Thursday, November 18, 2010

NFL Preview Week 11

To the games (no bye weeks!)... As always, Winners in bold....
  • Chicago @ Miami - 8:00 Thursday - I continue to believe that Chicago is doing this with smoke and mirrors... now they go on the road, and even with Tyler Thigpen at the helm, I like Miami... Make no mistake, Chicago's defense is legitimate... but their running game has been putrid (don't let Forte's fantasy numbers fool you, he's getting receptions, not rushing yards), and Cutler is a grease fire the majority of the time... For Miami? I actually think Thigpen is semi-decent.. and he doesn't need to be anything better than that... short passing game to Marshall and Bess, they'll control the tempo, and win this one close...
  • Buffalo @ Cincinnati - 1:00 - I almost picked Buffalo... on the road... that should tell you what I think of the Bengals these days... they refuse to establish the run, but if there was ever a game, this is it... Buffalo's run D is otherworldly bad, and Benson needs a big game.... so of course, I'm sure Palmer will wing it all over the yard... at any rate, Cincy is just better, and playing at home, I can't pick against them... but I certainly wouldn't wager on it...
  • Cleveland @ Jacksonville - I have no idea here... I feel like Hillis will run wild, but I hate rookie QBs on the road (I'm looking at you, Colt McCoy)... on the other hand, the Cleveland run D is capable of neutralizing MJD and making Garrard beat them (always an adventure)... flip a coin and take the home team... simple as that
  • Green Bay @ Minnesota - 1:00 - I think the Vikings have quit... couple that belief with the fact that I think GB is legitimately good, and that spells trouble... Favre will have a tough time here b/c Rice probably won't play still, leaving Harvin double-covered and the Greg Lewis/Greg Camarillo pu pu platter to try and beat the Packers... good luck... Minny's only hope is Peterson having a big-time day, and even then, I like Rodgers and company to get off here...
  • Oakland @ Pittsburgh - 1:00 - Angry Steeler team... Oakland (West coast team) traveling 3,000 miles east... Oakland getting overvalued because of their recent showings... All the makings of a blow-out
  • Baltimore @ Carolina - 1:00 - Jimmy Clausen! A banged-up Jonathan Stewart! Mike Goodson!.... Man, Carolina is bad... and with one of their elite guys gone for the season in Deangelo Williams, I can't believe it's going to get any better... You can never assume anything on the road, but I'd be alarmed if Baltimore didn't jump on them early and cruise... too much Rice, too much Flacco/Boldin/Mason... Edit: Clausen is out and Carolina is going with... Brian St. Pierre!... In case you wondering, that's not any better...
  • Detroit @ Dallas - 1:00 - Detroit hasn't won a road game in something like 3 years... you can't pick them on the road until they do... Dallas showed life under Jason Garrett last week, and I like Kitna to beat up on his old team a bit... if Stafford was healthy? I'd think about it... but I refuse to back Shaun Hill, and the suddenly inept Jahvid Best on the road....
  • Arizona @ KC - 1:00 - The Chiefs are a different team at home... and Arizona is really bad... a virtual must-win for KC with how they've looked the last couple of weeks, and Dwayne Bowe may go for 200 yards here against that Arizona pass D... Arrowhead!
  • Houston @ NY Jets - 1:00 - If the Jets blow out Houston... does Kubiak get fired on Monday? I think it's in the realm... Schaub had his best game of the year last week, but this is a much stiffer test, and on the road in potential weather, I don't like the average-armed Schaub... Hope for the Texans? Sanchez is due for a stinker here... Tomlinson is looking washed-up again, and Cotchery is out... if it's a shootout, Houston has a shot...
  • Washington @ Tennessee - 1:00 - I know Mike Vick was electric on Monday... but didn't the Skins defense just roll over and die? I say yes... it doesn't get much easier facing Chris Johnson, and now that teams have to roll 2 defenders to Randy Moss? Probably an extra guy out of the box for Johnson to go off... I do think McNabb has an "eff you" game or 2 coming here with all the bashing he's taken, but I'm not sure it's here against a quality defense...
  • Tampa Bay @ San Francisco - 4:00 - It was pointed out by my good friend, Josh, that, until last week, I hadn't picked Tampa to win all year... and he was right... wow... well, Tampa is better than San Fran... and yet? My first inclination was to take the Niners who are suddenly invigorated by average (that looks like great compared to A. Smith) QB play from Troy Smith, and it's a long trip for Tampa... but hey, Josh Freeman is pretty good (I'll admit I was wrong on him), and Troy Smith is due for an off-day himself.... No conviction at all, but give me Tampa...
  • Seattle @ New Orleans - 4:00 - I know Seattle is bad on the road, but can someone explain this game being a 13-point spread? Goodness... I'm higher on the Saints than most it seems like, but that's staggering... That said, Brees and company shouldn't have too much trouble here, and I can't pick Seattle on the road against a good team..
  • Atlanta @ St. Louis - 4:00 - Full disclosure... I had the Rams until I switched it last minute... that should tell you something... the overriding factor? 10 days off for Atlanta... tough to ignore that virtual bye week, and when you are well-coached (they are), that helps alot... The Rams are frisky... especially at home, and this will be a close game, I'm convinced of that... and this is a big-time test for Atlanta's status as making "the leap"....
  • Indy @ New England - 4:00 - Tough to call here always... but I like Peyton here... Just don't think the Pats have enough in the secondary, and Indy's defense lines up perfectly to stop the Pats... Short passing games are neutralized by Indy's speed, and without a legit deep threat, they'll be cheating all day... do the Pats have enough of a ground game to keep them honest? I say no... close game as always, but I like Indy matchup-wise... call it a feeling...
  • NY Giants @ Philly - 8:20 - The battle of the NFC East titans... NYG coming off an ugly loss... Philly coming off a dominant win... hm... Honestly, the deciding factor is my refusal to pick Eli Manning outdoors at night in any sort of weather, and I can't imagine it'll be warm in Philly... but this'll be a test for Vick and company, and the Eagles have to stop the run to win this game...
  • Denver @ San Diego - Monday 8:30 - It's about that time for the Chargers... Gates is back... November is on the calendar... they'll get hot, they'll beat up on a bad Denver team (especially in the secondary), and we'll be arguing about whether they are an AFC contender (again)...

THE PICKS! (YTD 31-27-1 pending CFB)

  • Green Bay -3
  • Miami -1.5
  • Carolina -11... Wow, I can't believe I'm doing this... but home teams getting 11 in the NFL are generally decent bets... Edit: No longer taking this with news of St. Pierre! (Thursday night, 7:48 pm)
  • New Orleans -11.5... Added after taking Carolina off

Enjoy the slate!

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