Monday, November 29, 2010

The Atlanta Hawks - 1st Quarter

Just because I felt like breaking down the Atlanta Hawks through 1/4 the season... won't go crazy stat-heavy/in-depth because no one cares... but here we go...

POSITIVES
  • Al Horford - The team's best player (take note of that if you didn't know already) has a 6th overall in the league 25.1 PER (player efficiency rating), averaging 16 points and nearly 10 rebounds in just 31.8 minutes per game while shooting a league-leading 60% from the field... Horford is by far the most efficient offensive option on the team, the best 2-way player (above-average defender), and a likely all-star at the 5 in the East (to go along with Dwight Howard and Joakim Noah)... he's good... we know this... more on him later...

  • Josh Smith - I'm a noted Josh Smith "hater"... anyone who reads this blog regularly has noticed this... so when I praise him, he's gotta be playing well... Smith's 22.2 PER leads all Eastern Conference "power" forwards... he's shooting 50% from the field, and has a career high in rebounds per game (9.1) and rebound rate... all while averaging 1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks, and not sacrificing (as much) on on-ball defense to get blocks.... there are certainly negatives (i.e. every SINGLE long 2-point jump shot he takes) that continue to be glaring... but his jump shooting numbers are "better"... 39.1 percent from 3 is unsustainable, and he still shouldn't shoot them, but I'd RATHER have him take 3s that continue to take 18 footers that are a far worse shot (because it's a similar percentage to his 3s)... Overall? Pleased with his performance... somebody just make him stop shooting 18 footers...

  • Larry Drew's Offense - The offensive efficiency numbers are up... the "iso-Joe" offense, while still prevalent occasionally, is far less widespread... and they've made a slight effort (lately at least) to establish Smith and Horford as more primary offensive options... which makes a historic amount of sense since they are, by far, the 2 most productive/efficient offensive players... There's an argument to be made that Joe Johnson can't/won't flourish in this type of offense as he was in the previous regime, but that is more of a Joe Johnson problem than a team issue... I'm a believer that the uptick in ball movement shouldn't hurt Joe if he doesn't let it...

  • Mike Bibby - Hear me out... I've killed Bibby in this space alot... and his limitations are known... He's one of the worst defensive guards in the league (likely the worst on-the-ball), isn't a natural distributor, etc... but he's playing well in Bibby terms... his usage is down this year (a positive), his field goal percentage is up (49% this year, 42% last year), and his PER is a near-league average 14+... There... I didn't kill Mike Bibby...

NEGATIVES

  • Joe Johnson - Lowest scoring average as a Hawk... Lowest field goal percentage since his rookie year... and a general unimpressiveness that has caused several bloggers to openly call for him to lose his all-star status (admittedly QUITE early with this belief)... do I think the "first 20 games" Joe Johnson will represent his season-long output? I don't... but there is something to be said for already experiencing a decline of any sort... I think he'll get back to the 19-20 point per range... but from this point forward, his play can and will never represent "value" for what his cap number and salary indicate... I'm telling you this as much as telling myself to remind myself that there's no need to dwell on this... A positive? His usage rate is down fairly significantly (i.e. goodbye iso-Joe)... and the reports of his demise will likely be premature because of 1) sample size, 2) a potential hand injury holding him back slightly, and 3) a shooting slump that hasn't showed sustainability in his time with Phoenix or Atlanta...

  • Jamal Crawford - Let me say this... I'm not surprised at all... Jamal's 18 PER (highest of his career), 45% FG (highest career), 57% true shooting (highest career), and 23 points per 40 minutes (highest career) from 2009-10 were a highly unrealistic indication of what would happen in 2010-11... I preached this preseason and all throughout Crawford's pining for a new contract (thank God he didn't get one)... Crawford's acquisition from GSW was a fantastic value at the time simply because the Hawks traded absolutely nothing of value for him... he was very good in his "pure scorer" role last year... but nothing more than that, and a SIGNIFICANT population of "Hawks fans" called for letting Joe Johnson go on the basis of Jamal Crawford as an adequate solution... that logic is ludicrous... Jamal Crawford has one discernible NBA skill in that he's a scorer... not a shooter... a scorer... he's a very, very bad defender, he can't run an NBA offense as an on-ball guy, and he's a terrible passer (3 assists a game in 29 minutes).... I'm not going to kill Crawford's play any further simply because I expected it... but it's likely not going to get better as some have said...

  • The Bench composition- The Atlanta Spirit group from the Ownership to the GM to the Head coach combined to think it would be a quality idea to carry the following backup bigs.... Zaza Pachulia, Jason Collins, Etan Thomas, and Josh Powell... yes, that is 3 backup centers and a backup power forward with a career PER around 9 (league average is 15)... It's not the fault of these guys... Zaza is underused in favor of guys he is simply better than... Powell has proven to be below league-average in every single aspect other than he's a pretty good jump shooter for a power forward (i.e. he's abysmal at the rim, a bad rebounder, etc.)... Collins serves exactly one purpose (6 fouls on Dwight Howard, Shaq, etc.)... and Thomas is totally washed-up and likely not rosterable, especially on a team with 3 other centers.... All of this instead of signing an NBA small forward to back up Marvin Williams... Mo Evans is a shooting guard everyone... he's played shooting guard his entire career until Atlanta... he's listed at 6'5 (probably closer to 6'3), and simply can't guard SFs... basically coming together to give him a 5.3 PER which is hilariously bad, mostly because he's playing out of position (and hurt)... and finally, Jeff Teague and Jordan Crawford are both similarly buried... Teague hasn't been good at all, but would provide quickness on the ball defensively that Crawford and Bibby can't... Jordan Crawford has been okay in limited minutes, but can't seem to get on the floor either... I can't help but think out loud that selling a draft pick is STILL not a positive thing... alas...

REST OF THE YEAR

All of that to say... I think the Hawks... are who we thought they were? (Copyright Dennis Green)... 11-7 right now... projects to? 50-32! Pretty much exactly where I had them (49-33) and around where the rest of the league projected them... I'll place a caveat that any injury to Horford and/or Smith would be a death blow to a 50-win course, but this is the life we've chosen... One move I would absolutely make though? Jamal Crawford... Expiring deal... he's not coming back... he's not getting extended... they're not winning anything... if you can flip him for a young asset? I would do it in a heartbeat and give the majority of his minutes to said young asset and Jordan Crawford... Anyway... we're off the rails... Go Hawks...

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