Tuesday, November 23, 2010

College Football Preview: Rivalry Week

Well... this is unequivocally the biggest week on the college football schedule that isn't "championship game" week... and the best part? It stretches over a 3-day period... Let's get to the games...

  • Auburn @ Alabama - Friday 2:30 CBS - Well... this is the main course... One of the top 2-3 rivalries in all the land... 2 top 10 teams... and oh yeah, Auburn is playing for a BCS Title game shot.... and there's that Cam Newton thing... Alot on the line here... on the field? I like Alabama... better defense, experienced offensive nucleus, great running game (to take Cam Newton off the field), and Julio Jones to gash them deep... that said, It's very, very difficult to bet against Cam Newton... he's one of the those guys you are flat-out terrified of, and for good reason... This is must-see TV... An interesting note here? Alabama is a 4.5 point favorite... 3 points are basically given for homefield, but this means Vegas thinks Bama (with 2 losses) is flat-out better...
  • Arizona @ Oregon - Friday 7:00 ESPN - This gets top billing as well simply because of what's on the line for Oregon... Arizona is a dangerous football team, and this game would be getting a ton more buzz if it wasn't at Autzen Stadium (aka the loudest place in the country)... I feel good about Oregon in the game, but anyone who sleeps on Arizona (probably because they missed them beating Iowa early in the year) has another thing coming potentially...
  • Boise State @ Nevada - Friday 10:15 ESPN - It's a one game season for Boise... their schedule for about 8 weeks straight was flat-out abysmal, but getting Nevada, on the road... on national TV... is a big boost... The Wolfpack are a legit ranked team and can score in bunches... this helps them in the computers with a win, and nationally in the polls if they look good... that being said... I'm taking Nevada... Getting Boise off the blue turf helps and Nevada will be playing fast and loose behind an experienced (and talented) QB in Kaepernick... Yeah, I'm on the limb...
  • LSU @ Arkansas - Saturday 3:30 CBS - Stay with me here... Auburn goes down to Alabama, Boise loses to Nevada... Oregon has to play Arizona and their rival in the next 2 weeks... LSU/TCU in the title game?... Okay, admittedly that's a stretch... and it would be a travesty for this LSU team to play for the championship, but it's in play... this is a big-time showcase (their last one) for Les Miles b/c they can't play in the SEC title game as well...
  • Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State - Saturday 8:00 ABC - For the Big 12 South title... and in a big-time rivalry game no less... I still can't trust OK State... but what happens if they beat Oklahoma and Nebraska in consecutive weeks and end 12-1...?...

And this gets its own category... Big 10 Madness! Ready? It goes without saying that if 1 team wins and 2 other lose, that team wins it... but Here are the scenarios...

  1. Wisconsin, OSU, and MSU all win - Wisconsin wins the Big 10 by virtue of being highest in the BCS
  2. Wisconsin wins, MSU wins, OSU loses - MSU wins Big 10 as result of head-to-head vs. Wisconsin
  3. Wisconsin wins, MSU loses, OSU wins - Wisc. wins Big 10 as result of head-to-head vs. OSU
  4. Wisconsin Loses, MSU Wins, OSU Wins - Ohio State (likely) wins as result of BCS rankings b/c OSU and MSU did not play

Okay... What do I think? I think Wisconsin and OSU win, and Mich State loses on the road in Happy Valley, which is scenario #3 crowning Wisconsin as the champs...

  • Michigan @ Ohio State - Saturday Noon ABC - Well... it comes down to this for the Big Game... There's little point in doing a full breakdown because no one cares nearly as much as I do... but here are a few points... 1) Ohio State's offense is not as prolific as it may seem... Pryor has been erratic at times, and the running backs, although good, are not electric... 2) Michigan can score points on anyone... 3) Mike Martin is healthy for Michigan (cannot be understated)... and 4) No, I don't actually believe Michigan can/will stop Ohio State's offense... It'll be exciting... it'll be a punch in the gut for me... seems like the usual... Ohio State 41, Michigan 35...

And for my local friends...

  • Georgia Tech @ Georgia - It's kind of sad how little pub this game is getting... but that's what happens when there is a combined 11 wins... anyway, I think Georgia is the far better football team, especially when GT is playing without Nesbitt, and playing on the road in Athens... mostly b/c the Yellow Jackets have a fairly abysmal defense, and Aaron Murray/AJ Green is a nice combo that should beat up on them a bit... that said, GT can run the ball (still) and if they can control the clock, it could be a game...

THE PICKS! 35-30-2 after a 4-3-1 week (2-2-1 college, 2-1 NFL)

  • Texas +3 over A&M... Classic hangover game... short week off a huge win for A&M and Texas has the better coach...
  • Nevada +14.5 over Boise... If I picked them to win straight up? I gotta take 14.5 points...
  • Michigan +17 over Ohio State... I know, I know... homer pick... but there's some reasoning too... Rivalry game, Tressel usually plays Tressel-ball vs. Michigan... Denard... 17 is alot...
  • Northwestern +23 over Wisconsin... I continually think NW is undervalued.. they won't win, but they'll hang
  • Arizona +19.5 over Oregon... Just to keep with the underdog theme... Arizona is undervalued... and backdoor covers still count...

Enjoy the crazy, holiday weekend... and please, please, please... Beat the Buckeyes!

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