1. Colorado Rockies (88-74) - Going against the defending champs...
- Lineup - This is a pretty nice NL unit... Obviously, they have two elite players in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez... both were legit MVP-level guys in 2010 and there's no reason (other than Tulo's injury history) to expect significant regression in 2011.... that's the good... the rest is kind of murky... Ian Stewart and Chris Iannetta are both guys with 25-homer power and batting average issues... Dexter Fowler is a 5-tool type of guy with high-end speed, but he's struggled at times, and there's always been a logjam in that Rockies outfield... Eric Young, Jr. could steal 80 bags... Todd Helton will hit .300+ rolling out of bed, but the power is kind of gone... also, they've signed Jose Lopez AND Ty Wigginton in the offseason... both were moves I liked, but I'm not sure where they play?... the loss of Miguel Olivo may hurt, but I like this lineup...
- Starting Pitching - Alert! This is a Rockies pitching staff... that's good!... Ubaldo established himself as a front-line ace-type of guy last year, and I don't think that stops in 2011... I've always been a sucker for Jorge De La Rosa because his strikeout rate is so high, and he's healthy (so far)... but the key? Jhoulys Chacin... if you haven't heard the name, learn it... he's got top-of-the-rotation stuff and he was very good at times in 2010... Throw in the underrated Jason Hammel, and it's a decent staff...
- Bullpen - Another group I like.... Huston Street, when healthy, is a top-end closer, and the guys they have in set-up/closer insurance roles are nice... Matt Lindstrom has closer experience, Franklin Morales is capable, and I like Matt Belisle as well...
- Bench - The aforementioned Lopez/Wigginton combo helps here... they could BOTH be on this bench if Eric Young, Jr. claims a full-time role at 2B and that's very nice... Ryan Spilborghs is a capable 4th outfielder as well... I don't like the backup catcher spot (crucial in the NL) but that's a small hole...
Nobody's elite in this division, but it's the most balanced roster....
2. San Francisco Giants (86-76) - The champs...
- Lineup - Here's where it gets ugly for San Fran... the lineup isn't as bad as it may seem, but it's not strong... first, the good... Buster Posey is a top-3 catcher in baseball already IMO (with Mauer and McCann), who's capable of hitting .300+ with 20-25 HR and 100 RBI... he's a beast... I like Andres Torres in CF who had a nice year in 2010, Aubrey Huff exploded last year, and has the talent to repeat, and I also expect a rebound from the Kung Fu Panda at 3B... that said... there are holes... Pat Burrell as a starting OF? yikes... Cody Ross got hot in the playoffs, but was average at best all year in Florida, and the Miguel Tejada/Freddy Sanchez combo doesn't scare anyone...
- Starting Pitching - Here's where they make their move... Lincecum is elite.. Cain is the next tier down, I love Jonathan Sanchez's talent (and strikeout rate), Bumgarner is an elite prospect who showed big-time stuff last year, and Zito, as a 5th starter in the NL, is more than capable (yes, he's violently overpaid, I get that)... there's no reason to think this will be anything less than a top-3 staff (with Philly at #1 and Atlanta in the mix with SF) in the NL, and it's their rock... the ballpark and the division help too...
- Bullpen - I firmly believe that their starters won them the World Series, but the bullpen was a close 2nd... Brian Wilson was awesome last year, and while his track record doesn't necessarily indicate that it's fully sustainable, he should still be above-average... Romo and Casilla have high-level stuff out there, and I really like Affeldt as well... add in lefty-specialist Javier Lopez, and that's an impressive group
- Bench - Nate Schierholtz, Aaron Rowand, Mike Fontenot, Travis Ishikawa, Eli Whiteside... good luck with that... it's not horrendous, but there's not a single guy who scares you there, especially with Rowand in decline...
It's slightly against the grain, but I stand by it....
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78) - Hmm...
