Tuesday, March 8, 2011

2011 MLB Preview Part 3: AL East

Okay... So I lied about the upcoming "daily" post... forgive me... and instead, be indulged with Part 3 of the MLB Preview... Enjoy...

1. Boston Red Sox (97-65) - Best team in the AL for me...


  • Lineup - Man, this is a pretty impressive unit... the duo of newly acquired superstars in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez is pretty scary... Crawford is a 5-tool guy who will steal 60 bases if you let him, and Gonzalez moves from the worst hitter's park in the league, to one of the better ones (especially for a lefty)... add them to the existing core of Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, and Ortiz? Special unit... there are 2 spots of concern.... the catcher's spot of Saltalamacchia and Varitek is not one I'd expect a ton from, and the shortstop battle is ongoing between Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie... either one of them will be at least league average, so it's not too much of a concern... I think I may like this lineup even better than the more vaunted Yankees version...

  • Starting Pitching - Here's the key for the Sox... we know they're going to hit... there's just too much talent for them not to... but the pitching has questions... Jon Lester is a bonafied stud, and there's not a lot of risk... Cy Young candidate... After that, it gets fun... Josh Beckett (former World Series MVP, blah, blah blah) looks to be primed and ready in Spring but is coming off the worst season of his career with an ERA over 5... the same is true for John Lackey, but there were much more encouraging signs for Lackey (still threw 210 innings, sub 4 ERA after the break)... Clay Buchholz had his breakout in 2010 and should be expected to be above-average, but the strikeout rate is pretty low (120 Ks in 173 innings), and I'm not sure a 2.33 ERA is sustainable... at any rate, he's a good pitcher... the 5th spot is the crapshoot... Dice-K... the "national treasure" (lol) was horrendous in both 2009 and 2010 when he was even pitching and memories of his 18-3 year in 2008 are fading... they have Wakefield for insurance though...

  • Bullpen - Papelbon anchors the back-end... but I'm not sure he's the best pitcher down there anymore... young gun Daniel Bard sported a sub-2.00 ERA and electric stuff last year... also, they signed Bobby Jenks for insurance, and bring back Hideki Okajima and Dan Wheeler... very nice unit here...

  • Bench - Pretty darn deep for an AL team... Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald are serviceable in the outfield, whoever loses the SS battle (Lowrie or Scutaro) is very nice, and either catcher would be a fine backup...

They should cruise IMO...



2. Tampa Bay Rays (88-74) - I just heard the Yankees fans gasping from here...



  • Lineup - I'm not someone that's going to tell you how they won't miss Carl Crawford all that much... because they will miss him dearly... but this is such a deep roster that they can patch it up a bit... Evan Longoria is a top-2 3B in the league with David Wright (sorry A-Rod)... BJ Upton is a boom-or-bust guy, but even when he "busts", he'll steal 40-50 bases and hit 20 bombs... Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez can both still hit... so even if they both miss significant time and can't field? Just need to patch them together for one spot... and do-everything guy Ben Zobrist is someone I'm really high on... not a great unit, but serviceable at least...

  • Rotation - Here's where they separate from the Yankees... David Price is a beast in the #1 starter mold, and I don't expect a fall-off... Wade Davis had a 3.28 ERA after the break last year and has huge upside... Jeremy Hellickson was the #1 prospect pitcher in the majors last year and now takes over a full rotation spot after being very effective in spot duty... Jeff Niemann and James Shields round out the rotation, and while they aren't spectacular by any means, they are significantly more solid than the back-end for the Yanks...

  • Bullpen - Jake McGee... a name that AL East fans will know soon enough... the young pitcher is the front-runner for the closer job in Tampa following Soriano's departure... he's got elite stuff, and was dominant in his 8 outings last year in the Majors.. following him are some solid vets like Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, JP Howell, etc... it's not an elite pen, but it's been overblown on falling off the table...

  • Bench - So, so deep... they have 6 outfield options with Damon, Ramirez, Upton, Zobrist, Joyce, Jennings that are all quality, a nice backup catcher in Kelly Shoppach, and the versality of guys like Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez to play multiple spots... love it...

There it is...



3. New York Yankees (86-76) - Mass hysteria!....



  • Lineup - Well, you know they've got bats... the vaunted infield of A-Rod/Jeter/Cano/Teixeira is in tact, but let me just do this PSA right now... the best player on that infield? Also the least discussed... Robinson Cano is a better baseball player than any of the other 3 at this point... just thought you should know... Cano is the best 2nd basemen alive after a ridiculous .319/29/109/103 stat line last year... anyway... age is the big issue here... Jeter fell off a lot in 2010, A-Rod is slowly declining, Posada has already declined to the point where he's pretty much DH-only, and they signed Andruw Jones to be their 4th OF... yikes... Granderson/Swisher/Gardner is decent out there, but none of them will hit for average, and with the exception of Gardner's speed, they aren't table-setting for the big guns...

  • Starting Pitching - Other than shear age, this is the big concern... Sabathia is a horse.. we don't even need to discuss him... but after that... wow... I do like Phil Hughes, and he was very good last year early but his ERA ballooned north of 4 by the end of the year, and he's not over-powering... the 3 through 5 is woeful... AJ Burnett can't be trusted (as any Yankee fan knows), but he has to pitch, and the back-end is currently Ivan Nova and either Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, or Sergio Mitre... this is the Yankees!... It's an abomination and it can't be overlooked... it's the single biggest visible weakness I can remember the Yanks having since the late 90's run...

