the team (by far), you're not getting much speed there regardless (Prado doesn't steal bases either), and Chipper just simply doesn't have the power needed to hit in his customary #3 spot anymore...but at any rate, if Chipper plays 120-130 games (or more), I feel pretty good about 3rd base... if he doesn't? Trouble... the 3rd question mark is Nate McLouth... much ballyhooed after the acquisition from Pittsburgh, he's been abysmal for ATL... hitting just .229 over 169 games with the Braves, and while his strong walk rate keeps his OBP in non-embarrassing territory, the average is a mess... that said, if he hits like the 2009 version (.256 avg, 20 homers combined from PIT/ATL) he's a more than serviceable outfield option... in the end, you have 4 big-time hitters to count on, 1 more possible one in Chipper, and the only black-hole (IMO) is Alex Gonzalez, but you can take that one from your shortstop as long as he doesn't kick it around defensively... Like it... there are concerns about how the lineup shakes out, but the pieces are nice
- Starting Pitching - Depth is the word I'd use... Tim Hudson is the #1 starter IMO... the guy's career record is identical to the legendary Sandy Koufax (wow) and Huddy reminded everyone of how fantastic he was in Oakland with his 2010 year (1.15 WHIP, 2.83 ERA, 17 wins)... he's the rock... Tommy Hanson is the big-timer... career 3.16 ERA with 1.18 WHIP is insane for a guy who's 24 and has only 2 big-league seasons, but Hanson struck out 173 in 202 innings, and he'll likely have an even higher workload in 2011... he was fantastic after the all-star break (2.52 ERA) and don't let the 10-11 record fool you, he was great last year... Derek Lowe is overpaid... we get it... but the guy is above-average... 16 wins, 4.00 ERA, and there's something to be said for a guy you know is pitching 33+ starts a year (every year since 2002)... he's not a #1 starter, but you can't do much better as a 3/4... Jair Jurrjens is the enigma for me... there's a divide in the Braves fanbase about how good he actually is... he was unbelievable in 2009 (2.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 215 innings) but the underlying splits indicate it should have been in the 3.50/1.30 range... he doesn't strike anyone out (390 K's in 550 innings in a braves uniform), and while most people blame injury for 2010, he was pretty bad pre-injury as well... I'm sort of in the middle... I think he's a mid-to-high 3's type of ERA guy with a WHIP around the low 1.3's... not bad at all, and that's your 3/4 guy, that's great, but the notion that he's "proven" as a big-time guy is off-base for me... the #5 battle is on between Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor... 2 young guys on very different paths... Minor was a 1st-round pick out of college who fast-tracked up, and Beachy was an unknown who burst on the scene with Minor league success... one key issue is the fact that Minor can be sent down to save service time, while Beachy can't... both are relative unknowns, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect average production from the 5 spot, and that's all you need.... I almost forgot the embarrassment of depth on the 40-man as well... Kenshin Kawakami (as of posting) is still under contract, and while he isn't any good, he'd be more than replacement-level as a 5th starter when you look around the league... Rodrigo Lopez is under Braves control as well, and has served as a functional guy in the past, AND Kris Medlen (who was good in 2010) is recovering from Tommy John and could be seen in August/September...
- Bullpen - Some nice arms here... ATL will break camp with a closer "rotation" of Craig Kimbrel and "everyday" Jonny Venters... Kimbrel was ridiculous at times in 2010, leading the MAJORS in strikeout rate (17+ per 9 innings), and an ERA of 0.44 in 20.2 innings... it's a small sample, but he's got electric stuff in the closer mold... the only issue is walks... he's got 16 in 20.2 innings, which is horrendous, and a walk rate over 4.5 in the minors... for Venters, you can't argue with 1.95 ERA and 93 K's in 83 innings from 2010... if he wasn't left-handed, I firmly believe he'd be the closer, but the way they set it up is nice IMO... the "closer" role is overrated because of the save stat, and you can't do much better than playing the matchups with this type of arm... Moylan and O'Flaherty return as the primary middle guys, and they are above-average... add in George Sherrill who KILLS lefties, but can't get any righties out (hence the bad overall ERA, but look at the splits), and Scott Linebrink for another steady veteran, and that's a heckuva 6-man core...
- Bench - Interesting stuff here... good stuff first... David Ross is the best backup catcher in baseball... he's known for his defense, but has an OPS of .880 since joining ATL... that's insane... and Eric Hinske can play 1st, Left field, or 3rd (in a pinch) and hit 11 bombs in just 281 ABs last year... then it gets tricky... Joe Mather was brought in from STL and we all assumed he'd have a roster spot, but he's been bad in the Spring, and he's a guy with just 193 career ABs... Jordan Schafer may make the team as the 4th outfielder because he can play big-time defense and has a pedigree, but he has never hit in the Majors at all... Diory Hernandez is a virtual lock because he can play shortstop, but he has a career .424 OPS in 94 ABs... Brandon Hicks can play D and run... but that's it... Someone named Ed Lucas is on the radar because he plays EVERYWHERE but he's 28 and never sniffed the majors.. and then there's Brooks Conrad... Mr. Uber-clutch all year at the plate in 2010, but the center of the defensive calamity that undid the team in the Giants series... they want his switch-hitting bat, but he can't defend a single position at an average level... Bench make-up is definitely worth watching...
Well, that was fun... lol... moving on...