- Lineup - Matt Kemp is a stud... yes, he took a step back in 2010, but a "step back" for Matt Kemp is an elite-ish season for just about any OF, and he's due for a bounceback when you look at the peripherals (low BABIP, etc.)... Andre Ethier was tearing the cover off the ball pre-injury last year, and looks healthy... Furcal is very good when healthy at SS, and I actually like James Loney (even if he has no power)... on the downside? Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames platooning in left? Yikes... Thames actually rakes against lefties (career OPS +.850) but they're both bad on defense... and Jay Gibbons!???.... Juan Uribe was a decent signing at 2B, and I actually liked the Rod Barajas pickup (upgrade over Martin), but it lacks some pop...
- Starting Pitching - Some potential here... Clayton Kershaw showed why he was a huge prospect last year... his K-rate is unreal, his ERA is low, and he even started going longer into games... he joins the ever-solid Ted Lilly, the buzzsaw Chad Billingsley (lol), and Hiroki Kuroda in their top 4... Kuroda is a WHIP machine, and while he won't strike anyone out, he's very solid in the Tim Hudson mold (obviously a step down but still)... Jon Garland in the 5 spot is serviceable...
- Bullpen - Questions abound... Jonathan Broxton hit the wall in 2010, and he's been an abomination this spring... can he hold the closer role? not if he pitches like this... Hong-Chih Kuo is a nice backup plan, a great with great ratios and high-level stuff... but keep an eye on Kenley Jansen as well, he's a high-upside young guy...
- Bench - Thames and Tony Gwynn Jr. is decent off the bench in the outfield, Jamey Carroll is a super-utility guy who can't really hit, but can play anywhere, and Dioner Navarro as the backup catcher is pretty good actually...
I'm not a believer in... the...
4. San Diego Padres (80-82) - Sorry San Diego...
- Lineup - Worst things first, huh?... Okay... The loss of Adrian Gonzalez really hurts them... quick, name the Padres' best hitter... Will Venable? Ryan Ludwick? Chase Headley? It's kind of a mess... all of those guys are definitely starting players, but nobody to write home about... littered in with Cameron Maybin (who I like, but isn't there yet), and Brad Hawpe... Not exactly inspiring confidence...
- Starting Pitching - This unit overachieved a bit last year, and they lost Jon Garland in the offseason... Mat Latos is a beast... a legit #1-type of guy but his innings workload increase is scary... I like Wade LeBlanc and Clayton Richard, but neither are top-end guys, and Aaron Harang...?... Yeah... I just don't see it... even in that ballpark...
- Bullpen - Best unit on the team... Heath Bell is a top-5 closer... Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams were the best set-up tandem in the entire MLB last year, and the long guys are decent enough... they'll at least hold leads...
- Bench - I liked the Jorge Cantu add alot... he's capable of hitting 20+ homers and playing both corner spots... outside of that? Chris Denorfia? Everth Cabrera?... Go fish...
And the dregs...
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (76-86) - Not as bad as last year.. but...
- Lineup - Quietly pretty good... Justin Upton leads the way... he's one of the top young players in baseball entering his prime years in the OF... really like him... Chris Young had the best year of his career in 2010, and while I'm not convinced it's repeatable, he should at least be above-average... I love the middle infield of Stephen Drew and Kelly Johnson... the Braves' cast-off of Johnson in favor of saving $3 million was atrocious, and he made them pay... and Miguel Montero is a very nice backstop... the corner infield is the problem with Juan Miranda and Melvin Mora as the penciled in starters to replace LaRoche and Reynolds... that's not going to cut it...
- Starting Pitching - 2 very nice young guys in Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson... everyone (literally, everyone) loves Hudson, but Kennedy was great last year, and flew under the radar on that atrocious team... 3 through 5 is sketchy with Galarraga, Heilman (Yikes), and Joe Saunders... eww....
- Bullpen - They locked JJ Putz is in as the closer... he's been very effective in that role, and should continue to be that while healthy... Sam Demel and David Hernandez are high-upside guys in the set-up role, and that's not bad... the bullpen depth isn't really there (Juan Gutierrez?), but it's not awful...
- Bench - Gerardo Parra manning the outfield is "meh"... Geoff Blum, Tony Abreu and Henry Blanco as the primary infield guys? I can't... Sorry....
And that's the NL West... everyone centered around the mean...
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