West (Previous in Parentheses)
- LA Lakers (LAL) - The Champs.... a 13-4 start, and while San Antonio has the better record, there's no evidence that there's any real trouble in LA... to the point where I think (aloud) that they may be better without Bynum... hear me out... Sure, if Bynum is okay with a 20-minute-per backup center role? That's the ideal scenario... but if they try to integrate him fully as a default-starter? I don't like.. Gasol and Odom are playing too well, and any knock to their minutes/roles would be a mistake IMO... Still the favorites...
- San Antonio (DAL) - Man the Spurs are playing great basketball... Career-best efficiency numbers from Manu and Parker, the best shooting numbers of Richard Jefferson's career (where did that come from?), productivity from young guys like Blair, Splitter, Hill, and Neal... and they're doing it all with career-worst production from Duncan (14 and 9)? I think a little of this is a decline in attempts (noted), but Duncan's lost a half-step at least... they have their best supporting cast since the title runs though, and they are the most serious Western threat to LA...
- Dallas (OKC) - Is Dirk the MVP so far? I've heard rumblings... and full-out shouting from Bill Simmons... 26 points, 8 boards, 55/38/85 percentages, and he's doing it all without a real 2nd banana... anyway, other than Dirk, Tyson Chandler is the key to them for me... he's giving them 9/9/2 in just 27 minutes, and has really amped it up on defense (to make up for Haywood's lack of production thus far, nice signing Mark Cuban!)... the key to them making a deep run? Either getting throwback production from Caron Butler (he's been bad) or getting him off that roster somehow... he's a ball-stopper...
- New Orleans (SA) - Chris Paul has been the best player in the league this season by 3 different statistical projections (most notably Hollinger's PER)... the guy is great... and just because we (collectively) forgot about him, doesn't excuse it... 17/10/3 steals, and only 11 FGAs a game while running his squad... there's likely a regression coming from the rest of his team, but Okafor is integrated this year, they still haven't gotten max production from Ariza (will it ever come?), and I love the Jarrett Jack move as a 3rd guard that can back Paul up AND be their crunch-time 2-guard when needed...
- OKC (HOU) - First... the positives... Russell Westbrook has made the leap... averaging 24 and 9 (as the 2nd option!? wow), with over 2 steals per and legitimately becoming a star... and Serge Ibaka has become a reliable big for them (11/7/2 in 27 min)... but there are more questions than we thought... Durant is mired in a shooting slump (27% threes on the year) and hasn't been nearly as efficient as he was in 2009-10... they're getting below average production from James Harden (sigh) and Krstic, and still lack front-court depth mostly because lottery pick Cole Aldrich is in the D-league... I'm not worried about Durant (at all) but the others?.. eh...
- Utah (POR) - Utah's starting 5 is very, very talented/good.... Williams/Bell/AK47/Millsap/Jefferson is nice even if you don't think Bell (or Miles) is a starter (duh).... but the problem is this bench... Ronnie Price... Francisco Elson... Earl Watson...Fesenko... that smells... so there are limits here... but Deron Williams is playing great (22/10), Jefferson is coming along (up to 17 and 9) now and Paul Millsap is doing his best to make up the Boozer slack... there's a ceiling, but they are fantastically coached (always with Sloan), and they'll hang with anyone...
- Portland (UTA) - They take a bit of a dive on the Brandon Roy injury front (now publicly limiting his minutes), and the news that Oden is out for the year (not factored in the preseason)... fortunately for Portland, they have frontcourt depth with Camby and Aldridge (with Pryzbilla on the way), and Wesley Matthews has done yeoman's work in Roy's place... I still think it's a playoff team as long as Roy doesn't continue to go down for long periods... well-coached too, and I almost forgot to mention Nic Batum's jump... he's defending everyone (save Durant) in dominant fashion, and his offensive game (13 a game on 46%) is improving...
- Denver (DEN) - I officially think Melo will finish the season in Denver (for some reason)... so they land in front of Phoenix... the Birdman/K-mart injuries have really, really hurt their depth... but they somehow unearthed Gary Forbes (who!?) and have gotten semi-reasonable production (trying to be nice) from the Landlord, Shelden Williams.... they've offset Billups decline with a slight ascension from Lawson, and Afflalo is taking minutes from the clinically insane JR Smith... I still don't think they're much of a threat.. but as long as Melo is there and they can get healthy? not an easy matchup...
- Phoenix (NO) - Didn't like the composition of the team... and I still don't?... but they land in front of the also-rans and move up a spot by default because of Houston's struggles... Nash has been typically great (19/10 with 49/36/88 percentages), and they've gotten nice production from Richardson (21 and 5), Hill, and even Warrick... but I don't think Hedo fits at all (he's not very good without the ball in his hands), and they've effectively jumped off the Robin Lopez wagon... which I don't understand... at any rate, they don't scare anyone long-term, but if they make shots, they can beat anyone... basically the same old story but with less talent, and a worse composition... nice!
