MLB Preview: AL East

Okay, So first of all....I don't do exact record predictions....too hard to balance it out with every other major league team and irresponsible to post records that don't add up evenly....2nd, there are some very close calls here and alot depends on injuries...but hereeeee we go

1) Boston Red Sox- Well, I had them penciled here easily to start Spring Training....then Beckett went down with back trouble (supposedly not serious) and Schilling is on the 60-day DL...hmmm......That said, I still have them narrowly over the Yankees because I have a good deal of faith in Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz and this is easily the 2nd best lineup in the division and right on the heels of NYY. The X-factors here are Dice-K, Jonathan Papelbon, and Mike Lowell...Dice-K has to bring a #1-like level (at least til Schilling gets back) to offset Beckett and bring stability with the young guys like Lester and Buchholz behind him.....Papelbon has to maintain the utter dominance he did last year (He will) and still be the best closer in the Majors to lock down a bullpen that has setup issues (including Mike Timlin who is about 125 years old)......And last but maybe least...Mike Lowell.....He's an aging power hitter that got paid for a career year last year....I have my doubts that a repeat performance is in store here...but he must be solid to protect Manny and Papi in the lineup (especially when either or both of them go down with injury, which usually happens)......Nonetheless, You can pretty much pencil Boston in for 94-98 wins and a division title...

2) New York Yankees- This team looks remarkably similar to last year's bunch outside of the youth invasion in the rotation....The linup will again be stout (how stout depends on Giambi and Abreu in contract years) but the real cause for concern with be the pitching as usual in the Big Apple....At least 2 young guys will be firmly in the rotation (Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes) and for some unexplained reason they seem content with moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation instead of grooming him to replace the aging Mariano Rivera...That one doesn't make sense to me in any way...moving on....The advantage for Boston to New York here is that the rotation is more secure IMO than New York's featuring Chien Meng Wang, Mike Mussina (old), and Andy Pettitte (old and steroid distraction) with 2 young guys that really haven't pitched much (yes, even less than Lester/Buchholz)....That said...X-Factors here are the already mentioned Giambi/Abreu combo, the older starters (Mussina and Pettitte), and the bullpen.....Mussina and Pettitte must come to pitch and stay healthy throughout b/c of the lack of depth behind them while the setup platoon of Latroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth (yikes) has to get the ball to Mariano Rivera who is poised for a significant dropoff one of these years.....I'm thinking Approx. 90-92 wins and a Wild Card battle for NYY

3) Toronto Blue Jays- I keep hearing Toronto has the pieces to make a run at the top 2....I don't see all that...but I think they are a step above the rest of the division....The thing that jumps out to me here is that there are numerous injury/age question marks....From AJ Burnett and BJ Ryan from the pitching staff to Scott Rolen in the lineup....Too many influential questions for me to seriously consider a deep run....I like what they did in the offseason picking up David Eckstein (as well as Rolen) to bolster the infield and bring experience....I still love Alex Rios even though he hasn't reached his ceiling quite yet and Vernon Wells is still a high-level player in CF....X-Factors here are BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, and the entire infield....BJ Ryan has to come off the long rehab from last year's injury and prove he wasn't viciously overpaid in free agency.....AJ Burnett is oft-injured but can be dominant when healthy and SOMEONE has to help out Mr. Consistent Roy Halladay....When looking at this infield of Rolen, Eckstein, Aaron Hill and Lyle Overbay...I just don't see any pop...Maybe I'm wrong about Rolen but I know you pretty much get nothing in terms of pop from Eckstein and Hill (although you don't need it from your leadoff guy in Eckstein) and Overbay is still a name people recognize who has never come into his own fully.....I think this is a .500 team....79-83 wins....Enjoy your offseason

4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays- wait...The Rays...scratch the Devil.....The story here is one already told....plenty of youth and talent...a lack of a experience...and a lack of pitching....but I still think this is probably the best team this organization has ever fielded (not saying much).....The outfield looks immaculate on paper until you realize that Rocco Baldelli is out...again...Longoria is a question mark at 3B but definitely looks the part alongside Carlos Pena at the other corner who hit 46 HRs last year....The rotation is decent at the top with Scott Kazmir (very good) and James Shields (decent) but the rest of the staff (bullpen included) leaves something to be desired.....X-Factors here are Matt Garza, The Closer battle, and Carlos Pena.......The Rays paid a high price to get Matt Garza from Minnesota (trading prized OF Delmon Young) to bolster the rotation but Garza is still very raw/unproven and needs to be quite good for the Rays to compete.....The closer battle is almost comical between Al Reyes and the 80-year-old Troy Percival....whoever wins the job has to at least be okay to hold any prospective leads they may have late.....and Carlos Pena doesn't necessarily have to repeat 46 homers again...but he better be good as he is the only "reliable" power option alongside Crawford and Upton....Below .500 again for the Rays but out of the cellar!!

5) Baltimore Orioles- I have no idea what the plan is for Baltimore....they obviously want to get younger and save money...but I don't peg them as a team that penny pinches....or at least they shouldnt be.....First, this lineup isn't as bad as you might think (especially if Brian Roberts is in it)...Adam Jones should be good in CF and Nick Markakis exploded last year to be a legit star in the making in RF....The old standby's in the IF (Melvin Mora and Brian Roberts) will provide professional hitting and a little pop but question marks abound in Left and at shortstop and Kevin Millar will get the full-time look at 1B...hmmm.....The Lineup is definitely the better half of the squad however with Jeremy Guthrie anchoring the rotation and Danys Baez in the closer role....This may be the worst pitching staff in the entire league...X-factors here are Daniel Cabrera and Adam Jones....although they'll need more.....Daniel Cabrera has shown the ability to be dominant but is still wildly inconsistent....they need more here to help Guthrie (who somehow is a #1)....Adam Jones is a 5-tool guy that they felt like was enough to part with Erik Bedard so...in short, he better be good....like...now....Cellar Dwelling for Baltimore...

EDIT: I'm probably doing 1 of these a day until Wednesday, then breaking for the madness