2011 NFL Preview: Part 1 - AFC West

Greetings all... you already know what's going down... 9-part NFL Preview with all 8 divisions and a comprehensive playoff/award post... let's kick it off with the semi-hapless AFC West...

1. San Diego Chargers (11-5) - The class of the division... this is the only team with a top-10 QB in the presence of Mr. Philip Rivers, and that gives them the edge from the jump... they lost Darren Sproles in the off-season, but with the healthy Mathews/Tolbert tandem, they're set at RB, and while the "receiving" corps is uninspiring after Vincent Jackson, we can't forget that they have the best tight end alive in Antonio Gates, who functions as a receiver more often than not... they're going to score points... on defense? Some old faces (namely Mr. Merriman) have gone elsewhere, and while some talent remains, this is the more questionable unit... I really like the back-end with Bob Sanders and Eric Weddle at safety, but the front 7 has some questions... at any rate, they should cruise to the division title simply by lack of options...
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8) - The Chiefs won the AFC West last year... did you forget that? I almost did... they started out scorching hot, and held on for dear life... Jamaal Charles is a top-5 running back and maybe the most exciting ball carrier this side of Chris Johnson... teamed with Thomas Jones, that's a potent ground game... the issue is the ability of Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe, and company to produce some yards and points in the passing game... Bowe had an all-pro type year in 2010, but it was spotty, especially down the stretch, and I don't fully trust Cassel... they've added Steve Breaston in the offseason, and I thought that was a sneaky good move to add a secondary target... on defense, they are young and talented... Eric Berry is electrifying and they've gotten big-time production from OLB Tamba Hali (who they just locked up to an extension)... the key for this unit is Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey... both former top-5 picks have been underwhelming for various reasons (injury, etc.) and they'll need one or both to step up... the 8 wins is more an indictment of my feelings on Cassel, and if he plays well? That number grows, but the Chiefs beat one (yes, one) team with a winning record in 2010... keep that in mind...
   
3. Oakland Raiders (7-9) - The Al Davis roadshow... new coach (again)... but (gasp) the SAME offense for Jason Campbell two years in a row?!? Crazy talk for a guy who literally hasn't played in the same system twice since HIGH SCHOOL... that can only help, and I'm actually a Campbell believer of sorts... he won't carry you, but I think he's better than he gets credit for... Darren McFadden was electric last year and showed why he was so highly regarded coming out of college... the injury risk is still there with DMC, but Michael Bush was brought back for insurance... the receiving corps? Kind of a mess... Jacoby Ford is really fast, and so is Heyward-Bey, but that's about it... not a "reliable" option in the bunch, but I did like the Kevin Boss signing at TE... the big defensive defection was Nnamdi of course, but it's actually a pretty talented unit with vets like Seymour and Tommy Kelly coupled with young guys like Rolando McClain... I think McFadden gets banged up and they don't get any real production from the wideouts...
   
4. Denver (5-11) - Back to back 4 and 5 win seasons? Yikes... they "should" be better than this with Kyle Orton (because he's leaps and bounds better than Tim Tebow at the moment), but that doesn't take into account how bad this defense is... the guys you know (Brian Dawkins, Champ Bailey, etc.) are past their primes, and they CONTINUE to miss on draft pick after draft pick... that said, the Von Miller/Elvis Dumervil pass-rush combo could change that... those 2 are big-time... back to the offense.... Orton is average as can be, and I STILL think you'll see Tebow by season's end simply because Orton isn't taking them anywhere... Knowshon Moreno has high-end talent but seems to be banged up all the time, and Willis McGahee is his insurance/goal-line guy.... Brandon Lloyd... hm.. what do you even say... I don't believe... there it is... I think Denver is more competitive than last year, but doesn't sniff the playoffs...

There it is... stay tuned for Part 2 covering the AFC South...