- Houston (PHX) - My worst call of the year to date... In fairness, they've gotten a COMBINED 10 games from Aaron Brooks and Yao Ming... aka 2 of their best 4 players... but I thought the collective depth here would be enough to offset injury concerns with Yao... whoops... any way, when Brooks gets back, their record will improve because 1) he's good, and 2) Ish Smith isn't good... The Battier/Lee/Budinger trio has not played well at all and that's the root of alot of the issues... Battier and Budinger are shooting a combined 37% (yikes) and Lee has been unimpressive... all that is negative so here's a positive... Luis Scola is a beast... they just locked him up at a very reasonable price, and he responded with 21 and 9 so far this year... he's playing lights-out...
- Memphis (LAC) - Similar to Utah in that depth is the major issue IMO... They've tried (repeat: tried) to address it by moving OJ Mayo to the bench... It's admirable, but I doubt it sticks... anyway, the "big" move they made was locking down Mike Conley for 5 years at 45 million... anyone who knows me, knows I love Mike Conley like a brother... and yet, even I thought it was an overpayment... but I digress... Rudy Gay has pleasantly surprised this year (22 and 7 per) but Mayo and Randolph have regressed a bit, and Marc Gasol has regressed ALOT (per the numbers)... the bench is actually a bit deeper than last year with guys like Tony Allen and Xavier Henry arriving... but not enough to compete... it's a similar problem to the Hawks (although even less talented) in that they have a definitive ceiling they can't seem to break through, so why lock guys down?
- Golden State (MEM) - One of the league's best surprises so far... 8-9 at time of press here, and playing even better than that when David Lee is on the floor... Monta Ellis is trying (and thus far, succeeding) in proving everyone, including me, wrong about him, averaging 25 per game this year and co-existing peacefully with the team's best player, Stephen Curry.... Curry is averaging 20 pts, 6 dimes, 2 steals in only 33 minutes and shooting 47/40/89 percentages... crazily efficient... I'm not the biggest David Lee fan as a leading guy... but he certainly can score and rebound (just can't defend at all), and he helps them alot up front... the biggest key (other than Ellis) so far though? Andris Biedrins is healthy and playing... averaging 8 points, and 10 boards while providing (some) resistance defensively up front... huge for them
- LA Clippers (SAC) - At least the future is bright?... Not a whole lot positive to say about this season so far... but with Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin averaging 45 combined points? That helps... their chances at competing this year have been murdered by Chris Kaman's health (and poor play) and Baron Davis' health (and terrible play)... it helps them going forward to get Deandre Jordan and Eric Bledsoe extended time... but it certainly doesn't help them compete this year... on the bright side, Al-Farouq Aminu is better than most people thought he'd be already averaging 8 points per (in only 19 min) and being nearly league-average in efficiency...
- Minnesota (GS) - How can I pull Minnesota out of the bottom spot, you ask? It's more an indictment on the Kings... but Kevin Love is an absolute beast, leading the league in rebounding and throwing up 20-20s every other night... and Michael Beasley suddenly is finding his stride averaging 22 and 6 (and nearly 30 in the last 10)... even Darko (!) is getting in on the act playing league-average (or better) lately... the problems are still there... point guard play is below-average (and flat-out bad without Ridnour), Corey Brewer has taken a step back, and their bench has been woeful... but they stole Beasley, and if Darko plays this way...?... Okay I'll stop there
- Sacramento (MIN) - Man, are they bad... Tyreke Evans numbers are down across the board, and as the team's best player, his season PER is under 15 (league average, again)... Demarcus Cousins is showing off his head-case tendencies almost daily now, and insists on shooting threes... they have exactly ONE guy playing above his head right now (Francisco Garcia), and even Carl Landry, who I love, is only putting up 13 a game on 46% shooting... the main problems (other than Evans' seeming regression) is the makeup of the frontcourt... between Dalembert, Cousins, & Thompson, none is playing particularly well, and they seem primed to make a deal... it's getting ugly... they are certainly more talented than Minnesota, but I don't see the same (although bleak) signs of life...
- Orlando (MIA) - Full disclosure... Boston is the best team in the East... period... but I also know that Doc will shut guys down, limit minutes, etc. and that opens the door for Orlando to get homecourt.... Dwight is playing the best basketball of his career... my preseason MVP pick (and I stand by it), is averaging 23 points, 12 boards, 2+ blocks, and even 1+ steals... easily the best scoring numbers of his career and he's getting more polished... that's the main bright spot... other than Jameer Nelson (who's playing well), every other "big-time" contributor isn't as good as they should be/have been... Rashard Lewis has been flat-out bad, shooting 41% and averaging about 12 per... Vince is hurt (again), and the Richardson/Duhon additions haven't really worked out.... on the bright side? They're still 12-4 despite all these things (i.e. Dwight is really, really good) and they've decided, mercifully, to start playing Brandon Bass, who's responded with very nice play... I think they'll win 57-59 and that'll probably be enough...