3. Florida Marlins (84-78) - A step back, but a decent club...
- Lineup - Best Shortstop in the game, and top-10 player in Hanley Ramirez to lead the way... pencil him in for .300+, 30, 100... okay then... there's less pop than last year with the loss of Uggla, but they should make up some of that power in year 2 of Mike Stanton (who could hit 40 HRs), and maybe some from Gaby Sanchez in year 2 also... I like Logan Morrison alot as a guy who will likely hit over .300, move runners, and provide some stability, the Omar Infante addition would be better if they didn't have to play him every day at second (negating his #1 asset of positional flexibility), and they can't be serious with Wes Helms at 3B... yikes... anyway, I like Coghlan and Sanchez b/c you know what you're getting too... not a lot of "wow" but Hanley is a beast, and the world loves Stanton
- Starting Pitching - Could easily be a strength... Josh Johnson was Cy Young caliber in 2010, and while there's a little injury concern, if he's healthy, he's a top-15 to 20 guy in baseball... Ricky Nolasco is tantalizingly inconsistent, but capable of a 3.52/1.10/15 win year like 2008... I love the Javy Vazquez signing... he was a wreck in NYY, but the guy kills the NL, and last time he was seen in this division, he was a Cy Young contender in 2009 (2.87 ERA, 1.03 whip with ATL)... and then there's Anibal Sanchez, a guy with tremendous stuff who FINALLY stayed healthy in 2010 and there were results... he won 13 games with a respectable 3.55 ERA, and if he's their #4, that's nice... Chris Volstad rounds it out, and he's a capable #5...
- Bullpen - This went badly in 2010... Leo Nunez had a nice year as the closer (he just couldn't beat ATL) with 30 saves and a 3.46 ERA, but 30 of 38 isn't the best rate, and he's middling in that role... they've upgraded with Mike Dunn (who they got in the Uggla deal) on the lefty-side... he's got big-time stuff and has been good since coming up...they uncovered a jewel in Clay Hensley last year who had 22 holds, and a 2.16 ERA in the set-up role... but outside of that? Cast-offs and unproven youngsters...
- Bench - John Baker is a decent backup catcher... Emilio Bonafacio had a great week to start 2010 (lol), and he's really, really fast... but he can't hit... or field... and Scott Cousins is their 4th OF... it's not real deep...
4. New York Mets (76-86) - Bah...
- Lineup - Well, this is most certainly the best part of this roster... David Wright is the league's best 3B in my opinion (sorry Mr. Longoria), Jose Reyes is still an elite SS when he's on 2 legs, they have bright-spot guys in Ike Davis and Angel Pagan (who had a breakout last year), and that's before you get to Jason Bay who is overrated, yes, but still an above-average guy in left field despite the contract... same goes for Carlos Beltran... if you get him on the field? Even in a reduced role, the guy's gonna hit.... there aren't many weaknesses... Daniel Murphy has been a major-league hitter before at 2B... Catcher is an unknown, but they seem to like Josh Thole... alas, it's a pretty good unit barring catastrophic injury (which has happened before)...
- Starting Pitching - Uhh... this is a catastrophe... Johan Santana isn't walking through that door at least until mid-Summer (if at all) and there's not much to write home about... Mike Pelfrey was good in 2010 with an ERA of 3.66 but he profiles as a mid-rotation guy because he can't strike out anyone (113 in 204 innings)... Jon Niese had his moments last year and had a 3.43 ERA in his first 20 starts, but tired greatly... he's solid... after that... yeah... RA Dickey was a pleasant surprise last year, but has no track record to suggest that'll continue, and knuckleballers fluctuate wildly... Chris Young is Chris Young... he's always hurt... always... and their 5th starter is Chris Capuano... good night...
- Bullpen - K-Rod is back... and hopefully not so angry... he's a proven 40-save guy and that's a nice thing... Bobby Parnell and Manny Acosta have proven to be semi-effective down there, and I like Pat Misch... it's not a horrible bullpen by any means... but they need K-Rod functioning for a full season, and that's certainly not a lock...
- Bench - Ronny Paulino... Luis Hernandez... Brad Emaus... Scott Hairston... and maybe even the immortal Willie Harris... Hurray!
5. Washington Nationals (72-90) - The basement...
- Lineup - Definitely not the weakness... they've basically swapped Adam Dunn for Jayson Werth and Adam Laroche... say what you want about the Werth contract (it's a bad one), he'll still be a very good player in 2011... and LaRoche is a guy you can pencil in for 25-30 homers, a respectable average, and he won't kill you anywhere... Zimmerman is an elite 3B who may be the best defender in the league at his position, and he'll hit for big-time numbers... after that, some questions... Ian Desmond is a big-time talent, but hasn't hit at the MLB level yet, same goes for Danny Espinosa at 2B... Pudge is about a thousand years old, Nyjer Morgan is a certified lunatic (lol) who can run, and run, and run, but isn't the best hitter... and the pundits love Mike Morse as an everyday guy in LF for the first time, but again, unproven...
- Starting Pitching - The Strasburg blow hurts... there just isn't a lot to grab on to here... Livan Hernandez was a blessing for them in 2010, but it's LIVAN HERNANDEZ... anybody counting on a repeat is out of their mind IMO... Jordan Zimmerman is an elite prospect, but is (again) coming off injury... the rest of the rotation is Jason Marquis, Tom Gorzelanny, and John Lannan... not inspiring...
- Bullpen - A lot of talent here... Drew Storen is the "closer of the future" but hasn't been anointed yet for 2011... he's a big-time talent who they've been grooming, and he's got great stuff... Tyler Clippard led the MLB in relief innings last year, and was very good in them... Stammen and Burnett are nice options too... but the depth isn't quite there yet for long relief, etc...
- Bench - Roger Bernadina is their 4th outfielder, and has significant upside... big-time speed guy who can play anywhere... Jerry Hairston and Alberto Gonzalez man the utility roles with good gloves... and Wilson Ramos as the backup C... I've seen worse benches...
There it is... Stay tuned for the 7th and final part with my league-wide predictions, playoff stuff, etc...
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