  • Bullpen - This is a strength... Mariano Rivera never ages somehow... and as much as the caveat needs to be inserted that he WILL at some point fall off, I'm tired of predicting it every year... Rafael Soriano is violently overpaid at $13 million per, but if he's your set-up guy? You're in fantastic shape... he's elite in that role... elsewhere is uninspiring with guys like Feliciano and Joba, but the back 2 is enough...

  • Bench - Andruw Jones... Ramiro Pena... Francisco Cervilli/Russell Martin.... Not a lot to get excited about here... but again, American league... the only issue is with the relative age of the regulars, these guys may have to see extended time...

Feel free to kill me on this one... but I'm taking my stance against Ivan Nova, AJ Burnett, Sergio Mitre, and company...



4. Toronto Blue Jays (77-85) - The cliff....



  • Lineup - Here's a little Blue Jays rant... Okay... you've just rid yourself (somehow) of the Vernon Wells contract albatross that no one thought you'd ever be able to move.. congratulations!... How are you going to celebrate?... Oh, I'm going to give a giant 5-year extension to Jose Bautista because he had one fluke power year in a hitter's park, WHEN I DON'T HAVE TO PAY HIM FOR ANOTHER YEAR... what are you thinking!?... Anyway... This is a weird lineup... there's so much power... Bautista, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Travis Snider, Edwin Encarnacion, JP Arencibia... all guys with pretty high power ceilings... but the issue is, I don't think there's a single one of them that you can absolutely count on... Bautista could be a 1-year aberration, Hill hit sub-.200 last year... Adam Lind has shown glimpses, but nothing sustained, Snider and Encarnacion are sort of middling, and Arencibia is a rookie... there are makings of a potentially big-time lineup here... but there's no way to really gauge it... especially when the peripherals aren't even guys you can pencil in (cough, Yunel Escobar)....

  • Starting Pitching - This could actually be a brightspot... Ricky Romero was excellent in 2010 and there's no reason to think he regresses... Brandon Morrow has always been an elite prospect, and there were signs (like the 20-K extravaganza) that he's putting it together... Brett Cecil is a nice, young pitcher, and Kyle Drabek (the prize of the Roy Halladay deal) has some very nice upside... this is another development year for them as they are all young, but it's definitely competitive...

  • Bullpen - Interested to see how this shakes out... They have 4 guys with closing experience... the front-runner for that job seems to be Frank Francisco, but Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, and Octavio Dotel have all done it before with varying degrees of success... do the math, and it's a pretty good overall unit when you have 4 guys with closer profiles...

  • Bench - Not a whole lot of appreciable depth here, but they have interchangeable parts in Bautista, Encarnacion, and Rivera that can help them out a little...

Another year or 2 away... if they stop spending 8 figures on Jose Bautista and the like...



5. Baltimore Orioles (75-87) - There honestly isn't a bad team in this division...



  • Lineup - Actually really nice here... the O's went and spent a lot of money on offense in the winter... Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, and JJ Hardy add to their existing young core of Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters to form a really nice lineup... There seems to be a conflict as to whether they are building for the future by playing youngsters or trying to win now i.e. signing high-priced vets, but it makes them better this year and they haven't blocked any of their high-level guys... the key to the offense is Brian Roberts... the former top-3 second basemen has been battling injury issues, but looks to be 100% and he makes their offense go when he's getting on base and running at the top... an underrated unit...

  • Starting Pitching - Lots of talent, not a whole lot of experience at this level... Jeremy Guthrie and Brian Matusz are the default 1 and 2... Guthrie has been a solid major-leaguer for a while now, and he will continue to be that... Matusz is their prized prospect who had a nice debut in 2010 (10 wins, 4.32 ERA)... they've taken a shot at Justin Duchscherer.. the highly-talented former A's pitcher who just can't stay on the field with injury... and they have Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, two of their home-grown prospects, at the back-end to get them some experience...

  • Bullpen - Mike Gonzalez, Koji Uehara, and Kevin Gregg are in a battle for the closer spot.. Gonzalez is paid the most, Uehara has the best stuff, and Gregg has the most recent closer experience (in TOR)... I don't think it matters a whole lot...

  • Bench - Felix Pie is a solid 4th OF... Jake Fox has 20-HR upside if nothing else, and I've always liked Cesar Izturis... it could be worse...

Not quite there... but they won't lose 100 this year barring anything catastrophic...


There's the AL East... Stay tuned as we head to the NL later in the month...

1 comment:

mitch moreland for president said...

Okay I like your predictions.
I would have to say Sox, Yanks, Orioles, Rays, BJ tho.

One thing you have not accounted for is coaching (management), or is that overrated in BB?

I expect to see Tex and A-rod have improved years, as well as a big bounce back for AJ. It will be close between Sox and Yanks as always.

You are on the money with Cano. I hope he can repeat his MVP type year (for his sake, not rangers)

I really don't expect the Rangers to win the AL west.
I see Angels, Oakland, Rangers, Seattle (and that is harsh on Seattle).

Central: I tend to agree with your prediction, perhaps placing Detroit and Chicago the other way round.
This will be the season the overrated, but entertaining Ozzie flips his lid, gets suspended and eventually fired.

Kansas seems to have traded one ace for a pair of sixes, a bag of balls, and three hot dogs. They should be expelled. Every year I think they will break out - but not this one..

PS did you see Michael young is hitting .675?