- Boston (ORL) - As said above... best in the East... 6 guys averaging double-digits... deepest team around (even with the West injury), and Rondo is a machine (14 dimes per)... haven't even mentioned the big 3 yet... but they are there, and Garnett looks better than I thought he would (16 and 9 this year) on both ends... not a whole lot to add other than they'll be scary if and when they are fully healthy (i.e. Perkins/Shaq/JO all up front)... they'll put it on cruise control and win 55-ish
- Chicago (BOS) - Toughest team to evaluate, maybe in the whole league (other than Miami, obv)... Boozer should debut sometime this week, and that'll be a key obviously.. but they are playing very well without him... Rose is quietly averaging 27 (27!) a game with 8 assists and is the unquestioned leader... Noah is doing Noah things (i.e. 13 boards and great defense) but he's more polished offensively too... this is going to come down to how they integrate Boozer, and the play of the wing guys (Deng, Korver, Brewer)... but this is a talented TEAM that fits well together, and I like them alot going forward... would be a great series with them at full strength vs. Boston
- Miami (CHI) - Do I even need to do this write-up? You hear about them ad nauseum... 2 great players, 1 very good player, 1 good player who isn't playing (Mike Miller), 5 serviceable-ish players (Big Z, Jones, House, Arroyo, Haslem) that probably shouldn't be in your top 8... Okay then... Other than the obvious deficiencies... Wade looks out-of-sorts... I haven't seen him play this poorly in a long time... shooting only 44% (career 49%), his assists are way down (4 from almost 7), and he seems more hurt than he's letting on... It's amazing to me how many people didn't know the type of player Bosh actually is... his numbers are off from Toronto (they have to be), but his efficiency numbers? Very similar... his per 40 minute numbers? the same... he's not a great rebounder or defender (he's never been these things), and he's been getting killed more than he probably should... Oh... there's Lebron... Forget all the off-the-court stuff (doesn't matter to me)... I believe he needs to 1) Stop fighting the "point guard" role because when Mike Miller comes back? Their best 5 is LBJ/Wade/Miller/Bosh/Dampier aka Lebron is the point guard...and 2) Figure out how to get Wade established in games... We could talk about them all day.. but I'll say this... they'll be much more dangerous at the end of the year than they are now...
- Atlanta (ATL) - I addressed them yesterday (see the menu on the right of this page)... I think they're a 50-win team with a defined ceiling, but they're significantly better than anyone below them on this list...
- Indiana (MIL) - One of the more pleasant surprises in the league... I did have them 7th in my preseason look-ahead, but that was higher than most and Indiana has delivered... Granger is playing well (not surprisingly) but his numbers are even a little down from last year... the addition of Darren Collison (a huge upgrade over what they had in 2009 even without gaudy numbers so far), and the vast improvements from Roy Hibbert (a legitimate force now), and the power forward combo (Hansborough/McRoberts playing half-way decent) can't be overstated...
- Milwaukee (IND) - Disappointing start... I'm not ready to totally bail on the "fear the deer" campaign.. but it hasn't worked out as they'd hoped... John Salmons has killed them (36% shooting, sub-10 PER) so far now that he's been paid, Maggette is shooting 39% from the field, Bogut has been dinged up, and as well as Jennings has played at times, he's still not particularly efficient (39% FG, 35% 3s)... I think most of these numbers (definitely Bogut's) will improve, but it's tough to ignore some questionable fits here, i.e. Maggette playing for Skiles, and the overpayment of Salmons...
- New York (NY) - Hey... they can really score!... Amare is doing Amare things (23 and 9) and looking more comfortable every time I see them (i.e. less jumpers, more attacking).. I've always like Felton, and he's playing pretty much to the max even through fit questions in D'Antoni's offense because he's not a natural pick-n-roll guy... and I kinda like the Chandler/Gallinari combo... Chandler started well and has tailed off, Gallinari started awfully, and has picked it up... so they've off-set a bit.. they don't have a ton of depth, and the Anthony Randolph experiment is looking more downtrodden by the day... but this is an entertaining team, with real playoff chances in a bad East... and while I'm here.. check out my man Landry Fields... the undrafted product from Stanford (who got KILLED coming out of the draft) is producing as a rook...
