- Baltimore @ Atlanta - 8:20 Thursday - 6-2 vs. 6-2 and maybe the best game of the entire weekend... Baltimore comes in healthier with ATL nursing injuries to Roddy White (expected to play), Todd McClure, and the rook Weatherspoon, but this game is being played in the Georgia Dome where Matt Ryan is 17-1 as a starter, and the Falcons are 18-3 overall in the Mike Smith era... I think Baltimore is the better team on a neutral field, but Ryan is a different player at home, and the improved Falcons D should be able to slow Ray Rice enough to make Flacco (also better at home) beat them... I like the Falcons close...
- Carolina @ Tampa Bay - 1:00 - the Panthers are an absolute mess right now... Clausen at QB... no Williams... probably no Stewart... How do they score any points here?... Josh Freeman is playing well, Tampa has the better defense... seems cut and dry here...
- Detroit @ Buffalo - 1:00 - Let me try this again... Buffalo is going to win this week... Detroit is playing Shaun Hill (or even Drew Stanton, yikes), and Buffalo is still playing much, much better than their 0-8 mark.... I don't trust Hill or Stanton to go on the road and win, and frankly, Buffalo is due... Fitzpatrick (and newly productive WR Steve Johnson) make enough plays...
- Houston @ Jacksonville - 1:00 - Tough call here... Houston isn't playing particularly well, especially Schaub, but I still don't believe the Jags are better than mediocre (if that)... Houston's pass D is really, really bad, but I don't trust that Garrard can exploit it, and MJD will be facing 8 man fronts all day... Gun to my head, give me the better QB and the better skill guys...
- Tennessee @ Miami - 1:00 - I was taking Miami... until they announced Chad Pennington as the starter... affectionately termed the "soft-throwing Chad Pennington", I actually think he's competent... but Tennessee knows as much as we do that he can't throw the ball downfield, and armed with that knowledge, they'll be 8 or 9 in the box here... Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have been largely ineffective, and that'll continue... and oh... Tennessee has a new toy at WR... Randy gets something deep here... take the Titans...
- Minnesota @ Chicago - 1:00 - I'm making a living in stating these teams are overvalued, so what do I do when they play each other?... Take the home team of course... Favre and Cutler are cut from the same cloth... Favre has the better O-line and the better running game... Cutler has the better defense and the homefield... hmm... seems even... what next? Ah... the head coaches... Lovie Smith is never one to inspire too much confidence, BUT he hasn't completely lost his team a la Brad Childress... decision made...
- NY Jets @ Cleveland - 1:00 - The Peyton Hillis traveling roadshow faces the Jets... definitely his stiffest test so far... I like NYJ in the game b/c Colt McCoy has never seen anything like what they'll present him, they'll hold Hillis under 100, and I'm not sure they have the explosiveness to make them pay for playing 9 in the box... On the other hand, Sanchez is usually bad on the road, but I think Greene/LDT grind this one out...
- Cincy @ Indy - 1:00 - Peyton Manning vs. Carson Palmer... I can stop now... right?... Okay I'll keep going.. the lone bright spot for Cincy here should be Cedric Benson.. I think he has a big game grinding on that small-ish Indy defense... that said, TO won't be running free here, and Ochocinco has disappeared... The Bengals need to score 28+ here to win IMO so i'm not sure they can....
- KC @ Denver - 4:00 - It's put up or shut up for KC... they needed the Oakland game last week and didn't get it, and now they stumble into a matchup with the hapless Broncos... granted, Denver had a bye week to get right, but they were flat-out awful in their last 3-4 games, and can't stop the run at all (cough, KC runs at will)... Denver can't run the ball at all, so expect to see alot of Orton, and while he's been good, I don't think he can beat them alone... Chiefs...
- Dallas @ NY Giants - 4:00 - We live in a world where NYG is a 15 point favorite here... 15! In the NFL!... No one in their right mind would pick the Cowboys here, but I will say this, I don't think NYG is as good as they've looked, and there's some look-over potential here... that said, come on...
- St. Louis @ San Francisco - 4:00 - So... do 49er fans know that Troy Smith is better than Alex Smith?... Or are we still a week away?... I like SF because I think Gore runs wild, and I can't pick Bradford on the road against a good-ish defense... but if Alex Smith plays, I somehow like SF less...
- Seattle @ Arizona - 4:00 - AZ is the favorite here... but AZ is bad... really bad... Hasselbeck looks good-to-go and that's huge for Seattle (b/c Charlie was awful)... Seattle has the better run game, the better QB and the better defense...
- New England @ Pittsburgh - 8:00 Sunday - There's no one I'd flat-out pick to beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh... and that theory is tested here by picking against my favorite QB... NE is banged up... Branch is limping around, Welker doesn't look right, and Brady hasn't thrown for 300 yards all year... Pittsburgh will take advantage of the hole-filled NE defense, and grind out a typical Steelers win here.. expect to see alot of Hines Ward...
- Philly @ Washington - 8:30 Monday - Upset special... McNabb is due for an "eff you" game, and this may be it... Off the bye for Washington, and a potential letdown for Philly on the road... also, I'm a bit skeptical that Vick can keep these passing numbers going (I know, blasphemy) and although I'm rooting for it, I don't expect it... More of a gut call than anything.. but there it is...
THE PICKS! (26-26-1 entering CFB)
- NY Jets -3 over Cleveland - Back to earth for Colt McCoy...
- Tennessee -2 over Miami - Soft-throwing!
- Tampa Bay -7 over Carolina - Jimmy Clausen on the road...
Favorites? eh...
Until next time...
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