- New Jersey (WAS) - I'm taking the limb a bit here... in fairness, I think there's a bit of a drop-off after NY... and I like NJ the best... so there... they picked up some real, NBA players on the wing (Morrow & Outlaw) to team with their young foundation in Lopez, Harris, and Favors, and it's done wonders for them... they compete every night, and when they have it going, it's kind of impressive... Harris is playing better than he did at any point last year, and even with Lopez taking a tiny step-back in production this year (down to 18 and 7), they've made up for it... I really like what I'm seeing (admittedly limited) from Favors... only about 19 minutes per thanks to the emergence of Kris Humphries (who's legit btw), but averaging 7 and 6 and has the 3rd highest rookie PER behind Wall and Griffin... if they can get ANYTHING from Terrence Williams (who they just sent to the D-league, sigh) and/or Troy Murphy... could challenge NY...
- Washington (PHI) - Giving them a slight pass b/c of the injury time missed by Wall and Arenas... but it needs to get better soon... Wall has been impressive when he's played (18 & 9 with a league-leading(!) 2.8 steals per) with flashes of complete brilliance... the more and more he improves his jumper, he'll be scary... but Gilbert still isn't very efficient (putting it mildly), Al Thornton is really bad, and Andray Blatche has the worst shot selection (not hyperbolic by the way) of anyone in the entire league... I'm of the belief that they have to move Arenas (duh) but they can't seem to find a taker, and 3 of their top 5 players are still 6'4 guards... Bright spot? Javale McGee is playing very well... 10 and 9 with 2.7 blocks and an elite-level 19.5 PER... he's still erratic and raw at times, but his skillset is crazy, and he's reigning it in a bit...
- Cleveland (CHA) - Okay, Cleveland... I was wrong... You still aren't a playoff team... but I underestimated you... At the same time? I don't understand how you're doing it!... Mo Williams is a nice player... 16 and 5 from your leading scorer though?... Hickson is nice too... 13 and 5... strong... and I love, love, love Varejao... but I don't know how they put the ball in the basket... ESPECIALLY while getting career-worst production from Jamison... but hey... to each his own Cleveland... don't disappoint me...
- Charlotte (NJ) - This is the least interesting team in the league.... not trainwreck-ish enough to cover your eyes (looking at you Toronto), not enough interesting young guys to keep your attention (Sacto/Minnesota)... just an ugly, defense-first team with a coach most people hate, and no one to focus on... I love Gerald Wallace.. he does EVERYTHING on the court from rebounding (8+ per) to playing lock-down D... but if he's your best player?... Not a good sign... their supporting guys have been quietly good... Ty Thomas and DJ Augustin are exceeding expectations, and Captain Jack is still nice... but the Brown/Diop/Mohammed center trio is abysmal and Fat Boris Diaw (how he is always referred to by me) isn't helping matters... say hello to 31-51
- Philly (DET) - Has anyone seen Andre Iguodala? Say Hi to him for me... because he isn't showing up... averaging less than 15 points (as the number option) down from 19-ish for the last 4 years... and generally disappointing... I still like Holiday and Williams in the backcourt... but when your "bright" spot through 20 games is Elton Brand averaging 16 and 8?... ugh... While we're here... Evan Turner STINKS so far... this should be mentioned more... league worst EWA (estimated wins added), an 8.5 PER (Josh Powell territory) and 41% FG, 10% 3s... he's bad... but STILL I don't know why they are as bad as they are... with Brand, Iguodala, Williams, Holliday, Young, Speights, Hawes, and Nocioni... they shouldn't be 13th worst in the East... but they are... and that's putting it nicely..
- Detroit (CLE) - The runner-up to Charlotte for least interesting team... 5 of their best 6 players (Price, Villanueva, Daye, Hamilton, Gordon) are wings... and that doesn't even count number 6 being a combo guard (Stuckey)... how does that work, Joe Dumars?... I'll apologize to Rodney Stuckey who's playing his best basketball of his career (17 and 5 on 46%), but other than that... there's not a whole lot to like... The most maddening thing of all though? Greg Monroe, the #6 overall pick big-man from Georgetown is only playing 16 minutes a night... in favor of rotting corpse Ben Wallace (25 per) and the 6'6 Jason Maxiell (20 per)... if you knew you aren't going to the playoffs, and you're not, put the guy in the game...
- Toronto (TOR) - Probably the least talented roster in the league... and yet I'll be a little positive... they probably should be ahead of Detroit.. 6-11 right now... I just don't see it continuing... their best player is a 7-foot jumpshooter (Bargnani) who can't rebound his way out of a box... their best (really,only) rebounder (Reggie Evans) is out for an extended time with injury, and they traded their best guard (Jarrett Jack) for a young combo guard who, to be kind, does not hesitate to go bombs-away... Their wings are up-and-coming in Derozan (who's been very good) and Weems (underrated), but this season (and probably the next couple) can be blamed on Bryan Colangelo for getting nothing for Bosh, including refusing to take Beasley back, and then spending $34 million on Amir Johnson... it's just a bad roster... and the Toronto basketball fans don't deserve it.. that's a top-5 fan base... alas...
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